Let me begin by apologizing. This is my first time starting a topic. I have been looking a lot at decks recently wondering how blue decks have a chance against shops. I know this is currently being discussed in the restriction 1/28 thread. As I looked through some of the recent top 8 decklists on Morphling I noticed some 5c Keeper style decks, for example seen here
Cano Eptaovino 9/2012 (1st out of 194 players)
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1648&highlight=1#place1and even here
Nebraska (2nd and 4th place out of 25 in 9/2012)
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1676&highlight=Jace,_the_Mind_SculptorThe list I have been testing is below
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Island
1 Tropical Island
1 Volcanic Island
2 Underground Sea
4 City of Brass
1 Scalding Tarn
1 Ancient Grudge
1 Nature's Claim
4 Force of Will
2 Mana Drain
1 Time Walk
1 Ancestral Recall
3 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Brainstorm
1 Misty Rainforest
3 Snapcaster Mage
2 Mental Misstep
1 Lightning Bolt
1 Library of Alexandria
1 Mox Pearl
1 Polluted Delta
1 Flooded Strand
3 Wasteland
1 Strip Mine
4 Dark Confidant
1 Sol Ring
1 Sensei's Divining Top
2 Flusterstorm
1 Swords to Plowshares
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Tundra
1 Spell Pierce
1 Steel Sabotage
1 Trygon Predator
1 Crucible of Worlds
1 Echoing Truth
SB: 1 Swords to Plowshares
SB: 2 Ancient Grudge
SB: 2 Red Elemental Blast
SB: 1 Lightning Bolt
SB: 1 Pyroclasm
SB: 4 Rest in Peace
SB: 2 Nature's Claim
SB: 1 Trygon Predator
SB: 1 Pithing Needle
It is just a few cards different than the lists containing wastelands played in Nebraska.
I want to discuss this deck because I think it has some intriguing characteristics in the current metagame, although let me first make some general comments on the deck.
Firstly, my general thoughts on the deck are that it resembles a big blue deck with some decent anti shop cards main decked such as ancient grudge, nature's claim, steel sabotage, trygon predator, wastelands, lightning bolts, swords, E. truth, etc. This makes it comporable to other big blue decks except for the addition of mana denial lands which function as additional lands (19 vs 16 in most big blue decks) as well as a strategy to create parody when opp. drops sphere effects and a maybe a little more artifact destruction main than most other big blue decks. Also, note that many of the sacred cows are missing, mystical tutor, merchant scroll, tinker, Y. Will, etc. I think others have mentioned that Y. will seems less than stellar in a pure control deck with 3-4 snapcasters that tend to rob the GY of goodies for Y. will. Also, tinker is not what it once was given the amount of anti-creature cards I have seen in many lists.
Some reflections on specific matchups
Workshops
Game 1:
This deck has a surprisingly decent game against Shops game one, particularly the kuldotha lists without MD crucible. The ability to strip lands from shops has some interesting ramifications. It gives more time for dark Confidant to draw into something reasonable, and it lessens the need to focus artifact destruction on sphere effects since the spheres can often prevent the opponent from playing his key spells after you've destroyed a couple of his lands. There is a virtual advantage in the value of artifact removal spells when you can focus them more on key threats than spheres. Also, this list spaces out the CMC of artifact destruction rather well with 0 CMC = FoW
1 CMC = steel sabotage, nature's claim, lightning bolt, swords
2 cmc = E. truth, ancient grudge, mana drain
3 cmc = trygon, crucible
Most games aren't a landslide victory for this deck but really tight play can often reward a victory. There have even been occasional games where this deck can strip lock the opponent (as crucible isn't influenced by lodestone) leading to a blowout where stax cannot play any of its cards.
Post SB:
Post SB this deck gains an additional 6-7 cards that can destroy key artifacts while stax gets little more than some crucible of worlds to replay lands. I won't say that this deck is even post sideboard on the draw but it's not bad, and I haven't seen better.
Overall the deck is probably better against Shops that most big blue decks, which normally requires a huge sacrifice in the mirror (other big blue decks), but that's not the case here.
Big Blue decks:
Game 1 (and general thoughts):
This deck has about as much disruption as most other big blue decks. Spell Pierce and steel sabotage might be duress effects in an opposing blue deck but total number of cards is probably pretty close, and this deck still plays mental misteps and flusterstorm, which are great in the mirror. In this matchup my general concern when testing was will it get blown out by Y. Will, Tinker, and does the artifact destruction cards main prevent it from interacting meaningfully against other control decks. Here again I find the mana denial package allow for some interesting results. Firstly, the land destruction and artifact destruction can severely limit the opponent's mana resources making Y. Will in particular very difficult to abuse in the usual sense. Tinker is somewhat easily answered by all the permission that can target tinker directly as well as steel sabotage, swords, and E. truth for Blightsteel.
Finally, I have noticed the mana denial package, high land count, and artifact destruction, makes it much easier to ensure that you play Jace before your opponent. In the original primer on East Coast wins as well as several tournament reports people keep noting that "he who plays Jace first often wins". It's the reason people advocate 4 Jace and full artifact mana (in addition to benefit of mana against Shops). This deck plays only 3 Jace, but rather than play an extra Jace that will often get stuck in your hand after you've placed one down, it uses the mana denial to prevent your opponent from playing one before you.
I actually feel that this deck has a much better game against classic big blue than I had expected most likely secondary to the low total land count traditionally and the ability to win the Jace race.
Post board, there's not much difference both decks will add REBs.
Dredge:
This deck has much better game 1 against Dredge than typical big blue although still not good. The ability to play RiP in the SB plus wastelands makes it about as good of a post board matchup as your going to get.
5c Tendrils Oath (Menendian.dec):
Not much to say here. The addition of nature's claim and trygon main give it an unexpected advantage as compared to other big blue decks with several more nature's claim and a trygon in the SB against the oath plan (plan B). The mana denial and high level of permission spells can make comboing out more difficult than against other big blue decks.
I haven't tested Landstill before and wonder if people who play it (Potucek or whomever else knows the deck well could comment on there thoughts of the role of land destruction in the current meta or at least in the Landstill shell in the current meta). Finally, I would be interested in anyone and everyone's feedback on the deck (card choices) or analysis. Also, I want to apologize for the formatting. I am typing while my son sleeps in the next room and he is waking any moment, so I am typing fast.
Marc
P.S. - Thanks to everyone for the years of good discussion on this site.