Analyzing opening hands.

[Daenyth]

Recently I was doing some goldfishing with TPS, and came across a few hands that I'm curious about. In general I also wonder about the best ways to go about evaluating opening hands, possible lines of play, and whether to mull.

The first one was: Inky, vamp, rit, lotus, swamp (after double mull). Pretty much a lost cause, but I think the line I might take is a hail mary to vamp for bargain, cast it turn 2 off rit and lotus. Most likely lose, but if I can stick it I might be able to put up some struggle. What approaches might you take?

The second, much more interesting one was: Sea, Ponder, Duress, Delta, Demonic, Mystical, Yawg's will. Obviously a keeper. Feels a bit limited on fast mana, but the strong closers make it worthwhile. Duress, and then maybe depending on the draw, myst/ponder into recall? The hand feels way too open ennded to goldfish, but what hypotheticals might make you go one way or another with it?

One last hand: Swamp, duress, cabal rit, yawg's will, recall, brainstorm, FoW. Very tempting, and drawing just one island or a dual means a lot of fun, but if you whiff on mana it's likely to fold. I'm leaning toward a mull here. When would you keep this hand, if ever?

Some of the things I try to look for in hands are: quantity and color of mana (compared to the deck's overall gameplan and the cards in hand), disruption spells, and gas. What other things could I consider?

[Rico Suave]

The first one was: Inky, vamp, rit, lotus, swamp (after double mull). Pretty much a lost cause, but I think the line I might take is a hail mary to vamp for bargain, cast it turn 2 off rit and lotus. Most likely lose, but if I can stick it I might be able to put up some struggle. What approaches might you take?

You're probably not going to do much better with a mull to 4.  Turn 2 Bargain (or Necro if your opponent plays a Sphere, or if they are showing Spell Pierce) is perfectly acceptable.  

The second, much more interesting one was: Sea, Ponder, Duress, Delta, Demonic, Mystical, Yawg's will. Obviously a keeper. Feels a bit limited on fast mana, but the strong closers make it worthwhile. Duress, and then maybe depending on the draw, myst/ponder into recall? The hand feels way too open ennded to goldfish, but what hypotheticals might make you go one way or another with it?

This is a 2nd turn kill.

T1 - Sea, Duress
T2 - upkeep Mystical for Dark Ritual
draw Rit
Delta -> Swamp, Rit, Demonic Tutor for Black Lotus, play Black Lotus, cast Will with B floating, recast Rit, replay Lotus, sac Lotus for UUU, play M.Tutor for Tendrils, Ponder into Tendrils, cast Tendrils for 20 life.

One last hand: Swamp, duress, cabal rit, yawg's will, recall, brainstorm, FoW. Very tempting, and drawing just one island or a dual means a lot of fun, but if you whiff on mana it's likely to fold. I'm leaning toward a mull here. When would you keep this hand, if ever?

In most instances I would mull this.  I would keep this if I knew my opponent's deck was fragile and that Duress/Force would stop them cold (like Belcher) but I would def mull this in any reasonable match.

[zeus-online]

Oh, analyzing opening hands is kinda a hobby for me.

It becomes much more interesting if the deck in question is capable of assuming multiple roles (Like GAT being able to assume just about any role)
It is also quite interesting if the deck has a huge array of early game plays (Like...you know...vintage decks)

First you have to consider what your gameplan will be with your hand, and then see what the your mana is capable of doing. It's also important to note what topdecks will help you execute your plan and which topdecks won't be helpfull at all.

You also have to consider what your opponent is capable of doing and what he is likely to be doing. If your hand dies to a single duress and you're facing a deck with multiple duress effects then being on the draw can be disastrous and your hand really have to shine if he does not have the duress effect.

Sphere's also greatly effect whether you should keep or not. In a way it's like the "duress scenario" above.

Against unknown decks it's much tougher, so i usually look at how my hand effect my decks abilities and then try to maneuver around common plays until you know what to expect (Which you usually should have a clue about as soon as your opponent has played a land)

All in all:
Consider what your plan is going to be and if you have enough resources to execute the plan, if not you need to have a way of gaining access to those resources.
Consider what your opponent could be doing, and what you can do to stop him of trumph him.
Know your role in the match-up. (Are you the aggressor or the control?)
Identify your opponents deck ASAP.

Edit: When considering to mulligan you have to factor in if you can win with your current hand, and if your chances will be better if you choose to mulligan.