TheManaDrain.com
October 09, 2025, 09:41:11 am *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
News:
 
   Home   Help Search Calendar Login Register  
Pages: [1]
  Print  
Author Topic: [Report] Myriad Games: A Study In Calculated Risk  (Read 1524 times)
Demonic Attorney
Administrator
Basic User
*****
Posts: 2312

ravingderelict17
View Profile
« on: December 10, 2007, 08:38:47 pm »

So Myriad Games didn't go so well for me this month.  That's almost entirely attributable to my decision not to sideboard against Ichorid.  I thought it reasonable enough to play the odds and devote sideboard space to other matchups, particularly the Goblins deck that seemed to be cropping up in greater numbers in recent weeks, because 0 Ichorid decks were played at the preceding Myriad Games event.  I knew one devoted Ichorid player might show up, but even that would only represent an approximately 1 in 30 chance of being paired against a bad matchup.  Even then, I still had the opportunity to win out in my other matches.  Unfortunately, things didn't go as planned.

Round 1 vs. Ichorid

Getting things off on a high note, I get paired against the unfavorable matchup early enough to put me in the X-1 bracket right off the bat.

Game 1.  My opponent mulligans to 6.  My opening hand contains Fastbond, and I draw into Lotus early.  I use that to set up a Yawgmoth's Will off Black Lotus with 2 Gush, Brainstorm, and Ponder in the graveyard, which narrowly draw me into more gas until I can ramp up enough spells to Cunning Wish for Brain Freeze and mill my opponent out for 40+ cards.

Game 2.  My opponent keeps his opening 7.  His deck is noticeably slower thanks to a large amount of enchantment hate, anticipating the Leylines I wasn't playing.  I grow a decent sized Dryad and get in position to win over the next 2 turns, but he finds a second Bazaar of Baghdad and throws my math off.  I lose.

Game 3.  My opponent keeps his opening 7.  My hand again contains Fastbond and I draw into artifact mana and a large amount of gas.  I give him a turn to refresh my resources, then spend the second turn setting up a lethal Yawgmoth's Will on turn 3, getting a Psychatog down and Vampiric Tutoring for Will.  Again, he finds a second Bazaar of Baghdad and turn 3 never comes.

Round 2 vs. Flash

Game 1.  My opening hand contains 2 Force of Wills and 2 other blue cards and I know I'm paired against Flash.  I keep.  On his opening turn, he scrolls for Flash after dropping artifact mana.  On my turn, I hold back, expecting that with 4 cards in his hand plus Flash, simple probability dictates that his backup is either a Duress, which my only hope is to counter in the hopes of bluffing him, or a Pact, which I can sidestep with my backup counter and win.  On his turn, he Flashes with Pact backup.  I Force his Flash twice.

Game 2.  My memory of this game is hazy but I recall getting a fair amount of early control cards through judicious use of Merchant Scrolls.  I Scrolled for a Misdirection as a backup counter to keep him off Scroll -> Ancestral and just tried to stay ahead.  A medium sized Dryad and a Tarmogoyf take it home after Time Walk.

Round 3 vs. GAT

Game 1.  The turning point of this game came when I Misdirected an Ancestral, giving the card advantage I needed to neutralize his offense with bigger creatures and then go off.

Game 2.  Duress and Thoughtseize punch a hole in his disruption big enough to fit Psychatog and Dryad through early, and the rest falls into place.

Round 4 vs. The Only Other Ichorid Deck There

Game 1.  My opponent keeps his opening 7.  My opening hand features 3 Duress, Thoughtseize, Ancestral, land.  I keep, anticipating I'll be able to nullify any explosive opposing starts and strip my opponent's counterspells to resolve early Ancestral.  I open with Thoughtseize and find an Ichorid hand.  I think I mentally conceded this matchup at that point.

Game 2.  My opponent keeps his opening 7.  I make an effort to outrace him, but it doesn't happen for me.  I think I was still trying to come to grips with the improbability of what happened to me that round.

Round 5 vs. GAT

I'm paired up against ELD.  He has a long shot to make t8 if he wins, I have a very long shot to make t8 if I win and if several higher-ranked players don't draw.

Game 1.  I mull to 5, and open with Thoughtseize, which gets Misdirected.  I try to stay in the game, but can only do so much.  I manage to resolve Fastbond but can only look for followup gas for another turn or two before I lose.

Game 2.  We stay fairly even until ELD plays his Fastbond with a modest number of cards in his hand and a moderately developed board.  I don't have any counters and decide not to Gush my only 2 lands back to my hand because the odds of ripping Force weren't that good, and I figured I had a better shot at trying to race.  On the next turn, ELD chains 2, maybe 3 Gushes, plays Yawgmoth's Will, and cantrips into dead draws.  ELD ends up fizzling thanks in part to a Cunning Wish that went awry and my Psychatog becomes lethal thanks to his Fastbond damage.

Game 3.  I have a solid opening hand that loses a Merchant Scroll to ELD's Duress.  I play out the rest of the early cantrips and take advantage of the lack of pressure on his side (ELD told me he held back Dryad expecting Threads of Disloyalty; that was a good decision, as I had boarded in two for this matchup) to amass disruption and then play Vamp for Fastbond.  I get it down and start to go off, finding Yawgmoth's Will, and then concede.  None of the higher-ranked players played it out and Eric was the only one with a shot at making t8. 


Naturally, the take-home lesson here is not to take risks with bad matchups.  I still believe that the odds were on my side going into the tournament, with 0 Ichorid decks having been played the month prior, and only 2 Ichorid players in attendance then.  However, as my experience amply demonstrates, unlikely things happen and it's better to have a fallback plan than not.  Certainly I'll never be caught without Ichorid hate again.
Logged

Andreas
Basic User
**
Posts: 63



View Profile
« Reply #1 on: December 11, 2007, 09:23:07 am »

Naturally, the take-home lesson here is not to take risks with bad matchups.  I still believe that the odds were on my side going into the tournament, with 0 Ichorid decks having been played the month prior, and only 2 Ichorid players in attendance then.
Actually I think you are contradicting yourself with these two sentences.

You most likely made the right decision, as you chose the sideboard configuration that gave you the highest chance at winning the tournament. However probability is a fickle thing, and this time things did not work out in your favour. This does not mean your decision was wrong.

Frank Karsten wrote an excellent article on that topic here.
Logged
Myriad Games
Master of Mountains
Full Members
Basic User
***
Posts: 1249

So Many Games - So Little Time - So Start Playing!


View Profile WWW Email
« Reply #2 on: December 13, 2007, 08:29:26 am »

Thanks for the report!
Logged

Myriad Games
Your Friendly Professional Game Stores
1-888-8MYRIAD
www.MyriadGames.com
www.Facebook.com/MyriadGames
Pages: [1]
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 0.031 seconds with 20 queries.