There are a lot of arguments here.  There are several different factors that are being taken into account.  Here are some of the trends I see.

1)  Arguments around what the correct criterion for restriction are:
   Some people think that metagame dominance is the most important factor.  I do not have the knowhow to asses how dominant a card is, although some people claim to be able to do so.  I am very skeptical of the statistics simply because I while I can read from the posts what the statistics are meant to represent, I have heard little of the theory as to the method for collecting these statistics.  I certainly agree that the possession of statistics is important, but the rate at which these statistics appear as well as the lack of any "scientific community" to critique the methodology involved in gathering them makes me extremely skeptical.  It is one thing to rant off statistics, and entirely another to substantially justify the interpretations of their meaning and more specifically the validity of the methods used in obtaining them.  I tend to be of the opinion that the people who are putting real work into these samplings are really working with the best possible tools that they know of or understand, but the epistemic condition of gathering data on magic seems to put people in a very difficult situation.  The factors that lead to a cards use are many, including but not limited to the use of proxies, the number of proxies allowed, the availability of the cards both financially speaking as well as in terms of rarity, the popularity of the card, deckbuilding decisions, restriction list decisions, etc. etc. etc.  While it may be logically possible to gain a relatively good understanding of the vintage metagame through statistics, the theory seems to be lacking and the possibility for true understanding seems bleak.  There are a plethora of factors and nobody is talking enough about how we would gain insight into what to make of them all.  There cannot be much confidence.  However, magic is a GAME and most of us have things we either need or want to be doing more rather than trying to attain the perfect scientific theory for how to mathematize magic.  Many thanks to the brave souls who have tried this but I tend to take the stats with a grain of salt.  The best laughs come from the theories we come up with that are very complicated... (first you take the percentage of top eight appearances, and compare that to the total percentage of the field, divide by the number of tournament victories, subtract 5 if the card is unrestricted, add 6 if there are at least 20 other restricted cards in the deck, multiply by the natural log of the number of wins... you get my point).  While dominance may be a factor... I cant say that I really buy the theory given that I feel like there must be at least as many force of will as there are drains, and I still don't believe that the fact that there where very few Channel means that it should be unrestricted nor do I think the game would be more fun without force of will.  Dominance is only one factor.
   Another criterion is fun.  Some cards just make the game less interesting (3sphere), in most peoples opinion.  I personally like to play against stacks although if 3sphere where unrestricted I might not like it so much.  That obviously must be taken into account.  Some people like to play certain matchups or decks or spells or combos and there is no guarantee that one will be anyones favorite.  I think ritual will stay off the list forever for this reason.  Its just more fun to have them in the format (I understand they are not considered dominant, but go to CO for a week or two, where most of the best players just LIKE to play storm...), because people who play vintage like to have 10000 mana floating into a draw seven and they like to Necropotence for 14 etc.  Maybe not all of them.  Some like to wait on a kill card behind 4 sphere of resistance.  Some just like to stifle lands or try to guess the right card with meddling mage or cabal therapy.  Not everyone will be happy with each restriction but fun is a MAJOR if not the most important factor for the average vintage player.  Drains are not 1st turn 3sphere, which nobody could really have thought was that fun besides the guy winning with it.  This too has its limits.  A stax guy against lotus lions eye ritual demonic tutor doesn't get to play his first turn either, but storm is not under the microscope now so nobody really cares, and this takes 4 cards to ruin his day instead of 1.  The point is that wizards knows that FUN is what they sell and the restriction of Mana Drain will probably be decided more on whether or not it is fun than on anything else.  While it is not the most fun card in history (see eye of the storm), it is definitely not a card that makes everyone want to tear up their cards all the time because it FEELS unfair or whatever it takes.  Force spike and Daze piss me off royally, but they are somehow still not the same as some other really unfun stuff like flash on my upkeep.  Yes, fun is SUBJECTIVE and people will argue about it based on their feelings about a card/metagame/etc. in spite of any hard facts or claim to hard facts anyone will ever make.  The dci could ban anything but some people think shops, rituals and drains are fun and some people would rather see everything banned until the only viable deck is 2 land belcher (if this is possible) simply because different things make them have fun.
   The third criterion is metagame.  This is highly dependent on location and is not extremely stable with new printings and so on.  The complexity of Magic makes this very hard to predict, which gives me cause to reiterate our poor epistemic state with regards to the "Truth" about the metagame.  There is probably just too much for us to know.  We might have this really strong gut feeling, but the kind of knowledge we have about phenomenon like metagames is not nearly as certain as many things we think we understand, and is a long way off from 2+2=4.  The gut feelings we have MAKE magic fun because it causes us to play different decks from each other (I have this gut feeling that today is the day to play platinum angel as my tinker target), which are never truly varified because we don't know if they guy just got lucky (avoided all the bounce) or if that specific arrangement is optimal (another word we use to fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we do).  It is WOTCs job to keep us in the dark about this by changing things faster than we can figure them out, because whenever we figure them out we get bored (I have a gut feeling affinity with skullclamp is the only way I can win a game today because everyone is playing it and nobody can beat it).  It is more fun to not understand the metagame... in fact it is what keeps us interested.  None of us, nor anyone at WOTC has the time or the mental capacity to predict what will take place on dominaria all the time, but while Mana Drain seems to be all over the place... what we really need to ask ourselves is whether or not mana drain is the only thing we feel like we can win with, because the point is to create diversity through leaving everyone with a lack of information.

Another major topic is this:

Some people think that people are using this blog, or blogs in general, to influence the metagame toward what they think is fun.  This is likely true and is a phenomenon that extends far beyond magic.  The people with the resources to invest in something tend to call a disproportionate number of the shots.  This can be good or bad.  Without getting into the political theory, let me simply remind everyone that there are plenty of ways to avoid this... for example playing by house rules (we all go to proxy tournaments after all, why not tournaments where mana drain is restricted, yagmoths will banned, crop rotation HAS to be a 4 of... hell, get creative and stop letting Other people tell you what magic is to you and your community, if everyone in your store hates drains just hold an unsanctioned tournament where they are banned). For those that want to play by the common language of Vintage rules, suck it up and accept the fact that you have to agree that maybe they are less fun to you than you wished or be like the guys who post all day and night and try to get things changed... Just don't lose sight of the fact that your experience with this game is really what you make of it.  Many casual formats have become more or less staples in the community, whether or not they are sanctioned.  I can play EDH in almost every city now, why not modified vintage?

Thats all I can write but just to throw it out there... the restriction of Mana Drain is a matter of FUN... and I personally think its fun to have mana drains and I don't think I am so important or knowledgeable as to tell anyone else whether it is fun to them... so I will try to throw this out there... why not get off our high horse for a while and suggest that we um... I don't know... VOTE?!?

Instead of letting some private interest groups tell us what to do with the cardboard we spent good money on, why not convince them to let us vote on the restricted list and if they decline... perhaps we should question whether or not they are really looking out for the players of vintage anyway and hold our own vote so we can take the game back to where it belongs... in our communities for the enjoyment of the players.

I vote no.

Hello all its Matthew Guzzo and I wanted to say that the magic sux out here pretty bad but I have an idea based on one of the new cards and maybe you guys could check it out with me.  Email me at guzzo.matthew@colorado.edu or call at 720-435-6913.

I was wondering if there is anywhere to play near Charleston, where I will soon be moving in order to take A school for the Navy.  I am going to be there for 2 years (nuclear propulsion), so I wonder if it is time to give up Magic for a few years or if there is any place to play.  I really can say that I enjoy any format, from casual to vintage to standard to limited of any kind etc.  Thanks all

A bit from Leibniz... I remembered this from philosophy classes and somehow I think it is relevant in terms of clarifying the concepts.  Before anyone jumps all over the theistic connotations I suggest that they understand enough Liebniz that the notion of "GOD" from his point of view is at least differentiated from anthropomorphic ideas.  I suggest the Monadology as a starting point for this.

Leibniz writes, of truth and proportion simultaneously, as follows:


"  The source (origo) of contingent truths in an infinite progression, on analogy with the proportion between incommensurable quantities:

                 TRUTH                                    Proportion

                                     is containment

                                            __
Of the predicate in the                         of a smaller quantity in a larger
subject.                                               or of an equal in an equal.

                                    It is shown by

Giving reason (for the            ___         displaying the relation
truth)                                _____      (of the numbers)

                               Through the analysis of both
                               terms into common

notions.                           ______      quantities.

                              This analysis is either
                            finite or infinite.  If it is
                             finite, it is said to be

a demonstration, and the     ______    the discovery of a common measure
truth is necessary,               _______  or an commensuration, and the
                                                       proportion is expressible (effabilis)

                              for it is reduced to

identical truths,             ___________       congruence with respect to the
                                                            same repeated measure,

                        that is, to the primary principle

of contradiction or identity.   _______        of equality of those things
                                                             which are congruent.

                     but if the analysis proceeds to infinity
                       and never attains completion then

the truth is contingent,          _____        the proportion is unexpressible, one
one which involves an            _____          which has an infinite number of
infinite number of reasons       ______         quotients,

                       But in such a way that there is always
                        something that remains,

for which we must, again,      ---------          a new remainder that furnishes a
give some reason.               _______          new quotient.

                          Moreover, the analysis continued
                            yields an infinite series

which, however, is known   ________       about which geometry knows
perfectly by God.              _________       many things.

                                      And this is
knowledge by intution,        ______         the doctrine of irrational numbers,
(scientia visionis),               _______         like what is contained in book 10
                                                            of the Elements (of Euclid),

                                 which is distinct

from knowledge of simple         ____      from common arihmetic.
understanding (scientia simplicis  ____
intelligentiae).                       _______

                          However, neither is experiential but
                       both are a priori infallibles, and known
                         each according to its kind

through certain reasons              --------      through necessary demonstrations
evident to God, who alone          --------       known to geometry. However, they cannot
comprehends the infinite.             --------      be captured by expressible numbers,
However, they are not neccessary,  --------

                                  for it is impossible
to give demonstrations     ---------------          for irrational proportions to be understood
of contingent truths.        --------------           arithmetically, that is, they cannot be
                                                             explained through the repetition of a measure."



The difference between matters of truth and proportion divide the stats guys from the DCI, who seem to be practicing a deontilogical ethics, drawing a line they believe they cannot cross.

Anyway, the man invented integral calculus and was a great philosopher to boot, this would have been up his alley.

As a long player I tend to think that contrary to normal belief, long has a great capability to come from behind.  Where other decks that attempt to win attrition wars or lock out opponents, combo only has to get it together once.  What I find remarkable is the way in which the trend seems to be away from the draw sevens/necro/bargain/gifts and towards ponder while everyone seems to be complaining about how they are losing to the superior card advantage of the gush engine.  In my opinion, long should try to win before gush outdraws them too significantly.  What hinders this is a tendancy I have noticed with long players where they want the win to be a sure thing, and therefore play ponder to "search" instead of Wheel of Fortune to explode into wins.  Of course everybody hates when the draw seven leaves you with crap... but I hate to have to ponder... it feels like cycling.  I have to pay a blue mana, perhaps the hardest resource to come by in the deck, in order to grab a better card when I could have played a better card in the first place.  What ponder long is really searching for is Yagmoth's will, because it is the only way to build  large enough storm count without more explosive spells like wheel/jar/twister/gifts.  The dependancy on this card cripples many newer long players.  Sure draw sevens fill your opponents hand... but the only card I care about is force of will, and if I play 6-7 duress I have the odds.  If I can win with my starting 7 why not the next seven with some mana floating.  Sure this is a risk, you could mana burn for crying out loud... but mostly what I'm seeing is players who come from standard or extended and don't realize that casting brainstorm on their turn is a good idea because they do not believe that the card quality can take them to the win right now when it can.  Ponder players for the most part are too conservative, and long is a deck about taking the right kind of risks when winning isn't a sure thing and giving yourself a chance to make the right plays.  There is no stax like wins with long where it is a complete lockdown of your opponent and you sense victory 10 turns in advance.  Long is about skating the edge and being good at math and counting and practicing.

I cannot figure out how to post this to the tournament forum so I decided to post to this forum and hope the moderator's move the post.  I apologize for my ineptitude.



Here is the list I played:

4x Duress
4x Brainstorm
4x FOW
4x Dark Ritual
4x Polluted Delta
2x Bloodstained Mire
2x Underground Sea
2x Thoughtseize
2x Island
1x Swamp
1x Volcanic Island
1x Badlands
1x Black Lotus
1x Lotus Petal
1x Tendrils of Agony
1x Mana Crypt
1x Necropotence
1x Mox Ruby
1x Mox Sapphire
1x Mox Jet
1x Yawgmoth's Bargain
1x Vamp Tutor
1x Hurkyl's Recall
1x Time Walk
1x Mystical Tutor
1x Recoup
1x Cabal Ritual
1x Ponder
1x Demonic Tutor
1x Memory Jar
1x Burning Wish
1x Yawgmoth's Will
1x Sol Ring
1x Time Twister
1x Wheel of Fortune
1x Darksteel Colossus
1x Mana Vault
1x Ancestral Recall
1x Lion's Eye Diamond
1x Tinker
1x Gifts Ungiven


SIDEBOARD
1x Tendrils of Agony
3x Tormod's Crypt
2x Offalsnout
1x Empty the Warrens
3x Mystic Remora
1x Hurkyl's Recall
2x Rebuild
2x Misdirection


Round 1

MUD Agro...

The first game he wins the die roll and starts the game with sphere of resistance off ancient tomb.  I groan to myself but I try a few things... I get off brainstorm and find a mana crypt so I can do stuff.  He's beating me down with a factory for a while when I burning wish for Empty the Warrens, not realizing that his life is at 9 and he has a mana crypt, and only the factory for beats... Tendrills wins more than likely as I have 2 dark rituals so I can get it off through sphere.  He draws wasteland and I get buried as he hits my only red source and I have no plays.  I kick myself because I could have wished for Tendrills, but he points out that he could hit my underground in that case and there was no way to win.

Game 2
+1 Hurkyl's
+ 2 Rebuild
+1 Empty the Warrens
+1 Tendrils of Agony
-1 gifts ungiven
-1 Recoup
-1 burning wish
-1 ponder
-1 wheel of fortune

Game 2 I start with thoughtseize and see his pair of metal workers and only the workshop for mana, plus 2 trisks which I only realize are the same card after asking as they have 2 different pics.  I take metalworker, counter the other with force of will, and make short work of him with tendrills off a mystical tutor for yag will.


Game 3
I have rebuild and brainstorm and blue so I keep my hand.  I manage to see no gas the whole game, and he beats me to 4 with factory, as he only has waste and factory and can't play any spells., I hurkyls and rebuild twice to keep the factory from killing me, and with one minute left I drop memory jar.  I decide to go off the turn when time is called and I break the jar into a crap hand with no tutors.  I drop Lotus petal, brainstorm into land, and then a lions eye, ponder into brainstorm after shuffling, then brainstorm with only a volcanic island untapped, braking the lions eye in response for 3 black hoping to hit tendrills or empty to tie or maybe win.  I luck out and hit empty the warrens, 12 dudes and 2 attack steps later I win the game.


ROUND 2
Carl With MUD STAFF STACKS

Game one the quick Jugg and trisk combined with tangle wire jack my life up, and I goof up and tap a dual land to tangle instead of a fetch when I'm at four, and while I draw the win with will, I can't play it because trisk has 3 counters and I need to sack the fetch to cast will.  I scoop

Out
1 Ponder
1 Burning Wish
1 Gifts
1 Recoup

In
1 Empty
1 hurky's
2 Rebuild


On the play I start with a Mana Crypt, a Saphire, a Black Lotus, a Ruby, 2 Rebuild and 1 Tinker.  I get to jar with storm 100000 so I play out my hand, pick it up, play it out, pick it up, play it out and then tinker the ruby for jar with 3 red floating.  I break the jar and find no real gas, I drop a fetch and a sol ring then burn for 2.  I hate draw sevens!  He plays a metalworker and passes.  Next turn I draw wheel of fortune and find will, storm 100000 tendrills.  I love draw sevens!!

Game 3

I force of will a sphere, then turn 2 tinker for DSC.  He slows me down with tangle wire but I keep playing land and He takes 11 twice and dies.


Round 3
Pierce with Long

The first game he wins the attrition war with Confidant in the maindeck, and the game state where duress happens 4 times plus random force of wills always goes to the guy with bobs

Out
1 burning wish
1 time twister
1 wheel of fortune
1 ponder
1 hurkyl's recall
1 recoup
1 cabal ritual
1 Bargain

In
2 misdirections
3 mystic remora's
3 Tormods crypt

I Brainstorm into FOW and relax a turn.  He tries to case Bob but I counter it.  The attrition war goes on for a while and I play mystic remora after a second force of will on demonic tutor.  He lets me have a bunch of time in which I keep drawing crypts and sol rings etc. and remora sticks forever.  He decides to try to go off because I only have 2 FOW left and he's feeling the pressure of my building hand... pretty much all rituals at this point.  He plays like 11 spells, and I draw 2 fow and 2 brainstorm, plus a time walk.  He duresses me so I Brainstorm to put back 2 fow after remora triggers.  I he hits brainstorm then tries to cast will.  I draw FOW and hardcounter into his FOW, which triggers Remora and I pitch time walk to counter the force.  GG next turn with my 10 cards or whatever it was.


Game 3

Atrittion going his way as 2 Bobs get down early via mana crypt and whatnot.  I don't have enough to tendrills him out, although tendrills is in hand, and he tutors for will so I Demonic for Crypt and tendrills him to 6 with crypt and 2 bobs in play.  He manages to mystical into brainstorm and draws another to make his way through the next couple of turns after chain of vapor on his own mana crypt and 1 bob.  He plays a memory jar and I'm in trouble, but he is at one life with a bob and I play my own jar.  He breaks the jar on upkeep in response to bob.  He brainstorms, which resolves, then I Jar for the win if the card costs any mana.  He flips swamp and kills me.  Memorable game.


Round 4
Lou with Long

Scary to face the mirror match against the mastermind, and Lou starts us off with his usual shit talking.

He wins game one after ancestrall pulls him through the attrition.

Same sideboard as last round

Game 2

I bust up the hand with duress and will into the win.

Game 3

Lou has got me next turn as he just tutored for Yagwill after mad attrition, but I draw and play bargain at 17 life.  After taking like 10 cards, I duress him to find force, 2 exterpate (SURPRISE!) and yag will of course.  I think that I need to take force as I may not be able to tutor for will as he can shuffle my deck.  I have a crypt so I play it and keep drawing cards,  I mystical and he shuffles me taking my brainstorms.  I need to spend the 3 black from my lions eye so I drop necro and pass at 1 life Memory Jar in hand.  He tries to duress but I force the hard way.  Next turn I play jar, remora remora and pass, crypt the grave on his turn and win with DT next turn.


Round 5
Brennan with stacks

Intentional Draw.


TOP 8

Round 1 Travis the champ with Mana Ichorid

I hate this matchup but I win the die roll.
I play first turn jet, timetwister off Black lotus and drop a land, draw ritual vamp tutor tinker and go get DSC using the black extra for Vamp tutor.  I put the timewalk on top.  He plays bazzar, discards a dredge guy and congradulates me on my good play.

Out
4x Duress
2x Thoughtseize

In
3 Tormod's crypt
2 Offalsnout
1 Empty the Warrens


He plays a cephalid colluseum and unmasks his own golgari thug.

I play turn 1 tormods and empty for 8 tokens

He has no yard and passes.  I attack pass

He unmasks a grave troll which I offalsnout.

Attack

He draws and passes.  Attack. On to top 4


ROUND 2

Connely with BWG fish.

Never Quite seen this kind of deck so I don't know what to expect, but its aggro so I want to play it out.

I win the die roll and duress his Black Lotus, his only mana source besides wasteland.  He has Jotun Grunt x2, Goyf and some other stuff I can't remember.  He wastes my land and then can't draw mana until I tinker.  He say's he needs "runner runner" so I know he needs a white and a swords.  He draws a fetch and gets a white source, and I am relieved that he only found the easy part.  DSC attacks twice before he does anything.

In
1x Tendrills
1x Empty the Warrens
2x Misdirection

Out
1x Hurkyl's
1x Burning Wish
1x ponder
1x cabal ritual

I open with turn one sapphire mox tutor for lotus necro for 14.  I draw 3 FOWS and tendrills, brainstorm and some other stuff.  I tendrills him for like 16 on the next turn and draw again, countering everything in the meantime.  He makes a comment about how i got necro time walk and passed the turn 3 times before he dies but he gets shut off and recoup tendrills finishes him after crypt for storm 3.

Finals
Brett with Ichorid

We decide to play it out.  He wins the die roll and keeps after removing a serum hand.  I mull to 6 and keep an explosive hand with gifts, and he drops leyline.  Can't do much with gifts now so I lose in short order.

Same sideboard choice as Ichorid match above.

I Brainstorm into time twister in hand so I pass.

He plays bazzar so I twist after his dredger goes to yard on my next turn.

He taps and discards another dredger, Golgari thug.

I have to hurry so I play wheel of fortune hoping he will get greedy and then I can find tormod's.  He tries to get greedy but can only dredge twice and then draws 5... I find crypt and curse the gods.  I hit his graveyard at the end of his next turn after he activates bizzar and gets 2 narcos with ichorid in play.  He plays a dryad arbor.  Nothing to dread return... good for me.  He is running out of gas and I play a second crypt.  I think I have him so I DT for yagmoth's will and pass.  He then cabal therapy for will and Unmask taking the empty that was in my hand.  I lose to flying narcos and an arbor pair.

(SIDE NOTE)  Should have DT'd for mystical tutor, in which case I would have been able to get will next turn and win.

Second place gets a dual land and Brett wins a mox.  Fun day regardless.



Props
Carl-  Cool New store

Bob Yueh - For your suggestions with the deck and all your advice, and for being the most consistantly good vintage player I have met.

Becca-  For supporting my decision not to split just so I could live the dream and play for the mox and for not getting to upset that we got nothing much out of the tournament.

Brennan-  For making top 8 and for all the playtests

Lou- for making Trevor smile

Connely- for playing the most rogue thing I've seen in a long time into the top 4


Slops

Me- for not taking the split

Bob-  For calling me your apprentice, not remembering that I have beaten you in tournaments that were held in the 90s.


Thanks all

Ill get mine up tonight.

I always wondered whether mystic remora could be good in a long build.  It doesn't help you storm, but it might be good in the sideboard for the mirror match to help find FOW or just to force them to kill on turn 1/2 or give you the game.  The opponent must think twice about the setting up they do.  I also think it could be good against stacks/GAT or anything that plays a lot of non-creature spells... pretty much everything.  Hell if it cycles for one its good, if it buys you a turn its good, and if it actually draws you cards its good.  Some people talked about using it with EON HUB in order to never pay upkeep... probably as good as necro if you do that!  One mana to stall/draw seems okay.  The upkeep sucks but perhaps a deck like landstill could do it as a second Standstill.

Any thoughts?

I'm not really in such bad need of gifts wins.  The gifts is nice and I have the mana (Vault, Crypt, Sol Ring, etc), but the gifts strategy tends to win the longer games as you have suggested.  I opted for only 2 bobs and the inclusion of the Bargain.  I would think that in the non-gifts dependant hands, my goldfish may be faster, as I am playing all the bombs... Wheel, Twist, Necro, etc.  I had no intuition that day... so I really wasn't playing that deck...
The real difference was you played more duress effects (which is why I think you won), and you also played the ponder.  I was sure wishing I had at least put more duress in the side.
Question for the forum...
Why the ponders over the more bomb like draw sevens or the more selective grim versions?  Is this a decision made due to the increasing amount of stacks builds?  I tend to think that a new seven will be just as good as a starting seven, and I don't like the pay one to cycle into a bomb when I could just draw one... whats the deal with ponder.  I trust that it is a good card, and i trust that many of you are good players and have a way of explaining this to me.

Nice slops on my deck.   Given the fact that we have played two games... you were a bit cocky with what you said.  I could have drawn identical hands... not sure why you are so confident in your decks absolute superiority... but congrats on the win and fun match

I enjoyed the idea although I have not tested it yet.  I am not sure that i agree that the helms are necessarily bad.  I can see the way in which they fuel the clamp/moonvessel mana+card engine.  The thing about it is there is little to no disruption.  This might be okay if you can be sure you can be fast enough.  I think trying to push the speed upward is definately a good thing.  I like the idea of mixing affinity with storm combo because it allows you to play 2 different strategies at the same time and forces your opponent to play against both.  The storm can get stifled or otherwise disrupted without hurting the creature assault and vice versa.  The storm set up seems weaker than it needs to be.    For one, it may be hard to get enough black mana to hit a turn with yag-will, tutor, and then tendrills.  You are probably going to outdraw almost everybody, and that can be good against decks like GAT, which seems like a good match for you.  You may even be able to race ichorid style decks and play more creatures.  I would up the helms to 4 at the cost of the time spiral and a disciple, I would replace some land for the missing moxen which are better for storm and I would take out the other disciples for a dark ritual, a cabal ritual, and a lions eye diamond.  If you want to keep more disciples maybe get rid of a ravager, a frogmite, or whatever, maybe even land, which might be too many.  The storm combo is a great way to win.  You may also consider trying to add mystical tutor for better combo finding.   I'm definately gonna try this one.

Look people, if a card says- I win and only costs 4 mana, the fact that it doesn't always work is not an arguement against.  What is happening on this post is a bunch of people who have not triied thee thing shooting it down on theory.  The effect is amazing if you have the right circumstance and I would like serious discussion rather than simple knee jerk reactions to a burn spells being good in vintage.  I have played enough magic to know that with the right kind of set up a lot of thigs really work well.

The theory to use, particularly in vintage, is the theory about how many cards it takes to prevent something/do something vs. how many cards it takes to stop that same thing.

A person has a roughly 48 to 49 percent chance of drawing a card in thier opening seven cards.  This means that for each sideboard card, it will show up about half the time in the early game.  However, some sideboard cards require that there be more than one card necessary to deal with them.  In the dredge example, we can still like the leyline because the dredge decks are dependant on the 1, the mana source, 2 the enchantment hate, and 3 the bazzar in order to beat you, unless you are playing a slower deck in which they can dredge one turn at a time.  This may be the case, but considering the amount of mana these decks play, it is quite reasonable to say that given that you have drawn leyline to start, they have low odds of dealing with it on the next turn.  You only need the leyline while they need 2 cards to get rid of it.  The decks that play dryad arbor have a higher chance of fighting off the leyline because they have more green mana, but there is little that can talk me out of leyline.

This theory can be applied to force of will in a similar way.  When compared to counterspell, force of will is more card efficient in a limited context.  In order to counter a spell with force of will, it is only necessary to have one other card in hand, while it is necessary to have 2 blue sources for a counterspell (ignore the fact that this mana must be untapped which is an additional disadvantage of counterspell).  Force of will actually costs less resources, and probably less important resources to boot, which is why it has become the counterspell of choice, even in attrition wars where mana is quite valuable.

The major problem with many decks is their inability to function without the cards working in tandem.  Decks are much better when the cards all play strong rolls on thier own than when the cards are highly specialized.

I have been playing a URB fish build for a while now and have consistently beaten stax with this deck.
The major disadvantage of stax is that many of the prison cards are symetrical and stax depends on Workshop/ancient tomb/tolarian acedemy to boost the mana to get around this fact.

The deck is therefore hurt tremendously by wastelands and often finds itself locked by its own cards if a shaman/waste attack takes out a few peices of mana.

What decks will do is not concede to the lock if they are holding or can get acess to wastelands, thereby forcing stax into a situation where they need to either sacrafice their smokestack because there are zero permanents on opposing side or sac their own lock peices to the smokestack in order to get themselves out of the same lock.

This occasionally happens with oath, long, and gifts...
Stax does not have enough damage or enough draw to consistently get out of its own lock if opponents focus on mana denial.  Decks can often wait for Hurkle's Recall or shattering spree, or even a single chain of vapors or echoing truth to get the turn they need to play a threat that stax cannot deal with.

Stax is a wonderful deck and has historically been very good.  Its weaknesses are the facts that a.  It can get slaughtered if it is forced to play second and cannot respond to its opponents first turn, b.  it has to wait out a smokestack to get rid of permanents... which can be long and difficult... and c.  it has a terrible time with wasteland/welder... the most common cards in current fish builds.