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Author Topic: Knowing What's Important: Understanding Match-Ups  (Read 2652 times)
Stormanimagus
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« on: June 16, 2009, 11:33:26 pm »

Hey Vintage Community!

So I’ve been meaning to make a thread on this topic for a while, but haven’t had a free couple of hours to do it yet.
   My biggest beef with new players and semi-experienced players alike is that they often fail to understand what is important in a given match-up. They assume that winning is a function of stopping X when really all they are doing is pro-longing the inevitable. X isn’t the problem at all and they miss the true foil the strategy and, in turn, victory of their opponent. Now, I’m not saying I’m the Vintage guru who is the authority on how to be a great Vintage player (that’s one of the reasons I want input on this forum), but I do think I have a good deal of experience with certain deck archetypes (namely Fish- especially Selkie-Strike Fish that I helped create-, TPS and other Storm variants, UR Landstill etc.) and can offer some valuable insight into how to plan for/play the deck as well as against it.

First let me start with my current obsession: Fish. Namely Fish Variants running Cold-Eyed Selkie & Noble Hierarch.

Ok. I’m going to talk about a couple match-ups with this deck. Let’s start with The Perfect Storm.
   
Selkie-Strike vs. TPS.
1. What do I name with Meddling Mage? This is a common misplay that players make because they simply don’t realize how a TPS build runs. I see so many players saying things like Yawgmoth’s Will and even Tendrils of Agony (which is basically almost always wrong) and missing how a TPS deck runs. Tinker is marginally a better card to name and, in certain circumstances can be the right choice, but only because it can be a top-deck that can win the game for TPS when you have a lot of other hate present to keep them off the Tendrils Kill. However, I’d say that a good first card to name vs. TPS will often be Dark Ritual. Here’s why:

2. A typical TPS list runs 6 Tutors that can dig up Chain Of Vapor very efficiently. These tutors are DT, VT, MT, Imp. Seal, Grim Tutor, Merchant Scroll. This means they have essentially 7 copies of Chain Of Vapor in their deck if they run 1 Chain. If you add in the digging power of Necropotence, Yawgmoth’s Bargain, Mind’s Desire, Brainstorm, Ponder, Memory Jar, FoF, Gifts, Timetwister then you begin to see that TPS is a well greased digging and tutoring machine. Hence, going for a Meddling Mage on Yawgmoth’s Will only prolongs the inevitable and the opponent will simply bounce the MM while going off or find a way to win that isn’t Will-Based (Tinker, Draw 7’s, Desire). If this is the case most of the time then players naming Will are wasting the use of MM and missing what is important. You want to stop the Storm player from developing position and buy yourself time to develop yours. If you name Dark Ritual you now make Bargain and Necropotence far more difficult to cast early. You also hamper the mana for Desire, Gifts, FoF, and Yawgmoth’s Will itself. Sure they could potentially still go busted with Lotus + Cabal Ritual + Will, but the odds of that are a lot less likely than when Ritual (4-of) is cut off.
   Now there are times when a card like Tinker might be the right call, but I’d say that’s generally when you’re ahead and have the Storm route cut off. Since it is actually possible to race an Inkwell Leviathan late-game with Goyfs if you already have their life-total low, I’d only use MM on Tinker if I was basically sure I’d locked them out of the Tendrils Kill (Multiple Hate on Table with Daze and/or FoW in hand).

3. Thirdly, many folks don’t often use the best SB cards possible against Storm. I think Ethersworn Canonist is solid, but I also think that it is not enough by itself. The problem with Canonist is that it will often be overkill on a strategy that a good TPS player will abandon the moment they see that you are running annoying disruptive critters. The moment they see you dropping cards like Meddling Mage or Tarmogoyf or Noble Hierarch in the early game they will instinctively move to a line of play ending in a resolved Tinker to try and pull off the win. Any good Storm Pilot understands that the % of Tendrils wins they will get against you should be far less than the % of Inkwell-Swing x3 FTW. TPS can pull this off with ease and can easily survive 3 turns following the resolution of Tinker by FoWing your creatures or Bouncing any Goyf that tries to race. They will slow down to your pace of the game and wait for that moment to resolve Tinker. Canonist is also an artifact so it falls prey to many bounce spells that TPS pretty much always runs (3 MD answers for which there are 6 MD tutors. 1 Chain Of Vapor, 1 Hurkyl’s Recall and 1 Rebuild). With cards like Aven Mindcensor and Children of Korlis there is just 1 answer in Chain Of Vapor. The other thing about Mindcensor is that it pulls double duty. It’s a reactive answer to Tinker and that can be clutch when you are making your TPS opponent to commit 2U AND an artifact only to waste it on a dud Tinker. Mindcensor also shuts down their 7 MD tutors and 4-6 MD Fetches. It is a clock to boot and you don’t have to play it on your turn so you can bluff Daze or Stifle Mana. Mindcensor is one of the best SB options out there because it beats up on Tezzeret as well (perhaps more than TPS). Children Of Korlis is an underrated hate card for TPS as it is so cheap and does its job very efficiently. It shuts off “the big turn” and forces the opponent to bounce it or not win. I’d say that Children is better than Canonist in some ways and worse in others. It's a tough call on which to run in the SB but I think one or the other are necessary. Mindcensor should really be in most every Fish SB that can support it as a 2-4 of. Aight, that’s all I go for the TPS matchup for now. As I think of more I’ll edit it in.


TPS vs. Mystic Remora Tezzeret
1. All right, sometimes people say that they simply need to nuke a match-up, but I’d rather not let myself off the hook that easily. Now, I haven’t really played this match-up at all in tournaments, but I’ll offer what insight that I think I can. The power of TPS is its flexibility and ability to find answers quickly while setting up for “the big turn”. Obviously the card Mystic Remora in a deck filled with counter-magic and commandeers is going to pose a problem for TPS but there are ways to fight it. I choose an approach of running extra SB Chain Of Vapors to fight it and simply trying to EOT bounce it and then “Go off” the following turn. Remora is a challenging match-up and I’d often say that the best bet is to simply throw a lot of “must counters” their way like Tinker or Gifts or Necro or Bargain and see if you can get one to stick. I’d actually like some more discussion on this match-up because I think it is a match-up that keeps a lot of potential TPS players from giving TPS a try in the tournament scene.

TPS vs. 9-Sphere Welder Shop Aggro
1. The deck should not really be a huge problem for TPS and usually I see TPS players either misplaying or Mis-designing their SB. Stephen Menendian has talked about this in many articles and I agree with him.
      The best way to deal with 9-Sphere terrors is to simply run a lot of Lands in your deck (with a high basic count and like 2-3 in the SB) as well as a decent variety of Mass bounce effects (Usually I go with 1 MD Chain Of Vapor + 1 MD Hurkyl’s Recall + 1 MD Rebuild with 2-3 SB Hurkyl’s Recall). Since Shops to do not run FoW and don’t often run Juggernaut anymore you should be able to have just enough turns to win before they lock out completely/beat FTW. Tinker can also be a very effective out here as well as Necropotence if you are under a Sphere effect.


All, right, I’m tired and need sleep or I’m going to get even more sick than I am, but I’d love your input on the match-ups I’ve already discussed. Specifically I want this forum to be a place the Vintage community can:

1.   Ask me, or any other player, for match-up advice
2.   Ask me, or any other player for advice on piloting their deck more cleanly.
3.   Discuss Tournament Report data that might illuminate more about a match-up.
4.   Talk about common misconceptions in “what’s important” for a deck they face off against frequently or a deck they pilot frequently (Stephen did a great job of doing this in a recent article about Dredge, a deck, which, among others, I have little to no experience playing with or against).

All right! Let the discussion begin!

Peace,

-Storm

EDIT: I will be adding more match-ups + analysis to this opening post when I have the time/data to back my claims substantially. I'd like discussion to help give me ideas. In other words. What do you think is most important for your pet-deck in beating the field? How does your pet-deck beat its worst matchup? That sort of thing is what I'm looking to see people discuss in this forum.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2009, 10:25:24 pm by Stormanimagus » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2009, 11:01:38 am »

No interest in discussing the stuff I brought up with this thread? Do people just blatantly disagree with all the points I made in the intro post? I'd like to hear people's thoughts.
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« Reply #2 on: June 17, 2009, 11:19:27 am »

I disagree in your assesment of cannonist, i think it's the best SB card against any storm deck, they HAVE to remove it to win, and they can never do so with counter back-up...And duress cannot be cast the same turn, thus it will slow them down by alot. And i'd never run children of korlis.

Can't comment on tps vs. remora.

And you are pretty much spot on with tps vs. shops...just play basics and bounce.

/Zeus
« Last Edit: June 17, 2009, 12:43:13 pm by zeus-online » Logged

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« Reply #3 on: June 17, 2009, 11:19:47 am »


Selkie-Strike vs. TPS.
1. What do I name with Meddling Mage? This is a common misplay that players make because they simply don’t realize how a TPS build runs. I see so many players saying things like Yawgmoth’s Will and even Tendrils of Agony (which is basically almost always wrong) and missing how a TPS deck runs. Tinker is marginally a better card to name and, in certain circumstances can be the right choice, but only because it can be a top-deck that can win the game for TPS when you have a lot of other hate present to keep them off the Tendrils Kill. However, I’d say that a good first card to name vs. TPS will often be Dark Ritual. Here’s why:

2. A typical TPS list runs 6 Tutors that can dig up Chain Of Vapor very efficiently. These tutors are DT, VT, MT, Imp. Seal, Grim Tutor, Merchant Scroll. This means they have essentially 7 copies of Chain Of Vapor in their deck if they run 1 Chain. If you add in the digging power of Necropotence, Yawgmoth’s Bargain, Mind’s Desire, Brainstorm, Ponder, Memory Jar, FoF, Gifts, Timetwister then you begin to see that TPS is a well greased digging and tutoring machine. Hence, going for a Meddling Mage on Yawgmoth’s Will only prolongs the inevitable and the opponent will simply bounce the MM while going off or find a way to win that isn’t Will-Based (Tinker, Draw 7’s, Desire). If this is the case most of the time then players naming Will are wasting the use of MM and missing what is important. You want to stop the Storm player from developing position and buy yourself time to develop yours. If you name Dark Ritual you now make Bargain and Necropotence far more difficult to cast early. You also hamper the mana for Desire, Gifts, FoF, and Yawgmoth’s Will itself. Sure they could potentially still go busted with Lotus + Cabal Ritual + Will, but the odds of that are a lot less likely than when Ritual (4-of) is cut off.
   Now there are times when a card like Tinker might be the right call, but I’d say that’s generally when you’re ahead and have the Storm route cut off. Since it is actually possible to race an Inkwell Leviathan late-game with Goyfs if you already have their life-total low, I’d only use MM on Tinker if I was basically sure I’d locked them out of the Tendrils Kill (Multiple Hate on Table with Daze and/or FoW in hand).

3. Thirdly, many folks don’t often use the best SB cards possible against Storm. I see a lot of Ethersworn Canonists, and, while they can be good, I’d run Aven Mindcensor and/or Children Of Korlis over Canonist any day. If you are running Canonist you run the risk of them just bypassing their plan A and Tinker/Inkwelling you FTW and you are also opening yourself up to 3 MD answers for which there are 6 MD tutors. 1 Chain Of Vapor, 1 Hurkyl’s Recall and 1 Rebuild. With Mindcensor and Children there is just 1 answer in Chain Of Vapor. The other thing about Mindcensor is that it pulls double duty. It’s a reactive answer to Tinker and that can be clutch when you are making your TPS opponent to commit 2U AND an artifact only to waste it on a dud Tinker. Mindcensor also shuts down their 7 MD tutors and 4-6 MD Fetches. It is a clock to boot and you don’t have to play it on your turn so you can bluff Daze or Stifle Mana. Mindcensor is one of the best SB options out there and it is actually in my current MD in place of Stifle because I think it is extremely relevant hate for Tezzeret as well. Children Of Korlis is an underrated hate card for TPS as it is so cheap and does its job very efficiently. It shuts off “the big turn” and forces the opponent to bounce it or not win. I’d rather use Children over Canonist any day. Aight, that’s all I go for the TPS matchup for now. As I think of more I’ll edit it in.


Point 1: Your disruption piece (Meddling Mage) should target the deck's engine, because there are too many outputs to attack.
Point 2: Your disruption piece (Children) should target the deck's outputs, because it's more efficient to do that.

See the logical disconnect?

TPS vs. Mystic Remora Tezzeret
1. All right, sometimes people say that they simply need to nuke a match-up, but I’d rather not let myself off the hook that easily. Now, I haven’t really played this match-up at all in tournaments, but I’ll offer what insight that I think I can. The power of TPS is its flexibility and ability to find answers quickly while setting up for “the big turn”. Obviously the card Mystic Remora in a deck filled with counter-magic and commandeers is going to pose a problem for TPS but there are ways to fight it. I choose an approach of running extra SB Chain Of Vapors to fight it and simply trying to EOT bounce it and then “Go off” the following turn. Remora is a challenging match-up and I’d often say that the best bet is to simply throw a lot of “must counters” their way like Tinker or Gifts or Necro or Bargain and see if you can get one to stick. I’d actually like some more discussion on this match-up because I think it is a match-up that keeps a lot of potential TPS players from giving TPS a try in the tournament scene.
Your way of dealing with Remora's turn-to-turn incremental advantage game is to... play turn by turn, throwing out 'must counters' that they keep pace with naturally via their principal engine.  That's like saying: "the way I beat Control Slaver is by slowing the pace and playing for the late game."


TPS vs. 9-Sphere Welder Shop Aggro
1. The deck should not really be a huge problem for TPS and usually I see TPS players either misplaying or Mis-designing their SB. Stephen Menendian has talked about this in many articles and I agree with him.
      The best way to deal with 9-Sphere terrors is to simply run a lot of Lands in your deck (with a high basic count and like 2-3 in the SB) as well as a decent variety of Mass bounce effects (Usually I go with 1 MD Chain Of Vapor + 1 MD Hurkyl’s Recall + 1 MD Rebuild with 2-3 SB Hurkyl’s Recall). Since Shops to do not run FoW and don’t often run Juggernaut anymore you should be able to have just enough turns to win before they lock out completely/beat FTW. Tinker can also be a very effective out here as well as Necropotence if you are under a Sphere effect.


TPS was built to beat Shops.  Therefore, if Shops are giving you fits, you shouldn't play it.  That's an oversimplification - there've been drastic changes in design - but ironically, while Shops had changed a lot from TPS's advent to, say, 2006, the current heavy-Sphere design I'm seeing the most of is actually more reminiscent of the lists that TPS was designed to wreck.
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« Reply #4 on: June 17, 2009, 12:18:14 pm »

3. Thirdly, many folks don’t often use the best SB cards possible against Storm. I see a lot of Ethersworn Canonists, and, while they can be good, I’d run Aven Mindcensor and/or Children Of Korlis over Canonist any day. If you are running Canonist you run the risk of them just bypassing their plan A and Tinker/Inkwelling you FTW and you are also opening yourself up to 3 MD answers for which there are 6 MD tutors. 1 Chain Of Vapor, 1 Hurkyl’s Recall and 1 Rebuild. With Mindcensor and Children there is just 1 answer in Chain Of Vapor. The other thing about Mindcensor is that it pulls double duty. It’s a reactive answer to Tinker and that can be clutch when you are making your TPS opponent to commit 2U AND an artifact only to waste it on a dud Tinker. Mindcensor also shuts down their 7 MD tutors and 4-6 MD Fetches. It is a clock to boot and you don’t have to play it on your turn so you can bluff Daze or Stifle Mana. Mindcensor is one of the best SB options out there and it is actually in my current MD in place of Stifle because I think it is extremely relevant hate for Tezzeret as well. Children Of Korlis is an underrated hate card for TPS as it is so cheap and does its job very efficiently. It shuts off “the big turn” and forces the opponent to bounce it or not win. I’d rather use Children over Canonist any day. Aight, that’s all I go for the TPS matchup for now. As I think of more I’ll edit it in.[/i]

When I've played Canonist vs. storm I don't fear tinker at all. Your only goal is to keep a counter in hand for their answer and tinker and you've just won.
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« Reply #5 on: June 28, 2009, 10:28:57 pm »

Hey all. I figured I'd try to revive this thread a bit! So I've changed a bit in the opening post regarding Ethersworn Canonist. I do think it can be useful in Sideboards, but I think it plays a very specific role and you need to decide if you think that is needed.

I'd also like to see what people think about the Shops matchup now that we have 4x Crop Rotation available. Is the 2-3 Extra Basics approach even viable anymore? Will things shift that quickly? Obviously 2-3 Hurkyl's Recall still seems solid, but what if the extra basics really do nothing in the face of 5x Strip Mine availability? Thoughts on this dilemma?
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« Reply #6 on: June 29, 2009, 11:59:23 am »

Quote
I'd also like to see what people think about the Shops matchup now that we have 4x Crop Rotation available. Is the 2-3 Extra Basics approach even viable anymore? Will things shift that quickly? Obviously 2-3 Hurkyl's Recall still seems solid, but what if the extra basics really do nothing in the face of 5x Strip Mine availability? Thoughts on this dilemma?

I don't see the extra crop rotations making a significant impact on the match.  Especially if people are going to be cutting better cards to fit them in.  Keep crucible off the board via Hurkyl's / chain of vapor and just win (i.e. find tinker) before you get strip locked.
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