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Author Topic: Proxies: Yet another re-evaluation of a touchy subject  (Read 27908 times)
Evenpence
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« Reply #150 on: January 27, 2006, 08:22:51 pm »

That would change the WHOLE meta...  ya know, lots of super Vintage decks out there really are NOT good at winning any game.  They are good at winning games against other vintage decks.

No deck is good at winning any game.  If there was a deck that had good game against everyone, it would instantly be played over every other deck, even if all the percentages were at 55%.

Moreover, Stax loses to Oath nearly every game, and Slaver nearly every match. 
Stax isn't even a deck that's good at beating other good vintage decks.  (yeah, it is).

If you take the seven big deck archetypes of Vintage [Stax, Gifts, Control Slaver, Oath, Belcher, Storm Variants, and Fish], Stax consistently beats 2 of those variants (Storm Combo/Fish), and loses to 2 of those variants fairly consistently (Oath/Control Slaver), with 2 others going either way (Gifts/Belcher).

Now, there are a good bit of arguments in that last paragraph.  Stax doesn't always beat storm combo outright, and fish that is tuned to beat Stax certainly can.  No one's gonna argue about Oath beating Stax, and CS vs. Stax is more winnable certainly than Oath.  Most people will tell you that Stax has a slight advantage over Gifts, and Ubastax has a good marginal advantage over Gifts, however, it can still go either way depending on the builds, etc.  Belcher depends on the archetype of Stax.  JD will tell you that 5c is a almost a walkover, but Ubastax can be a severe problem (Null Rod).

Based on my analysis which isn't all that far off from the truth, Stax isn't even good at beating the top decks in the format better than the other ones are (save the lower tier ones, like Storm Combo/Belcher/Fish [which, by the way, are the ones that Stax has good game against]).

However, there are peculiarities and oddities.  I went 8-2 the other day against Oath on MWS.  Yeah.  I know.  Crazy.

Now if you take a deck like FCG, FCG will beat Stax very handily.  FCG puts up percentages against Stax probably higher than Oath.  However, FCG loses to:  Gifts, Oath, and any kind of combo whatsoever.

While it might have game against three of the top decks in the format, outright winning against Stax, Slaver, and Fish, FCG outright absolutely loses to Gifts, Oath, Belcher, and Storm Variants.  That's why FCG doesn't top8 often.

I hope this has helped.
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[17:25] Desolutionist: i hope they reprint empty the warrens as a purple card in planar chaos
Lunar
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« Reply #151 on: January 27, 2006, 08:33:48 pm »

It would help if some of your numbers were correct evenpence...

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If there was a deck that had good game against everyone, it would instantly be played over every other deck, even if all the percentages were at 55%.

This would immediatly negate any % it had going for it almost instantly making some other deck a better choice (this is only true if everybody switched like pence states)

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Moreover, Stax loses to Oath nearly every game, and Slaver nearly every match. 
Stax isn't even a deck that's good at beating other good vintage decks.  (yeah, it is).

I really dont know that this is a true statement. Where is your evidence of this, and dont say your testing on MWS.

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If you take the seven big deck archetypes of Vintage [Stax, Gifts, Control Slaver, Oath, Belcher, Storm Variants, and Fish], Stax consistently beats 2 of those variants (Storm Combo/Fish), and loses to 2 of those variants fairly consistently (Oath/Control Slaver), with 2 others going either way (Gifts/Belcher).

I know JDizzle loves hearing belcher get called one of the big archetypes in the format...did you maybe forget about Dragon?

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Based on my analysis which isn't all that far off from the truth, Stax isn't even good at beating the top decks in the format better than the other ones are (save the lower tier ones, like Storm Combo/Belcher/Fish [which, by the way, are the ones that Stax has good game against]).

Im not sure about that first sentance there...

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However, there are peculiarities and oddities.  I went 8-2 the other day against Oath on MWS.  Yeah.  I know.  Crazy.

Not really, most of the players on MWS are terrible...

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Now if you take a deck like FCG, FCG will beat Stax very handily.  FCG puts up percentages against Stax probably higher than Oath.  However, FCG loses to:  Gifts, Oath, and any kind of combo whatsoever.

that one is partly true..ill give you that...however ive seen Stax rip FCG a new one on more than one occasion...

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While it might have game against three of the top decks in the format, outright winning against Stax, Slaver, and Fish, FCG outright absolutely loses to Gifts, Oath, Belcher, and Storm Variants.  That's why FCG doesn't top8 often.

That and the deck just really isnt THAT great...Im really not sure that it outright beats slaver either...in fact id be happy if I was CS in a big tourney getting to see FCG over a number of other options.

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I hope this has helped.

If any of the facts were right on then im sure it might have helped...



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Evenpence
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« Reply #152 on: January 28, 2006, 06:13:58 am »

It would help if some of your numbers were correct evenpence...

This would immediatly negate any % it had going for it almost instantly making some other deck a better choice (this is only true if everybody switched like pence states)

I'm talking about if it had good game against EVERYONE, Lunar, like, even decks designed to beat it, which means that it would stay at a constant 55%.  Let's say someone designed a super amazing Isochron Scepter deck which somehow could not be beaten in any particular way.  A good example of this might be if every card was unrestricted and unbanned in type 1.  Obviously, a Mind's-Desire Storm based combo deck centering around Contract from Below/Tolarian Academy would emerge victorious in every single match.  You'd only have the mirror to worry about [And even you bringing in 15 cards against it couldn't stop it].  Luckily, we have Banned and Restricted lists for a reason.  My only point was that if there WAS a deck that had good game against everything, everyone would play it.  Sorry for the misunderstanding.

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I really dont know that this is a true statement. Where is your evidence of this, and dont say your testing on MWS[Talking about Oath beating Stax].

Out of all of the sentences I posted, I think this one is the most community-agreeable, actually.  I think it's pretty renoun that Oath wins against Stax.  I'm not saying they win every game, Lunar.  Like I said, I went 8-2 against a GOOD Oath player the other day on MWS.  I got Chalice for 2 out constantly, coupled with insane lock pieces.  The two games that he did win, he got 3 forces and 2 mana leaks (with a mana leak removed).  My deck was just insane in those 10 games.

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I know JDizzle loves hearing belcher get called one of the big archetypes in the format...did you maybe forget about Dragon?

I completely forgot about Dragon because I almost never play it, both on MWS and in real life (I actually have yet to play it IRL).  As for Belcher, not only have I played against more Belcher than I have Dragon (alot more on MWS, and tons more IRL), but you can't deny JD this - his win percentage is absurd.

But you're right, Dragon is certainly a huge archetype.

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Not really, most of the players on MWS are terrible...

It's true.  I'm not going to argue that.  Oath, however, should still beat Stax, no matter who's playing it.

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that one is partly true..ill give you that...however ive seen Stax rip FCG a new one on more than one occasion...

Sure.  I play against FCG all the time, and win about 20% of the time (that's probably high, too).  When I get three-ball, crucible-strip lock, it's pretty hard for them to break out of it.  That's about the only time I win though, heh.

Like I said, there are oddities in the numbers that I've provided.

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That and the deck just really isnt THAT great...Im really not sure that it outright beats slaver either...in fact id be happy if I was CS in a big tourney getting to see FCG over a number of other options.

The point of me putting up match analysis for FCG is that to show that the deck isn't THAT great.  Even though it demolishes the best deck in the format (Stax), it doesn't win tournaments because it can't win against everyone.  Combo just destroys it.

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If any of the facts were right on then im sure it might have helped...

I had already said, and I quote:
Now, there are a good bit of arguments in that last paragraph.  Stax doesn't always beat storm combo outright, and fish that is tuned to beat Stax certainly can.  No one's gonna argue about Oath beating Stax, and CS vs. Stax is more winnable certainly than Oath.  Most people will tell you that Stax has a slight advantage over Gifts, and Ubastax has a good marginal advantage over Gifts, however, it can still go either way depending on the builds, etc.  Belcher depends on the archetype of Stax.  JD will tell you that 5c is a almost a walkover, but Ubastax can be a severe problem (Null Rod).

I said that you could pick some arguments in the last paragraph that I had given.  This thread isn't supposed to be for arguments about who beats who.  The whole post was to say that I disagree with the assessment that there are decks out there that are good against "any" deck.  My main point was that Stax loses to Slaver and Oath, which are high contenders in Vintage right now, probably no.2 and 3.  Because Stax loses to those decks, and it is the most dominant deck in the format, surely it has to have something else going for it.

The whole reason for me saying that Stax isn't designed to only beat other good Vintage decks is simply this:  If you were to have a no-proxy tournament, where unpowered players would buy in at $5 each, Stax would still own, because it's not that Stax wins because it's tuned to beat other Vintage decks, but it's designed to beat the Vintage format.

Anyway, thanks for the post.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2006, 06:21:19 am by Evenpence » Logged

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[17:25] Desolutionist: i hope they reprint empty the warrens as a purple card in planar chaos
Lunar
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« Reply #153 on: January 28, 2006, 05:48:00 pm »

The theory you state on a 55% deck is not a feasable situation in any "real" situation..the deck cant be 55% against another identical deck...a PLAYER can though, so if your argument is based on players and individual skill then I agree with you

JD is the only person ive seen do at all well with belcher...at least in recent times in realistic metas...

Oath, while having a definate "good" matchup against stax is nowhere near a 80+% rate against Stax..if you were saying 60% against stax id be more inclined to agree with your argument, there is no real need for this sort of distortion...the statement about it beating stax no matter who is playing it is also pretty bad...random n00b #1 playing oath shouldnt expect to beat Roland Chang or Kevin Cron playing Stax...

If you can only win less than 20% of the time against FCG then you are doing something very poorly...the rate isnt THAT bad...

I realize you state that there are oddities, but using abnormally bad numbers to make a point is a bad way to go about things...

I think (and know) that stax is designed to beat certain decks along with vintage as a whole...you can look at inclusions for example in Kevin Cron's lists like Choke and In the Eye of Chaos which are pretty specifically designed to rip Gifts and Drains in generall a new one...saying that stax doesnt take these things into consideration is silly...YES stax is designed overall to prey on the mana weaknesses inherent in the format and that makes it a very strong choice in general for Vintage, however stax is definatly geared at many (most) times to handle specific matchups it is prepaired to face...

your argument would probably be more valid in a smmenen world of statistically designed vintage decks, using base numbers from winning decks and using only composite lists for a basis of argument.




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Dozer - "TMD is not a place where everyone can just post what was revealed to them in their latest wet dream"

Webster - "most of the deck is pimped, like my insane shirt, which exudes a level of pimpness only to be expressed as sublime."
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