How many Welders are recommended?

I am having mixed feeling about Memory Jar in this list. Its much inferior to the other draw-7, since it can't imprint Chrome Mox, and if you don't draw what you want you lose your hand. Not to mention Null Rod. Would really like to cut it out. Channel?

After a lot of goldfishing, I've revised my list. It is very consistent at comboing. YES, it will have a hard time against countermagic:

4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Rite of Flame
4 Empty the Warrens
4 Goblin Charbelcher
4 Seething Song
1 Lotus Petal
4 Gitaxian Probe
1 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Desperate Ritual
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Jet
2 Mox Opal
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
1 Sol Ring
3 Chrome Mox
1 Wheel of Fortune
1 Memory Jar
4 Reforge the Soul
4 Land Grant
2 Taiga

As you can see it is very similar to the initially proposed list except for an important change in Tinder Wall. I find this card to cause some inconsistent plays for lack of green mana. The slots are better served for Lotus Petal, LED, 4th ESG and 4th Ritual.

Hello!

I've been working on different variations of Belcher and I'm glad to have run into your post, because I had not considered Reforge the Soul yet! After giving it some thought and running some tests, here is the list I have arrived at:

4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Tinder Wall
4 Rite of Flame
4 Empty the Warrens
4 Goblin Charbelcher
4 Seething Song
1 Lotus Petal
4 Gitaxian Probe
1 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Desperate Ritual
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Jet
3 Mox Opal
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
1 Sol Ring
2 Manamorphose
2 Chrome Mox
1 Wheel of Fortune
1 Memory Jar
4 Reforge the Soul
SB: 4 Leyline of Anticipation

Some explanations:

1. As you can see, this is a 0-land Belcher, which I find preferable if we can get away with it! Like I said, I'm playing with different versions. I find that with so many draw-7, might as well go 0-land and maximize the turn 1 combo as well as eliminate the chance to fail the Belcher.

2. 2/3 Chrome/Opal. I feel like Mox Opal is better than Chrome because of the card disadvantage of Chrome. With 3 copies it is extremely rare to run into 2 of them, and even if you do, you can still play both for the storm count. Having 2 Chrome in your hand is just as bad as 2 Opal. So might as well tilt the scale towards the stronger card. Finally, in the untimely event you draw all 3, Opal is strictly better than Chrome in this scenario. I'm sure you have considered different numbers, but this is my view.

3. Sideboard Leyline: 0-land allows us to run Leyline of Anticipation in the side against Stax. This train of thought simply accepts that Stax is a bad matchup. Instead of dedicating the entire sideboard to this match, we use only 4 slots, and we try to combo on the play. If we are on the draw, we sideboard in Leyline and try to win in response to their 1st spell. Or at least we get our moxes into play on their turn if we have a weak hand. This would depend on your metagame. If the meta is Stax heavy then maybe playing Belcher is a bad idea in the 1st place!

4. I am also working without Channel throughout many of my lists, as I find the card to be very circumstantial and more generic things fill the slot better.

5. Manamorphose is here more to fill the slots. It occasionally helps to cast Tinder Wall off red mana.

Questions:
A. No LED? No Petal? Are you sure you can get enough artifacts to tap Opal?
B. What do you think of Faithless Looting?
C. Isn't Desperate Ritual strictly better than Pyretic Ritual?
D. If we are on the play, and we draw Reforge with Gitaxian Probe, can it be played for Miracle cost? Or does the initial hand draw negate Miracle?

Blightsteel Collosus - 12
Artifact Creature - Golemn
Trample, infect
Blightsteel Collosus is indestructible.
If Blightsteel Colossus would be put into a graveyard from anywhere, reveal Blightsteel Colossus and shuffle it into its owner's library instead.

One swing your dead.

Instead of the 1x Inkwell Leviathan ?

Although I hate it: Tarmogoyf ?

You should consider Spell Pierce as a cheap counter.

Really nice thread.

Has anyone considered Goblin Welder in this deck? Especially if your splashing red, he can be both defensive and offensive and occasionally beat for 1 dmg. It's like, if your Time Vault is killed you can bring it back, or you can destroy the opponent's Vault, etc. Just some added resilience to the whole Combo+Control posture.

I hope this doesn't sound too stupid but I have just now started studying Tezzeret deck.

Jotun Grunt looks pretty badass against both Kird Ape and especially Tarmogoyf, test an increase of those to 3 or 4.

I was looking at Larwin and saw this card:

Colfenor's Plans - 2BB
Enchantment
When Colfenor's Plans comes into play, remove the top seven cards of your library from the game face down.
You may look at and play cards removed from the game with Colfenor's Plans.
Skip your draw step.
You can't play more than one spell each turn.

So basically it is a draw 7, and it looks like crap.

But then I thought that it has some synergy with Hellbent. It could be a 1 or 2 of in the Hellbent BR version. Once the deck goes into top-deck mode, you can cast this and draw 7 without actually increasing your hand size. In this situation, the drawback "You can't play more than one spell each turn" doesnt change the game because you were only going to draw and play 1 card each turn anyway. Also, the drawback "Skip your draw step" may not be too bad since you are in the position to finish the match (hellbent + a draw 7).

Anyway, I just thought of that and am mentioning in case its not as crappy as it seems.

@Mr Cheese

Manabase looks shaky

4 Badlands
4 Bloodstained Mire
2 Flooded Strand
4 Plains
4 Swamp

Why Flooded Strand? It cant fetch either swamp or mountain. You need dual land RW or BW, at least one copy so that you can fetch it with Bloodstained Mire and easily have white mana on the 1st turn.

The way it is now there are only 6 ways to fetch white mana, and the flooded strands should probably be cut anyway. Polluted Delta would be much better, but then you need at least 1 copy of the BW dual (cant remember name).

If you prefer Wooded Foothills, id do the following change
-2 Flooded Strand
+1 Wooded Foothills
+1 RW dual (Platou ?)

If you prefer Polluted Delta:
-2 Flooded Strand
+1 Polluted Delta
+1 BW dual ( ? )