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1  Eternal Formats / Creative / Re: Rogues 2k14 on: January 15, 2016, 02:43:55 pm
The viability of this deck is a function of how popular decks like Oath and Storm are, because the primary focus of this deck is to land an Earwig Squad (often uncounterable) and just neuter their gameplan of finding one of their 2-3 win conditions.

I'd focus on playing black discard spells like Thoughtseize to augment the creatures and the blue countermagic.

2  Eternal Formats / General Strategy Discussion / Re: [OGW] Thought-Knot Seer on: January 15, 2016, 02:42:06 pm
I don't play much Vintage anymore, but all I know is, this guy is in-sane in Modern and Legacy. I think he's *better* than Vendilion Clique in a vacuum, and in the Eldrazi decks with the all of the cost-reducing lands he's borderline broken.

I'll be playing the hell out of this card in Modern and Legacy until something gets banned. I wouldn't be surprised if you could play Eldrazi.dec in Vintage as well.
3  Eternal Formats / General Strategy Discussion / Re: [OGW] Jori En, Ruin Diver on: December 29, 2015, 05:44:54 pm
Big difference between a blue card with a 1UR mana cost and a a green card with a 1GG mana cost in Vintage and Legacy.

Also, huge difference in counting on opponent to actively do something for you to draw a card (remember, giving opponent the choice is usually bad in these situations) and just drawing cards while already doing things you'd otherwise be doing anyway (playing spells, and multiple spells in one turn).

4  Eternal Formats / General Strategy Discussion / Re: [OGW] Jori En, Ruin Diver on: December 29, 2015, 03:00:46 pm
So it's an Ophidian that doesn't need to use the combat step, or a Dark Confidant that doesn't affect your life total.

I think this will be the biggest Eternal-impact card in this set. I'm pretty sure it's good enough to see play in both Vintage and Legacy and might just have an even bigger, Snapcaster-esque, impact than we all think.

Completely free card draw is a rare commodity that can't be taken lightly.
5  Eternal Formats / Eternal Article Discussion / Re: [Free Article] Fearless Workshops on: December 10, 2015, 06:14:49 pm
The Chalice restriction killed the soul of this format. Workshops were as much of a pillar of this format as were Mana Drains or Oath of Druids or Gush. Without being able to play the best card in the deck (yes, Chalice was secretly the best card in the Shops deck, even better than the namesake land) as a 4-of, the archetype is no longer able to compete consistently with the blue decks. The Chalice restriction is the worse thing to happen to Vintage diversity in recent memory. For shame, Wizards.

6  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: Guy finds binder with Power9 on NY Comic Con... on: November 17, 2015, 02:06:59 pm
I see these stories of losing decks and misplacing decks and having cards stolen all the time. In all my years of playing Magic (both competitively and casually) I have never lost a single card or had even a single card become stolen.

I just don't understand how anyone can be so casual with expensive magic cards. When I attend a tournament, I only take *1* deck with me (the deck I am playing in the tournament), and then I keep it in my bag and only take it out at the start of every round. I will never bring a trade binder or collection to a tournament - are you there to trade or are you there to actually play?

How do people lose decks left and right? It seems like such a foreign problem to me - I suppose that most people just don't respect the value of their cards if they are so cavalier with their decks and their collections.
7  Eternal Formats / Eternal Article Discussion / Re: [Free Podcast] So Many Insane Plays Podcast Episode 49: B/R List Update on: October 12, 2015, 07:44:51 pm
@ IslandSwamp

As someone who played alot of Workshops in the MTGO Classic format. Once they restricted LSG the deck was dead and so was the format shortly there after.
If you restrict LSG in Vintage the deck will be absolutely on the tier 2 level.

How did people do well with Shops prior to Worldwake's printing?
8  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: Suggestions For Improving the Online Vintage Experience on: October 09, 2015, 03:14:03 pm
It's because of the trade interface.  The database they use to store collections and manage what decks you can/cannot play is really old.  And the play client runs concurrently with the collection tracking.  The biggest problem with MTGO is they don't want to separate the two.  Conceivably you could easily make a client that ran on all types of operating systems that was 'play only' but you wouldn't be able to manage your collection or trade cards.  It was set up this way long ago since it was one of the first real digital object ownership platforms online in existence and they were super paranoid about hacking things you were paying real money for.

Are you saying that the server relies on the client to verify user's collections? That can't be right, because that would be hacked so quickly. You simply can't rely on clients to secure any kind of data at all in a decent client-server platform where the user is untrusted.



9  Eternal Formats / General Strategy Discussion / Re: [ORG]Jace,Vryn's Prodigy//Jace, Telepath Unbound on: October 08, 2015, 11:10:36 am
It's remarkable how some of the most powerful cards in Magic's history are largely unheralded - or at least, largely underestimated - when released.  Necropotence may be the most famous, but Gifts, Gush, Jace, TMS, and certainly, Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time are also examples. 

Throw Tarmogoyf and Bridge from Below into that category as well.

Although I'm pretty sure people the potential of DTT/TC right off the bat. In your own Khans predictions podcast I think you guys were pretty bullish on DTT/TC both.
10  Eternal Formats / Creative / Re: White Trash! on: October 08, 2015, 11:08:30 am
So has anyone ever thought of playing 4 Thalia and 4 Vryn Wingmares in this deck? Maybe even throwing in some Glowriders for the maximum "sphere" effect?
11  Eternal Formats / General Strategy Discussion / Re: [ORG]Jace,Vryn's Prodigy//Jace, Telepath Unbound on: October 04, 2015, 05:32:53 pm
Hope every blue player grabbed their set. The card just peaked at $85.

I will never understand this insanity.  The card is in print and people will pay the price of a whole box?  Ok.

Looks like I'm not playing with this card ever. Smile

All you had to do was pre-order this obviously good Snapcaster-esque card like everyone else who knows something good when they first see it. Smile
12  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: Suggestions For Improving the Online Vintage Experience on: October 01, 2015, 04:36:53 pm
What I want to know is why is the *client* so bloated and inefficient, and why is the client exclusive to a single platform?

I'm a software developer myself and as far as I can tell, there is no real excuse to have anything but a thin, small-footprint client in an online card game. In fact, there is no reason, technically, with minimal development budgeting, this can't just be a simple web client that can be played on every platform (tablets, phones, mac, pc).

I understand that 10,000s+ of cards cause complexity for the design of the rules engine and the rest of the server-side stuff, but in terms of client design, there is basically no complexity. All the client needs to be able to do is move pixmaps around on a screen, process user requests, and send and receive network packets and do some minimal processing on them.

They should ideally have two separate teams working on client and server, because there really doesn't need to be much consensus on design betwixt the two teams other than ratification of a transmission protocol. Even average-quality programmers and designers could put together a web client / java client that's faster, more portable, and more efficient than what they have now.

On a side note, does anyone run MTGO on a Mac?  Making MTGO Mac friendly seems like a good suggestion.

MTGO doesn't run on a Mac, I tried to stream mtgo on a brand new computer on Linux in a Windows VM, but the machine couldn't handle it - I literally bought windows just to play mtgo. I agree that it would be great for MTGO to be Mac and/or Linux compatible, but implementing that would surely cost orders of magnitude more than the smaller fixes that they're already unable to profitably do.

If we're separating the client as an implementation from the server, it's a much smaller cost than "orders of magnitude". There's no excuse not to have platform-independent clients interfacing with a separate server software. This is not expensive or complex to do in a card game implementation.

13  Eternal Formats / Workshop-Based Prison / Hangarback Walker in Vintage MUD on: October 01, 2015, 04:30:40 pm
Ok, so I'm more of a Legacy player personally, but I've played a fair bit of Vintage online and know a thing or two about the format still, but I'm kind of out of the loop regarding recent MUD lists. I've seen people play 4 Hangarback Walker alongside 4 Arcbound Ravager and while I understand why you might want to combine the two, I'm puzzled as to whether or not playing Hangarback Walker is actually the best possible option of all the ways to build MUD.

Can someone who has had success with Hangarback Walker in MUD tell me why it's good enough to play over all the other options that were being played? And also, why is it not being played in Legacy MUD lists (yes, I know Workshop makes the Vintage MUD strategy far superior, but still - most of the other creatures used are similar across both lists, so why not Walker if he is successful in Vintage)?

14  Eternal Formats / General Strategy Discussion / Re: Return to Zendikar Treasures on: September 01, 2015, 03:46:35 pm
This set is gonna sell for dirt cheap.  You get roughly 3-4 of these per case (each one as rare as foil mythic, but 66% more of them), so if they hold the values some are projecting, everything else will be very inexpensive.  I expect these to drive down the price of foil ktk fetches as well.  If we have something like: enemy fetch $150, allied fetch $100, shock $40, bfz dual $15, they are taking up roughly $230 in value of the average case, which is over half the wholesale price of the case.   

Additionally, this and the land type on duals points to enemy fetches coming out during next block (or before) so they are still relevant when khans rotates.


How are you arriving at the 3-4 per case figure? Foil mythic rares are opened roughly once in every 216 packs (according to SCG data), so this being of a similar rarity, you will, on average, see maybe slightly more than one per case.

15  Eternal Formats / Northeast U.S. / Re: The 2015 Eternal Weekend! $20,000+ in prizes! Philadelphia, PA! August 21-23! on: August 24, 2015, 09:44:02 am
Congrats to Brian Kelly for a much deserved victory. This guy has put so much of his time and energy into Vintage Magic the past few years (both online and offline, he has played this format relentlessly) and loves the format more than anyone else I've met.

I had a feeling several months ago when I played against his newly styled Oath deck on Cockatrice that he had something special and would win a big tournament with it, but when I talked to him outside the Convention Center on Sunday between rounds and saw how bubbly and effervescent he was, after I wished him "Good Luck" I just knew, somehow, that he was destined to win it all.

16  Eternal Formats / Eternal Article Discussion / Re: [Free Podcast] So Many Insane Plays Podcast Episode 46: Champs Preview on: August 18, 2015, 07:59:12 pm
Finally, to add to this point, online cards are way cheaper than paper, and so it is not uncommon for players to be able to play "any deck".

That was a good post regarding how comparative ease of access to cards in MTGO v. paper attracts more players to the most competitive strategies cost aside.  The one note I would add is that not every deck is playable on MTGO because you cannot pragmatically combo out with Worldgorger Dragon or Auriok Salvagers and even the newly popular Splinter Twin deck is handicapped by the program's inability (rather unwillingness) to emulate infinite repetition.   As a result, there are some surprises in store for players overly acclimated to the MTGO metagame who come to compete in the Northeast.  

More than a few hapless MTGO grinders will fall victim this weekend to Brian Kelly recurring his AEther Spellbomb, all while wondering how the combo is even possible or whydidntIseeitinmylatestDE?





17  Eternal Formats / Northeast U.S. / Re: The 2015 Eternal Weekend! $20,000+ in prizes! Philadelphia, PA! August 21-23! on: August 15, 2015, 11:54:51 pm
I suppose you technically can, but registration closes (both online and on-site) the day before the event. So you essentially have to be there the day before. Not a problem for people booking hotel rooms and staying the whole weekend, but as I'm someone who lives a bit over an hour away from Philadelphia, I plan on just driving in the morning of the tournament. For me to register on-site I'd have to be there the previous day.

I'm always loathe to pre-register for events because I never know if I will make it until the day of the tournament. Anything can happen - car problems, sleeping in too late, work issues, family problems, whatever. I just feel so much more comfortable if I can just register on-site right before the tournament starts (as is the case with the Starcitygames Opens/IQs) unless they are willing to offer refunds for players who pay for registration but don't actually play.

On another note, does anyone know exactly what *ROOM* this tournament will be held in the convention center? I know from experience that it's a pretty huge convention center with multiple buildings attached together. It would be nice to know exactly which Room I have to find so that I don't waste any time running around looking for it.

18  Eternal Formats / General Strategy Discussion / Re: Amount of Games Required For an Effective Testing Experience on: August 13, 2015, 04:21:44 pm

Relating back to the original topic, I get a lot more out of detailed analysis of the practice games I play than the shear quantity of games. For instance, if a scenario like the one you described above, I would write down the scenario and construct as many lines as possible then dissect those lines based on probability. I would not play out those lines though...

That's where MTGO really does a great service.  The capacity to review played games is a tremendous analytical tool.

Even better is the option to review games with full knowledge of your opponent's hand at every point in the game, which leads you to understand his train of thought during the match. This kind of replay with full opponent knowledge is only available via Cockatrice, afaik.

19  Eternal Formats / Northeast U.S. / Re: The 2015 Eternal Weekend! $20,000+ in prizes! Philadelphia, PA! August 21-23! on: August 13, 2015, 04:13:55 pm
Has anyone found a way to register for this event with Paypal? It seems, at first glance, that I need a real credit card to register for this?

I really don't know why all these big events no longer accept cash registration on-site. It's the most convenient way for most players to sign up for these events, really. And what if I pre-register, and then, for some reason, have some issue that prevents me from arriving on the site that day (car problems, work issue, family issues)? It seems wholly unfair to lock people into pre-registering online.

20  Eternal Formats / General Strategy Discussion / Re: Amount of Games Required For an Effective Testing Experience on: August 10, 2015, 11:22:57 am
How do you treat missed triggers and small mistakes, e.g. casting Sol Ring into Chalice of the Void, casting Mana Drain paying 1U, in playtesting? If you play hardcore like in a tournament, you might get skewed results but if all mistakes get corrected it might creates bad habit that can be really punishing in a real tournament.

I think it's best to ensure making the "optimal" play for the deck you're testing *against*. So this way, your test list gets the roughest treatment possible. If it survives "optimal" play, you know you have a better-than-average chance against the suboptimal play you will inevitably run into during the course of a tournament.
21  Eternal Formats / Eternal Article Discussion / Re: [Free Podcast] So Many Insane Plays Podcast Episode 45: Magic Origins on: August 10, 2015, 10:48:15 am
Great work once again. Alongside Top Level Podcast with Chapin&Flores this has to be the best Magic-related podcast.
22  Eternal Formats / General Strategy Discussion / Re: [ORI] Abbot of Keral Keep on: August 05, 2015, 02:55:19 pm
Have you SEEN Chapin's vintage lists? He very obviously has never taken the format seriously. Flores, as far as I know, hasn't touched the format in any capacity. Both are literally paid to make hyperbolic statements about how good new cards are.

Does Abbot look so bad it would be embarrassing to test it? No, of course not.
Would I bet on it ending up played in a top deck? eh...

I doubt this conversation can go much further without test results and lists for context

Maybe Chapin doesn't pay attention to Vintage specifically, but he is an extremely good judge of card power in general, and a good judge of card potential.
23  Eternal Formats / Northeast U.S. / Re: Alternate Universes Holmes - Vintage for a Ruby - 8/16/15 (RESCHEDULED) on: August 04, 2015, 07:53:11 pm
Is the store in Blue Bell no longer open? I had some fond memories of Vintage in that shop in years past - have they shut down and moved all operations to the Holmes store or what?
24  Eternal Formats / General Strategy Discussion / Re: [ORI] Abbot of Keral Keep on: August 04, 2015, 10:20:16 am
No one was saying that about Snapcaster... Snapcaster was as close to a consensus allstar for Vintage the second it was spoiled.  The comparison is off on multiple levels.  Snapcaster is blue, has flash, is shut off by graveyard hate, and combos well with spells that want rebuys.  The only thing in common is neither is an actual 2 drop.

If you look at spoiler threads, there was hesitation about how often you'd "hit" on something with Snapcaster.

Of course Snapcaster being blue and having flash is better, but the comparison stands: they are both 2 mana 2/1s that generate +1 card advantage. That's the entire point of the comparison. Rarely does Wizards print efficient creatures that create card advantage - white got theirs in Stoneforge Mystic, blue got Snapcaster, black got Dark Confidant, and now red gets Abbot.

Quote
This exile mechanic is so much worse than draw a card.  I can never get a counterspell, or a gush off this guy (these cards don't exist in standard).  If you want a prowess creature that sometimes gives you extra value OK.  But I think Swiftspear, Young Pyromancer, and Monestery Mentor are in a completely different class than this card.

It's worse in a blue control deck, of course. That's why you have to look at this card and ask yourself "how can i maximize this ability"? What kind of deck would he fit best in? Because he's still drawing a card with his ability. If you play mostly sorcery speed stuff in this deck, then he is functionally red Snapcaster in terms of card advantage and stats, and because of prowess he's even a little bit better in that deck.

As far as the deck: I'm thinking maybe blue/red burn? Something with cheap burn spells that also plays Treasure Cruise and blue cantrips? Or even just a Blue/Red Delver deck witih Swiftspears, Abbots, and Delvers that is less heavy on the counters and more heavy on Wastelands, Chain Lightning, Fireblast, etc.
25  Eternal Formats / General Strategy Discussion / Re: [ORI] Abbot of Keral Keep on: August 04, 2015, 10:02:31 am
No offense, but I think we have to take what people like Patrick Chapin and Mike Flores say in much greater confidence than anything a random poster on a Vintage forum says.

These are people that have played, and done well, on the highest level of competition Magic has to offer - the Pro Tour. Multiple times. That's a level of accomplishment most of us on here could only dream of.

If they say it's a red Snapcaster Mage, then it probably is a red Snapcaster Mage. The only real question here is how do we adapt Abbot to Vintage decks like we did with Snapcaster Mage. It's not necessarily a no-brainer fit like Snapcaster was because red is harder to work into decks than blue is.

Except that they are talking about a completely different format, where the card pool is about 1/20 of that in vintage... There is a big difference between this and Snapcaster in that when I play my Snapcaster I know how much mana I have to spend to get an extra spell.  I don't know how much mana I have to spend with this guy. There are certainly worse things you can play than a 2/1 prowess, but this is vintage and we have far more reliable options.

Some of these same concerns were raised when Snapcaster was spoiled - "i don't know if something valuable will be in the graveyard, i don't know if my stuff in the graveyard will be applicable to the game state", etc.

I feel that worrying about how much mana you have to spend on the card drawn is a red herring. The mana curve in most Vintage decks is low enough that it should not be an issue to cast that card 90%+ of the time but not always, just like with Snapcaster there is usually something valuable to flashback in the graveyard 90%+ of the time, but *not always*.

And in the deck you're putting this guy in, your curve will probably be purposely lower than most decks. And in Vintage, due to Moxen and other 0-cc artifacts, this guy is probably even better than he is in the other formats where 0cc mana accelerants don't really exist in the same way.

26  Eternal Formats / General Strategy Discussion / Re: [ORI] Abbot of Keral Keep on: August 04, 2015, 09:23:29 am
No offense, but I think we have to take what people like Patrick Chapin and Mike Flores say in much greater confidence than anything a random poster on a Vintage forum says.

These are people that have played, and done well, on the highest level of competition Magic has to offer - the Pro Tour. Multiple times. That's a level of accomplishment most of us on here could only dream of.

If they say it's a red Snapcaster Mage, then it probably is a red Snapcaster Mage. The only real question here is how do we adapt Abbot to Vintage decks like we did with Snapcaster Mage. It's not necessarily a no-brainer fit like Snapcaster was because red is harder to work into decks than blue is.

27  Eternal Formats / General Strategy Discussion / Re: [ORI] Abbot of Keral Keep on: August 04, 2015, 08:03:10 am
Mike Flores and Patrick Chapin have talked about this card as the "red Snapcaster mage" on their podcast.

After the Pro Tour the Pros were all gushing about its power level in similar tones. Of course, this was a Standard Pro tour, but I remember Snapcaster Mage being feted in similar circumstances around the time of its first Pro Tour appearance.

That doesn't necessarily mean that this card translates quite to Vintage like Snapcaster did, but the groundwork has been laid - dominance in Standard and comparisons to Snapcaster by top Pro players.
28  Eternal Formats / General Strategy Discussion / Re: Amount of Games Required For an Effective Testing Experience on: August 03, 2015, 09:11:39 am
Unfortunately, the question in the OP really depends on what is meant by "effective" or "proficient."  

It's my view that performance, generally, scales to skill, and skill has no real cap.  There may be diminishing returns on skill past a certain point on a skill scale, but it still makes a difference.  At the extreme end, look at some of the games played by LSV and Efro in the VSL.  So, when playing a matchup, you can't really untangle the strategy and tactics (the cards used) from the opponent you are facing.  It's typical for pro players to talk in terms of matchup %ages, but those are really just heuristics, and aren't actually empirical assertions.  

Also, you can't really untangle specific skills with a strategy from general Vintage or even Magic skill.  There are alot of tactics that cut across the format that aren't deck specific - such as how to use Vampiric Tutor, timing Ancestral Recall, and use countermagic.  Someone who has very high skill level with a specific deck (like Landstill), but very low experience and skill in Vintage in general, may be good strategically, but only medium strength tactically.  Performance outcomes depend on all of those factors, and there is no way to isolate the contribution of each on ultimate outcomes.  

In general, I don't think it's possible to play a matchup and definitively define a matchups percentages for the reasons just mentioned.  

That said, I think the function of testing is less to assess %ages, and more to look for patterns and develop a conceptual model or understanding of the matchup.  You should test until you can see clear patterns in the data and develop at least a basic causal structure for matchup outcomes - such as what cards or circumstances seemed to most closely correlate with victory or defeat.  Once you have played enough games to discern clear patterns, then that should be the basis for understanding the matchup.  That number of games will vary greatly based upon a number of factors, including experience with the matchup, experience in the format, ability to perceive patterns, and much more.  

Separating player skill from deck/matchup positioning always has seemed to be the most challenging aspect of testing for me. The best way to remedy this concern is to ensure that the skill level of both testers is as similar as possible. When doing serious testing, seek someone you consider to be your equal in terms of skill. Note that it might actually be detrimental, if you solely want to test match-up percentages in particular, to find a play-testing partner who exceeds your level of skill (when in most other situations playing against someone of a higher skill level will eventually raise your own skill level over time) just as it will be equally detrimental to secure a play-testing partner who adumbrates your level of skill.

One particular way to ensure that the skill level of both play-testers is equal is simply to use one person in both roles! I like to test certain match-ups sometimes by opening a local game one-player in Cockatrice and playing both sides as optimally as I think they can be played. I specifically focus on the mechanics of the interactions of both decks to determine match-up peculiarities and develop a personal framework for that match-up exclusive of player idiosyncrasies that may arise if both play-testers were instead different people.

An added benefit to doing this "one player" type of testing is that you can step through each chain of interactions and even rewind that chain to compare different lines of play (because you are playing the roles of both players and know what each side wanted to do when), whereas in more traditional two-player matches it is harder to be cognizant of the exact thought process of each player and the exact decision tree traversed in any given turn.

You can do this type of testing (and many have) in paper, but software such as Cockatrice automates tedious mechanical motions such as card shuffling and deck assembly, such that it will allow you to do rapid-fire testing and focus as efficiently and sharply on exactly whichever dynamic you wish to test.
29  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: MTGO Play Points & changes to Dailies on: July 25, 2015, 10:32:19 am
Simple version:
1) Packs were being given out at a fast rate than they were being drafted so they were being very devalued.
2) You can't give tickets as prizes cause of gambling issues.
3) They made a new ticket type to get around this issue.

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like the people most upset by the daily changes are the ones who played them and pretty much nothing else. AKA people who want to play for free or actually view MTGO as a way to make money.

Not saying that isn't the rationale, but 1) why is the value of packs suddenly a problem now?  What triggered this problem or changed recently to prompt a policy response?  And 2) then how do Grand Prix, SCG Opens, and other major tournaments give away cash prizes? 

I'm kind of curious about the legality of issue #2 as well. What are the legal ramifications of offering cash prizes at large-scale Magic tournaments? Someone once told me that under certain laws governing gambling that these types of tournaments are considered "amusements" and are thus not subject to illegal gambling statutes, but I'm not a lawyer and I certainly would appreciate if one could chime in and shed some light on this!
30  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: MTGO Play Points & changes to Dailies on: July 24, 2015, 11:43:56 am
Welp, I better scramble to find some bots to buy buy my massive MODO collection and liquidate some value before it all goes south!

Oh wait, I never wasted a single cent on MODO, even when people were imploring me to buy in when Vintage was released on the platform. "Black Lotuses and Moxen are the lowest they'll ever be! Get them now while you still can!" they told me.  Very Happy
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