Gush and Preordain against Shops

[Eastman]

Focusing on vault/key blue decks...

Strictly against MUD, do you all think Gush or Dark Confidant is better?  It seems like everyone is loading up on Gush these days.  I have too--I went 5-1-1 with a Gush list at the last N.Y.S.E. event and was pretty impressed with how it ran.

But nonetheless, MUD seems to be such a problem for Blue these days.  The blue decks that beat shops load up on anti-MUD cards in the main and board to an extreme.  Are we compensating for mistakes we are making elsewhere?

I mean, as I recall STAX was basically invented back in 03/04 to answer the Gush-Gro lists of the day.  Nowadays MUD is running 13 (13!) sphere effects.  Loading up on lost-cost/low-reward draw, as the modern lists have with preordain and gush, seems like exactly the wrong move when facing down that number of spheres.   The more low cost filters a deck runs, the more spheres interfere with how it plays.

Is it that the overall strength of Gush overcomes the drawback of letting spheres disrupt your deck's engine?  Is preordain so good at finding early land drops that the same problem is acceptable?  Or are we clinging to Gush when we shouldn't be?  

[Stormanimagus]

Focusing on vault/key blue decks...

Strictly against MUD, do you all think Gush or Dark Confidant is better?  It seems like everyone is loading up on Gush these days.  I have too--I went 5-1-1 with a Gush list at the last N.Y.S.E. event and was pretty impressed with how it ran.

But nonetheless, MUD seems to be such a problem for Blue these days.  The blue decks that beat shops load up on anti-MUD cards in the main and board to an extreme.  Are we compensating for mistakes we are making elsewhere?

I mean, as I recall STAX was basically invented back in 03/04 to answer the Gush-Gro lists of the day.  Nowadays MUD is running 13 (13!) sphere effects.  Loading up on lost-cost/low-reward draw, as the modern lists have with preordain and gush, seems like exactly the wrong move when facing down that number of spheres.   The more low cost filters a deck runs, the more spheres interfere with how it plays.

Is it that the overall strength of Gush overcomes the drawback of letting spheres disrupt your deck's engine?  Is preordain so good at finding early land drops that the same problem is acceptable?  Or are we clinging to Gush when we shouldn't be?  

I think the bolded part is correct. Blue mages are so attached to the idea of "King Blue" that they believe unequivocally that Blue.dec is the heart and soul of Vintage. It is hard to argue with them most of the time. Usually Tinker-->Bot, Spells + Tendrils or Vault/Key is about as brutally efficient as you can get in Vintage. Problem is that the Kryptonite for such a deck is mana denial Strategy that gives you few turns to respond while slowing your permanent development of board state at every turn. I think the way to go right now to fight the top tier strategies in Vintage is:

1. Innovative NEW lists (Reanimator was a great progression in the right direction. Good Job Matt!). It is important to note the "new" part of this one. Simply making a blue shell deck that runs 4x Preordain and some shop hate is not usually going to cut it because your deck still relies on multiple tutors (Vault/Key), many spells (Tendrils) or board position advantage (Tinker--> Bot that doesn't get Smoked or Tangled).

Shops have effective foils for all that fit nicely into their strategy already:

1. Storm = Spheres
2. Vault/Key = Null Rod, Spheres (to slow the tutors), fast clock to stop you before you get the combo. Smokestack @1.
3. Tinker-->Bot = Smokestack, Tanglewire, Duplicant, Sculpting Steel, Maze Of Ith.

2. Playing a Shop deck designed to beat other Shops decks without tanking to the rest of the field. This is the preferred route right now, and I can't begrudge anyone for doing it. This is the mentality that explains the resurgence of Metalworker.

3. Play a deck that preys on shops or can be tailored to beat shops, but attacks the rest of the field as well. Something like 2-Card Monte might fit the bill here, but I'd like to see more players try Vial G/W or WW decks along with Null Rod versions of Noble Fish. Green Sun's Zenith gives Noble Fish another great turn 1 play on the play. Zenith --> Dryad Arbor is a great way to accelerate out of danger vs. Shops. Zenith also allows for a 1-of Selkie that allows Noble Fish to retain decent game vs. Blue decks. I strongly recommend that people give Noble Fish with 4x Rod another try and tailor it to beat Shops more. Metalworker hates Null Rod and that might be a great foil to the beast of Metalworker Shops right now.

Hope some of those thoughts are of use right now.

-Storm

[vassago]

Strictly against MUD, do you all think Gush or Dark Confidant is better?  It seems like everyone is loading up on Gush these days.  I have too--I went 5-1-1 with a Gush list at the last N.Y.S.E. event and was pretty impressed with how it ran.

If we are talking about just versus MUD, I would think Dark Confidant would be better.  I mean the obvious reasons would be the chance of building up a mana base by the extra cards netted should make it worth the cut, right?  I would think the ideal opening, regardless of who goes first, would be turn 1 or 2 Dark Confidant with some kind of counter spell.

But nonetheless, MUD seems to be such a problem for Blue these days.  The blue decks that beat shops load up on anti-MUD cards in the main and board to an extreme.  Are we compensating for mistakes we are making elsewhere?

I don’t necessarily believe this is the case.  When there is a widely popular metagame predator, it’s only natural that a shift in deck building points towards dealing with that. A classic example is why most decks have 6ish cards for dredge in their sideboard. The thing with gush decks, is that their hate for shops is two sided, as most play with Tendrils of Agony and one bounce spell one game turns into the kill spell another, or the spell that leads into the kill that is.

Is it that the overall strength of Gush overcomes the drawback of letting spheres disrupt your deck's engine?  Is preordain so good at finding early land drops that the same problem is acceptable?  Or are we clinging to Gush when we shouldn't be? 

Preordain is really that good. I would think, that when you cast it in the shop matchup, you’re solidifying your next land/mana drops or business cards. Not to mention Top with this, means you can adopt the general idea of playing against workshops, “Ignore spheres, for the most part, play mana, counter actual threats and kill them eventually.” Of course, things are apt to change in the given game, but when you can cheaply, effectively and reliably see to it that you will continue to be able to have mana, then that the draw backs of their remedial threats seem “meh” at best. I could be wrong, but Preordain is a sick set up spell either way.

[TheBrassMan]

Lets be honest - neither of them are very good.  Trading mana or land drops for extra cards just isn't a very good strategy against mana denial.  Bob was better back when attacking with him was remotely reasonable, but these days he's far more likely to kill you than your opponent.  The other cards in your deck are so much more important to the matchup.  

apolgize for the cross-post, but I mentioned this in another thread, which is very relevant here:

If Gush has any inherent advantage, it's raw power.  This does three things for you:

1. Because Gush has more frequent blowout wins, you have a better chance of just getting a random early kill before the workshop deck can stop you (i.e Turn one)

2. Because Gush has a bit more "win from nowhere" than traditional blue decks, it makes certain hate cards better.  Hurkyl's Recall is an amazing card that can sometimes backfire if you have no follow-through.  Because Gush is more likely to win during a one-turn window, tempo plays like Hukryls and Ingot Chewer are a little better.

3. Because Gush has an inherently strong core against other decks, you can run more dedicated cards without sacrificing other matchups (i.e. you don't have to run more hate, you get to run more hate)

And I think all of that's true talking Gush v. Bob - but obviously turn one land-mox Bob is better than turn one land-mox look at a Gush, and further still, the Non-Gush, Non-Bob cards (particularly lands and CMC's) are far more important

[Eastman]

Mmm Brassman you make a number of good points.  Losing the ability to attack with bob is really important. It used to be (against stax) that if you got a bob down, you could just force the smokestacks and be pretty likely to beat them to death. Now with the more aggro lists and golem, bob loses that advantage and gains a disadvantage in that the life loss becomes relevant. That is big. I am also in agreement with the cross-posted points about Gush as being both tight and explosive.

Storm, I think you are right and what the meta needs is for more people to look outside the box. Nonetheless there are those of us who grew up in New England and are honor bound to play blue control, no matter the circumstances .

One aside, but something that has been on my mind that vassago's point about preordain being "that good" made me think of.  Isn't ponder better than a fourth preordain (assuming you only have 4 such slots) in a list running multiple sensei's tops?  With look/ponder/look you see 4 new cards, with look/preordain/look you see but 3.

[vassago]

One aside, but something that has been on my mind that vassago's point about preordain being "that good" made me think of.  Isn't ponder better than a fourth preordain (assuming you only have 4 such slots) in a list running multiple sensei's tops?  With look/ponder/look you see 4 new cards, with look/preordain/look you see but 3.

I like playing all 5, but when I need to make a cut I always go for Ponder. I don't have a good reason for it other than the cards I ship to the bottom with Preordain, I like it if they stay there. I know it's very nonbo-ish with fetches, but that is the only "real" answer I can give you at the moment.

I do agree if you have more than 1 Top, that Ponder should be there.

[Tha Gunslinga]

The reason Gush and Preordain are terrible against MUD is that they don't do anything.  All a blue deck is, typically, is 1-3 good cards, and 57-59 cards that are either mana, defense/stalling, and stuff designed to find the good cards.  The mana is usually fairly iffy against a shop deck, given that you're running almost nothing that taps for more than 1, and all your Moxen will just get shut down by a Chalice.  Fetches are good, but duals are bad.  Then we get to the rest.  Tutors, draw, manipulation, all of that is wonderful in the mirror, or against a Fish deck, but against MUD they suck.  Preordain becomes terrible when it costs 3 or 4 mana.  Gush can be useful in dodging Strips, but unless you have Fastbond, you're just Time Walking yourself much of the time.  All a blue deck is, typically, is a bunch of chaff plus a kill, which is either Tinker, Jace, or a storm card.  Storm is rough vs MUD because unless you can EOT Hurk's or Rebuild, you're probably not going to be able to afford to storm for very much.  Tinker is fine, if you can get an artifact in play and pay enough mana for the Tinker.  Jace can be good, but is usually too much mana and is totally useless vs, say, 2 creatures, or even a Lodestone and a Mishra's Factory.

MUD, on the other hand, is all lock components and guys.  Everything MUD does makes it harder and harder for the blue player to win.  Every card is a permanent, which is pretty awesome when you're trying to win a permanent war, and none of your "symmetrical" effects are.  As a MUD player, I would face blue decks every round if I could.  I have zero sideboard cards for blue decks, because I just don't need them.  I already have 30+ hate cards maindeck.