Rise of RandomAggro.dec

[jCoKn]

About 6 months ago, the metagame was littered with Hulk and Dragon. Why were these the top decks? Because they could beat everything else. We look at today's meta and see... very little Hulk and Dragon. Why? Because something new has been found to beat them. It seems as though a cyclical in/out schedule on decks has been placed, where now the top decks are Fish, 4cc.

Yet recently, carefully built yet seemingly random aggro variant builds(aggro/control or aggro/combo) have been seen taking down these titans. Decks like Dryad Hate, TMS (and other workshop aggro) and Crucible abusing aggro creations have all been posting great results. The greatest thing is that all of them create serious problems for Fish/4cc.

I started brainstorming as to why this is, and realized that Fish and 4cc were both made essentially to beat good (read = Tier 1) decks, not hate-packing aggro. Take for example the surprise factor -- the fact that the deck is a mystery will give you a huge advantage... we all know Fish / 4cc decklists by heart don't we...? This surprise factor was what let Gay/r Fish grow so awesome so fast (until SB's hated it out).

Is the cycle changing again? Please, discuss.

jCoKn

[johnstown713]

There are always going to be cycles of decks.  This is aparent from the years of gaming that has already taken place.  If there is a good deck out there then eventually there will be a deck to beat it and that becomes good.  It is a cycle that shows the metagames are evolving and therfore creating a healthy playing environment.  As long as there is a good deck, there will always be another to be it.  Decks rule for some time, then they die down, it is just the nature of the game.

Johnstown713


EDIT:  I do believe the cycle is happening right now.  It happens every day, as long as people are playing the game.

[Zelyon]

Good post.

I agree with you, if someone doesn't find a way to modify fish so that it can reliably beat aggro, the cycle is bound to continue indefinately.

That is precisely why this deck...

http://www.themanadrain.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=18831

a variant of fish that uses dryad to post very solid results against aggro without losing a thing against control (except for allowing for a slightly more disruptable mana base) came into being.

[Methuselahn]

I'll chime in with an example.

Today, Dreamers in Minnesota had it's first 5 proxy tournament.  There was TONS of Dragon and Hulk/GAT.  Yet, almost zero Trinisphere, Crucible, or 'Juggie-Workshop' decks.  There was a fair share of Mirrodin modular/affinity decks, but in comparison to alot of other metagames, there was a real lack of 'big artifact decks.'  IMO, the meta hasn't caught up to present day.  

Is the cycle changing again? Please, discuss.

I think it is inevitable that gay/r and to a lesser extent, 4cc will take a hit with the advent of Crucible.  As long as 'Shop decks can go: turn 1: Mox(for Daze protection), Workshop, Crucible/Trinisphere; fishy decks will be at a disadvantage.

Then again, the general meta is really focused on good artifacts because Mirrodin is the latest block and craze.   When Kamigawa hits, people may set aside some of their artifacts in favor of new tech.

[Purple Hat]

Then again, the general meta is really focused on good artifacts because Mirrodin is the latest block and craze. When Kamigawa hits, people may set aside some of their artifacts in favor of new tech.

I don't see people setting asside their Trinispheres and Crucibles just because theres a new set.  Unless that set contains a good Foil to either of these cards Mox, Workshop, Trinisphere is still going to be a doubble Time Walk for the Workshop player if it resolves and if it's followed by a Crucible, that game is unrecoverable.  Unless they print an effective counter strategy for this I don't see why it would just go away.  

Hale

[Methuselahn]

Then again, the general meta is really focused on good artifacts because Mirrodin is the latest block and craze. When Kamigawa hits, people may set aside some of their artifacts in favor of new tech.

I don't see people setting asside their Trinispheres and Crucibles just because theres a new set.  Unless that set contains a good Foil to either of these cards Mox, Workshop, Trinisphere is still going to be a doubble Time Walk for the Workshop player if it resolves and if it's followed by a Crucible, that game is unrecoverable.  Unless they print an effective counter strategy for this I don't see why it would just go away.  

Hale

That's the thing about predicting the future and such.  It's tough to do and this debate will surely get us no where.  Sure, it may seem improbable that trini and crucible may never go away, but the same can be said about other cards/archetypes in the past.  For the longest time Hulk was considered the strongest deck and forever unbeatable, now it's not king of the mountain anymore.  TNT and Wmud used to be all the hype, once.  Anybody remember Morphling?  The only thing that is certain is that change is inevitable, even if it takes a long time.