TheManaDrain.com
December 05, 2025, 10:23:58 am *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
News:
 
  Home Help Search Calendar Login Register  
  Show Posts
Pages: [1]
1  Eternal Formats / Miscellaneous / Re: Probability and Magic on: December 07, 2005, 08:34:06 pm
The odds of finding Force of Will if you mulligan are higher than that.  It's

P(7 cards) + P(6 cards) = 0.399 + 0.3514 = 0.75

This isn't quite right- you can't simply add the probabilities.  You only mulligan to 6 when you don't see Force in the opening 7.

So it should be: P(7 cards) + (1-P(7 cards)) * P(6 cards)= 61.1%

If you can't add probabilities why are you adding P(7) to anything? Under that system 3 P(7)s would yield a probability over 1.

Alright:

P(7 cards) = .399
P(6 cards) = .3514


Probability you don't have a force in the opening grip: 1-P(7)
Probability you don't have a force in the first mull: 1-P(6)

Proability that you don't have a force in either the first seven or six:  (1-P(7)) * (1-P(6))

Probability that you have a force in either or both is the composite of this (previous + this = 1.00):
1 - (1-P(7)) * (1-P(6)).
2  Eternal Formats / Miscellaneous / Re: Probability and Magic on: December 07, 2005, 06:43:41 pm
I'm a bit late in the conversation, but this hasn't been brought up yet. If an event has a 40% probability of occuring, this means that given an incredibly large number of trials, the event will occur in 40% of the trials. 3 is not incredibly large, nor is it even close. We as humans have come to expect such probabilities to be spread out evently, which of course is a highly flawed perception.
3  Eternal Formats / Miscellaneous / Re: [Premium Article] Meandeck Gifts on: July 02, 2005, 05:58:17 pm
That is very helpful. I had figured that the gift cards would vary depending on the conditions of the game, but I was seeing reference to a "combo" gifts, so you cleared that up.

How about the sideboard?

Specifically, which sorcerys would be included as burning wish targets?

I can definately see pyroclasm and of course tendrils, but what else are people using?  Is it simply metagame targets, or are there more standard choices?

Thanks again, you guys have been very helpful!

I personally don't run more than tendrils and pyroclasm for wish targets. Remember that you're not playing keeper here; you don't need an answer to everything in play. The rebuild/echoing truth is already in the mainboard, so you don't need an artifact removal sorcery.
Pages: [1]
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 0.168 seconds with 20 queries.