This answer presumes little to no familiarity with Vintage deckbuilding, so as to provide the most information possible to someone new to the format. For those of you who are more experienced with Vintage, please forgive the occasional statements of the obvious.
Size Does MatterThe most general rule of thumb I can provide is that Vintage decks, depending on the factors below, should have, at a minimum, 21 mana sources and, at maximum, 26 (more if you count rituals).
I think the following considerations are relevant to the size of your manabase:
1. The presence of mana denial decks in your metagame.
2. The mana cost of your deck's big plays.
3. Your access to efficient card draw and selection.
Jeff Carpenter, aka "Harlequin," once said that the manabase is the most neglected aspect of a deck. For the most part, I agree. I think that players tend to focus more on their spells than their mana, because spells have a much more visible effect on games. It's easier to remember how awesome that Misdirection on your opponent's Ancestral was than it is to keep in mind that you were one mana short of playing Will with Drain backup for the win in another game. Also, players tend to write off deficiencies in their manabase to bad draws.
Metagame considerationsPlayers' focus on their manabases is directly correlated with how well-represented mana denial decks are in their metagame. In other words, Fish and Stax force players to think about their manabases-- and punish those who don't. But without that incentive, I've noticed players (myself included) cut corners and skimp on lands to accommodate more spells.
So building a manabase is, I think first and foremost, metagame-dependent. As a general rule, in a field dominated by blue-based control, ritual-based combo, or other decks that don't attack my lands, I think smaller is better. Especially now, when good card advantage and selection mechanisms are hard to find, you don't want to topdeck an Underground Sea when you're hoping for an answer to your opponent's Tezzeret, or use Sensei's Divining Top into land, Mox, Mana Crypt when you're digging for that extra counter in a control battle.
For example, in today's Shop-heavy metagame, I run an Oath deck with 24 sources. Ordinarily that would be a lot of mana to support an engine that only needs 1G to work, but I need to keep in mind the high number of Sphere effects and Wastelands that I have to be prepared to encounter over and over again. As a matter of fact, for the first time ever in my Vintage career, I'm running a basic Forest in my Oath deck right now, to ensure I'm able to play my main threat, Oath of Druids, in the face of multiple Waste effects.
By contrast, in 2008's Gush-centered metagame, my Oath deck had fewer sources. 22, I think. Without Spheres and Wastelands to worry about, my primary focus was drawing into as much business as possible, to keep pace with other control and combo decks who were trying to do the same thing.
Supporting your engine That being said, don't go crazy. While you do want to build your deck in such a way as to avoid flooding yourself, you also want to make sure your manabase is going to allow you to reliably play your threats. For a good example of the problems you might face if you short-change your manabase, look at my Top 8
report from Waterbury in January 2007. I cut corners on my manabase to enable more counters, tricks, and threats. So, because I didn't encounter the problem of flooding out or drawing lands when hoping for gas, I dominated the blue-based control and ritual-based combo matches that I played throughout the day. But on the other hand, look at my losses. Every single game I dropped in the tournament, including my Top 8 match loss, was attributable to being mana-shorted.
Gifts was a pretty demanding deck in terms of mana cost. Gifts Ungiven costs 3U, and sometimes I needed 5, or even 7 mana to leverage Gifts into a win with followup plays like Recoup -> Will with Drain backup. Unless I could hit that critical threshold of at least 4 mana to play my threats, my deck didn't work. While the Gifts era of 2007 didn't feature a large complement of mana denial decks, encouraging me to skimp on my mana, Wastelands weren't completely absent. And sometimes all it took to knock me off my feet was a single well-timed Waste. If I had drawn even one more land in game 3 of my Top 8 match, I'm confident I would have won. But I misbuilt my mana, and paid for it with a loss.
Conversely, look at Oath. As noted above, its primary line of play costs half as much mana as Gifts. Look my decklist for
ELD's Mox XI. I ran a much smaller manabase, because my plays weren't nearly as mana-intensive as Gifts Ungiven.
Access to card draw and selectionThe last factor I consider when building a manabase is access to card draw and selection. I remember reading somewhere, though I can't recall exactly where, that a good rule of thumb is that 2 card draw spells are equal to 1 mana source in determining the size of your manabase. Obviously this rule has its limits, since a deck with 60 draw spells in it won't function like a deck with 30 lands. Also, I think how far the rule goes depends on the power level of your draw spells. Brainstorm was one of the best unrestricted draw spells that format has ever seen, and I'd be very comfortable counting 2 Brainstorms as a land under most circumstances. By contrast, Fact or Fiction, Gifts Ungiven, and Skeletal Scrying all take a significant amount of mana to get off the ground, and so you probably can't rely on them to get your manabase going. Similarly, weaker cantrips like Opt or Sleight of Hand have limited reach and won't find more mana for you as reliably as Brainstorm can.
This card draw = 1/2 land philosophy really cemented my smaller manabase during the Gush era. I had Brainstorm, Ponder, and Gush to dig into extra lands. My threats were fairly cheap. And the metagame, by and large, didn't focus on attacking my manabase.
The Content of Your ColorbaseSo far we've only talked about the size of your manabase. What about access to colors? Fetchlands fundamentally changed this equation back in the days of Onslaught. Before then, ensuring access to all your colors was a precarious balancing act between duals, pain lands, and 5-color lands with drawbacks like City of Brass and Gemstone Mine. Now, you can count your fetchlands as 5-color sources, and that's a huge advantage. Because of that, I usually run more fetchlands than the average deck in the metagame. In the Slaver era, I used 5 where most decks had 4, and in the Gifts era, I was using 6 where my teammates had 5. (Side note: Your fetchlands' value goes up further depending on the number of ways you have to manipulate the top cards of your library. If you have lots of Brainstorms, Scroll Racks, Ponders, Sensei's Tops, etc., you'll want more fetchlands for that reason alone).
I build my color base off my primary colors. Almost all the time, those are 1) blue and 2) black. I imagine most other Vintage players approach things the same way; that's why you see fetchland configurations in Tezzeret that can all get Islands. In some ritual-based combo decks, the color scheme flips around, with black as your primary color and blue being secondary. In those decks, all their fetchlands can find Swamps. So from there, you run usually 3, sometimes 4 dual lands that give you access to your primary colors. Now, between your fetchlands and your duals, you have 8-10 lands that give you access to both of your primary colors. If you add in Lotus and on-color Moxes, you'll have about a 1:6 chance of drawing sources that give you access to either of your primary colors. That's usually enough for me.
From here, I round out the lands with some combination of basics and duals giving me access to splash colors. This varies according to the variables above, that determine the size of my manabase. Most importantly, do I expect a lot of Wastelands? If so, I'm going with at least 3 basics, maybe more. Almost all the time, the basics will be in my heaviest primary color only, so they can drive my engine. Make sure your duals accessing splash colors build off your primary colors, so your fetchlands can find them.
ColorblindnessOff-color Moxes are generally included. The only time they aren't is when the overwhelming majority of the important spells in my deck don't need colorless mana. This is very rare, but examples of decks that don't need off-color Moxes are Doomsday, with many spells that only require black mana, and some varieties of Fish that rely on only-colored mana to play creatures like Qasali Pridemage, True Believer, Meddling Mage, Gaddock Teeg, etc. Decks with Null Rods (I generally don't play these) might want to cut off-color Moxes unless they really need the acceleration. The demand for colorless mana also determines whether other colorless-producing artifacts, like Crypt, Vault, and on occasion, Grim Monolith, get included.
Off-color lands are a bit harder to gauge. I tend to decide whether or not to include them based on the usefulness of their non-mana effect. For example, Library of Alexandria is very good in a heavy-control metagame, and not so good in a combo-heavy metagame. I generally don't include more than 1 or 2 of such colorless lands in my deck if it needs to support double on-color spells early on, like Mana Drain.