[Article] Forsythe & the B/R

[VGB]

That's so funny considering T2 = Mirrodin Block + Sakura Tribe Elder !
It's quite obvious to me the T2 bans happened because of the terrible sales of Kamigawa Block. Probably more than half of the current T2 decks run 0 Kamigawa block rares !

The glass is half empty/half full.

I'd be inclined to believe that lagging attendance is scarier to WotC than lagging sales of an expansion.

[epeeguy]

That's so funny considering T2 = Mirrodin Block + Sakura Tribe Elder !
It's quite obvious to me the T2 bans happened because of the terrible sales of Kamigawa Block. Probably more than half of the current T2 decks run 0 Kamigawa block rares !

Both Cranial Extraction (the "hot" rare from Champions) and Meloku, the Clouded Mirror are seeing a fair amount of action from what I've seen locally.  Boseiju, who Shelters All is seeing action in Tooth-n-Nail.  Then there's Kiki-Jiki, the Mirror Breaker, Isamaru, Hound of Konda and Kokusho, the Evening Star that are all making appearances in Standard.  Not sure what exactly is great from Betrayers, but I would guess that at least a couple of the Shoals are currently being played, along with Hokori, Dust Drinker, Isao, Enlightened Bushi, Tendo Ice Bridge and Yukora, the Prisoner.

I'm not saying that you're wrong; but I think that you may be letting your emotions and personal prejudice get in the way of reality here.  Because I'm certainly seeing plenty of Kamigawa in Standard at the moment.  At least enough to say that it's not entirely falling on its face and the sales are underperforming.  So, I think it's more than a little unfair and inaccurate to say that the bannings are completely motivated from a sales perspective.  They did say that attendance at FNM was down, as well as overall opinion from players that was out there is negative towards the environment.

So, personally, I see nothing that suggests otherwise.  And certainly the sentiment I've gotten from players is that the environment was not that interesting or "fresh".  But, I guess your local players are far different from mine.

[Triple_S]

One telling sign that the Standard bannings were a very good thing is they got me very interested in playing in Regionals, and I have not played in a Standard tournament since Virginia States of '03.

[Toad]

Both Cranial Extraction (the "hot" rare from Champions) and Meloku, the Clouded Mirror are seeing a fair amount of action from what I've seen locally.  Boseiju, who Shelters All is seeing action in Tooth-n-Nail.  Then there's Kiki-Jiki, the Mirror Breaker, Isamaru, Hound of Konda and Kokusho, the Evening Star that are all making appearances in Standard.  Not sure what exactly is great from Betrayers, but I would guess that at least a couple of the Shoals are currently being played, along with Hokori, Dust Drinker, Isao, Enlightened Bushi, Tendo Ice Bridge and Yukora, the Prisoner.

We had a single Regionals in France so far. Top10 (that is 750 cards) lists 26 rares from CHK block. With 8 Kokushos. That's hardly significant and can't really be considered as a "fair amount of action". Most of the T2 decks are Mirrodin Block decks at the moment (Ravager, Tooth and Nails, Big Red, Death Cloud) with small additions from Kamigawa Block, usually commons and uncommons (Sakura Tribe Elder, Sensei Divining Top, Hearth Kami).

Kamigawa Block sales are *really* low when compared to Mirrodin Block or even Onslaught Block. No Kamigawa Block archetype has emerged.

[epeeguy]

We had a single Regionals in France so far. Top10 (that is 750 cards) lists 26 rares from CHK block. With 8 Kokushos. That's hardly significant and can't really be considered as a "fair amount of action". Most of the T2 decks are Mirrodin Block decks at the moment (Ravager, Tooth and Nails, Big Red, Death Cloud) with small additions from Kamigawa Block, usually commons and uncommons (Sakura Tribe Elder, Sensei Divining Top, Hearth Kami).

Need I point out that this is your local environment, and is not necessarily representative of the overall environment.  So, while this may be the case for you and your players, it is certainly not from what I've seen in the past 3 months in this area.  Nor what I've been seeing from perusing several forums.

While the American States tournaments (similar to your Regionals I would guess) was probably primarily Mirrodin block, this was also attributable to the fact that Champions was released to the public very close to when States tournaments were held.  As a result, the number of cards that were available (as well as time to design, test and tweak) was very low.  From what I overheard, players simply couldn't get many of the decks together.

Since then, one of the dominate local decks has been U/G Control, and uses a number of cards from Kamigawa (Meloku, the Clouded Mirror for one) and has a very good matchup against Affinity and the rest of the field.  Likewise, several other decks run many of the rares I just named.  So, while your local environment may still be Mirrodin-heavy... I do not believe that is representative of the overall environment.

Kamigawa Block sales are *really* low when compared to Mirrodin Block or even Onslaught Block. No Kamigawa Block archetype has emerged.

Where are you getting this information from?  And I'm afraid that I simply don't believe your claim that "No Kamigawa Block archetype has emerged".  While that may be true for your locally, it is not certainly true for this area.

[PizzaMan]

Kamigawa Block sales are *really* low when compared to Mirrodin Block or even Onslaught Block. No Kamigawa Block archetype has emerged.

Hm... usually the block archetypes are born in the Block Pro Tour (I guess this season will be Philadelphya), like Tooth and Nail and Big Red did...

Most people just prefer to netdeck some nice deck and buy it all in singles than to try to build some new and test, test, tune, test more, than try to beat Raffinity :p

You all know that Vintage is the same thing....

[Sarcasmic]

Wait-isn't that exactly what control does?  It lets you sit there and pretend to play, but you really aren't in the game after a turn 2 Drain->card drawer.  From my point of view, everything you said you don't like about trinisphere can be said about Mana Drain too.

I don't think they're the same thing.  With control, you actually get to play cards.  You know, tap mana, take things out of your hand.  And every so often, one of them gets through.  With Trini, you can't even do that.  Do you see the difference?

For all intents and purposes, sure the game is *effectively* over when the control player gets a 3/4 card advantage on turn 2.  But you're still playing from then on.  Not so with Trini.  Once that comes down, you can't do anything.  This is then compounded by Smokestack or Tanglewire or Crucible, which further prevent you from doing anything, and not in the way that control aims to.

[Dr. Sylvan]

@Marton and others who might share this misconception: The DCI's restriction decisions are not just based on sanctioned data. They are obviously---in fact, openly---aware of the nonsanctioned side of Type One. Forsythe played in an SCG P9 tournament. Buehler mentioned them in his interview with JP. Forsythe linked from mtg.com to my monthly report almost an entire year ago (March 2004). They see everything I write for SCG. They see everything the other writers write for SCG. They may even drop by TMD on occasion, though I can't imagine they bother to read everything posted here.

They would be fools to ignore it, and they are not fools. There is no secret difference in results for sanctioned vs. unsanctioned results, though there may be a little variation one way or the other. The restriction of Trinisphere was because they had heard enough negative feedback (just imagine if they dropped in on a Smmenen vs. Canada thread!) that they felt it was a necessary move to keep the format interesting. Just look at the articles on this, which we know to be one of the DCI's major sources of decision-making information:

Kowal backs restricting only Trinisphere
http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/expandnews.php?Article=8501

Zherbus recommends restricting Ritual + some subset of Trinisphere, CoW, and Workshop
http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/expandnews.php?Article=8500

Interviews at SCG P9 V Scracuse have Trinisphere as the most-recommended card for restriction:
http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/expandevent.php?Article=9021

JP presents a nuanced position without giving a recommendation: Ancient Tomb means Workshop by itself might not be enough, Dark Ritual is so good that Cabal Ritual is a threat, Welder and Drain are ambiguously described but sound like targets, and Trinisphere is given the death kiss of "unfun"
http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/expandnews.php?Article=8942

I say "Whatever action is taken, it should be attempting to solve the perception of unfun from such a large audience as much as it should be attempting to form a "fair" unfair format. I'm not sure how the DCI could solve the fun problem without getting rid of the unfun cards, but I'm sure that they're smarter than me, so I'll let them try whatever they want."
http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/expandnews.php?Article=8912

Menendian was actually the only article-writing regular who didn't give the crushing "unfun" label to Trinisphere, but it is well known that he lacks a soul and drinks from the hollowed-out skull of a once-adorable puppy, so I can see how the DCI didn't take his vote as decisive.

[Toad]

s are born in the Block Pro Tour (I guess this season will be Philadelphya), like Tooth and Nail and Big Red did...

By "Kamigawa Block decks" I meant "decks based around Kamigawa cards", not KBC decks

If we have a look at the Standard cardpool and metagame, we see :

Tooth and Nails : MirBC based deck. Sakura Tribe Elder (common) and Sensei Divining Top (uncommon) from CHK block => no sales.

Ravager : MirBC based deck. No relevant card from CHK block => no sales.

BigRed : MirBC based deck. Hearth Kami (common) from CHK block => no sales.

KCI : MirBC based deck. No card from CHK block => no sales.

Freshmaker : MirBC based deck. Hearth Kami (common) from CHK block => no sales.

Pox : MirBC based deck. Kokusho is probably the only relevant card there => low sales.

CHK (BOK even) has not caused serious metagame shifts as the previous blocks did. ODY brought the Mirari's Wake deck. TOR the MBC. ONS brought the Astral Slide deck. SCO made U/W really good (Decree, Shards, Dragon), MIR brought Affinity (the Control build) and Tooth and Nails (+Cloudpost), DRS brought Modular, FDA made green decks far better (Eternal Witness) and allowed some archetypes too (G/W Slide). CHK did nothing. People just threw Sakura Tribe Elders in their decks, and that's all. I actually read the report of some guy who saw his first CHK Block card in round 5. A Sakura...

Where are you getting this information from?

Friend, working in a Magic store. At the same period of the year (beg. March), that is 6 monthes after the standalone releases, they sold 40% less CHK product than MIR product.

[Revvik]

My reply to Toad's concern would probably be to wait and see what emerges during the next Block Constructed.  When forced to play out of that card pool, maybe something strong could be found.  And with Affinity gone (for better or worse), the Block Constructed decks could be adapted to Standard.

I do see your point though.  With the release of every set, something new comes along and warps the environment slightly with another powerful archetype either gaining a ton of strength, or being created entirely from scratch.  Something that isn't being seen with Kamigawa block (based on the block's strength, which is fairly weak at the moment).

Edit:

Menendian was actually the only article-writing regular who didn't give the crushing "unfun" label to Trinisphere, but it is well known that he lacks a soul and drinks from the hollowed-out skull of a once-adorable puppy

You're my new hero.

[epeeguy]

By "Kamigawa Block decks" I meant "decks based around Kamigawa cards", not KBC decks

This is true.  The introduction of Kamigawa has really only introduced the barest of thoughts about running any other types of decks.  Really, those amount to:

1.) Reintroduction of White Weenie (though it uses a number of Mirrodin Block cards)
2.)  Spiritcraft/Arcane (but hasn't been that strong)
3.)  Honden.dec

However, whether or not this means that Bannings were necessary is simply speculation.  In fact, most of the decks you mention had only the barest of beginnings when the first set of the block was released; certainly that was the way Affinity started out (as U/W Control, R/W Slide, Goblins were all pretty big when Mirrodin first came out, and wasn't really the dominate archetype for a while).

CHK did nothing. People just threw Sakura Tribe Elders in their decks, and that's all. I actually read the report of some guy who saw his first CHK Block card in round 5. A Sakura...

As I said, part of the problem was due to the way that States/Regionals fell.  When you only have 3 weeks to get cards together for decks, that doesn't give you enough time.  One of the numerous complaints I heard from players was that there was simply no way to figure out what could or would be good from the set.  Especially as there were no real "set defining" mechanics.  Plus, with Affinity being as strong as it was... well, I don't think I need to say more than that.

Friend, working in a Magic store. At the same period of the year (beg. March), that is 6 monthes after the standalone releases, they sold 40% less CHK product than MIR product.

So, that is local sales data only then?  If so, I think it's pretty hard to really project that to the entire population (1 store out of how many?).  Furthermore, I don't think that is adequate in order to draw a conclusion that the move to ban any cards was purely of financial consideration (or even enough of a financial consideration that it bears mentioning) for WotC.

[smilerz]

We had a single Regionals in France so far. Top10 (that is 750 cards) lists 26 rares from CHK block. With 8 Kokushos. That's hardly significant and can't really be considered as a "fair amount of action". Most of the T2 decks are Mirrodin Block decks at the moment (Ravager, Tooth and Nails, Big Red, Death Cloud) with small additions from Kamigawa Block, usually commons and uncommons (Sakura Tribe Elder, Sensei Divining Top, Hearth Kami).

Kamigawa Block sales are *really* low when compared to Mirrodin Block or even Onslaught Block. No Kamigawa Block archetype has emerged.

That is assuming of course that constructed events drive pack sales.  Though I do not have anything to back up my assertion, I would be willing to bet that contstructed formats don't drive sales at all.  Limited events however are a big driver and in my opinion, and one that I have seen others express as well, CHK draft is a lot more fun than MD5 and OLS ever were.