There is a real difference between Needle and Spellbomb though. If you get Needle, they will be put a dredger in the yard in response to you casting needle, and and then they can dredge on their draw step. Spellbomb nullfies any dredging they do until their next main phase, which is essentially timewalking them, right?
Keeping in mind all options we have (Going for Needle, Going for Spellbomb, Setting up next turn tinker) are all weak to the hate they are sideboarding, here is my thought process:
Needle will get a Bazaar activation in response and most likely a dredger in the yard (at most 3), but the power of needle is it will shut down one of the 3 ways they can get cards in the yard (Bazaar, Dredging, and Cleanup discard). So on their turn you have limited their option to one of two things, drawing off the top looking for a way to remove needle or replacing their now single draw into dredging. If they don't have the hate to remove needle and no option to remove it from the graveyard (unless they side ancient grudge), they will be force to try and top deck the answer to needle. If they force the dredge, they get at most 6 cards in the graveyard, none of which will kill you this turn. This give you the option next turn to upkeep Vamp for Spellbomb and remove the yard eliminating the second of 3 options they have to dump cards in the yard and will be left with clean up discard which by now will be about 2 turns. You will only have to deal with any nacros or bloodghasts they were able to dredge into with those 6 cards.
Now Spellbomb will not nullify dredging, as your opponent can still dredge to try and force you to crack your spellbomb early to make it less effective. They will also keep Bazaar active so they have a way to get dredgers into the yard after you use Spellbomb. Now, I am not a dredge player, but I would suspect if they have a dredger in hand with no hate, they may respond with a Bazaar activation in response to Spellbomb to get a single dredger in the yard. Then on their turn slow dredge on their draw step to try and get you to crack your Spellbomb and hit a Nacro or Ghast ready to drop a land, and leave Bazaar up for after you crack it. If you don’t crack it they will continue to apply pressure draw step dredging with Bazaar up to dig if needed to find the hate which gives them 2 draws extra per turn if needed. They can filter less needed cards with Bazaar they don’t need when Spellbomb is cracked for a turn or two.
Of course with the Spellbomb first, you will probably get Needle with vamp next turn and they crack spellbomb after you land needle to limit the same options as needle first. My thought is that needle first will limit the impact of the extra cards Bazaar will let them see. The big difference I see is Spellbomb can be pressured off the table without hate, where Needle needs hate to be removed pressure from the yard won’t affect it.
Good topic to discuss...maybe I am wrong in my anaylisis who knows, but the process of analyzing it after the fact and thinking about it from the dredge players perspective really helps.
Congrats on the win.
