[Article] Getting Vintage Back on Track: The Case Against Ichorid by Cody Vinci

[c dizzle]

Okay, this thread has actually motivated me. I will find ways to demonstrate, with playtesting and the data from those sessions, that better deckbuilding can improve the Ichorid match-up without diluting match-ups against the rest of a theoretical metagame.

Give me a deck you want to test (I'll use Dragon if nobody has a better idea) and suggest three decks (in addition to Ichorid) that we want in our gauntlet. I will test with my team and report back.

This can be done and I'll prove it.

[Ufactor]

Is it just fair to assume that you can now clearly outline the rock-paper-scissors of the format: Drain-Tendrils>Stax>Ichorid>Drain-Tendrils?

[AngryPheldagrif]

It would seem that chances of Ichorid winning a tournament are inversely proportional to the amount of players attending.  Just because Ichorid is not winning major tournaments, doesn't mean it's not winning.  The deck can be, right now, flying under the radar, and ruining all of the small tournaments that take place in New England and the southeast every month.

So that is not to say that Ichorid is not ruining the format, or that it is not murdering the meta game on a regular basis.  It just means that the deck is only unfair in a smaller demographic than we realize.

This is significant if it is affecting enough players, so please don't write this off as not being "ones that count".

It comes down to statistical relevance versus personal anecdote. The chances of any deck winning a particular tournament are inversely proportional to the amount of players attending, while directly proportional to the amount of players playing said deck. This has nothing to do with Ichorid being better or worse, it is simply a function of probability serving only to reinforce that smaller tournaments are a much worse indicator of actual prowess than larger-scale tournaments.

Is it just fair to assume that you can now clearly outline the rock-paper-scissors of the format: Drain-Tendrils>Stax>Ichorid>Drain-Tendrils?

Well considering we are less than 48 hours into the new restrictions, I'd saying jumping to the conclusion of a three-axis metagame based entirely on conjecture and completely ignoring a number of powerful and potentially powerful archetypes is precisely the worst thing to do. Not only does this assume things like Slaver, Oath, Long, Shop Aggro, Painter, etc., won't be on that level, it also somehow reaches the conclusion that DT, Ichorid, and Stax will be.

Such hypothesizing is neither warranted, supported, nor relevant to this thread.

[LordHomerCat]

Is it just fair to assume that you can now clearly outline the rock-paper-scissors of the format: Drain-Tendrils>Stax>Ichorid>Drain-Tendrils?

Seriously?  That's definitely not where I would assume the metagame would go.  I would think its much more likely that you have Slaver > Shops > Ritual Combo, with decks like Ichorid beating up on shops but losing to anyone willing to hate it out, drain tendrils beating up shops but having a tough time against the other two, etc.  Slaver, some Stax deck (probably not 9sphere), and Grimlong/other Ritual Combo are where I would start.

As to the topic at hand, I don't like having to devote half my board to ichorid either, and I really dislike how it plays vintage compared to everyone else, but its definitely not too good and is hardly unfair compared to the rest of the format.  If you had to restrict something, hitting Serum Powder forces them to play with mana, which makes them much more similar to the rest of the format (and easier to fight because of it).  However, until this metagame shakes out, it seems really dumb to try and argue that something should get restricted when we dont even know where Ichorid will end up.

[Ufactor]

It would seem that chances of Ichorid winning a tournament are inversely proportional to the amount of players attending.  Just because Ichorid is not winning major tournaments, doesn't mean it's not winning.  The deck can be, right now, flying under the radar, and ruining all of the small tournaments that take place in New England and the southeast every month.

So that is not to say that Ichorid is not ruining the format, or that it is not murdering the meta game on a regular basis.  It just means that the deck is only unfair in a smaller demographic than we realize.

This is significant if it is affecting enough players, so please don't write this off as not being "ones that count".

It comes down to statistical relevance versus personal anecdote. The chances of any deck winning a particular tournament are inversely proportional to the amount of players attending, while directly proportional to the amount of players playing said deck. This has nothing to do with Ichorid being better or worse, it is simply a function of probability serving only to reinforce that smaller tournaments are a much worse indicator of actual prowess than larger-scale tournaments.

Is it just fair to assume that you can now clearly outline the rock-paper-scissors of the format: Drain-Tendrils>Stax>Ichorid>Drain-Tendrils?

Well considering we are less than 48 hours into the new restrictions, I'd saying jumping to the conclusion of a three-axis metagame based entirely on conjecture and completely ignoring a number of powerful and potentially powerful archetypes is precisely the worst thing to do. Not only does this assume things like Slaver, Oath, Long, Shop Aggro, Painter, etc., won't be on that level, it also somehow reaches the conclusion that DT, Ichorid, and Stax will be.

Such hypothesizing is neither warranted, supported, nor relevant to this thread.

You are absolutely correct.  It's not my intent to pigeon hole the entire format into one equation, nor start a tier discussion.  What I was merely attempting to illustrate is that it makes about as much sense to pilot Drain-Tenrils in a field of Ichorid, as it does to bring Ichorid into the Workshop-Land.

[Moxlotus]

I think this thread has relevance to the discussion.

http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=36046.msg501513;boardseen#new

[vartemis]

I think this thread has relevance to the discussion.

http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=36046.msg501513;boardseen#new

How so?  I don't think it helps either side.  It is a 20 person tournament that was apparently poorly advertised and poorly run.  I don't see any useful information that would be constructive for either view.

I don't think any fair judgment from tournament results can be made for at least a month (if even then); until we can get a good view of how ichorid performs in the new environment.  I have been following this thread, and I have yet to see any concrete proof to show that it's a problem in the new meta.  I am neither for nor against the deck (I do play it on occasion among other decks), but I do think this entire thread is rather preemptive and a knee-jerk response to the restriction list.  How many tournaments have been played utilizing the new B&R list?  What data do we have to base our arguments with?

While I do not dismiss that some people don't enjoy playing against the deck, I also think that we all need to sit back and see where the chips fall.  When we have enough data to work with, then we can determine what, if any, effect ichorid is having and whether something needs to be done about it.

j

[Zherbus]

I think what MoxLotus was referring to was that Ichorid, sans SIDEBOARD and Serum Powder, could lawnmow it's way through swiss.

[Xyre]

I think this thread has relevance to the discussion.

http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=36046.msg501513;boardseen#new

In as much as it demonstrates that luxackery and randomness apply to Vintage as with all formats?

[Tha Gunslinga]

A 20-person tourney with no top 8 that no one heard about in advance somehow has relevance?  I think not.  Meadbert went into Richmond's SCG day 1 as top seed I believe, but then he lost in top 8 or top 4.  Just the swiss results are a poor indicator of how good a deck is.

[Zherbus]

I guess it depends on how you look at it.

On one hand, you could be the kind of person that says, "Yeah, Ichorid defeated a tiny-ass irrelevant tournament... again. So what?"

On the other hand, you could be the kind of person that says, "I think it's important to pay attention to how decks do on a grassroots level."

And if you were a circus freak, on the other other hand, you could be the kind of person that says, "I don't really care so much if it's putting results up in either insignificant events or big events. Fuck top 8 results. What I really care about is that people, who are putting Vintage on trial as a tournament format they want to support, are getting defeated by a very low interactive monstrosity.

"Sure, if they were smarter or better prepared it would happen a ton less, but it's still putting acid in the soil. Perhaps people are deciding to get into Vintage or stay involved with it. Perhaps people are debating whether they want to drive 5-6 hours to an event or not risk getting blown out. I understand that Vintage will always have that random "Oops, I won!" aspect to it, but where does the line get drawn?"

All of those are perfectly valid and reasoned views, but I think all three should be taken into account. Making gray areas into black and white never gets us anywhere.

Obviously, I have concerns along the lines of the third arm, but I recognize the relevance of the first two arms. Personally, I would gladly play against 5 rounds of Ichorid without modifying a list I have set for the total environment because it's totally beatable. However, I just don't like the effect it has on morale of those who could have become more dedicated Vintage players.  Despite that, we're not changing anything anytime soon. WotC knows, fully, the value of Ichorid in Vintage. It had a respectable presence at the Invitational and they do pay attention.

All of that said, I think the best thing to do going forward is for those who have little issue beating Ichorid to discuss it more and share that knowledge.

[vartemis]

If you are looking for more data, here is another tournament report.  Although Tool doesn't beat ichorid, he does tie and admits that he could have likely beat it had he not made a play error game 3.  Unfortunately we don't know what the meta was, what decks were present, where the ichorid deck finished, or even how many players were there.

j

[Harlequin]

It's also important to note that right now we are still all walking into an unknown meta.  So even if you are a typical tempo/control/fish player you might feel more comfortable bringing a combo deck, or a deck like Ichorid to a tournement where you have no idea what anyone is playing.   At least in the short term, playing a less interactive, well astablished deck is a fair approach to scope out the new pool and test the waters. 

Give it a month or two and see what meta-decks are out there and I'll bet dollar to donuts that ichorid will be back down to less than 10% of the meta.

[Raitoken]

Anyone who thinks that this deck needs to be restricted or removed from the format needs to lighten up.

This deck has so much hate against it right now its almost impossible to win a tournament. Someone posted the numbers above but something like 1 1st place win in 30+ tournaments with like 9% of it in the field for top 8 wins.

Stax is more consistent then this and thats fine?

If you really really hate ichorid then go play it at a tournament and playtest with it, you will see the flaws in it to the point you can see why the best players neither play nor worry about the matchup.

Manaless ichorid can't win turn 1 and winning turn 2 is hard without a little luck assuming no disruption.

Mana ichorid can win turn one but its less then a 5% chance which is less then grim long or most of the tendril decks out there and thats assuming a lot of luck with dredging.

And for those siding in leyline of the void as an answer need to really stop. Think about it, if most ichorid decks run enchantment removal then play with a non-enchantment disruption. Tormods Crypt is better for such things and unless countered is garenteed to remove a discard pile and is useful in slaver and tendril matches(not saying its the best choice tho).

There are so many cards to counter this deck its not even funny, jailer, sac creatures, extirpate, tormods crypt, pithing needle, wasteland/stripmine, leyline, planar void, and a few others.

Its easy to counter if you know the deck from the inside.

This deck is so inconsistant that I am dropping it for grim long which even through disruption can win where this has a hard time.

And here is something to think about, the best players don't worry nor do they play ichorid, why should they? Unless it turn 1's them going first its not a good enough deck to worry about.

I think its more the casual vintage players who are crying about it becuase they don't know how to properly handle it.

[Almighty]

I'll bite on Zherbus's last line. I have been having a great amount of success against ichorid playing my Ponies! deck. A single sphere effect is all it really takes to prevent them from casting their key spell, Cabal Therapy. I often find it a better move to strip their random mana sources rather than their Bazaar for that reason. If they pull out enough mana, I'll use the Swords I've been holding to nail their Ichorids during their upkeep. This combination plus a clock of a few dorks is usually enough to pop out a win. Basically, avoid letting Bridges trigger as much as you can.

I mean, Bazaar is obviously still a huge target and generally hit first. But Wasteland is a far more versatile tool against ichorid in this deck than most others and must be used wisely. It depends on the level of sphere effects you have at your disposal. Crypt is another card that needs to be used very carefully; be sure to hold off to remove as many cards as possible with it, but one monster bridge trigger is all it can take to drop you.

Granted, Ponies! is a deck that many players tend to not prefer since the average vintage player is a pretty dedicated blue mage, but perhaps my strategies can be of use to those pining for a way to strike this ichorid down.

For reference, while my list changes somewhat frequently, this is a somewhat recent version posted here: http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=35901.0