[Article] The Summer of Our Eternal Discontent

[Vegeta2711]

http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/14170.html

First 2/3rds or so are about Vintage stuff. Go figure.

[Imsomniac101]

What kind of Mindcensor Stax list are you using? And could you post it in the other thread. How dominant do you think HulkFlash will be in the Eternal formats? And what kind of a meta game are we headed for? (Future Sight one might say.....sorry)

Thanks in advance.

[acidfreak]

Mana Drain dead? Not yet, but it might happen as Vintage as a format increases in speed every other block or so. Actually this is quite concerning, it seems that vintage is moving more and more towards the win-the-die-roll-first-turn-kill scenario.

Didn't wizards once say in an article that Mana Drain was the standard for T1 and they would take action if it became too slow?
(I hope so 'cause I just bought my third Mana Drain, damnit!  )

Oh and Flash with future sight is just ridiculous, remember how it was playing Trix? Flash is like that except that it goes off a few turns sooner, costs less than half the mana, its instant and it kills you on the same turn. Joy. Budget decks are definetly history this time, except if you're playing Flash.

[Zherbus]

I don't Flash will be but a "Flash" in the pan, so to speak.

[BreathWeapon]

I don't Flash will be but a "Flash" in the pan, so to speak.

It all depends on Ichorid and whether or not Ichorid is MDing LV and forcing other people to SB LV as a response to Ichorid. If that does occur, then Flash has an uphill battle, and if it doesn't occur, then the format is going to have to react to Flash. I'm not certain where it fits in in the presence of Ichorid and SB LV, but I doubt it's going to disappear out right, because it has Force of Will and Merchant Scroll to fight back with.

@Vegeta

I think the most interesting point in the article is whether or not Mishra's Workship is even worth it when compared to Ancient Tomb and City of Traitors, because at this point, I honestly think that there is way too many cards in the 3cc range that can be ignored at this point.

[demonic effect]

I think the most interesting point in the article is whether or not Mishra's Workship is even worth it when compared to Ancient Tomb and City of Traitors, because at this point, I honestly think that there is way too many cards in the 3cc range that can be ignored at this point.

not to mention that many of the cards in the 3cc range that people are wanting to play are enchantments or creatures while cards that cost 4 like smokestax are seeing a drastic decline in popularity... Even uba mask has diminished gains compared to a few years ago as every deck is packing tutors...  This is one of the reasons for the insurgance of blood moon, in the eye of chaos, aven mindcensor, orb of dreams, etc... (not to say that the other decks are gone or that the new "stax" decks are better... just showing a trend)...  As such, these cards are more easily played with ancient tomb or are easily castable (such as chalice or SoR) with tomb or, with cards like orb, with tomb and mox (common)...

The other trend that may also have a significant reason to do with people desiring tomb over factory is bazaar...  bazaar is arguably the best draw engine in the format besides necro or bargain...  More and More the decks that pack factories also pack bazaars which is making it increasingly difficult to use non-artifact spells since that takes up two drops...  While there is undeniable synergy between welder, artifacts, factory, and bazaar... and decks can definately be piloted well, tomb fills in for factory relatively well especially with moxen and allows flexibility through enchantments to be able to adapt to the ever increasingly fast format... (ex tangle wire just won't cut it anymore)

[Smmenen]

I'm not sure if people will actually play future sight in real tournament play.   Since there are so few vintage tournaments, it could be some time before we see the metagame shifts you actually suggest here.   

I would be surprised if lots of people actually took Flash decks to the SCG P9 tournament or waterbury, let alone Ichorid.   But we'll see.

[Purple Hat]

I still don't think hulk is the "right" flash deck.  it's a bit faster, but rector plays much much better cards throughout the deck.  I think that over the long run we'll see that that is much more important than the slight speed advantage provided by hulk.  especially since they're both fast enough to fit into the same speed range as the other fast combo decks but neither is significantly faster.

[Aardshark]

@ purple hat:

Isn't the main advantage of hulk not so much speed (although it can be faster) but resiliance to hate in the form of storm hosers (chalice @ 0-1, sphere of resistance, null rod, and even 3sphere), as well as wastland (depending on your mana base)?  At least with Vegeta's take?

seems to me like hulk-flash has a good stax matchup -- rector-flash not so much.

[Purple Hat]

@ purple hat:

Isn't the main advantage of hulk not so much speed (although it can be faster) but resiliance to hate in the form of storm hosers (chalice @ 0-1, sphere of resistance, null rod, and even 3sphere), as well as wastland (depending on your mana base)?  At least with Vegeta's take?

seems to me like hulk-flash has a good stax matchup -- rector-flash not so much.

hulk tends to play more 0 mana spells and the same number or less mana sources.  this means chalice 0 takes out a bigger chunk of your deck making it a much better play against you.  also most hulk lists that I've seen are significantly more mana light than vegeta's list.  by the time storm hate starts to matter with rector the game's over.  if you can draw 19+ cards and not find your bounce you're not gonna win that game anyway

[Vegeta2711]

I'm not sure if people will actually play future sight in real tournament play.   Since there are so few vintage tournaments, it could be some time before we see the metagame shifts you actually suggest here.   

I would be surprised if lots of people actually took Flash decks to the SCG P9 tournament or waterbury, let alone Ichorid.   But we'll see.

Oh I agree completely. People loathe to change playing what they know well. That said, I expect the changes to come eventually when more enterprising individuals take the helm and start doing well with these decks. Mana Drain is by far the biggest stretch I made in the article, but I fully believe it would happen if people practiced and played optimized versions of Ichorid, Flash and other combo decks like Long and new Belcher. The key isn't even that combo is that good, it's that combo-control no longer needs Drain to be successful and that's the best archetype in the format.

I still don't think hulk is the "right" flash deck.  it's a bit faster, but rector plays much much better cards throughout the deck.

Personally I wouldn't say one way or the other. More importantly though if you look at both Flash bases, they generally contain the same base for a combo and help. Both want to play Scroll, both want to play FoW + free disruption and/or Duress and they both run a decent amount of mana acceleration. I mean really you could narrow down many of the changes to Rector's combo cards aren't dead and it runs one or two more all-purpose tutors than the Hulk build. You still have to have a significant investment in the mana-base and both are vulnerable to the same grave hate. That just leaves the extra speed versus weight of the dead cards and the value of something like Demonic Tutor and Vamp vs. Summoner's Pact.

[Purple Hat]

I still don't think hulk is the "right" flash deck.  it's a bit faster, but rector plays much much better cards throughout the deck.

Personally I wouldn't say one way or the other. More importantly though if you look at both Flash bases, they generally contain the same base for a combo and help. Both want to play Scroll, both want to play FoW + free disruption and/or Duress and they both run a decent amount of mana acceleration. I mean really you could narrow down many of the changes to Rector's combo cards aren't dead and it runs one or two more all-purpose tutors than the Hulk build. You still have to have a significant investment in the mana-base and both are vulnerable to the same grave hate. That just leaves the extra speed versus weight of the dead cards and the value of something like Demonic Tutor and Vamp vs. Summoner's Pact.

I don't feel like the decks are quite that close.  I feel like rector plays better cards overall, has a better backup plan, is better vs chalice and fails less catastrophically.

[diopter]

I still don't think hulk is the "right" flash deck.  it's a bit faster, but rector plays much much better cards throughout the deck.

Personally I wouldn't say one way or the other. More importantly though if you look at both Flash bases, they generally contain the same base for a combo and help. Both want to play Scroll, both want to play FoW + free disruption and/or Duress and they both run a decent amount of mana acceleration. I mean really you could narrow down many of the changes to Rector's combo cards aren't dead and it runs one or two more all-purpose tutors than the Hulk build. You still have to have a significant investment in the mana-base and both are vulnerable to the same grave hate. That just leaves the extra speed versus weight of the dead cards and the value of something like Demonic Tutor and Vamp vs. Summoner's Pact.

I don't feel like the decks are quite that close.  I feel like rector plays better cards overall, has a better backup plan, is better vs chalice and fails less catastrophically.

I disagree. The fact that Hulk Flash can find one half of its combo so easily essentially turns the kill into a one-card combo, which changes the value of certain cards. For instance, Scroll is much better in Hulk than in Rector. Same goes for Brainstorm.

Also, Dark Ritual and Merchant Scroll don't play too well together. The exception was Ritual Gifts, where Scroll could fetch Gifts and power it out with Ritual. But in the Rector build they have a distinct dis-synergy.

Overall while it may seem like Rector runs less "dead" cards, the truth is that there is a lot of subtle dis-synergies in the deck that ultimately makes the deck clunkier than I'd like, while Hulk runs more smoothly.

[Stamford]

Flash Hulk is just like any other "weak" combo deck that, if does not combo off on turn 1-2 just dies entirely to hate.

Honestly, there are so many cards that hate it and so many ways for control decks to out card advantage it.

Hulk Flash does not have a plan for recovery unlike combo decks like Pitch Long and Grim Long which can try to gain card/tempo advantage.

Once the initial momentum of Flash is gone, it is basically just dead meat. Comparable to Belcher and Tendrils SX.

Having a turn 1 kill in Vintage is really nothing much. Its being able to have it and still have resilience against hate that seperates the good "safe" skill-based combo decks from those of "unstable" hand-based combo decks.

[diopter]

Flash Hulk is just like any other "weak" combo deck that, if does not combo off on turn 1-2 just dies entirely to hate.

Honestly, there are so many cards that hate it and so many ways for control decks to out card advantage it.

Hulk Flash does not have a plan for recovery unlike combo decks like Pitch Long and Grim Long which can try to gain card/tempo advantage.

Once the initial momentum of Flash is gone, it is basically just dead meat. Comparable to Belcher and Tendrils SX.

Having a turn 1 kill in Vintage is really nothing much. Its being able to have it and still have resilience against hate that seperates the good "safe" skill-based combo decks from those of "unstable" hand-based combo decks.

Flash is not Belcher. Flash is not Meandeck Tendrils. Flash is so much better than either of these decks, they are not even remotely comparable. Play Flash against an opponent with FoW in hand and this will become evident.

Flash does not need to out-card-advantage its opponents. The kill is so consistently fast and protected that the first Thirst for Knowledge or the first Gifts or sometimes even the Ancestral Recall is not going to matter.

Flash does have certain pressure points that can be exploited, namely the graveyard. Flash is also perfectly capable of fighting this hate. It will not always be successful, but it can fight back in ways that Belcher or Meandeck Tendrils can only dream about. As well, many opponents will make the mistake of overloading on hate and losing anyway instead of using the tempo that a single piece of hate buys to win.

I think you are severely underestimating the strength of Flash. It's not invincible, but it's by no means weak.

[Xman]

I think you are severely underestimating the strength of Flash. It's not invincible, but it's by no means weak.

I think that is happening and will happen until someone pilots a Flash deck to a good showing in a major tournament.  I am completely lost on Hulk-Flash, but I really like Rector-Flash.  Unfortanatly, it does feel clunky, and I am sure teams will be getting smootherversions of one and/or both of these decks.  One team will make a showing playing these decks.  In a way, they remind me of the old Hulk Smash & GAT decks.  They had so much raw power that they made a showing despite being "hated out of the meta" and still do occasionnaly make showings.  I think the same is with Flash.  It is a different type of deck than other combo decks out there, but it still needs work & people are not going to take it as seriously until it makes a showing.  I feel it has potential in Type 1, and I feel it will have a divergence course in Type 1 as Hulk-Flash & Rector-Flash continue to split, heading off in seperate directions.

The concept is a good one, and it has potential.  It just needs a little (or a lot) of work to get them great, aswell as getting them piloted by players over other decks in tournaments.