[Discussion] To Oath or not to Oath

[Andreas]

Hi everyone,

this is a situation that had come up during a tournament match, and I would like to know your opinion on what you think is the right play.

The Situation:

You are playing Meandeck Oath against Food Chain Goblins.

You are at 14 life, your opponent is at 12 life.

Your opponent has in play 2 Mountains, Mox Emerald, Goblin Piledriver and Goblin Warchief. He has 3 cards in hand.

You have in play Forbidden Orchard, Tropical Island, Mox Sapphire, Oath of Druids and Akroma.
You have in hand Gaea's Blessing, one counter, and no Brainstorm.

It is your upkeep. Do you activate Oath or not?

[Outlaw]

Well, you choose to oath up Spirit of the Night, and swing for 12 life.  They loose, and if they want to play a spell you have a counter. You win.

Or you can choose not to oath, and play defensively and swing with akroma, block something then swing next turn.

[Necrologia]

The only way Oathing can mess you up here is if Spirit is the last card in your library. The only way the opponent can mess you up is by dropping 2 must counters in one turn. You didn't mention how large your library is, but I'll assume it's getting pretty thin, otherwise the odds against you not just winning this turn are quite slim. Personally I'd Oath here, as I fear a potential horde of 1 mana hasted piledrivers more than I fear the very unlikely event of decking oneself.

[Tobi]

If you oath and the last card in your library is the Spirit, there is always the chance you opponent scoops in resonse to you revealing the Spirit

This happened on the last P9 Tournament in Karlsruhe.

[SpencerForHire]

It doesn't matter either way, blessing is in hand so he at least has three turns after oathing because he can put 3 cards back in his library.

[Limbo]

It doesn't matter either way, blessing is in hand so he at least has three turns after oathing because he can put 3 cards back in his library.

Not quite. If the spirit happens to be the last card in his library, he will lose during the drawstep, as he won't be able to draw a card there. However, if he has a vedalken orrery in play, that will be no problem

[Cafe_Cafe]

That´s the reason I ALWAYS play 2 Blessings.
61 cards = Much more mental health

[Andreas]

If you oath and the last card in your library is the Spirit, there is always the chance you opponent scoops in resonse to you revealing the Spirit

This happened on the last P9 Tournament in Karlsruhe.

I know, I was there after all.

To clarify things and sum up what has already been said:

At the moment there were at least 40 cards in the library.

Basically the game is won for the Oath player, but no matter what route you choose there is a small risk to still loose.

If you decide to oath up the Spirit, you win this turn, unless the Spirit is the last card in the library, in which case you simply loose. Which is what happened in said match and prompted this post.

If you decide not to oath, you will swing with Akroma for 6 this turn and then for another 6 the next turn, giving your opponent 1 turn to deliver 14 damage through Akroma and 1 counter, which is at least as unlikely as Spirit being the last card.  

Alternatively your opponent can drop Maze of Ith and prolong the game for an unhealthy amount of time. Which he would have to topdeck since otherwise it would be on the table already.

So the quetion it all boils down to is which of the two variants gives you a lower chance to throw away the game.

[Andreas]

If you oath and the last card in your library is the Spirit, there is always the chance you opponent scoops in resonse to you revealing the Spirit

This happened on the last P9 Tournament in Karlsruhe.

I know, I was there after all.

To clarify things and sum up what has already been said:

At the moment there were at least 40 cards in the library.

Basically the game is won for the Oath player, but no matter what route you choose there is a small risk to still loose.

If you decide to oath up the Spirit, you win this turn, unless the Spirit is the last card in the library, in which case you simply loose. Which is what happened in said match and prompted this post.

If you decide not to oath, you will swing with Akroma for 6 this turn and then for another 6 the next turn, giving your opponent 1 turn to deliver 14 damage through Akroma and 1 counter, which is at least as unlikely as Spirit being the last card.  

Alternatively your opponent can drop Maze of Ith and prolong the game for an unhealthy amount of time. Which he would have to topdeck since otherwise it would be on the table already.

So the quetion it all boils down to is which of the two variants gives you a lower chance to throw away the game.