Vintage Champs Predictions

[Prospero]

We're just a few days away from Vintage Champs, and I know that I'm excited.  I figured it'd be fun to try and predict some things about Sunday's event.

1.  Player Count - Over/Under:

200

250

300

350

2.  How many non-North Americans will there be in the top eight?  

3.  Will there be any Europeans in the top eight?

4.  How many Pro-Tour players will there be in attendance?

5.  Will a Pro Tour player make top eight this year?

6.  The pillars are:

Mana Drain

Mishra's Workshop

Bazaar of Baghdad

Null Rod

Dark Ritual

How many of the pillars will be represented in the top eight?  

7.  How many decks from each pillar will be in top eight?

8.  What is the surprise deck of the tournament?

9.  Do the Vintage teams break out a monster at Vintage Champs?

10.  How many Love Boat/Dig through Time decks will there be in the top eight?

11.  If I couldn't win the tournament, I'd want to see _____ win because ______.

12.  Will there be any former champs in top eight?

13.  Some (or all) of the guys in the top eight will be:

Nick Coss and company put on a tremendous show.  This is the ultimate Vintage event in the U.S.  Given how tremendous last year's event was, I can't wait.  I don't get excited before events anymore really, but I am excited for this.  

I am rooting for a lot of guys, but I would love to see Raffaele Forino, or Rich Shay win.  Really, I want to see a tried and true member of the old guard win, but there are many members of the new guard whom I'd be happy to see victorious!  Given the number of new players that we've had in the last year, I'd love to see a top eight that is a mix between the old and the new.

See you all in Philly!

[Will]

We're just a few days away from Vintage Champs, and I know that I'm excited.  I figured it'd be fun to try and predict some things about Sunday's event.

1.  Player Count - Over/Under:

200: Over

250: Over

300: Just under

350: Under

2.  How many non-North Americans will there be in the top eight?  1

3.  Will there be any Europeans in the top eight? Yes, 1

4.  How many Pro-Tour players will there be in attendance? I assume you mean Pros and not anyone who played in a PT, in which case, 5.

5.  Will a Pro Tour player make top eight this year? No

6.  The pillars are:

Mana Drain

Mishra's Workshop

Bazaar of Baghdad

Null Rod

Dark Ritual

How many of the pillars will be represented in the top eight?  4, I don't see Dark Ritual making it and I'm assuming that Delver is a "Null Rod deck".

7.  How many decks from each pillar will be in top eight? 2 Mana Drain 3 Workshop 1 Bazaar 2 Null Rod

8.  What is the surprise deck of the tournament? If UR Delver with Cruise counts then that is it, if not, a Dig Through Time Turbo Tezz deck could definitely do well if built correctly.

9.  Do the Vintage teams break out a monster at Vintage Champs? I think Meandeck plays a Dig/Vault Key deck.

10.  How many Love Boat/Dig through Time decks will there be in the top eight? 4

11.  If I couldn't win the tournament, I'd want to see _Nick Detwiler_ win because _there's too many reasons to name_.

12.  Will there be any former champs in top eight? 1

13.  Some (or all) of the guys in the top eight will be:
I'll guess 5/8:
Raf Forino, Nick Detwiler, Rich Shay, Greg Fenton, Brian Durkin.

[KrauserKrauser]

1.  Player Count - Over/Under:

200 - Over

250 - Over

300 - Over

350 - Under

(Justification - Last year's Vintage Champs was 270+ people IIRC)

2.  How many non-North Americans will there be in the top eight?  2

3.  Will there be any Europeans in the top eight? Yes, 2

4.  How many Pro-Tour players will there be in attendance? 6

5.  Will a Pro Tour player make top eight this year? Yes

6.  The pillars are:

Mana Drain

Mishra's Workshop

Bazaar of Baghdad

Null Rod

Dark Ritual

How many of the pillars will be represented in the top eight?  (Where does Delver fall in here?)  Either way I will say 4 assuming BUG and RUG Delver are considered Null Rod decks

7.  How many decks from each pillar will be in top eight? 2 Workshop, 1 Dredge, 2 Drain(1 3c/4c Control, 1 Oath), 3 Null Rod(2 Delver, 1 BUG)

8.  What is the surprise deck of the tournament? Something that really abuses the new Delve cards.

9.  Do the Vintage teams break out a monster at Vintage Champs? Sure, why not.

10.  How many Love Boat/Dig through Time decks will there be in the top eight? 3

11.  If I couldn't win the tournament, I'd want to see Prospero win because in a roundabout way he got me back into collecting Magic art.

12.  Will there be any former champs in top eight? Yes

13.  Some (or all) of the guys in the top eight will be: 1+ Forino's, Rich Shay

[Methuselahn]

1. 224 people exactly
2. 0
3. no
4.  3 pro tour players will play.  3 more in attendance just watching/not playing.
5. no
6. 3 pillars
7. 2 at most
8. no surprise decks in the top 20.
9. no team 'monster' deck ('monster', imo, assumes they make top 16)
10. 4
11. If I couldn't win the tournament, I'd want to see DREDGE win because IT KEEPS SIDEBOARDS HONEST. (not really a prediction type of question)
12. Yes
13. Some (or all) of the guys in the top eight will be: huge magic nerds.

[JarofFortune]

1.  Player Count - Over/Under:

200 - Over

250 - Over

300 - Over

350 - under

2.  How many non-North Americans will there be in the top eight?  0

3.  Will there be any Europeans in the top eight? No.

4.  How many Pro-Tour players will there be in attendance? 4-5

5.  Will a Pro Tour player make top eight this year? No.

6.  The pillars are:

Mana Drain

Mishra's Workshop

Bazaar of Baghdad

Null Rod

Dark Ritual

How many of the pillars will be represented in the top eight?  
3. 4 if a dredge player makes it.

7.  How many decks from each pillar will be in top eight? Probably just one drain deck, 2 at most. 2-4 delver. 3 workshop, maybe a rogue deck.

8.  What is the surprise deck of the tournament? Something built to beat both delver and shops. Perhaps it will involve a certain tinker bot that delver literally can't beat, especially off cavern.


9.  Do the Vintage teams break out a monster at Vintage Champs? I doubt it, but maybe one or two individual players or smaller testing groups  will.

10.  How many Love Boat/Dig through Time decks will there be in the top eight? 4-7 You'd have to be crazy to run blue but not some amount of those cards.
11.  If I couldn't win the tournament, I'd want to see anyone i know personally to win.

12.  Will there be any former champs in top eight? Yes.

13.  Some (or all) of the guys in the top eight will be: awesome guys who love the format.

As a side note, there will be no bug fish in the top 8 if the deck can't adapt. I've never seen a meta where the deck is worse positioned than this one.

[Prospero]

1.  Player Count - Over/Under:

200 - Over.

250 - Over.

300 - Over.

350 - Under.

2.  How many non-North Americans will there be in the top eight? 0.

3.  Will there be any Europeans in the top eight? No.

4.  How many Pro-Tour players will there be in attendance? Five.

5.  Will a Pro Tour player make top eight this year? No.

6.  The pillars are:

Mana Drain

Mishra's Workshop

Bazaar of Baghdad

Null Rod

Dark Ritual

How many of the pillars will be represented in the top eight? Four.

7.  How many decks from each pillar will be in top eight? 3 Null Rod, 2 Workshop, 1 Dredge, 2 Mana Drain.

8.  What is the surprise deck of the tournament?  Some Dig Through Time/Love Boat deck. 

9.  Do the Vintage teams break out a monster at Vintage Champs?  Yes!

10.  How many Love Boat/Dig through Time decks will there be in the top eight?  4.

11.  If I couldn't win the tournament, I'd want to see Raffaele Forino win because of the tremendous amount of work he has done within the Shop pillar, but more because he's a better man than he is Shop pilot.

12.  Will there be any former champs in top eight?  Yes.

13.  Some (or all) of the guys in the top eight will be:  Raffaele Forino, Rich Shay, Mark Hornung.

[Varal]

Wow, that's a lot of choices to make.

1.  Player Count - Over/Under:

200 - Over.

250 - Over. We'll beat last year record.

300 - Under.

350 - Under.

2.  How many non-North Americans will there be in the top eight? 0.

3.  Will there be any Europeans in the top eight? No, but it would be really cool if there was any.

4.  How many Pro-Tour players will there be in attendance? Thirty, assuming that someone with a Pro Point is a Pro Player.

5.  Will a Pro Tour player make top eight this year? Yes.

6.  The pillars are:

Mana Drain

Mishra's Workshop

Bazaar of Baghdad

Null Rod

Dark Ritual

How many of the pillars will be represented in the top eight? Three.

7.  How many decks from each pillar will be in top eight? 3 Null Rod, 3 Workshop, 2 Mana Drain.

8.  What is the surprise deck of the tournament?  Non blue hate bears. 

9.  Do the Vintage teams break out a monster at Vintage Champs?  No, never heard about Vintage teams.

10.  How many Love Boat/Dig through Time decks will there be in the top eight?  5.

11.  If I couldn't win the tournament, I'd want to see Joel Lim win because it would be awesome to have a back to back winner.

12.  Will there be any former champs in top eight?  No.

13.  Some (or all) of the guys in the top eight will be:  Kevin Cron, Raffaele Forino.

[Samoht]

1.  Player Count - Over/Under:

200 - Over

250 - Over

300 - Under

350 - Under

2.  How many non-North Americans will there be in the top eight?  0

3.  Will there be any Europeans in the top eight? No.

4.  How many Pro-Tour players will there be in attendance? 5-10 if you mean actives

5.  Will a Pro Tour player make top eight this year? No.

6.  The pillars are:

Mana Drain

Mishra's Workshop

Bazaar of Baghdad

Null Rod

Dark Ritual

How many of the pillars will be represented in the top eight?  My gut says 3 but will say 4.

7.  How many decks from each pillar will be in top eight? Assuming we count Delver as Rod, 2, 2, 1, 3

8.  What is the surprise deck of the tournament? If Treasure Cruise Delver counts it. Otherwise, the deck someone brews to beat it.

9.  Do the Vintage teams break out a monster at Vintage Champs? Unequivocally yes.

10.  How many Love Boat/Dig through Time decks will there be in the top eight? 3

11.  If I couldn't win the tournament, I'd want to see any NE player win because we play the best/most Vintage in the world, week in and week out. Plus that means there's a 90% chance it's a friend of mine.

12.  Will there be any former champs in top eight? No.

13.  Some (or all) of the guys in the top eight will be: Rich Shay, Raf Forino, Tom Dixon, Matt Murray


Little hubristic with the called shot, but that's me sometimes anyway.

[MTGFan]

1.  Player Count - Over/Under:

200 over

250 under

300

350

2.  How many non-North Americans will there be in the top eight?  2

3.  Will there be any Europeans in the top eight? yes

4.  How many Pro-Tour players will there be in attendance? 6+

5.  Will a Pro Tour player make top eight this year? yes

6.  The pillars are:

Mana Drain 3 in top 8

Mishra's Workshop 4 in top 8

Bazaar of Baghdad 0 in top 8

Null Rod 1 in top 8

Dark Ritual 0 in top 8

How many of the pillars will be represented in the top eight?  

7.  How many decks from each pillar will be in top eight?

8.  What is the surprise deck of the tournament? U/W Humans

9.  Do the Vintage teams break out a monster at Vintage Champs? no

10.  How many Love Boat/Dig through Time decks will there be in the top eight? 4+

11.  If I couldn't win the tournament, I'd want to see _____ win because ______. a Mayor Humans deck; Guliftw

12.  Will there be any former champs in top eight? yes

13.  Some (or all) of the guys in the top eight will be: Stephen Menendian, Reid Duke, Ben Kowal

[vaughnbros]

1.  Player Count - Over/Under:

200 - Over.

250 - Over.

300 - Under.

350 - Under.

2.  How many non-North Americans will there be in the top eight? 0.

3.  Will there be any Europeans in the top eight? No.

4.  How many Pro-Tour players will there be in attendance? 8

5.  Will a Pro Tour player make top eight this year? Yes.

6.  The pillars are:

Mana Drain

Mishra's Workshop

Bazaar of Baghdad

Null Rod? Does anyone play this card anymore?

Dark Ritual

How many of the pillars will be represented in the top eight? Three.

7.  How many decks from each pillar will be in top eight? 2 Workshop, 2 Mana Drain, 1 Dredge, 3 Playing none of the pillars.

8.  What is the surprise deck of the tournament?  delver.  

9.  Do the Vintage teams break out a monster at Vintage Champs?  Dont know what this means so no

10.  How many Love Boat/Dig through Time decks will there be in the top eight?  4.

11.  If I couldn't win the tournament, I'd want to see someone I like win because who wants to see someone they don't like win?

12.  Will there be any former champs in top eight?  No.

13.  Some (or all) of the guys in the top eight will be:  LSV+Some number of people from the NE

[Smmenen]

We're just a few days away from Vintage Champs, and I know that I'm excited.  I figured it'd be fun to try and predict some things about Sunday's event.

1.  Player Count

Between 250-310 players.

6.  The pillars are:

Mana Drain

Mishra's Workshop

Bazaar of Baghdad

Null Rod

Dark Ritual

How many of the pillars will be represented in the top eight?  

I don't really agree that those are the pillars of the format, as Mana Drain doesn't really structurally support many decks these days (Landstill, etc being an exception).

That said, this year Workshops is going to do very well, unlike last year, where they were shut out.  

Workshops won the NYSE 2 and the Waterbury, and I think they will put up the best showing and have the most top 8 appearances, with 3.

The decks that make top 8 besides Workshops are going to be the decks that are very well tuned to survive the Workshop matchup.  Which means that Dark Rituals will be shut out.  



11.  If I couldn't win the tournament, I'd want to see Kevin Cron win because that would be awesome

[oshkoshhaitsyosh]

1) Over 300 Under 350
2) 0
3) No
4) Don't care?
5) 0
6) All the pillars except rituals
7) 2 Drains, 3 Shops, 1 Dredge, 2 Rod (if delver is a rod deck)
8) A deck that smashes Delve-centric decks
9) Maybe
10) 4 Cruise/Dig decks (assuming a single copy in a deck qualifies as a cruise/dig deck...)
11) If I don't win I'd like to see Allan Tran or Nick Detwiler win
12) No
13) Josh Potucek, Nick Detwiler, Raf Forino, Allan Tran, 3 more north easters
14) CAN NOT WAIT!!!

[brianpk80]

1.  Player Count - Over/Under:

200 - Over

250 - Over

300 - Under

350 - Under

2.  How many non-North Americans will there be in the top eight?  

0

3.  Will there be any Europeans in the top eight?

No.

4.  How many Pro-Tour players will there be in attendance?

Are these the hotshots from other formats who think Preordain is restricted? 

5.  Will a Pro Tour player make top eight this year?

No.

6.  The pillars are:

How many of the pillars will be represented in the top eight?  

3: Drain, Rod, Workshop

7.  How many decks from each pillar will be in top eight?

3 Drain, 3 Rod, 2 Shop.  Shop players will perform very well but end up cannibalizing each other in mirror matches in the latter Swiss rounds. 

8.  What is the surprise deck of the tournament?

Treasure Cruise Dredge.

9.  Do the Vintage teams break out a monster at Vintage Champs?

No.

10.  How many Love Boat/Dig through Time decks will there be in the top eight?

4

11.  If I couldn't win the tournament, I'd want to see _____ win because ______.

Justin Kohler/Matt Murray/Tom Dixon/Rich Shay because they're excellent players with good sportsmanship.   

12.  Will there be any former champs in top eight?

No.

13.  Some (or all) of the guys in the top eight will be:

Shawn Griffiths and a lot of people no one has ever heard of before, possibly even a woman.  The event will be won by a Drain deck. 

[GrandpaBelcher]

1.  Player Count - Over/Under:

200 - Over

250 - Over

300 - ... Over

350 - Under

2.  How many non-North Americans will there be in the top eight? Two.

3.  Will there be any Europeans in the top eight? Yes.

4.  How many Pro-Tour players will there be in attendance? Plenty.

5.  Will a Pro Tour player make top eight this year? Yes.

6.  The pillars are:

Mana Drain

Mishra's Workshop

Bazaar of Baghdad

Null Rod

Dark Ritual

How many of the pillars will be represented in the top eight? All.

7.  How many decks from each pillar will be in top eight? 1 Bazaar, 1 Workshop, 1 Ritual, 2 Drain, 3 Null Rod.

8.  What is the surprise deck of the tournament? UBW Helmline

9.  Do the Vintage teams break out a monster at Vintage Champs? Yes.

10.  How many Love Boat/Dig through Time decks will there be in the top eight? 3

11.  If I couldn't win the tournament, I'd want to see Mike Solymossy win because we would never hear the end of it. (Seriously, I'd like to see Jerry O'Yang win.)

12.  Will there be any former champs in top eight? Of course.

13.  Some (or all) of the guys in the top eight will be: missing a delicious dinner with their Team Serious teammates.

[thecrav]

1.  Player Count - Over/Under:

Over 300 under 350

2.  How many non-North Americans will there be in the top eight?  

2

3.  Will there be any Europeans in the top eight?

Yes. 2.

4.  How many Pro-Tour players will there be in attendance?

I assume you mean big name pros. I'll go 4-8

5.  Will a Pro Tour player make top eight this year?

One of the VSL players will have been secretly sandbagging us and will top 8 with something newish.

6.  The pillars are:
...
How many of the pillars will be represented in the top eight?  

Everything except ritual will be represented. The drain deck will not be especially drain focused and more generic control.

7.  How many decks from each pillar will be in top eight?

Not going this far into it...

8.  What is the surprise deck of the tournament?

Bazaar breaks out when people forget it exists because it's unplayable online

9.  Do the Vintage teams break out a monster at Vintage Champs?

Maybe... I'm not familiar enough with the Vintage scene to answer this

10.  How many Love Boat/Dig through Time decks will there be in the top eight?

Hard to say. With one of those cards as a four of? No more than 3, no less than one.

11.  If I couldn't win the tournament, I'd want to see _____ win because ______.

I won't be there but I'll be cheering for Smenen because I've been a fan since forever and I think he has an excellent grasp of the format

12.  Will there be any former champs in top eight?

You're gonna make me look up who the former champs are?

13.  Some (or all) of the guys in the top eight will be:

Smenenen, One of the VSL guys with something surprising. Someone completely unheard of who got into vintage from MTGO and had to borrow or buy their deck last minute.

[/quote]

[youhavenogame]

1.  Player Count - Over/Under:

200 over

250 over

300 under

350 under

2.  How many non-North Americans will there be in the top eight?  0

3.  Will there be any Europeans in the top eight? 0

4.  How many Pro-Tour players will there be in attendance? 5

5.  Will a Pro Tour player make top eight this year? No

6.  The pillars are:

Mana Drain

Mishra's Workshop

Bazaar of Baghdad

Null Rod

Dark Ritual

How many of the pillars will be represented in the top eight?  all but Dark Ritual (RIP )

7.  How many decks from each pillar will be in top eight? 3 Shops, 1 Drain, 1 Dredge, 1 Null Rod (and 2 Delver)

8.  What is the surprise deck of the tournament? It wouldn't be a surprise if it's predictable, right? I wouldn't be too surprised to see it narrowed down to 4 Shops and 4 Delvers... but I guess my real answer is "none".

9.  Do the Vintage teams break out a monster at Vintage Champs? For sure not, unless you call Delver a monster.

10.  How many Love Boat/Dig through Time decks will there be in the top eight? at least 4

11.  If I couldn't win the tournament, I'd want to see _____ win because ______.  Hm, definitely rooting for Rish Shay here, he seems very sympathic and humble.

12.  Will there be any former champs in top eight? No

13.  Some (or all) of the guys in the top eight will be: People who post in this Forum.

[xouman]

1.  Player Count - Over/Under:

200 Over

250 Over

300 Over

350 Under

I expect new people attracted from online vintage!

2.  How many non-North Americans will there be in the top eight? 

Let's say 2.

3.  Will there be any Europeans in the top eight?

Those 2.c'mon spanish army!

4.  How many Pro-Tour players will there be in attendance?

Ummmm, 10?

5.  Will a Pro Tour player make top eight this year?

No.

6.  The pillars are:

Mana Drain

Mishra's Workshop

Bazaar of Baghdad

Null Rod

Dark Ritual

How many of the pillars will be represented in the top eight? 

Three

7.  How many decks from each pillar will be in top eight?

Two drain decks (at least one with oath), two workshops, and 4 null rodless null rod decks (between delve, BUG and hatebears).

8.  What is the surprise deck of the tournament?

Oath with one of the new star blue cards.

9.  Do the Vintage teams break out a monster at Vintage Champs?

At least 2 surprising decks in the top 16.

10.  How many Love Boat/Dig through Time decks will there be in the top eight?

Four.

11.  If I couldn't win the tournament, I'd want to see a LCV guy win because yes.

12.  Will there be any former champs in top eight?

Yes, one.

13.  Some (or all) of the guys in the top eight will be:

the best 8 classified in the swiss after 9 rounds.

[HipandKneeDoc]

1.  Player Count - Over/Under:

200  Over

250  Over

300  Under

350  Under

2.  How many non-North Americans will there be in the top eight?   0

3.  Will there be any Europeans in the top eight?  0

4.  How many Pro-Tour players will there be in attendance?  7

5.  Will a Pro Tour player make top eight this year?  no

6.  The pillars are:

Mana Drain

Mishra's Workshop

Bazaar of Baghdad

Null Rod

Dark Ritual

How many of the pillars will be represented in the top eight?   4

7.  How many decks from each pillar will be in top eight?

2  Mana Drain

2  Mishra's Workshop

1  Bazaar of Baghdad

3  Null Rod

0  Dark Ritual


8.  What is the surprise deck of the tournament?  BUG fish makes a comeback

9.  Do the Vintage teams break out a monster at Vintage Champs?  no

10.  How many Love Boat/Dig through Time decks will there be in the top eight?  5

11.  If I couldn't win the tournament, I'd want to see Nick Detwiler win because he has always been gracious, especially when we played at vintage champs last year

12.  Will there be any former champs in top eight?   yes

13.  Some (or all) of the guys in the top eight will be:

Nick Detwiler
Steve Menendian
Justin Kohler
Tom Dixon
Greg Fenton
Paul Mastriano
Rafaele Forino
Chris Ferrante