Dakra Mystic

[MaximumCDawg]

I misspoke about the bottom of the library, goes to the yard; and yeah it should be 86%.  But that doesn't change the idea here.  Given a certain number of cards you cannot let them have (including regrowth effects) and a certain number of cards in the library, we should be able to calculate whether Mystic is worth using or not.  That's what I'm wondering about.

I strongly suspect that using Mystic to deny them a very narrow subset of their library is counterproductive because you're so much more likely to dig them closer to it.  On the other hand, using it to subtly decrease the value of their draws relative to yours by targeting a bigger percentage of their cards probably is worth it.

[fsecco]

I think it's hard to analyse this card via pure math. You're not manipulating only your opponents top, but yours too. So alongside him getting closer to cards you wouldn't want him to draw, you're also getting closer to your answers, or cards he wouldn't want you to draw. It's all relative and more complex than this.

If you try and compare this to only to fateseal, it's obviously not better. But this is NOT fateseal, it's a whole other monster.

[diopter]

Why don't we just two-fist stock Grixis vs. Stock Grixis and seed one opening hand with a Mystic and see how it goes?

If I have time I'll do it.

[brianpk80]

It's also possible to think of this as a Mikokoro that reads, "however, if what you're giving your opponent right now is something they should not have, instead you may both cards in the bin."  The fact that you get to choose after having that knowledge is surprising to see on a Theros block card. 

[diopter]

So, in the absence of testing, I ran some simulations. I assumed a mirror, 50 cards left, and assigned power "values" to each card from 0 to 100, 0 being "utterly dead" and 100 being "bomb diggity".

Yes, yes, power requires context, this isn't totally realistic, deal with it.

---

Uniform power distribution: 2 to 100 in increments of 2

Average drawn card power for the Mystic controller: 56.6
Average drawn card power for the Mystic opponent: 45.4
Average power without Mystic: 51

---

Power distribution as follows (totally made this up):
0 x 5 (dead draws)
25 x 13 (lands)
35 x 7 (non-Lotus artifacts)
50 x 15 (counters, non-restricted draw etc.)
80 x 5 (lesser tier bombs like Mystical Tutor, "average" value of topdecked YawgWill, etc.)
100 x 5 (Lotus, Tinker, Ancestral etc.)

Mystic controller: 50.0
Mystic opponent: 39.3
Average power w/o Mystic: 44.7

---

You'll note in both cases that the average Mystic controller draw is about 110% of the average draw without Mystic, based on the fudged power distributions I put up there.

Make of that what you will ... My thoughts are starting to crystallize now based on this simulation.

[ben_berry]

I wouldn't play him in a merfolk deck. I could see him fitting into a deck with Notion Thief

[RecklessEmbermage]

Is a counterbalance control deck that doesn´t want to wrath the board every few turns conceivable? I´d love to see this in action with countertop, meddling mage and vendilion clique.

[serracollector]

I like his synergy with so many other wizards and spells. Like a list starting with 4 dark confidant 4 meddling mage 4 mystic 4 snapcaster surgical extraction or extirpate counters duress seize wasteland etc could easily lead you with a surmountanable amount of both card advantage and knowledge of the opponents deck.

[AmbivalentDuck]

Make of that what you will ... My thoughts are starting to crystallize now based on this simulation.

The sim barely matters. If the distribution is uniform, this card is useless. If it's a Dirac delta, it doubles the expected value of a normal draw. The problem is that in Vintage, the distribution is actually closer to a unit step. Ie. Do I have enough lands? Yes: I don't need any more and drawing one verges on worthless.

So let's presume a 20:40 split on turn 3. 40 cards matter, 20 don't.

4 possibilities:
We both see junk (1 in 9)
We both see something we want (4 in 9)
I see something I want (2 in 9)
You see something you want (2 in 9).

So 44% of the time I activate this, I'll be happy I did. By contrast, I'm happy 100% of the time I activate Deathrite Shaman.