I would say that you want to have a strong mid-late game in some decks, without sacrificing the early game too much. The main problem with this card is that it is pretty bad in the opening hand. Much worse than fact/gifts/jace/impulse.

This card saw no play when it was named Wild Guess and it will see no play now.
 
Dangerous Wager does look worse and worse with every new red card printed though, huh?

I'm not sure I'm a nay-sayer as much as I am mildly skeptical, but I think you misinterpret the comparison.  By and large the only cards we use in Vintage for drawing and tutoring cards are restricted or named Gush or Impulse.  So any card that tutors or draws is going to be compared to them; the price of admission in Vintage is being better than these existing options in some reasonable circumstance.

Well, hello to you too, good sir.  Nice to meet you.

Anyway, the proof is in the pudding.  So, if you have faith in these cards, brew with it and prove everyone wrong.  It's not like anyone here will argue with actual results.  Heck, with Vintage being online, the data should flow like water and we'll know in a few months whether these cards work or not.

That being said, yes, this card draws you the best two of your top four.  It's a tutor with card advantage.  Sure.  And you bring up one situation in which you WOULD rather have this than Demonic: you need to get both a win condition and a counterspell to back it up.  That's fair.  I'm not sure that that alone is enough to warrant replacing your tutor with this, since you can't use it early game, but it's an answer to the question.

New Ancestral
U
Sorcery

As an Additional cost to play New Ancestral, remove your graveyard.
Draw 3 cards.
You cannot play New Ancestral in the first three turns. You cannot play New Ancestral if you played a New Ancestral card in the last two turns.

I think this is pretty close to what the card does - not talking about tiny differences and the occasional first turn that could enable it. I helps me understand the card better, and I think I'd almost never play such a card in any of my decks. If you factor in that the real card might be even more restrictive than just "wait three turns" .... I don't see it.

I think this is absolutely the correct question to ask.  Is this card actually better than a tutor effect? 

Fact or Fiction, as a semi-tutor, never gets cheaper than U3.  So it's easy to construct a late-game situation where Dig is superior because it only costs UU and even potentially avoids shop lock pieces.  That's trivial to explain away.

But I still don't see any compelling reason why Dig -- on it's best day, when the yard is full of chaff -- is really better than tutors.  The only edge it has over Demonic is that it is instant speed.  The only edge it has over Vampiric and Mystical is that you get the card right away, but since you can do this right before you draw anyway, that's just paying U to draw a card on top of the tutor.  I think you have a harder time justifying running Dig over these cards that you're giving credit for.

Assuming you can't really explain why you would cut tutors for Dig, the next question is whether you run both.  Is there a deck out there that would really want that kind of effect badly enough to add a fourth or fifth conditional tutor like that?

has tombstalker seen vintage play?  No.  But it does see play in Legacy, and it is used primarily in black delver variants to get the edge over delver decks that don't run tombstalker.  So if the metagame continues to shift to more creature based decks in vintage, Tombstalker seems reasonable.  

Dig through Time also seems reasonable.  I'm not sure if it's good, but it certainly is powerful if you can cast it.  

That's the thing.  These are potentially late-game mega bombs the same way that Ancestral Recall and Demonic Tutor are, but they're constructed in a way that makes them unable to function in the early game.  We're all wrestling with whether that makes them playable or not.

Is this really that good? Sure, drawing 3 cards is nice and all but this completely takes you away from Yawg Will late game. I'm not sure I'd give up Will in order to draw 3 cards, when Will can often let you do just that by reusing everything.

Yep.  That's ONE benefit of 'devaluing' cards.  The other benefit is that the barrier to entry would fall, so that: 6 person tournaments become 20, 16 becomes 40, and 50 becomes 200.

I mean, I'm in favor of having greater attendance and less theft.  Do you have some other priorities?

For what it's worth, I think this is an additional avenue of leverage on the Reserve list, and the general unstated policy of not-reprinting to reduce card value.  (Even Modern Masters has been described as a quite limited print run testing the waters for additional reprintings.)

Players have the right to tell large tournament organizers (SCG) and WotC that they're not willing to risk their safety or financial well-being to play a game.

Yes, the cards have always been meant to be collectible, but people are getting hurt and people are losing tens of thousands of dollars.  Why does that have a place in our game?

No ring of organized thieves is salivating over the chance to steal chess pieces.

Wah wah waaaah.

New Slivers are just kind of a slap in the biscuits, aren't they.  They don't look like old Slivers, they don't act like old Slivers... the only thing that makes them Slivers is their creature type.  I'm all for innovation but Slivers work on certain principles.  This makes them identical to every other modern tribe ever, except they exist in too many colors.

You cut the Pact/ESG package when the ETW package comes in, since both are horrendous for your storm count.  In fact, for future brews I would place much less reliance on Summoner's Pact as a method of fixing your mana if you want to include Empty the Warrens in your maindeck.

Flash was largely irrelevant, as I drew it once after I had already mulliganed to oblivion.  I can't say for certain if it was good or not, but having the 4th Gitaxian Probe is a reasonable consideration.

The deck does want the 4th Informer and wants the 2nd Cabal Therapy, but it also wants to pack Force of Will as a way of fighting disruption.  As much as I want Mental Misstep to be relevant it simply isn't.

DON'T PLAY THIS DECK EVER, but if I configured it with the knowledge I now have, I'd run this maindeck:

4 Balustrade Spy
4 Undercity Informer

4 Narcomoeba
1 Angel of Glory's Rise
1 Bridge from Below
1 Dread Return
1 Fiend Hunter
1 Wild Cantor

4 Force of Will
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Pact of Negation
2 Cabal Therapy
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Flash

4 Chrome Mox
4 Dark Ritual
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
3 Cabal Ritual
1 Black Lotus
1 Lotus Petal
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Opal
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Simian Spirit Guide
1 Sol Ring

Yeah, I'm with Duck here.  This is a fine card, but it seems like just another in a long line of awesome 2U fliers that see no play. We got:

Serendib Efreet
Sea Drake
Esperzoa
Fettergeist
Illusory Angel

All of these are good.  Esperzoa seems the best right now, since it dodges Thorn and Golem, can tinker and be tinkered, and potentially generates mana.  One of my favorite things to do is run a Grixis fish deck that has Tangle Wire.  Set up your upkeep stack like: Tap->Bounce->Fading, so you Fade, then bounce the Wire, then tap 3.  Hopefully you can replay the Wire and keep your opponent stuck under maximum wire-age.  If you have Hex Parasite at the party too, then you can avoid tapping anything. 

Anyway, Illusory Angel seems fine, but there are times you won't be able to cast it.  When you do, it's just a beat stick.  All said and done, I just don't see how it gets there if its competition does not.

Cavern of Souls naming ... Fungus ... no ... Demon ... no no ... FUNGUS.

Yeah, I noticed that when I started building the deck to test.  I had a long testing session today and it didn't really go anywhere so I didn't update the list.  I ended up with one Welder being a good number and Izzet Charm being pretty bad.  In the end, it ended up just being another typical blue deck once the Charms got cut and the Welders trimmed to one.  If I was playing against a bunch of two toughness creatures or 4 Jace decks all day, Izzet Charm would be better.  Taxing a 4 mana spell is pretty good and having 4 removal spells against Fish is good but the deck sucked against Shops and other blue decks.  I didn't play against Oath but I imagine it's not very good with 4 Welders and 4 Flusterstorm with no way to remove a resolved Oath.  With Vault-Key cut, you can't even goldfish them.