GenCon Top8 Predictions

[President Skroob]

So. One hit. Very interesting to look at this now, in hindsight.

[Will]

9/53 had a hit? Good job Raf

[President Skroob]

9/53 had a hit? Good job Raf

I was speaking more in terms of "of all of the people on this list that people thought had a reasonable chance of making top eight, thus their presence on this list, only one made it."

It begs a lot of different questions about the playerbase, the format, and the metagama.

[Will]

9/53 had a hit? Good job Raf

I was speaking more in terms of "of all of the people on this list that people thought had a reasonable chance of making top eight, thus their presence on this list, only one made it."

It begs a lot of different questions about the playerbase, the format, and the metagama.

That's what I was implying when I said 9/53 got a hit, Raf Forino was the only person who made Top8 and was in the poll in the OP. 

I agree that it asks a lot more question than it answers to have only 1 person from a list of 28 "ringers" make it.  However, 1/8 and 28/187 are not that far off assuming everyone has an equal chance to win so I guess it makes sense. 

In my opinion the results can be interpreted either as A) a fluke B) The "Best players" weren't playing the "best deck" for the metagame C) Dredge and Workshops are just too good or D) People were not adequately prepared for Dredge and Workshops to be as big as they were, or maybe it was a combination of everything. 

[Kameli0n]

Dear Will,

You also forgot subsection E) Shawn Griffiths did not attend!!

[Pokey]

I didn't prepare for dredge.  That's why I lost.   

[President Skroob]

However, 1/8 and 28/187 are not that far off assuming everyone has an equal chance to win so I guess it makes sense. 

I think the assumption that everyone might have an equal chance to win is the most interesting implication to come out of this.

Is this a fluke, as you say, or has some shift occurred that is removing some of the skill from the equation when we talk about overall tournament success?

Theoretically, if people were not adequately prepared for Dredge and Shoppes, we should probably see some of the notoriously good Dredge and Shoppes players taking advantage of those weaknesses and rising to the top, but we didn't.

[oshkoshhaitsyosh]

It boils down to the power of the deck. Atleast 2 of the top 8 players were not good players. The one didn't know landstill was a deck, and the other didn't know what factory did...just saying...

I lost to shops mid day, and then when I was 5-1 on a win and in match I lost in game 3 after turns was called to dredge. And I had beat it 2 other times on the day.

[Prospero]

Theoretically, if people were not adequately prepared for Dredge and Shoppes, we should probably see some of the notoriously good Dredge and Shoppes players taking advantage of those weaknesses and rising to the top, but we didn't.

We did see some excellent Shop pilots in the top eight.  Raf Forino is one of the minds behind N.Y.S.E 5CStax, Espresso Stax and MUD Marinara.  Martello Shops, which he top 4'd with, is a brew of his own creation that has been exceptionally dominant in the most active Vintage scene in America.  I believe that Forino is the best active Shop theorist in the world, bar none.  I've been called a Shop Master by some and I can tell you that he's a better theorist than I am.  I respect the accomplishments of Fabian Moyschewitz and others, but I'd take Raf, easily, every time.

Also, I was one of the people who voted for Raf to top eight.  I know how good he is, and everyone else should too.  Maybe with a performance like this, on Vintage's biggest stage, we'll put an end to this neglect of Forino as a true Shop Master.

[rpf5029]

Theoretically, if people were not adequately prepared for Dredge and Shoppes, we should probably see some of the notoriously good Dredge and Shoppes players taking advantage of those weaknesses and rising to the top, but we didn't.

We did see some excellent Shop pilots in the top eight.  Raf Forino is one of the minds behind N.Y.S.E 5CStax, Espresso Stax and MUD Marinara.  Martello Shops, which he top 4'd with, is a brew of his own creation that has been exceptionally dominant in the most active Vintage scene in America.  I believe that Forino is the best active Shop theorist in the world, bar none.  I've been called a Shop Master by some and I can tell you that he's a better theorist than I am.  I respect the accomplishments of Fabian Moyschewitz and others, but I'd take Raf, easily, every time.

Also, I was one of the people who voted for Raf to top eight.  I know how good he is, and everyone else should too.  Maybe with a performance like this, on Vintage's biggest stage, we'll put an end to this neglect of Forino as a true Shop Master.

Quoted for truth.  I wanted Raf to win soooooooooooooooooooooooooo bad.   Especially to show the rest of the world how much they should fear Mishra.

Edited for my atrocious spelling.

[BC]

Theoretically, if people were not adequately prepared for Dredge and Shoppes, we should probably see some of the notoriously good Dredge and Shoppes players taking advantage of those weaknesses and rising to the top, but we didn't.

   You know I can hear you, right?

[President Skroob]

Theoretically, if people were not adequately prepared for Dredge and Shoppes, we should probably see some of the notoriously good Dredge and Shoppes players taking advantage of those weaknesses and rising to the top, but we didn't.

We did see some excellent Shop pilots in the top eight.  Raf Forino is one of the minds behind N.Y.S.E 5CStax, Espresso Stax and MUD Marinara.  Martello Shops, which he top 4'd with, is a brew of his own creation that has been exceptionally dominant in the most active Vintage scene in America.  I believe that Forino is the best active Shop theorist in the world, bar none.  I've been called a Shop Master by some and I can tell you that he's a better theorist than I am.  I respect the accomplishments of Fabian Moyschewitz and others, but I'd take Raf, easily, every time.

Also, I was one of the people who voted for Raf to top eight.  I know how good he is, and everyone else should too.  Maybe with a performance like this, on Vintage's biggest stage, we'll put an end to this neglect of Forino as a true Shop Master.

Agreed on Raf being a fine player, as I actually had the courtesy of being his first win in the championship after some very good games. Also happened to be an all-around cool guy, which was awesome as well.

Theoretically, if people were not adequately prepared for Dredge and Shoppes, we should probably see some of the notoriously good Dredge and Shoppes players taking advantage of those weaknesses and rising to the top, but we didn't.

   You know I can hear you, right?

I'm not trying to say anybody is a bad player here, least of all you, Blaine. I made a blanket statement there that, in hindsight, may have been a little excessive. You should probably poke Wmagzoo7, though, to ask him why you weren't on the list. 

The big point I'd rather explore here, and what I think is interesting about this thread, is how what was expected turned into the unexpected, and what that means for Vintage.

[BC]

You should probably poke Wmagzoo7, though, to ask him why you weren't on the list. 

I don't live in New York or Ohio.

[President Skroob]

You should probably poke Wmagzoo7, though, to ask him why you weren't on the list. 

I don't live in New York or Ohio.

Lucky!