I loves me some combinatorial math as much as the next man, but in my experience it is one of those things that ends up becoming a crutch to a lot of players. While it makes sense from a deckbuilding perspective to have a good idea about maximising your percentages (clearly at it's best in a comparatively linear combo deck), I've seen way too many perfectly good players allow the math to put them on tilt.

Knowing the chances of things going wrong are very low is psychologically setting yourself up to feel even worse when they do with surprising frequency.