Deciding between budget Birdshit or U/w Fish

[savekeeper]

If all goes well I while be heading towards Paris this upcoming weekend. While I have been preparing for this tournament for some time (getting a ride etc.) I have yet too decide on which deck I'm going to play. At first, after seeing the Birdshit deck from Syracuse and reading Vegeta's/Josh Silvestri article on the deck, I was fairly certain I was going to play the following deck:

Budget Birdshit:

4 Force of Will         
4 Meddling Mage         
3 Swords to Plowshares      
3 Daze            
3 Null Rod         
3 Stifle         
            
4 Nimble Mongoose      
4 Werebear
3 Ninja of the Deep Hours

4 Brainstorm
3 Mental Note
1 Gush

4 Flooded Strand
2 Polluted Delta
4 Tropical Island
4 Tundra
1 Stripmine
4 Wasteland

The list is based on the one provided in Vegeta's article. Some explanations:

- 6 Fetchland: Figuring that this deck wants too reach threshold ánd really likes it duals, I figured I should replace the Lotus and Sapphire with fetchland instead of basics.

- No LoA: although explained in Vegeta's article, some people at a certain Dutch forum still though of it as a automatic inclusion in the deck, so I'll explain why I don't play it. LoA simply doesn't do anything for this deck. It produces colorless mana, and the only time you might have 7 cards in your hand is in the beginning of the game or after you start drawing a ton of cards with the ninja. In the first situation I don't think you want LoA anyway since you will be casting your cheap spells quick and early, depleting your hand rather quickly. In the second situation you;re already winning so LoA won't matter.

- Ninja of the Deep Hours: again, this is explained in Vegeta's article, but basically, this card gives you a cheap draw engine that will hopefully allow you too keep the pressure going.

I don't have the time too do a ton of playtesting, but I did play a few games against Oath, CS and Fish too get a feel of the deck. The main thing that I really liked about the deck was how it could frustrate your opponent by constantly kicking him while he's down. The manabase however, I hate. Sometimes everything would be fine, but other games you just didn't draw any coloured mana sources, giving my opponent way too much time to get his game plan up and running.

Also, recent results made me re-think my decision of playing Birdshit in Paris. While U/W fish has been posting top 8 results (Waterbury for example), Birdshit hasn't reared it's head since Syracuse (please correct me if I'm wrong). Since I've never played at a real vintage tournament (a.k.a. a tournament where most people do have the power cards), this is where you guys come in. Which deck would you play in a tournament if you had too decide between Fish or Birdshit? If the latter, would you change anything about my decklist given above?

I'm also unsure about my sideboard (if sticking with Birdshit) and Meddling Mage targets, but for now the most important thing for me is too choose a deck and stick with it. Hopefully someone can give me some advice. 

[skumle humle]

Hey!
I played the following birdshit to a first place finish in a 40 people non proxy tourney:
beaters:11
4 meddling mage
4 werebear
3 nimble mongoose
disruption16
3 stifle
3 null rod
4 force of will
3 misdirection
3 daze
draw:11
3 mental note
3 serum visions
4 brainstorm
1 gush
removal:4
4 swords
mana.17
4 fetch
4 tundra
4 tropical
3 waste
1 strip
1 island
sb:
1 null rod
3 root maze
4 energy flux
4 blue elemental blast
3 ancient tomb


My immediate replacements with my build would be to remove the ancient tomb and flux sb plan(and add 4 serenity giving your 3 slots) and off course replaze the BeBs. These were a meta call as there is always 1 or 2 Random sligh decks that makes the t8(which is primarily powered or semi powered).
My own decissions on the deck was that Lam Phan's Manabase seemed incredible weak. i added more blue sources, sacrificing a wasteland and another slot reserved for spells. The serum visions was absolute incredibly and came to mind under deckbuilding while comparing bird shit to a hybrid between Miracle grow and U/w fish. Serum visions dig against land, throw them away lategame and up the cantrips making your threshold beaters better.
Personnally i wouldnt go anywere near using the ninja in a deck as tempo oriented as birdshit. usually i wouldnt drop a critter within the first three turns setting up my lock(null rod) and denial plan( stifle and wastes).
My match record was 7 - 1 -1 take a loss over Tps(best matchup ever, he td'ed a will the turn before i would have killed him) a draw against another Tps player and took wins against WW(round 2 at the o-1 tables), D4rgon,  gift's belcher, Meandeck tendrils, Tps(against the one i drew with for t8), 3cc and finally a intensive final against U/r fish were i topdecked a Beb for the win.
All in all i would agree with you that the mana is the decks biggest weakness(i mulled 1-2 times in most of my matches because of it. I do own a LOA but choose to play without because of the lack of usefullness when it comes to tapping the DARN thing for mana)
important M mage targets: thirst for knowledge(ssb , slaver, and sometimes MUC), Mana drain(obvious), Skeletal scrying(3cc, 4cc) , oath(obvious)..... if your have no idea what to name then let the mage stick a turn or two in your hand because most of the times it resolves naming a relevant target, it could just as well had been : when Meddling Mage comes into play, figure out how to sideboard and take a breather.
Good Luck to you in frenchie land and i hope my comments have helped you
Greetings
Pelle Møller aka Skumle Humle

[savekeeper]

First of, congrats on a great finish! 

Your list looks solid, but I still find it light on the mana. I know you run 3 more cantrips, but playing 17 land scares the shit out of me, and sacrificing a Wasteland, even just 1, seems like a very poor choice IMO. I don't play vintage all that much, but when I did, I always found Wasteland too be ridiculously annoying. Would adding some more land hurt the disruptive nature of the deck? More land would go at the cost of less disruption, but with a more stable mana base, you will at least be sure you can actually cast your disruption.

Quote from skumle humle:

Personally i wouldn't go anywere near using the ninja in a deck as tempo oriented as birdshit. usually i wouldn't drop a critter within the first three turns setting up my lock(null rod) and denial plan( stifle and wastes).

I agree with you on the first part, you definitely want to spent your first few turns on creating a lock or denying your opponent of mana. However, didn't it bother you that you where limited in only 1 card per turn? Serum Visions may get you a card you need, and I surely think it's a good card for this deck, but it does not let you draw into multiple disruption cards or threats. If the card you get with a Visions gets countered, you're left with the topdeck, while a ninja will allow you to draw into counters to protect your disruption/threats or let you draw into new ones. I agree tho, that he is painfully slow, so may be a lesser number (2 I think) is enough?

As for the sideboard, I want to have something against Oath, CS, SSB, combo and something to replace Null Rod with against decks like Fish. For example:

- 3 Ground Seal: mainly against CS, but also usefull against Salvagers, Dragon and perhaps SSB?

- 3 Ray of Revelation: against Oath of course. It could be used against Dragon, but I already have Ground Seal (which is a diffrent kind of thread then StP and Stifle), Stp and Stifle against them which I think are more usefull.

- 3 Energy Flux/ Serenity /Oxidize: the Flux is the strongest, but slow, and might be a little too hard to cast in this deck. Serenity is also really strong, quicker too cast, but I don't know if I can get any in time. Oxidize is the weakest against Workshop decks, but is really cheap and usefull against a more variety of decks.

- 1 Swords to Plowshares: against Welder decks, aggro and Dragon.

- 2 Umezawa's Jitte: this a bit of gamble, since I don't know if it will work, but if it gets active it will wreck Fish/aggro like not other. The risk comes in the mana cost (you ideally want to cast ánd equip it at the same time), and that 4 of my creatures cant use the equipment. Still, I need something against Fish to replace Null Rod, and the Jitte seems like a good choice.

- 3 Orim's Chant: obviously this comes in against storm combo, I just don;t know if it will be good enough. It does mess up with there combo, and can give you time enough to drop a Mage or a Null Rod. I don't run Arcane Laboratory, so maybe I can't take full advantage of a Chant, but if vintage is really as fast as I think it is, a turn might be all I need.

Is that sideboard any good, or am I missing something that should be in there?

[skumle humle]

as a edit i played a Delta as my 18th mana source...
I just cant get the Mana to work with 5 strips, and even with only four i mulliganed ALOT!!!
Some random thoughts on your post:
I dont really think Jitte does anything. It's a nice card indeed  but the true force in birdshit in a aggro Control mirror is the fact that your creatures smack face while fish variants poke you with obstinate fruitcakes.
a thing i dont understand is that you complain about mana problems but want to replace serum visions (the perfect digging cantrip for U cc) with a clumpsy creature that requires you to have either a mage(u dont want to bounce this one early game) or werebear(i usually take these sideways and kill my opponent but trading this one for cards is a okay deal)

Null rod, swords to plowshares and serenity are cards that i would definently play a playset of between maindeck and sideboard(null rod number 4 got boarded in against combo, combo control and would be in against aggro shops)
i wouldnt play chant because the nature of birdshit. The deck uses every last drop of mana the first turns to play draw, mana denial and threats. doing neither while sitting back on a chant is a playstyle i wouldnt use, since this deck still needs to put up a clock for sufficient pressure.
i rarely see Dargon and therefore wouldnt play ground seal, but maybe play some old mans or seasingers instead(if your fear fish, which you really shouldnt)
once again i wish you good luck
Pelle

[Nastaboi]

as a edit i played a Delta as my 18th mana source...
I just cant get the Mana to work with 5 strips, and even with only four i mulliganed ALOT!!!
Some random thoughts on your post:
I dont really think Jitte does anything. It's a nice card indeed  but the true force in birdshit in a aggro Control mirror is the fact that your creatures smack face while fish variants poke you with obstinate fruitcakes.
a thing i dont understand is that you complain about mana problems but want to replace serum visions (the perfect digging cantrip for U cc) with a clumpsy creature that requires you to have either a mage(u dont want to bounce this one early game) or werebear(i usually take these sideways and kill my opponent but trading this one for cards is a okay deal)

Vegeta's list with Ninjas has 19 mana sources, which seems like the right number for me. And aggressive mulliganing is what you should do nevertheless. Jitte is crap, the only aggro matchup you should worry about is FCG and BEB and Chill can handle that. However, if you want a more general answer, Vedalken Shackles is a decent budjet replacement for the Old Man. And as you should know, ninja ability doesn't target so you can use it with Mongoose which is the mots common way of playing Ninjas this deck.