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61  Eternal Formats / General Strategy Discussion / Re: Perilous Vault on: June 26, 2014, 05:00:03 pm
Minor Caveat: Exiling Ichy and friends is much preferred to sending them to the grave. Fact is, you're probably too late if that's what you're using this for. Still, probably better than Oblivion Stone.
62  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: MTG Cube enthusiasts on: June 26, 2014, 12:45:53 pm
My cube is double sleeved (perfect fits, pink dragon shields). 420 cards (http://cubetutor.com/viewcube/4063), 100ish tokens, emblems, and double sided cards (perfect fits on anything > $3), and 150 basic land (perfect fits, pink dragon shields).

Two boxes: a 250 count box for land and a 1000 count box for everything else with the tokens kept inside one of the boxes that the perfect fits came in.

Ideally, this would all fit in a single box with a separator for cards used recently and cards not used recently. My wife and I Winchester Draft the cube and play matches over the course of the week. The whole thing would be rigid and waterproof. It's disturbing how valuable the thing has become with the rising cost of (foily) legacy staples, fetches, duals, etc. And on the note...maybe add a padlock to the whole thing.
63  Eternal Formats / General Strategy Discussion / Re: Sliver Hive on: June 25, 2014, 06:11:56 pm
Edit: These cards would also destroy every format they are legal in.
Which invites the question: do they make it worthwhile to play a 5C sliver land that isn't Cavern to help you resolve Discordant Sliver in the first place?
64  Eternal Formats / General Strategy Discussion / Re: Sliver Hive on: June 25, 2014, 01:03:12 pm
Let's stop the joking around: Snapcaster Sliver and Dark Confisliver in M15 would shake up the meta and the deck that played them would play Cavern of Souls. The real question is whether or not it would run one of these even if those two got printed.

Ie. Does some unforeseen overpowered Sliver get this played over Caverns or duals/fetches? I don't think you'd ever run Hive #1 over Cavern #4. You'd need a crazy Sliver density to edge out duals, too.
65  Eternal Formats / General Strategy Discussion / Re: Sliver Hive on: June 24, 2014, 10:22:26 pm
It's sort of interesting that you can run this and Cavern of Souls. Not sure these nonbasics are anything near on par with Island and its support for Daze. If they print a 1 cmc Muscle Sliver, you could probably do this concept. But what can they offer that's good enough for Vintage? Patron Sliver? Trygon Sliver? Snapcaster Sliver? Dark Confisliver?
66  Eternal Formats / General Strategy Discussion / Re: Dakra Mystic on: June 24, 2014, 10:08:43 am
Make of that what you will ... My thoughts are starting to crystallize now based on this simulation.
The sim barely matters. If the distribution is uniform, this card is useless. If it's a Dirac delta, it doubles the expected value of a normal draw. The problem is that in Vintage, the distribution is actually closer to a unit step. Ie. Do I have enough lands? Yes: I don't need any more and drawing one verges on worthless.

So let's presume a 20:40 split on turn 3. 40 cards matter, 20 don't.

4 possibilities:
We both see junk (1 in 9)
We both see something we want (4 in 9)
I see something I want (2 in 9)
You see something you want (2 in 9).

So 44% of the time I activate this, I'll be happy I did. By contrast, I'm happy 100% of the time I activate Deathrite Shaman.
67  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: VINTAGE on Magic Online is announced!!! on: June 18, 2014, 08:30:36 pm
@JACO
Thoughts on Force of Will's "final" price? It seems likely to be a major driver of cost in the future as Legacy players buy them up. Would you recommend that folks buy those now or later?
68  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: VINTAGE on Magic Online is announced!!! on: June 18, 2014, 02:19:40 pm
Seems like a dramatic understatement to call this a volatile market.
69  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: VINTAGE on Magic Online is announced!!! on: June 17, 2014, 09:40:42 am
And dont settle on zendikar fetches if they are cheaper and you only need to fetch blue because they will get reprinted this year and there will be a big gap between ols ones and zendikar ones.
Wait, what?  I'm not aware of any promised reprints on fetches?
70  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: VINTAGE on Magic Online is announced!!! on: June 16, 2014, 08:56:18 am
And Force of Will is now more valuable than Timetwister.
71  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: VINTAGE on Magic Online is announced!!! on: June 15, 2014, 06:43:52 pm
I guess I forgot that unlike in cardboard MtG, online players only ever need one Mana Crypt. I own three just so that I didn't have to move them between Vintage/cube/EDH.
72  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: VINTAGE on Magic Online is announced!!! on: June 15, 2014, 01:48:01 pm
strong words from someone with little experience on magic online.
Pearl is at $63; Force is at $31. Remember that demand is highest right now as people buy into MtGO just because Vintage was just added.

I'm amazed that Mana Crypt is so low. There must be a ton already out or EDH verges on unplayable there.
73  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: VINTAGE on Magic Online is announced!!! on: June 14, 2014, 10:46:32 pm
Power is getting cheap gentleman, time to jump in soon if you are on the fence.  30 timetwister 60 moxen 70 blue power 130 lotus
Moronic. The prices are in freefall. Who should buy now? The only thing you should even consider is snagging a playset of FoW.

In fact, I recommend trading your extra power for FoW: that thing the Legacy players also need. Power is going to be dead cheap and Moxen will be less than FoW.

There's no need for that. You could have made your point without the insulting tone. Stop it. I'm not very tolerant of that.
-Zherbus
74  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: VINTAGE on Magic Online is announced!!! on: June 14, 2014, 09:53:00 am
I maintain my earlier position: Mana Drain and Force of Will's prices haven't budged, but power is dropping like a rock. What's even more interesting is how low Dack Fayden is seeing as he goes in every EDH deck in those colors.

I'll be highly amused if Pearl settles lower than Force of Will. You need 4 Force for Legacy, but only a handful of Vintage decks need a Pearl.
75  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: VINTAGE on Magic Online is announced!!! on: June 13, 2014, 04:23:47 pm
Looks like FoW has crashed in price.
76  Eternal Formats / Miscellaneous / Re: BUg Doomsday. Dark Ritual < Deathrite Shaman on: June 13, 2014, 09:18:32 am
In particular, can I avoid needing Doomsday or Tendrils to win?
The big difference between Shaman and Ritual is that only of the two can kill your opponent. While Deathrite can't make black mana quite as efficiently as Dark Ritual, it can do it turn after turn while depriving your opponent of Snapcaster targets, life, and graveyard recursion. Having multiple Deathrite main also greatly helps the Workshop matchup.

I've updated a bit. The "flex" slot became Deathrite #3. The 2 Flusterstorms became Spell Pierces. I got tired of not being able to counter Jace and Tangle Wire.

Here's the current sideboard:
1 Hurkyl's Recall
2 Steel Sabotage
1 Forest
3 Trygon Predator
3 Abrupt Decay
2 Snapcaster Mage
3 Extirpate (MVP)

Edit: 2x Snapcaster in the SB lets you do a pretty good BUG impression.
77  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: VINTAGE on Magic Online is announced!!! on: June 07, 2014, 05:34:39 pm
If I could compete with people where something monetarily is on the line, while rules are enforced, and provide me invested opponents at any time of the day, I definitely would still be playing free ccg programs for games.

That harsh reality set in for me when a 10 hour round trip to an event the next state over had me needing to actually win the event just to pay for the trip.
It's not that hard to have online tourneys or even rankings via Cockatrice.
78  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: VINTAGE on Magic Online is announced!!! on: June 06, 2014, 06:41:28 am
I'm hope Tweidel's numbers are wrong, as I think that would make Vintage largely inaccessible online.  Few players will spend $1500+ just for power nine to play online, I fear.
I'm happy to bet that Black Lotus is under Force of Will within six months.
79  Eternal Formats / General Strategy Discussion / Re: Meteorite on: June 05, 2014, 09:18:51 am
It's not clear to me how good this is or isn't in something with Dack + Welder. If you're cheating it into play, both the mana (for casting non-artifact spells and countermagic, since Welding it in probably cost you a Mox) and the damage can matter.
80  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: VINTAGE on Magic Online is announced!!! on: June 05, 2014, 09:12:29 am
@ the duck
That post doesn't help at all. It seems to me like you see my numbers, you don't like them, make up some random calculation in 2 minutes and make a statement that is doesn't tell us anything... would have taken you 30 seconds to find out that packs are not costing 4$ by the way.
Substitute $8, though if I understand correctly, tix aren't quite dollars. The math holds for a perfect liquid market (and MtGO more or less is since you can buy packs on a whim in any quantity for a fixed cost). Prices can't exceed some ceiling for long until people crack packs and bring the price back down.

Expected value of a pack <= price per pack
Sum(expected value of a rarity * expected quantity of a rarity) <= price per pack

I'm just multiplying the whole thing by 53 since WotC has stated that that's the frequency of "special" rarity: one in 53 packs.
81  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: VINTAGE on Magic Online is announced!!! on: June 05, 2014, 07:43:38 am
When we are using the current value of the interesting mythics and rares, we get to (a):

Black Lotus 225
Ancestral Recall 150
Time Walk 150
Moxes 125
Timetwister 50

Set:. 1250
$4/pack * (53 packs/1 special) = $212 each on average IF THE REST OF THE SET IS WORTHLESS.

Now let's be conservative and assume that the average mythics and rares are $1. You can just subtract that off as the expected value of the packs that didn't contain a Special:

$4/pack * (53 packs/1 special) - $1/rare * (52 rares/1 special) = $160.

Let's say you think the average mythic is $5:
$4/pack * (53 packs/1 special) - $1/rare * (46 rares/1 special) - $5/mythic * (6 mythics/1 special) = $130.

It bears mentioning that if Mox Sapphire is twice as rare as Force of Will, Force of Will can still cost twice as much. People want 4 FoW, but only 1 Mox Sapphire. I honestly think power floods the market in order to get enough copies of Drain/FoW/Dack. In fact, I'm willing to bet that Dack costs more than Timetwister.
82  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: Your Favorite Magic Card & Why (list no more than 3) on: June 03, 2014, 09:30:22 am
Stasis/Doomsday/Jester's Cap effects: They radically change the game's resource space after resolving. Ie. Card advantage isn't a thing when you have no mana to spend. Board advantage isn't a thing when you can stack your library to provide exactly the resources you need. Nothing else is a thing when the cards you need to win are no longer in your deck.
83  Eternal Formats / General Strategy Discussion / Re: best ways to beat weenie decks for GB? on: May 30, 2014, 04:43:29 pm
Generally speaking, you switch from control to combo to beat aggro. What about Dark Depths or Helm-Line?
84  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: Conspiracy - What if? on: May 29, 2014, 02:55:52 pm
Most of the time you use the default pile. I'd actually say that if you like puzzles, play a "bad" reactive control-combo deck like Goblins. If there's an easy win, you'll be too tempted to take it.
85  Eternal Formats / General Strategy Discussion / Re: Chasm Skulker M15 on: May 29, 2014, 09:42:55 am
Neither True-Name nor Skulker has haste. It likely has 5+ power when it swings. The real issue is that nothing in Vintage is going to kill this with more than one counter on it. Folks will bounce/counter/exile/ignore it. If it triggered on leaving the battlefield, I'd consider it very playable. As stands...meh. It's Lorescale Coatl.
86  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: Conspiracy - What if? on: May 28, 2014, 03:12:47 pm
Not really. If someone ever seriously suggests legalizing conspiracies, we can point them at this thread.

To me it seems implausible that anyone would ever argue in favor of rainbow-producing basics and 40-card decks, but I'm sure someone will surprise me.
87  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: Conspiracy - What if? on: May 27, 2014, 09:54:27 pm
Good catch. I guess you'd have to cast Earthcraft first. Worldknit lets a basic make any color anyways. So, you get to hardcast a hasty Emrakul and just attack twice.
88  Eternal Formats / General Strategy Discussion / Re: Reclamation Sage on: May 27, 2014, 09:04:08 am
He's fundamentally different from Pridemage because of the Elf critter type. That said, he's never seeing play outside of ELVES!!!.
89  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: Conspiracy - What if? on: May 27, 2014, 08:09:35 am
Is that even necessary?

99x


+

+

Now you start the very first upkeep with 99 mana.
The format essentially boils down to Savage Summoning, a critter that can win the game (ie. Maga Traitor to Mortals/Platz), and Overloaded Counterflux, Trickbind, and Sudden Spoiling.

First player casts Spoiling. Second player floats 99 mana. First player tries to move to draw step. Second player must attempt to win or not lose on the spot and casts their own Sudden Spoiling. First player casts Savage Summoning for Teferi. Second player must attempt to win in response. They Savage Summon their own Teferi. First player Savage Summons _____ in response. Second player Savage Summons Maga in response and wins.

Fun format...not at all. There might be some strategies involving 4x Venser if you're willing to take a lot of risk.

Deck is:
2x Savage Summoning
Maga
Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir
Trickbind
2x Sudden Spoiling
3x Decree of Silence

For now-obvious reasons, effects like this had to banned in Constructed. When the cost is a card foregone in draft, that's one thing. When the cost of inclusion is simply how many you can afford, Black Lotus pales in comparison.
90  Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: My "magic backpack" on: May 24, 2014, 03:58:12 pm
I admit, now that my collection for the most part is MUCH less unique since I've sold a bulk of my japanese cards, I am a little more worried about this since my collection would be much more liquid to a thief.
That's the issue: these things are liquid.
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