[Premium Article] So Many Insane Plays - Spotlight on the Belcher Deck

[Smmenen]

http://www.starcitygames.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=300185

Blurb:
The Turn 1 Kill... it’s an achievement as celebrated as it is derided. No deck in Vintage, despite many attempts, has ever been truly successful at executing a consistent turn 1 kill. However, Stephen believes that the surprising Goblin Charbelcher deck may have finally achieved the unthinkable. If you’re looking for a fun and competitive alternative to the usual Vintage powerhouses, then this could be the deck for you!

Note: I actually think that the Belcher deck is a good deck.   I wouldn't be surprised to see Ray Robillard or others start to just pwn people if they decided to pick it up.   

[Klep]

Well I can't say I've tested Belcher without black, but I have to say I don't like that list's extreme reliance on its opening hand.  I count only 4 cards (discounting the Stars) than can really change what's in your opening hand, and that's including the Wishes.  It's less of a problem with this build, because you have twice as many win conditions, but it still makes me uncomfortable.  It basically trades 6 or 7 ways of getting access to more of your deck (depending on whether you want to include Will), but only picks up 4 win conditions in the process and loses the versatility of being able to tutor for mana when you already have the Belcher/Empty.  I suppose having 4 Empty the Warrens as a kill adds some inevitability, but you can only wait so long before your opponent shuts you out of the game.

Speaking of reliance on the opening hand, I'm surprised you didn't address the problem that's always been at the heart of Belcher, and one of the biggest problems for people just picking up the deck: the mulliganning.  Belcher has always been quite finicky in terms of what hands you can play, but you don't address that at all.

I also think you're wrong about blue over black.  As much as Belcher has used black for acceleration, equally important was the tutoring, which allows you and only you to get access to new cards.  Windfall, as always, is just a terrible card, and draw 7's, while admittedly improving your chances, also give your opponent more chances to find the tools to stop you.  For example, I remember once casting Wheel of Fortune against an opponent such that I was pretty much guaranteed to win (I had Vamped Belcher to the top of my library and had plenty of mana).  The only thing that could have stopped me was the double Force hand my opponent drew.  Even without adding things that take heavy black mana (Bargain and Necropotence), we're talking Ancestral Recall, Tinker, Timetwister, and Windfall vs. Demonic Consultation, Demonic Tutor, Vampiric Tutor, and Yawgmoth's Will.  Given the weaknesses of draw-7's I've already addressed and the fact that Belcher tends to need specific cards more than a larger quantity of cards, I'd much rather have the latter package.

[jcb193]

No deck in Vintage, despite many attempts, has ever been truly successful at executing a consistent turn 1 kill.

I know you are trying to hype your article, but I remember losing to quite a few Urza's Saga decks before the restrictions that were hitting 60+% first turn kills.

[Dante]

Steve,

in the past you've posted the decklists (but not the article text) in posts for those non-premium users so they could follow the discussion here.  Could you do that again please?

thanks,

Bill

[BreathWeapon]

Draw 7's are worse than Necropotence, Yawgmoth's Bargain, Demonic Tutor, Demonic Consultation and either the Infernal Tutor, Spoils of the Vault, Vampiric Tutor or Imperial Seal that round out the rest of the slots, but those slots require Dark Ritual, Cabal Ritual and 4/8 Chromatic Sphere/Star and/or Bloodfire Egg to make them consistent, leaving Demonic Tutor and Demonic Consultation as the two non-conditional black cards in the deck. Adding a Tropical Island and Draw 7's into an R/g shell allows the deck to retain its red rituals while adding threats to the MD, threats that take advantage of Living Wish->Tolarian Academy.

Removing Goblin Welder and adding Draw 7 seems counter intuitive, it sounds like the deck is just using too much acceleration.

[McBain]

Steve,

in the past you've posted the decklists (but not the article text) in posts for those non-premium users so they could follow the discussion here.  Could you do that again please?

thanks,

Bill

Burning Belcher
Nat Moes


4 Goblin Charbelcher
4 Empty the Warrens

4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Rite of Flame
4 Tinder Wall
4 Land Grant
3 Seething Song
4 Chromatic Star

3 Goblin Welder
4 Pyroblast
2 Living Wish

1 Wheel of Fortune
1 Memory Jar
1 Lotus Petal
1 Lion's Eye Diamond
1 Mana Vault
1 Sol Ring
1 Mana Crypt
1 Channel
1 Chrome Mox
1 Black Lotus
5 Moxen
1 Taiga

Sideboard
4 Xantid Swarm
1 Bazaar of Baghdad
1 Mishra's Workshop
1 Tolarian Academy
1 Tin Street Hooligan
1 Uktabi Orangutan
1 Ancient Grudge
2 Shattering Spree
1 Gorilla Shaman
1 Goblin Welder
1 Taiga

And also, with blue added.

Artifacts
1 Black Lotus
2 Chromatic Sphere
4 Chromatic Star
1 Chrome Mox
4 Goblin Charbelcher
1 Lion's Eye Diamond
1 Lotus Petal
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
1 Memory Jar
1 Mox Diamond
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Sol Ring

Creatures
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Tinder Wall
 

Instants
1 Ancestral Recall
2 Pyroblast
3 Seething Song

Sorceries
1 Channel
4 Empty The Warrens
4 Land Grant
4 Rite Of Flame
1 Timetwister
1 Tinker
1 Wheel Of Fortune
1 Windfall

Lands
1 Taiga
1 Tropical Island

[nataz]

There is a semi-active thread in the improvement forum on some similar lists that people might want to check out.


Some kinda random points on burning belcher, and belcher in general.

- Like others, I'm disappointed that you didn't talk about mulligan. Figure you have up to 8 win conditions in the deck at any given time, but because of the low card draw/selection nature of the deck, you have to be very careful with what you keep. That is so easy to discover that it suggests conspicuousness or little need for perspicacity in the observer. ETW and Belcher can share many casting requirements, but there are hands that obviously lend themselves to one kill or the other. This is further complicated with ETW and Belcher's value going way up or down depending on what you are facing (Null Rod aggro v. Gifts).

- My favorite part of belcher is something that you touched on in the article; that is the four mana choke point where a control player has to decide if they are going to counter the mana source to stop a potential belcher, or risk adding storm to a possible more lethal ETW.  The tough thing about bluffing is that the better players can often make the right decisions, no matter what order you play your spells in.

- Like Klep, the choice of Blue over Black surprises me. Draw 7's over tutors? Would you rather play U to draw 3 random cards (where a huge portion of the deck is simply mana), or would you rather play B and get your kill condition on top of your deck? The exception I think would be if your focus was more on ETW rather then Belcher, which brings me to my last point.

- You mention ETW for low numbers being really good on the first turn, which I think is a terrible fallacy. Generally speaking, an ETW for 5 on turn 1 empties, or almost empties your hand. On the play, this gives a gifts or tendrils player 3 undisrupted turns to either A: find an answer in E-Truth, or B: simply win.

p.s.

Oh filters, how you confuse me sometimes

[Moxlotus]

I have been testing Belcher since ETW came out and frankly I am not that OMG INSANE impressed with ETW.  Sure, its a nice alternate win condition, but there is no way I'd play with more than 2.  Decks can simply race it.  It is a way around the stuff that hurt Belcher--like Rod.  Besides that, Belcher is so much better.  Because I'm not running 8 win conditions, the black is definitely staying because of the Tutors.  Tutors are so much better than Draw 7s.  The Dark Rituals are just bonus.  Plus, running into Trop always sucks.

I don't think I could ever cut Welders.  They are just so good.  Welder+Star gets going a lot more than people would think just looking at a list.

Living Wish is in fact amazing.  I love that card. 

[zeus-online]

After alot of testing i finally reached this point about draw spells in belcher:

Unless its a draw7, bargain or necropotence, i won't counter it...unless i got like 4 counterspells in hand.

I'll even allow the belcher player to resolve ancestral recall if he attempts it, there's a huge chance that whatever he got was just more mana sources or cards i don't care about..and hey, if one of them was a threat, i still have my counter.

My win % went up alot after i started doing this, although it seems counterintuitive to let ancestral recall resolve.
So...Unless we're talking 7+ cards, i don't like draw spells in belcher, tutors are the way to go imo.


Another random note: Seething song is awesome in belcher ::Thumbs up::*

/Zeus

*Why isn't there a thumbs up smiley?

[Disburden]

A nice refreshing article that I was honestly just not expecting this week. Thanks for the entertainment on a lousy Monday afternoon. I am glad I won these cards to test out this deck soon. I have gotten so sick of my Mana Drains lately and I was waiting for something fresh and exciting to play with. I agree that the Mulligan should have been atleast touched on slightly in this article. I think it is pretty common knowledge though that Belcher needs to be mulliganed agressively to pull off its combo. I would like some more insight on your testing and maybe some reports.

I think Empty the Warrens is pretty awesome here. I haven't really been testing this deck at all today but the inclusion of this card as a four of seems to help you fight Null Rod fish when on the play. I used to hate playing against Null Rod with Belcher because my only win condition was a clunky 7 mana artifact and I had to depend on Living Wish a lot more often that it seems to be relied on in this deck. The addition red Rituals and Simian Spirit Guides seem simple but are actually pretty genius when trying to evolve a thought-to-be extinct deck.

A fun article for Vintage players that know Vintage is about having fun and having "Insane Plays".

[Wise]

I have recently been working on a build of this which looked very similar, but never tryed it with out black, I think works quite well, and think the blue is a NEEDED addition, but what do you think about the loss of tutors? will the deck have a better chance to just run out of gas, or draw into nothing and be forced to wait? I am definately going to be testing this deck out in the close future on MWS.

[arik124]

I thinking vamping with a chromatic star trigger on the stack is just so much stronger than drawing 3 random cards.

[BreathWeapon]

It's not a question of comparing black cards vs blue cards, it's a question of the strain that the black cards place on the deck vs the strain blue cards place on the deck; blue is just a splash color that can be added to the R/g shell, thanks to Land Grant->Tropical Island and Living Wish->Tolarian Academy, where black is a third color (8 Rituals, 2 bombs that need rituals and 4 tutors) that relies on color filtering.

[nataz]

Who says you have to add all those black cards? I've been fine with 4 rits, 3-4 tutors, and will.

[policehq]

It's also a lot easier, since black has on-color acceleration, to allow yourself several black spells in a turn. It would be extremely difficult to chain together draw spells.

Regarding draw spells, the same discussion comes up as with keeping a hand that has a Memory Jar/Wheel of Fortune as the threat. Think about how many hands of 7 you mulligan. Drawing 3 can give you real doozies.

-hq

[Klep]

Regarding draw spells, the same discussion comes up as with keeping a hand that has a Memory Jar/Wheel of Fortune as the threat. Think about how many hands of 7 you mulligan. Drawing 3 can give you real doozies.

Like I said, the problem Belcher faces most often is not a lack of cards in general, but a lack of a specific card, whether that card is a kill condition or more acceleration.  For this reason, tutors are more desirable than draw spells.  And since draw 7's give your opponent a fresh hand as well, that makes blue even less desirable compared to black.

Why draw 3, hoping that what you need is in those 3, when you could just go get exactly what you need?

[twault]

I have been messing with Belcher non-stop for the last week, and I just can't find a build that I like 100%. The first list, by Nat Moes (sorry I got your name wrong, but I fixed it now  ), is really good, but I'm still not totally happy with it. Don't get me wrong, I think it works fine, but I feel like a fish out of water when I play it, but that's just me. Old habits are hard to break sometimes. I just don't like the second one with the blue splash at all.

I like Necropotence/Bargain in Belcher, but getting either into play is difficult. I think that is why I'm having a hard time finding a build that I am totally comfortable playing. A resolved Necro or Bargain is usually game over. I'm thinking about cutting the Rite of Flames for Cabal Rituals. I think there are enough red mana sources without them. Plus, I plan on running 2 Bayou and cutting the Taiga. I just don't know what to cut to make room...

[GrandpaBelcher]

Man, my name just keeps getting butchered, so I'll just have to step in:  Moes, Nat Moes.  Like the Stooge, yes, but plural.

Anyway, I have to admit that I probably won't test a list with blue in it until I see some results.  Not saying it's bad, just saying it isn't pretty.  It seems like more threats, yeah, but threats that are hard to get to since you have to produce blue off Chromatic artifacts and Tropical Island.  That just seems shaky to me.  Plus, I think for it to be worth it, you have to draw at least seven.  With Ancestral or Brainstorm, you're more likely to draw into more of the same acceleration, which is fine unless you need a threat.  That leaves you with Tinker, Windfall, and Twister, and Windfall can be weak too.  Two and a half cards just wasn't worth the hassle.

If people are worried about mulligans and want to add black for tutors, they should play 4 Belcher, at least 3 EtW, and then the tutors.  Otherwise, you're really not helping your mulligans that much.  I started cutting black when I realized that Necropotence was a two card combo, Yawgmoth's Will was weak, and the red and black rituals were competing with each other.  Maybe Shadowblood Egg is the answer in a RB build (I don't remember whose answer that is offhand, but it's not mine; I give the other guy full credit), but I really like the consistency of mono-R.

As far as mulliganning goes, it is pretty easy, kind of like Ichorid.

Do you have a win condition?
        If yes, proceed to next. 
        Else, mulligan.
    Do you have a reasonable amount of mana?
          If yes, proceed to turn 1.
          Else, mulligan.

What's a reasonable amount of mana?  What threat are you going for?  EtW needs four mana, one of which is red, and at least four storm to be worthwhile.  Belcher needs at least four mana, preferably seven, and a good chance for three more next turn.  You're far more likely to draw into mana than anything else, so Belcher without a clear fire is still a decent bet for second turn unless you used your entire hand and it was all non-permanent sources.

It takes some practice (and not confusing Rites of Flames for EtWs like I do), but mulliganning is not hard.  My feeling (and experience testing) says that you can go down to five cards and still have a reasonable turn one threat.  The deck does have a lot of broken mana, so anything's possible.

The card that bugs me most is Seething Song.  As good as it is--Belcher plus Pyroblast backup, I think I will!--Steve mentioned it as a huge bottleneck, and it is.  Once people know to counter that rather than wait for the threat (which might be EtW), you're done.  I'm not sure what to replace it with, though, and it might just be the necessary weakest three cards.

Anyway, long story short, I started playing Red Belcher because I think any time you can get the mechanics of a combo deck fairly consistent, it's going to be better.  Still, since it's a combo deck, you're going to have to mulligan, and having 10 things to mulligan towards worked out fine for me.  The last card keeping me in black was Duress, and when I realized I could play Pyroblast for approximately the same purpose, I was done.  In the end, with two different strategies, your opponent can be left holding the wrong answer at the wrong time (i.e. Echoing Truth vs. Belcher, or FoW vs. EtW), and Pyroblast answers both.

[Shrugs.]  Don't cut Channel.

[twault]

I started cutting black when I realized that Necropotence was a two card combo, Yawgmoth's Will was weak, and the red and black rituals were competing with each other.  Maybe Shadowblood Egg is the answer in a RB build (I don't remember whose answer that is offhand, but it's not mine; I give the other guy full credit), but I really like the consistency of mono-R.

[Shrugs.]  Don't cut Channel.

You couldn't be more right. That is exactly the problem. Necro is a 2-card combo in Belcher. Plus, it's a "dead" card after like the 3rd turn, but you should have already won by then, right? I just don't feel right cutting it. I can't get away from it.

It's almost like blasphemy to say that Will is weak, so let's just say it's not as strong in Belcher as it is in other decks. I'm sure certain builds could get by without it.

Cut Channel? No way! It's the fastest way to win!

Off topic: I was so tempted to throw in a Kaervak's Torch for nostalgic purposes, but feared someone would beat me down in the highly unlikely event that they get Channel-balled.

Now, back to cutting black. The biggest reason that I can't seem to wean myself from black are Necro/Bargain, tutors, Duress, and Dark Ritual.

Necro/Bargain requires a lot of resources that you may or may not have, but getting one to resolve is sheer bliss. You WILL get anything and everything you need to win. I just fear the dreaded double FOW.

I guess there are a few questions to be answered here: Can you get Necro/Bargain in play consistently without sacrificing resources that could be played to "just win?" Meaning, do you rely on Necro to draw your win condition (or the resources to play it) or mull until it's in your hand? Nat's build gets by without it just fine, but it just takes a little skill and patience to get used to it. You have to know when to mulligan. I don't think it's a deck that you just pick up and play.

The tutors: Demonic Tutor, Vampiric Tutor, Demonic Consultation. Honestly, Consultation has been the true hero for me. It can go terribly wrong, but if you are sure you have enough mana to cast and activate Belcher in the same turn, it's usually worth the risk. Vampiric is probably the weakest, because it tends to delay you a turn, but with Chromatic Stars, you could end up getting it right away.

I can't get by without these.

Duress. Hmm. While I like Duress better than Pyroblast, I'll agree that it accomplishes the same thing.

Dark Ritual is the most powerful mana accelerant in the game, so it's definitely an auto-include for just about every combo deck ever. I can't seem to get away from them either. It's just too broken.

Nat, your manabase is probably the most solid of all the builds I tested, because it only relies on 2 colors. It really took some "outside of the box" thinking to cut ties with these tried and true black "standards," but you made it work.

I just can't bring myself to give up the brokenness that some of these black cards offer...

Sorry I got your name wrong, but I fixed it!!!
 

[Implacable]

Nat:

I've been reading your blog for a while, and have noticed that you like to stray from normal archetypes and card decisions (the results of which have been good and bad).  With that in mind, will you test Summoner's Pact in your current Belcher list?

[GrandpaBelcher]

The problem isn't that Necropotence is a dead card after third turn, it's that Necropotence is a dead card before second turn too!  It takes at least one big piece of acceleration to cast, and then you have to wait to get the cards.  In my opinion, Belcher more than any other deck has what it takes to win on turn one, and Necro makes you wait until turn two.  If I ran black (and I did for a long time) I still wouldn't play Necro.  I might play Bargain because it can leave you with black mana floating and you can go for the win immediately.

Will is really weak in Belcher.  I'm not entirely sure why.  You don't have the tutors or the draw of something like Long, it's somewhat out of color, and it's hard to stock your graveyard because you usually save your mana.  More importantly, though, the threat you're going for (Belcher and activation) costs seven.  So whereas Tendrils usually just takes one extra Ritual after Will, Belcher takes at least two.  My feeling is, if you're going to run Will--in fact, if you're going to run black--run Tendrils too; it's better than EtW.

I think that's just it... Will is unsatisfying, likewise Necro, likewise Vampiric Tutor and Imperial Seal because they make you wait.  Demonic Consultation is good, but it will burn you every once in a while and it sucks playing "restricted roulette."  Dark Ritual is replaceable in red now.  Pyroblast has points over Duress, though they're about equal.  The only black cards that are really good are Yawgmoth's Bargain and Demonic Tutor, so are they worth it to also play a second land and an inconvenient splash?  I don't think so, but I know most people do.  That's cool.

Maybe just try splashing for the three good tutors?

4x Belcher
4x EtW
3x DT, VC, DC
1x Wheel
1x Jar
4x Chrome Star
2x Chrome Sphere
4x Rite of Flame
4x Land Grant
1x Taiga
1x Bayou
4x Goblin Welder
3x Tinder Wall
4x SSG
4x ESG
2x Seething Song
4x Pyroblast
1x Channel
9x Mana Artifacts

By the way, I wouldn't play 2x Bayou over something with Taiga.  Having Taiga makes it so you can take one land out and still have a reasonable shot at winning.  Figure 10 cards gone from tutoring, drawing, whatever, so you have a 50 card deck.  There's 40 positions where Taiga can be and you still win, but there are only 30 (almost half the remaining deck) for a Bayou.  It may not seem like a lot, but it's about a 20% difference between winning and misfiring.

Pre-post edit:  Thanks for reading my blog!  I will probably not test Summoner's Pact.  It's an interesting card, but one storm and one green mana (or two red mana from a Tinder Wall) aren't enough to make me that excited.  If it found Simian Spirit Guide and Welder, then maybe.  Seems like the deck that most likes Summoner's Pact is Meandeck Tendrils, since one storm and one mana is what that deck is looking for.

Post-post edit:  It's okay about my name.  I got called Matt, Nate, or Nathan all the time as a kid, and while those are all fine names, they're not mine.  Steve's gotten it wrong in a couple of articles now.

[Klep]

Will is really weak in Belcher.  I'm not entirely sure why. 

This is the exact opposite of my experience.  Will effectively doubles the value of your acceleration and tutors.  A hand that has Yawgmoth's Will can otherwise be missing critical cards such as a win condition or an accelerant.  Such hands would normally not be keepable, but the ability of Yawgmoth's Will to let you reuse cards you've already played dramatically turns that around.  All by itself, Will turns a whole class of "must-mulligan" hands into winning hands.  As long as I play black in Belcher, I will play Yawgmoth's Will.

[Moxlotus]

I've found Will to be weak.  With 8 spirit guides as mana accel, you really can't get too far from a Will.  I've found it so weak that I cut it for another Wish (i'm rolling with 1 Burning and 2 Living--they rock).

For reference, I have 3 EtW and the black cards I use are 4 Dark Rits, DT, VT, and Consult.  Imp Seal comes in and out.  The tutors are the reason to play black.  They find the 2 most important cards in your deck--Goblin Charbelcher and Mana Crypt.  Dark Rit is infinitely better than Seething Song.