The odds of finding Force of Will if you mulligan are higher than that. It's
P(7 cards) + P(6 cards) = 0.399 + 0.3514 = 0.75
P(7 cards) + P(6 cards) = 0.399 + 0.3514 = 0.75
This isn't quite right- you can't simply add the probabilities. You only mulligan to 6 when you don't see Force in the opening 7.
So it should be: P(7 cards) + (1-P(7 cards)) * P(6 cards)= 61.1%
If you can't add probabilities why are you adding P(7) to anything? Under that system 3 P(7)s would yield a probability over 1.
Alright:
P(7 cards) = .399
P(6 cards) = .3514
Probability you don't have a force in the opening grip: 1-P(7)
Probability you don't have a force in the first mull: 1-P(6)
Proability that you don't have a force in either the first seven or six: (1-P(7)) * (1-P(6))
Probability that you have a force in either or both is the composite of this (previous + this = 1.00):
1 - (1-P(7)) * (1-P(6)).
