Worldwake vintage predictions - vroman

[FlyFlySideOfFry]

This happens every time I post a new set review. A bunch of people who apparently have only passing familiarity with vintage start suggesting completely terrible cards.

As for Ricochet Trap, in what percentage of games vs blue does your opponent tutor for and cast Recall? 95%? In what percentage of games vs blue does your opponent tutor for and cast Tinker? 60%? Being able to severely punish the Recall line of play trumps losing the ability to counter Tinker. Thats my analysis anyway. I don't play either REB nor Misdirect, so it may be a subtle distinction, but Im confident Ricochet Trap is a viable among the oddball tier of counterspells.

I think some people are misinterpreting your tiers. (who knows maybe I am also XD) Ricochet Trap is "definitely playable" in the sense that it is a solid useable card, not that it will automatically get inserted into decklists. Am I getting that right?

[MirariKnight]

It's "definitely playable" in the sense that it interacts with the other cards in the format on an appropriately powerful level, and if a deck is looking for that type of effect it is one card that should certainly be considered. It is not "definitely playable" in the sense that it will be in every deck that taps for R, nor is it "definitely playable" in the sense that it auto-replaces other options.

[Beralt]

Sorry Vroman, I guess when it comes down to it, I don't expect Explore to be a big vintage hit, because typically - setting aside acceleration, it takes 2 land to cast and then you could lay another 2 land - how many decks in vintage need 4 land in play to win - I guess the answer is very few.  I just think that it may be a future possible card.

Talking of Richochet Trap, it's certainly has other uses, in some of the Painter decks out there, it becomes a Misdirection (without the pitch cost) for W.  Course that means you have to play White, but there are a some ways to produce white from the odd sources.

[Yare]

Sorry Vroman, I guess when it comes down to it, I don't expect Explore to be a big vintage hit, because typically - setting aside acceleration, it takes 2 land to cast and then you could lay another 2 land - how many decks in vintage need 4 land in play to win - I guess the answer is very few.  I just think that it may be a future possible card.

Talking of Richochet Trap, it's certainly has other uses, in some of the Painter decks out there, it becomes a Misdirection (without the pitch cost) for W.  Course that means you have to play White, but there are a some ways to produce white from the odd sources.

I'm fairly certain Ricochet Trap costs R, not W.

[Beralt]

Oops - Yare glad you caught my miscue. I looked at all the new traps before posting to see if their would be any applications for Painter and they are all are reasonable in standard, but have little application in Vintage other then Richochet - and in doing that confused the color of the card.  Red of course upgrades the playability of the card over white.

[BruiZar]

I would like to take you on a challenge and compare who predicted the most cards right.

Some obvious choices here. Seems like a good set

http://unpopularideasclub.blogspot.com/2010/01/worldwake-summary.html

Definite playable
Lodestone Golem Juggosphere will be all over the place in our most beloved vintage format

Bojuka Bog Only good with crop rotation or something that can bounce land each turn.

Natures Claim This will be big, Best disenchant ever. I am also going to play this with grove of the burnwillows/punishing fire and kavu predator in a berserk stompy-ish build.

Thada Adel Acquisitor it will get played, but not as much as people say it will. I think its presence in legacy will be greater than in vintage because he can steal sensei's divining top, engineered explosives, pithing needle and jitte in a format that has a tribal deck where he fits into and a format that is slow enough to support him. IN vintage people will test him, and find out he's not that good.

Ricochet Trap This will not get played. Divert isn't played over misdirection. Misdirection hardly sees play and red already has pyroblast and red elemental blast so it doesn't need a red misdirection.

Not Unlikely

Jace Mindsculptor Will get played alot, and is going to cost alot of money. Brainstorm + Bounce = good
Wind Zendikon

Anowon Ruin Sage Will get played in limited, but no other format. I don't like this dude.

Not Impossible
Terastodon This will not get played
Loam Lion sadly, this card will get played. RIP SAVANNAH LION AGAIN, WHEN WILL THEY STOP HUMILIATING MY BETA LIONS
Slavering Null I think he's good, not sure if he's fast enough because you absolutely need a hasty Slavering Null.
Dispell I don't believe in it

Definitely Not
Treasure Hunt legacy land.dec
Amulet of Vigor I like it with Thawing Glaciers, Halimar Depths, Teferi's Isle  and a gazillion other great lands that have CITP effects
Explore Scapeshift.dec

What you missed:

Eye of Ugin - I'm picking this up 4x foil. I'm even more convinced than before that this is the sleeper card. Buy it now or cry like you did with Tarmogoyf
Quest for Ula's Temple - Picking this up too. Limited/Extended bomb. Its a better aether vial
Dragonmaster Outcast - Depends on the price, its so much better than scute mob because scutemob requires 1x removal only. If you remove dragonmaster, the dragon will still be in play, if you remove the dragon, the master will make another dragon, so you need 2x removal once it gets active.

Halimar Depths - Good in every format, great selection. Sets up quest, can't be countered, great with fetch.

[nineisnoone]

Some obvious choices here. Seems like a good set

http://unpopularideasclub.blogspot.com/2010/01/worldwake-summary.html

Definite playable
Lodestone Golem
Bojuka Bog
Natures Claim
Thada Adel Acquisitor
Ricochet Trap

Not Unlikely
Jace Mindsculptor
Wind Zendikon
Anowon Ruin Sage

Not Impossible
Terastodon
Loam Lion
Slavering Null
Dispell

Definitely Not
Treasure Hunt
Amulet of Vigor
Explore

Boujka Bog - Even though it avoids Chalice, it's not better than tons of other cards that have a similar effect in my opinion.  I'd bump it down two notches.

Ricochet Trap - Bump it down a notch.  The thing is, it's red.  You can already Misdirection with blue.  If you are going to splash red, I'd imagine you'd want the more versatile REB.  I don't know if there is a deck where this would be picked over Misdirection, i.e. a deck lacking blue or heavy blue yet still being a control oriented deck.

Loam Lion - I'd bump it up a notch.  GW are very strong aggro colors now.  GW doesn't have all that great 1 drop options either.

I would like to take you on a challenge and compare who predicted the most cards right.

Some obvious choices here. Seems like a good set

http://unpopularideasclub.blogspot.com/2010/01/worldwake-summary.html

Definite playable
Lodestone Golem Juggosphere will be all over the place in our most beloved vintage format

Bojuka Bog Only good with crop rotation or something that can bounce land each turn.

Natures Claim This will be big, Best disenchant ever. I am also going to play this with grove of the burnwillows/punishing fire and kavu predator in a berserk stompy-ish build.

Thada Adel Acquisitor it will get played, but not as much as people say it will. I think its presence in legacy will be greater than in vintage because he can steal sensei's divining top, engineered explosives, pithing needle and jitte in a format that has a tribal deck where he fits into and a format that is slow enough to support him. IN vintage people will test him, and find out he's not that good.

Ricochet Trap This will not get played. Divert isn't played over misdirection. Misdirection hardly sees play and red already has pyroblast and red elemental blast so it doesn't need a red misdirection.

Not Unlikely

Jace Mindsculptor Will get played alot, and is going to cost alot of money. Brainstorm + Bounce = good

Wind Zendikon

Anowon Ruin Sage Will get played in limited, but no other format. I don't like this dude.

Not Impossible
Terastodon This will not get played
Loam Lion sadly, this card will get played. RIP SAVANNAH LION AGAIN, WHEN WILL THEY STOP HUMILIATING MY BETA LIONS
Slavering Null I think he's good, not sure if he's fast enough because you absolutely need a hasty Slavering Null.
Dispell I don't believe in it

Definitely Not
Treasure Hunt legacy land.dec
Amulet of Vigor I like it with Thawing Glaciers, Halimar Depths, Teferi's Isle  and a gazillion other great lands that have CITP effects
Explore Scapeshift.dec

What you missed:

Eye of Ugin - I'm picking this up 4x foil. I'm even more convinced than before that this is the sleeper card. Buy it now or cry like you did with Tarmogoyf
Quest for Ula's Temple - Picking this up too. Limited/Extended bomb. Its a better aether vial
Dragonmaster Outcast - Depends on the price, its so much better than scute mob because scutemob requires 1x removal only. If you remove dragonmaster, the dragon will still be in play, if you remove the dragon, the master will make another dragon, so you need 2x removal once it gets active.

Halimar Depths - Good in every format, great selection. Sets up quest, can't be countered, great with fetch.

Thada - I think you are wrong on Thada.  I think this pushes Noble builds a good amount and it's also a great card for Tezzeret.  Great in the mirror (screw assembling my own Vault/Key).  Great against opposing Thada's (Legendary).  Great in general (I'll take whatever artifact mana you got).  

Jace - Not sure if you are talking about "alot" in terms of Vintage.  I definitely think he's a worthwhile card for Vintage, but I wouldn't say "alot."

Assuming your adds are for other formats.

[vroman]

I would like to take you on a challenge and compare who predicted the most cards right.

What you missed:

Eye of Ugin - I'm picking this up 4x foil. I'm even more convinced than before that this is the sleeper card. Buy it now or cry like you did with Tarmogoyf
Quest for Ula's Temple - Picking this up too. Limited/Extended bomb. Its a better aether vial
Dragonmaster Outcast - Depends on the price, its so much better than scute mob because scutemob requires 1x removal only. If you remove dragonmaster, the dragon will still be in play, if you remove the dragon, the master will make another dragon, so you need 2x removal once it gets active.

Halimar Depths - Good in every format, great selection. Sets up quest, can't be countered, great with fetch.

Im only concerned with vintage. I have no input as to what WW cards will be viable in other formats.

Ricochet- I don't think either REB nor Misdirect are worth playing personally, but they are definitely in the vintage canon. Ricochet is a comparable cost+effect.
Thada Adel- be aware if you connect twice with this vs Time vault decks, you get inf turns yourself. I could see it even being sideboarded in Tez-style decks for the mirror.
Loam Lion - GW currently plays chock full of disruption guys. The only slot that Kird Lion is competing for is vs Tgoyf. 1 vs 2c makes a huge difference in vintage, and sometimes Tgoyf will linger at 2/3 for awhile, so maybe 1drop version is better. I doubt it, but Im satisfied with my placing it on the list.

[BruiZar]

You might be right about thada adel. I may be underestimating it a bit.

[ilpeggiore]

will be played:

golem, natures claim
Bojuka Bog (if chain + fow will be the common icho-side )

rarely :

loam lion

maybe

Thada Adel Acquisitor
Ricochet Trap

[turn3ionawin]

theda adel is going to be a fish staple hands down. Against stacks and tezz you just play their game. Theda adel lands hits target stacks player you play their crucibal of worlds and proceed just shut them down completely with any strip mine/ wastelands effect. Tezz is slightly more intersting taking their vault key is potentially really good but also scary if they can bounce them to their hand play them and win. However thedas first hit you check their deck for first trinker, then tutors, and then those key pieces to their win strategy. If they drew their bot you remove time vault and pretty much put them on the edge as long as they dont resolve a hard cast inkwell you probably have the game set easy. Vs mirror who wasnt playing Theda game two i went turn one land mox hierach lotus theda go. He played land hierach mox pearl. Theda lands a hit i take his jitte play it and proceed to destroy him because he cant do anything about my getting one a beat stick and two a jitte out of his deck.

Trygon will probably always have a sideboard spot in fish at least because it gives you some needed versatility vs other decks but i would be greatly surprised to not see Theda floating around a lot.