Avatar Oath.DEC

[Cavius The Great]

I recently posted a decklist similiar to this one at Brainburst and here I'm listing the most recent version.

The difference between this decklist and the U/G Oath decklist currently in this forum as that this deck wins consistently on the second turn and I don't have to worry about that 1/1 flying Spirit token chump blocking my Cognivore.

The decklist I'm about to post is much better than U/G Oath and has a superior kill condition, Serra Avatar.

The deck works by getting an Oath into play, then next turn Oathing into a Serra Avatar, and with 2 Dragon Fang and 2 Dragon Breath maindecked, there's a 99% chance that the Serra Avatar will come into play a 21/21 Trampling haste or greater.

Here's the most current decklist I've been playtesting on MWS.

Avatar Oath.DEC

Land/Mana:26
5 Moxen
1 Black Lotus
4 Tropical Island
4 Yavimaya Coast
4 Polluted Delta
3 Wasteland
1 Strip Mine
4 Forbidden Orchard

Combo/Kill Cards:9
4 Oath of Druids
1 Serra Avatar
2 Dragon Fang
2 Dragon Breath

Counters:8
4 Force of Will
4 Mana Drain

Draw/Search:15
4 Brainstorm
4 Accumulated Knowledge
2 Intuition
3 Impulse
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Demonic Tutor

Random Brokenness:2
1 Regrowth
1 Time Walk

Sideboard:15
1 Plated Slagwurm
4 BEB
4 Naturalize
3 Krosan Reclamation
3 Misdirection

The deck is pretty much self explanatory. Around 75% of the time I cast a first turn Oath followed by a second turn kill thanks to Dragon Fangs and Dragon Breath.

 I have the Brainstorm in the deck just incase I draw a Serra Avatar or creature enchantment in my opening hand.

The Intuition serves as a duel purpose as searching for AK's or searching for an Oath of Druids or Forbidden Orchard.

The sideboard has a lone Plated Slagwurm just incase I play a deck that has heavy creature control in the form of STP. through playtesting though I feel it's not needed because the 3 Misdirection in the sideboard provide sufficient protection against creature removal.

The Krosan Reclamation are not maindecked because I feel they are not needed. I kill my opponent the very turn I activate the Oath so odds are I won't end up decking myself. The only reason I have 3 in the sideboard is because I lost a game when my opponent casted a Balance and I had no way of getting back my Plated Slagwurm.

Well, there's the decklist. Feel free to post comments and suggestions for they are always welcome. If you have any questions about the deck don't be afraid to ask because 9 times out of 10 I'll give you a logical answer. Peace.

[Rico Suave]

The deck is pretty much self explanatory. Around 75% of the time I cast a first turn Oath followed by a second turn kill thanks to Dragon Fangs and Dragon Breath.

No, you can't.  

And I didn't even read past that.  Plz don't make up numbers.

[GreatCthulhu]

I don't understand how a kill card that takes up 5 slots and is more vulnerable is better than one that takes up 1 or 2 slots and doesn't die to random removal.

[Vegeta2711]

then next turn Oathing into a Serra Avatar, and with 2 Dragon Fang and 2 Dragon Breath maindecked, there's a 99% chance that the Serra Avatar will come into play a 21/21 Trampling haste or greater.

Around 75% of the time I cast a first turn Oath followed by a second turn kill thanks to Dragon Fangs and Dragon Breath.

Making up statistics 4L!

as that this deck wins consistently on the second turn

Um... how? You can't possibly be serious about 'consistently' when you only run 6 mana artifacts and you can only run a maxamium of 4 Forbbiden Orchard. A more realistic expectation would be like 8-10% going first, going second being about 10%  of the time. Hardly consistent.

[Cavius The Great]

The deck is pretty much self explanatory. Around 75% of the time I cast a first turn Oath followed by a second turn kill thanks to Dragon Fangs and Dragon Breath.

No, you can't.  

And I didn't even read past that.  Plz don't make up numbers.

It's just a rough estimate, I assure you I'm using my best judgment when I come up with an estimate like that. I didn't mean to get on anybody's bad side with that simple comment. If you have a problem with me making approximate estimates then get over it.

I don't understand how a kill card that takes up 5 slots and is more vulnerable is better than one that takes up 1 or 2 slots and doesn't die to random removal.

And this deck doesn't die to random removal. Whenever my opponent tried to Swords my Avatar I had a counter in hand to protect it. I've playtested this deck dozens of times against 4cc Control and I've won a majority of the times. And if you don't believe me then I don't care, you don't have to. I've had good results with this build and that's all I can say.

[Cavius The Great]

Um... how? You can't possibly be serious about 'consistently' when you only run 6 mana artifacts and you can only run a maxamium of 4 Forbbiden Orchard. A more realistic expectation would be like 8-10% going first, going second being about 10% of the time. Hardly consistent.

Now you're making up numbers. Have you personally playtested this build? Do you know what kind of percentages it gets? No, you don't. I'VE playtested this build, I'VE goldfished dozens of times and let me tell you this, It's alot more than 10% of the time.

[Elric]

Actually, by simple intuition, the chance your Serra Avatar will come into play with one of the creature enchantments on it cannot be higher than 80%.  Consider: the deck has the cards Serra Avatar, (4x creature enchantments) in it in some order.  Any given order is equally likely, so if Avatar=1 and the enchantments=2,3,4,5, then the arrangements with the Avatar at the first spot occur w/ equal probability to the second spot and so on.  So there is a 20% chance the avatar is the first card.

If the Serra Avatar is the first of these cards, it will come into play with no enchantments on it.  Given that all 5 are left in the deck when you activate Oath, it has an 80% chance to have at least one of the enchantments come up before it.  You can’t activate the Oath without the avatar in the deck, but you could easily have one of more of the enchantments in your hand.  So the actual figure will be slightly lower.

[Moxlotus]

I don't want to pull a Pheldigriff and pretend I'm a moderator but... you really do need to read the rules.  Making up statistics, saying "play the deck and you will see", refusing to make changes, and blatant ignorance are all against the rules.

So now you also have either FoW or MD+mana to cast it when you're winning on turn 1 and 2 so much?

Making up statistics is not something people just blow off here.  There are many math and science majors as well as people in law school.  All of us like real fact backed with proof.

[goober]

So the actual figure will be slightly lower.

actually it will be a lot lower, it needs to have 1 of each on it, which is 2 total.  that dramaticly lowers the chance.  it's been too long since ap statistics, but it is nowhere near 99 at any rate.  if you playtested it over 5 times you would see that.  this deck also has a big problem if it gets beat down at all.  because it will most often take more than 2 turns to win, then the opponent playing aggro can get your avatar to lower than 20/20, decreasing your statistics once again.  opponents not playing aggro will have strips, fow, drain, trinisphere, and other cards which will slow you down.

please playtest against people who are good playing real decks instead of goldfishing ot mws trial only.

as for deck suggestions, this just seems inferior to regular oath.  it wastes more slots on a more vulnerable win condition.

[Vegeta2711]

Now you're making up numbers. Have you personally playtested this build? Do you know what kind of percentages it gets? No, you don't. I'VE playtested this build, I'VE goldfished dozens of times and let me tell you this, It's alot more than 10% of the time.

It's called simple statistics. Open up MWS and run some analysis on your hand, you'll see you have 8-10% (assuming for randomness) having those cards in your opening hand.

I'VE playtested this build, I'VE goldfished dozens of times and let me tell you this, It's alot more than 10% of the time.

Basing your percents on 'a few dozen' goldfishes is hardly worth bringing up and it's also besides the point. It just doesn't hold up to a simple stats program.

[Cavius The Great]

please playtest against people who are good playing real decks instead of goldfishing ot mws trial only.

That's a false statemant. I've not only goldfished with the deck I've playtested it with PoliceHQ and did farely well against his 4cc Control build and his Fish build. This deck is not inferior to Cogoath and can kill the very turn my Serra Avatar hits play.

 I feel like I'm under attack. If people can start making constructive suggestions rather than blatant flames that would make me just a tad bit happier.

maybe making these simple changes to my deck would make it more resilient.

-3 Impulse, -1 Regrowth, +4 Misdirection.

Any similiar critiscism to the deck is fully acceptable. I'm not here to argue with people or be shitted on by Harvard graduates. I'm just trying to play good Magic and improve the quality of my deck.

[Elric]

goober- right, I was just talking about the chance to have at least one enchantment on the avatar.  The chance to get both before the avatar is 0 if the avatar is the first or second of the 5 cards.  

It is 33% if the avatar is the 3rd of the 5 cards- here’s how you figure this one out.  Without loss of generality, make the first card dragon fang.  Then, the second card has a 1/3 chance to be the other dragon fang, and a 2/3 chance to be the other enchantment .

This chance is 100% if the avatar is the fourth or fifth card.  So the overall chance is (1 + 1 + 1/3 + 0 +0 )/5= 7/15, or 46.7%.  


Going on to the Oath calculation.  The chance of drawing at least one Oath in your opening hand is 39.95%.  The chance to draw at least one Mox/Lotus in your opening hand is 54.144%.  Now, the chance to draw at least one Mox/Lotus and at least one Oath is less than these probabilities multiplied together, since drawing at least one Oath means that less cards are available to draw the Mox.  

In fact, the chance to draw a mox/lotus given that you have drawn at least one oath is at most the chance to draw a mox/lotus given a 6-card starting hand, or 48.412%.  So, the chance to draw at least one Oath and at least one Mox/Lotus is less than 19.3%.  This assume you are on the play- on the draw the upper bound is a little higher, 24.1%.  

Then you need a source of green mana and two mana total.  You could potentially cast Brainstorm/Ancestral into Lotus/2 moxes, but that seems highly unlikely.  I’m not going to bother with further calculations, but you get the idea.  Your chance to play a first turn oath is going to be less than 21.7%.

edit-grammar

[CaptainPlanet.dec]

If Pentacost.dec got moved to Newbie, this should go into it also. My PowerOath build is superior almost infinitely. It goes off the same turn, more consistantly, has alot of control back up, and doesn't lose to StP.

[Cavius The Great]

If Pentacost.dec got moved to Newbie, this should go into it also. My PowerOath build is superior almost infinitely. It goes off the same turn, more consistantly, has alot of control back up, and doesn't lose to StP.

Whatever dog. my deck has a very low chance of losing to StP due to the fact that my deck packs 4 FOW, 4 Mana Drain and 4 Misdirection. Your deck is a pile compared to mine.

[Eastman]

It's just a rough estimate, I assure you I'm using my best judgment when I come up with an estimate like that. I didn't mean to get on anybody's bad side with that simple comment. If you have a problem with me making approximate estimates then get over it.

You aren't using your best judgment. That is a lie. You want to make the deck sound good so you're using biased judgment.

75% isn't even CLOSE to possible. Please!! Do you think we're stupid? If we all know the chances of having FoW in your opening hand is 40%, why would you claim it's different for any other 4 of? It isn't only a lie, it's a really stupid lie!

[Machinus]

Serra Avatar blows goat ass. You aren't going to be at 20 life, so you are going to have to swing twice. Also SA dies to about 1108571608136 removal spells, while DSC dies to StP, Hurkyl's, Rebuild, Chain of Vapor, and there are more, but you won't see them in a tournament. Why is this even an issue? Congivore is horrible for the exact same reason. DSC says INDESTRUCTIBLE on it, why would you want to play anything else?!? 11 trample points!

[CaptainPlanet.dec]

If Pentacost.dec got moved to Newbie, this should go into it also. My PowerOath build is superior almost infinitely. It goes off the same turn, more consistantly, has alot of control back up, and doesn't lose to StP.

Whatever dog. my deck has a very low chance of losing to StP due to the fact that my deck packs 4 FOW, 4 Mana Drain and 4 Misdirection. Your deck is a pile compared to mine.

So if you can draw Oath, Orchard, a Mox...you're going to have Force of Will and another blue card too? That's 5 EXACT cards you need.  Plus, MD you only have 8 Counters, and a slower draw engine than mine.

When I said the same turn, I meant after an active Oath. The chance that I Oath into a Will, Power Artifact, and Grim Monolith in graveyard or hand is probbably better than you getting a Serra with a Breathe on it because I can have any of the cards in hand...a Witness, Will, Power, or Monolith. You can only afford one Breathe in hand. You can be StPed, Edicted, etc. I can be Drained or Forced. If I'm Forced, I can Reclamation and try again. If you're StPed, you're done. I have many back up plans, in my maindeck and in my sideboard. You have...none?

[Limbo]

You want constructive comments, you get constructive comments :

1: Your mana base.
1a: Why do you play a single demonic tutor but no black source besides mox, orchards and a lotus (which in general would be a waste to sack for B). If you insist on running DT, please add an underground sea or two.
1b: Why do you play 4 strip effects if your win-condition is so superior / fast? In addition, oaths goal is to either win fast with a quick oath, or just keep drawing cards / countering annoying stuff, not wreck a land or 2 with wastes.
1c: Why run yavimaya coast? With 4 orchard, 4 tropicals and fetches to get them and a mox, you got plenty green mana, turn these into basic islands, as blood moon, waste/crucible or B2B will PWN j00.

2: Your win condition.
2a: What gives you the idea that you can consistently wreck the opponent in one massive blow? Yes there will be games where you will have a 21/21 hasted trampling avatar by turn 2, but as you have only a small chance of dropping T1 Orchard / Mox / Oath.
2b: I would like to point out the following cards in your deck which all kill the 1 turn kill idea by themselves: FoW, Fetches, Yavimaya Coast. This is negating any interaction of your opponent, as he/she will probably try to damage you as well.
2c: Now we are back at the 2 attacks again, DSC is looking mighty fine again, as he usually takes 2 turns, and also will take the dragon enchantments from the grave. Using colossus would free up some slots, as you wont need the trample enchantment, only the haste one, if you would want to waste spots on a hasted colossus in the first place.

3: Random deck comments.
3a: You have no removal at all for nasty stuff main deck, and only few options in the SB. Maybe try to find a slot or 2 for engineered explosives / pernicious deed to clear out some stuff that might evade your "impenetrable" force/drain wall?
3b: Provided you switch out the serra avatar for the colossus (don't attack me on this, DSC IS the superior choice if you want to go turbo damage, for reasons stated above), you free up some slots for deep analysis (as you can flashback them safely now), which is tech, especially if you play no blessing to shuffle them back. A few impulses can be cut to make some room.
3c: Try tinkering with your SB some more, maybe try a combination of oxidize / naturalize instead of 4 naturalize. Also, wouldn't morphling be better off then the slagwurm, since he has evasion and stuff?
3d: If you play black, where is your yawgmoth's win?

4: Random attitude comments.
4a: As already mentioned above, posting fake %'s is not appreciated on the boards, and reacting agressively when some people point out those flaws isn't nice either.
4b: Posting %'s usually isn't needed in the first place. People around here seem to have a skill in finding possible weak spots vs certain deck types. With like the gazillion members around here, very few weak spots will be missed.
4c: Instead of starting flame wars when someone points out a weak spot, maybe it would be nice to actually give a logical answer.

Well, there's the decklist. Feel free to post comments and suggestions for they are always welcome. If you have any questions about the deck don't be afraid to ask because 9 times out of 10 I'll give you a logical answer. Peace.

I'd say

Your deck is a pile compared to mine.

hardly qualifies as a logical answer, not to mention that CaptainPlanet's deck looks more promising to me then this one at this current point in time (see how I state this is my opinion, not that it is a fact? And that I don't say your deck can't become good, but looks like it needs a lot of improvement at this point?).

Please try to be reasonable, and everything will turn out well. Peace.

Leon

[Toad]

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