New set coming in Summer 2006

[Matt]

Yes, your thinking IS all muddled. If you know your Magic history, you'll remember that there WAS a great market crash once - with the release of Chronicles. Elder Dragons which had been trading at $30 could now be had for $5. This angered a lot of people and led to the creation of the reserved list.

But what many people ignore is that a market crash can only happen when there's a market bubble. Adam opened a Nicol Bolas and sold it to Beth for $5, who sold it to Carrie for $10, who sold it to Damon for $15...and so on. People were selling each other on the false expectation that these old cards could be pawned off on some unsuspecting sucker, until a reprint proved that false and a lot of people were stuck holding devalued crap.

Every single one of the cards which got hit by the reprint were cards whose in-game strength was wildly disproportionate to its trading value. "Popping the market bubble" is  the market readjusting a card's price to what it should have been all along. You can't seriously devalue a card which has in-game worth - the play value is in sync with the monetary value, so there's no bubble to pop. Which is why reprinting one of the most worthwhile cards ever would not budge its market price a bit.

If you want to control Magic card prices, control their play value. When a set rotates out of Standard, suddenly about half the entire tournament scene has no use for the card, and its price plummets. When Wizards announced the Legacy GPs, suddenly your $6 Reset is worth $25, because there's two huge tournaments where they'll be useful. Changing a card's in-game value has a hugely positive correlation with its market value, much stronger than changing a card's availability.

For example, there just as many Beta Thoughtlaces as Beta Mox Jets. They are both quite rare. But one is worth more than a hundred times as much as the other. There are maybe 50-100 times as amny Jittes as beta Thoughtlaces, and Jitte is worth several times more. Any reasonable analysis of Magic markets must conclude that a card's play value is at least an order of magnitude more influential than its availability.

To sum:
-rare* but useless cards are worth nothing
-rare and strong cards are worth huge money
-common* and useless cards are worth nothing
-common and strong cards are worth serious money

Therefore, card strength >>> card availability when determining card price. Therefore, reprinting Force of Will will not ruin any investments.


*'rare' and 'common' here refer to a card's print run, not the frequency in a booster pack

[Royal Ass.]

Good points matt

Also, If people are concerned about their FOW collections losing value, they shouldn't have started collecting FOWs for monitary value to begin with considering FOW is not on the No-Reprint list.  A wise investor would not collect something for monitary value if it had the chances of being reprinted.  For this reason I cannot feel bad for anyone who bitches about an unprotected card getting reprinted.

Now if they went back and printed a card that was on the No-Reprint list, that would be a problem, and I would understand bitching.

[Lunar]

they shouldn't have started collecting FOWs for monitary value to begin with considering FOW is not on the No-Reprint list.  A wise investor would not collect something for monitary value if it had the chances of being reprinted.  For this reason I cannot feel bad for anyone who bitches about an unprotected card getting reprinted.

the problem though is that when somebody like say a store owner buys up a collection of cards (lets say force of wills here) at say $10 a piece from a player leaving the game that happend to have say 10 of them, the store owner can be reasonably sure that he will be able to sell all of those cards at no problem for $18 or as much as $25 without breaking too much of a sweat. The problem now comes when all the people that are complaining about the MAJOR T1 and LEGACY card costing $20 then wizards reprints them and makes them availible at $11 from a target....People like this arent "collecting for monetary value" or whatever...they are buying cards to make a living, for wizards to risk a part of the profit from the people that sell their products is a big risk...its the whole dont bite the hand that feeds mentality...is wizards getting greedy? maybe....but the possibility of them harming the secondary market cannot be overlooked, even on the level of a card like force of will...

first off people should stop complaining about forces costing $20 in the first place since it is probably one of if not the most commonly played card in the eternal formats, if reset and in the eye of chaos can be selling at higher prices than force of will then force isnt much of a problem and people should shut up about the price being high on it (which in reality it isnt even that expensive of a card...comparitive to other staples)

until a reprint proved that false and a lot of people were stuck holding devalued crap.

the only reason they were holding devalued crap was because wizards MADE it devalued crap...the reserve list was a good idea...Will a new force create THAT big of a drop...probably not, but creating any drop of more than a dollar or two can really hurt some people...especially if it is on a card like force of will that up until it gets reprinted was basically garunteed cash...

"Popping the market bubble" is  the market readjusting a card's price to what it should have been all along

I find this flawed on the aspect that these cards were valued at $30 because that was what the market made the card worth...if somebody wants to buy a stick off you for $20 then that is what the stick is worth...If the guy you got the stick from sold you the stick at $10 then you made it popular, then the guy said now that I made $10 off you Im going to make 100000000 more sticks so everybody can have one, so now your stick is only worth $1 instead since everybody could just go get a stick for .50 off the guy once you made it popular. (weird wording I guess, but it makes sense in my head, heh)

Any reasonable analysis of Magic markets must conclude that a card's play value is at least an order of magnitude more influential than its availability

sure...but you still cannot discount the collectability...especially on the older cards...jitte will instantly become a $5-maybe $10 card as soon as it rotates...maybe even less in the future....everybody knows this and it can be expected to happen....Force of Will is different though...while is isnt on the reserved list the card is out of flavor now for blue and is a signifigant level higher in the power rankings than anything blue is getting right now (and dont you dare deny that) it was a reasonably safe assumption that force would never get re-printed again unless it was in some awful chronicals like set and even then it was in doubt...its just like the moxen...do you actually believe wizards would reprint them again even if they werent on the reserved list? they are far out of proportion with their supposed fix of the power levels of magic...couple that with the fact that wizards would be insane to screw their collectors that much and you have a pseudo reserve list anyways...

rare* but useless cards are worth nothing

thats pretty much 100% BS...sorry man...I cant remember the last time I saw somebody playing with Hurricane yet the very rare blue print of it is worth a small fortune...other stupid rares like fraternal genesis (extreemly rare I know...just trying to make a point here) are exceedingly expensive also, and that one isnt even a legal card...there is a whole list of non-playable cards that cost a grip of cash due to their rarity...to say other wise is ignorant of the fact that tournament players arent the only people who buy magic cards...

@ JP

I'm pretty sure that the price of Mana Drain has gone down over the last six months, too.

While this is true to a certain extent (part of the problem here was supply and demand..once the market got too high on them people stopped buying which forced the prices to go back down accordingly) this is a natural phenomina that has nothing to do with the situation at hand...nobody is talking about re-printing Mana Drain here, and if they re-printed Mana Drain in a pre-con pack there is no way the originals would retain their already inflated price.  Since this is something that can be expected to happen over time (cause card prices will generally fluctuate a little bit) its nothing to panic about.  This is a different situation than wizards all of a sudden re-releasing something that is currently somewhat rare and somewhat valuable.

I think one thing that everybody is missing as well is that arguments about stuff like Jitte not losing any value when it is also in a pre-con is invalidated by the fact that it is legal in every set...force would only be legal if re-printed in legacy and vintage still..if they were going to re-print it and make it standard and extended legal I dont think any of this would be an issue and if anything the value on the card might go up substantially...

Well Ill leave it there for now (sheesh its tough arguing against a whole crowd...heh, but its fun.)

[orgcandman]

the problem though is that when somebody like say a store owner buys up a collection of cards (lets say force of wills here) at say $10 a piece from a player leaving the game that happend to have say 10 of them, the store owner can be reasonably sure that he will be able to sell all of those cards at no problem for $18 or as much as $25 without breaking too much of a sweat. The problem now comes when all the people that are complaining about the MAJOR T1 and LEGACY card costing $20 then wizards reprints them and makes them availible at $11 from a target....People like this arent "collecting for monetary value" or whatever...they are buying cards to make a living, for wizards to risk a part of the profit from the people that sell their products is a big risk...its the whole dont bite the hand that feeds mentality...is wizards getting greedy? maybe....but the possibility of them harming the secondary market cannot be overlooked, even on the level of a card like force of will...

I could now say "What about the people that bought Jitte for $20 each when they could get them for $11 at Target/Wal*Mart/wherever.." Jitte is a PRIME example of this since it's in a precon, AND it's a $20 staple rare. Just because it'll be available at some places at $11 doesn't mean that's what it's value will be.

"Popping the market bubble" is  the market readjusting a card's price to what it should have been all along

I find this flawed on the aspect that these cards were valued at $30 because that was what the market made the card worth...if somebody wants to buy a stick off you for $20 then that is what the stick is worth...If the guy you got the stick from sold you the stick at $10 then you made it popular, then the guy said now that I made $10 off you Im going to make 100000000 more sticks so everybody can have one, so now your stick is only worth $1 instead since everybody could just go get a stick for .50 off the guy once you made it popular.

You're example is flawed though. A (seller) sells B (buyer) some item. B (buyer) replicates said item and attempts to selll it as the same thing. In this case though, A (seller) sells B (buyer) some item. A (seller) also has multiples of this item, and therefore sells it to C, D, and E.

rare* but useless cards are worth nothing

thats pretty much 100% BS...sorry man...I cant remember the last time I saw somebody playing with Hurricane yet the very rare blue print of it is worth a small fortune...other stupid rares like fraternal genesis (extreemly rare I know...just trying to make a point here) are exceedingly expensive also, and that one isnt even a legal card...there is a whole list of non-playable cards that cost a grip of cash due to their rarity...to say other wise is ignorant of the fact that tournament players arent the only people who buy magic cards...

The problem with your examples is that the rarity on those is astronomical. You're not talking some 27,000. You're talking like 27, or 30. The amount of blue hurricanes that exist could probably be counted on one hand. Fraternal Genesis was a special print of a special card given only to special people.
Sure, there are collectors and hobbyists who just want to buy the cards and oogle the art/flavor/whatever. But lets be real, probably 80-90 percent of all card sales are by players. Not even tournament players, but players.

I think your concerns about force being chopped in half in value if it even WERE to be reprinted (WHICH by the way, it's not even confirmed as being reprinted in a precon) are not valid.

[Jacob Orlove]

"Popping the market bubble" is  the market readjusting a card's price to what it should have been all along

I find this flawed on the aspect that these cards were valued at $30 because that was what the market made the card worth.

Do you even know how economics works? Let's look at two situations (both hypothetical, although one of the two should be true):

1. almost all forces are in the hands of players.
In this case, a reprint of Force doesn't really damage anyone, because all the players are keeping theirs to play with. Some of them can now even sell their (slighly less valuable) old forces and buy the (even cheaper) new ones, making a profit and not losing any play value. Collectors presumably aren't hurt by the new cards since they're collecting for nonmonetary reasons anyway (otherwise they'd be dealers). Since dealers aren't holding any forces, they aren't hurt by the influx of new ones. There was no bubble here.

2. A significant chunk of all forces are in the hands of dealers, the rest are held by players/collectors.
If Forces are reprinted, sure, the dealers lose some value. Instead of buying Forces from a dealer, new players and collectors can simply get cheaper reprinted ones. However, Force was only worth that much to begin with because supply was artificially constricted by speculators (the dealers). If they'd sold all the forces they got instead of holding on to huge stacks of them, the price would have dropped anyway, because demand would have fallen. Selling all those Forces they were holding would have meant far fewer players looking for Forces, and thus you'd see lower prices. In other words, there was a bubble!

Bubbles ONLY occur when people purchase something not out of any intrinsic desire to own it, but in an attempt to make some economic profit through investment (holding on to it until it goes up in value) or arbitrage (selling it for a higher price to someone else). If dealers are sitting on Forces in an attempt to earn more from them by either waiting for the price to go up on ebay (investment) or waiting for someone willing to pay $25 to show up to their store (arbitrage), then yes, they will lose money. That is their fault for creating the speculative bubble in the first place. If the dealers had just sold all their forces at whatever price the market would bear, they wouldn't be affected at all by a reprint. Sure, that would mean getting less per Force than they might otherwise, but it's less risky for them. If they want the extra reward from holding on to Forces, they have to face that extra risk.


So basically, if Forces are reprinted and dealers lose money, then at least some of their losses were based on an artificially high price for Forces that those same dealers had created. You won't find any sympathy for them from me.

[Lunar]

I could now say "What about the people that bought Jitte for $20 each when they could get them for $11 at Target/Wal*Mart/wherever.." Jitte is a PRIME example of this since it's in a precon, AND it's a $20 staple rare. Just because it'll be available at some places at $11 doesn't mean that's what it's value will be.

Jitte is in much higher demand though since it is currently being played by at least somebody in every constructed format there is. Precons dont hurt them YET but I am willing to bet that in the long run Jitte will be somewhat less than another such high dollar rare (say pithing needle maybe ((off the top of my head))) due to them being more readily availible due to a somewhat higher print run than other rares of similar status.

The problem with your examples is that the rarity on those is astronomical.

Just an example to show that what the guy was saying was not really true...his arguments were based on the assumption that collecters dont drive the market on some cards which is completely untrue.

But lets be real, probably 80-90 percent of all card sales are by players. Not even tournament players, but players

Id love to actually see the numbers here...while that might be correct for lower end secondary cards and boosters and stuff...im willing to be that the collectors purchase a lot of the "good" secondary cards in quantities higher than 10-20%...dont forget that a lot of people both collect and play...I know players who spend decent cash on older cards even if they dont play with them all the time, simply for collection reasons...I also know people who have force of wills for the same reason (they might have a playset AND a nice Mint set for collection...or a cool altered art version from terese or something that isnt legal due to the backs being painted as a picture when the set is all together)

okay...now

@ Jacob

Hypothetical Situation #1...

while it MAY happen that the old forces retain their value in this situation, there is no garuntee that people will want the old ones more...perhaps a glance at the prices on Birds of Paradise right now should be an example...a year ago I saw birds going for over $15 pretty commonly...now regular birds go under 10 pretty often and its the new ones that are going well..could this happen with force??? I dunno...but maybe, heh...hey we are speaking about hypothetical situations right? I find it very hard to believe that Forces will stay at the same price though or go up if a new supply is availible...if they would be legal in extended or standard as well then many of the situations you guys are speaking about would be more valid to me...but they would still only be availible to the smallest overall pool of players. I find the odds of there not being a surplus lowering the price very low.

Hypothetical Situation #2....

While a bubble may exist (maybe) on force of will, this scenario is only possible because some players are cheap and wont shell out $18-25 for one of the most important cards in legacy and vintage....While Force is a staple card, it is by no means a requirement for entry into either format...goblins and stax are two of the top top decks in each format and neither runs forces....what you are assuming is that dealers SHOULD sell their cards right now and not try to make as much profit as possible...that would be dumb....if dealers can take a little time to make a signifigant chunk (over time) of money instead why shouldnt they...people will and do continue to buy the forces at upwards of 25 bucks and there is no point in a dealer selling for much less...couple this with the fact that they are buying them from players or other dealers at a higher price right now and they could be out at least a small amount of profit...while I know most players couldn't care less about this, I know a lot of shop owners who are hanging by a nail and they cant afford to take little hits like this that are caused artificially (meaning outside of normal attrition due to tournament playability and stuff) While a shop like SCG might not care too much if forces drop by $5 or so this can hurt a smaller dealer who just aquired a bunch, or has been holding onto them dolling them out to players over time...

While the dealers might be creating this chance of failure, something like force of will has been a pretty "safe" card for quite a while and the risk was pretty darn slim until some dude all of a sudden made up a story about a lost file in a conference room...

The attitude there is like mutual funds vs normal stock options or whatever...while mutual funds are generally safe, there isnt a gigantic amount of profit in owning them (stability yes though) but stocks are going to make you more money at a greater risk....

While you may not feel any sympathy, you kinda should since it could impact the game as a whole if they ever go beyond just one card...

anyways im tired and gotta get some sleep for the drive down to LA tomarrow...regardless of whos right the argument has been fun....

[Jacob Orlove]

My point in situation #1 wasn't that they would somehow stay at the same price, just that dealers would not be hurt by the fall in price, because they don't have any Forces in that situation.

While a bubble may exist (maybe) on force of will, this scenario is only possible because some players are cheap and wont shell out $18-25 for one of the most important cards in legacy and vintage

You have it exactly backwards. The bubble (if any) exists because dealers will not sell Forces for less than that much. If dealers simply put every Force they bought on Ebay, they'd get a fair market price for all of them, without creating any bubble. Dealers in areas where local demand for Forces is high could buy them off Ebay and sell them locally, until dealers are no longer holding on to huge piles of Forces (if they have a playset or two then they really aren't taking a big loss here--they'd have to have way more than that to take any kind of real loss). If a dealer wants to keep a huge stock of Forces, then they also have to keep the risk that Force will go down in price. If they don't want that risk, Ebay the Forces. If Force is actually worth $18-$25, they will get that much on Ebay right now. If they can't get that price on Ebay, then Force isn't actually worth $18-$25. If the price isn't actually that high, then they're only losing imaginary money to begin with.

You make it sound like there are shop owners out there who can't afford to lose $50 on their stock of Forces, though. If that's the case, how are they still in business? Card prices fluctuate all the time--they'd have lost just as much holding on to a Mox, for example. If they're losing several hundred dollars, then maybe you can make a case, but like I said before, if they have that many Forces and they can't afford the loss, they should just sell them on Ebay.

[jpmeyer]

I want to know 1) what dealer has a pile of 50 Forces and 2) how much they are charging (since they are obviously charging more than people are willing to spend on them).  SCG sells Force for $25 and they only have 9 in stock.

[SpencerForHire]

Did you ever think what happens if they don't reprint FoW?  That means they could go up as the demand for Ice Age Block rises.  As sad as it is, you know Ice Age Block is gonna be the fad for at least a season.

[xrizzo]

I thought this was a thread about the new set, not about the price of Force of Will...

First of all, force is not a $25 card.  How some people on this thread got to assuming that is beyond me.  PM me, I will sell FOWs at $25 all day long.

If you are playing vintage (which is what this site is all about) then you shouldn't be selling force of wills anyway.  (unless you have extra, in which case you are a speculator / hoarder / dealer and you know it comes with the territory)  If you don't already own them, great!  MAYBE you can get them in like 10 months a little cheaper with the new card face.  Big fuckin deal.

[Tha Gunslinga]

I want to know 1) what dealer has a pile of 50 Forces and 2) how much they are charging (since they are obviously charging more than people are willing to spend on them).  SCG sells Force for $25 and they only have 9 in stock.

I have around 55-60.  I know several people who have between 25 and 175 Forces each.  It's a VERY popular card to hoard.

[vartemis]

I thought this was a thread about the new set, not about the price of Force of Will...

First of all, force is not a $25 card.  How some people on this thread got to assuming that is beyond me.  PM me, I will sell FOWs at $25 all day long.

Funny story on a side note...

Last summer I only had 3 FOW.  I went into a local card shop that I rarely frequent due to their crappy service and jacked up prices.  They really know nothing about magic and only do it as a business.  They had gotten a large collection and had quickly sorted it to get it out to sell.  Digging through the 10 cent commons I found 5 FOW.  Yoink!  I also got a playset of beta rituals, giant growths, drain lifes, and unholy strength hehehe.  I dont use anything but the rituals, but they look cool.

Oh and I kept 1 FOW and traded the other 4 to a buddy for $50, which he paid me by buying me mcdonalds every night after we got together for cards hehehe.  Hey, It was a $49 dollar profit, and I cut him a deal cuz I got em so cheap.

j

[rhecht]

I think a good measuring stick for what happens to prices on reprints of highly playable cards is Birds of Paradise.  At Starcity a revised BOP is $16, a Ravnica BOP is $17.50, and a Beta BOP is $200.00.  I think that this shows that the pimp version of a playable card tends to hold its value.  And BOP has been printed in every set except 9th.

Regarding printing FOW in a theme deck, I think the biggest factor Wizards is going to consider is whether or not they want to release it into the Magic Online Classic format.

-Reuben

[Jacob Orlove]

I want to know 1) what dealer has a pile of 50 Forces and 2) how much they are charging (since they are obviously charging more than people are willing to spend on them).  SCG sells Force for $25 and they only have 9 in stock.

I have around 55-60.  I know several people who have between 25 and 175 Forces each.  It's a VERY popular card to hoard.

That's upwards of hundreds of players who could have playsets of Forces and don't, which very very strongly suggests that the current price is inflated. If you guys lose money, it's because you're artificially raising the price to begin with.

[Tha Gunslinga]

That's upwards of hundreds of players who could have playsets of Forces and don't, which very very strongly suggests that the current price is inflated. If you guys lose money, it's because you're artificially raising the price to begin with.

Of course it is, but the same is true for every playable card.  I know people who have hundreds of power 9, over a hundred mana drains, that kind of thing.  EVERY Type 1 card is hoarded.  Let's not even think about dual lands.

[Klep]

Of course it is, but the same is true for every playable card.  I know people who have hundreds of power 9, over a hundred mana drains, that kind of thing.  EVERY Type 1 card is hoarded.  Let's not even think about dual lands.

Consequently, that means there's a bubble on those cards too.  Those are very low-risk to hoard though, because of the reprint policy.  Force of Will is not on the list, so if they make some more that's tough cookies  for people who have been hoarding them.  Frankly I don't understand why anyone would expect Wizards to refrain from reprinting Force for anything but power reasons.  It's an intensely popular card, and quite useful.  If you want to hoard a card that isn't on the reprint list, you have to accept the risk that Wizards will reprint that card.  None of this griping about what reprinting would do to its market value is anything but sour grapes.

[Pave]

I know people who have hundreds of power 9

As essentially a player I am saddened to hear of such extreme mercantile behaviour.  Hoard something other than that which might bring joy to many and life to a format.

[Matt]

You know, multiple people each hoarding literally HUNDREDS of Power cards probably has a large effect on the bubble for P9. There's only like, what, 27,000 of each or something, right?

Reprint Force seems like just the kind of thing they might do. Probably one precon will have Force and Thaw, one will have Necro and something else (Jester's Cap?) and the others will be Coldsnap-highlighted rares.

[Whatever Works]

I know people who have hundreds of power 9

As essentially a player I am saddened to hear of such extreme mercantile behaviour.  Hoard something other than that which might bring joy to many and life to a format.

cant put it better.

[Jim Sardonic]

, one will have Necro and something else (Jester's Cap?)

Do you really think they would do Jester's Cap again, after it was in 9th? I'd think not, but then again, I'd think not on this entire situation.

[Necrologia]

I doubt there will be any Ice Age rares at all. The way I read them these were going to be Cold Snap theme decks. Since the Ice Age/Alliances cards wouldn't be Standard legal, I doubt more than a handful of the cards would be from something other than Cold Snap, and certainly none of the rares. I haven't bought a theme deck in ages, but I know lots of the old ones tended to have a few cards from previous sets, typically what were considered, or had a high chance of becoming, staples. Force of Will certainly falls under this category, Necropotence likely does not. Who wants to buy a box when the rare might as well be a goldbordered promo card for most people?