Community Discussion/Data gathering--dredge post board.

[pierce]

I've found that there is no general consensus to the best cards to board in vs dredge. Do to this, I'd like to gather some empirical data. Please respond honestly, and mention if you are an dredge pilot or not.

Post board, what hate cards do you fear the most and why? (for dredge players, obv)

Post board, what hate cards do you find best vs dredge and why? (others)

I'm curious to see if the two are the same, or even similar.

[meadbert]

The best card for beating Dredge is Planar Void.

[Phoenix888]

Definitely Planar Void.

[Purple Hat]

Ichorid is a Tier 3 deck.  This has been stated and confirmed by some of the best minds in Vintage: 

http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=38206.0

I suggest that you all not worry about Ichorid.  You wouldn't sideboard 6-8 cards against other Tier 3 decks, right?  I think we'd all be better off assuming that March & April were just random variance as Mr. Menendian suggests, and Ichorid will drop off going forward.  The deck is played in small numbers already, and besides, other people will hate it out, and then you can beat those people because you'll have a full sideboard vs their 1/2 sideboard. 

It seems to me like it got crushed at the ICBM both days, and I suspect the same will happen in Pittsburgh this weekend.  Ichorid's boat seems to have sailed.  As the % of Tezz drops and Workshop and Fish decks rise, Ichorid's easiest match-up makes up less and less of the metagame.

It was noted in this article that Workshop Aggro actually has an acceptable pre-SB match-up against Ichorid:
http://www.blackborder.com/q/node/2853

From the article: "This version of Shop Aggro is probably one of the few decks that has an acceptable pre-board matchup against Ichorid. Triskelion shines here since it dispatches their Narcomoebas and Ichorids, and you can also use it on your own creatures to exile Bridge from Below. If you have Triskelion with an active Welder, your chances of winning go dramatically up. Thorn and Trinisphere are also key here, since they turn off Unmask, Cabal Therapy and Dread Return. Post-board Ichorid will board artifact removal, but you have excellent hate in Tormod's Crypt, which is devastating with Welder."

The best card to sideboard against Ichorid is probably Needle, since at least that has other applications.






[Full disclosure:  I don't believe anything I just wrote, although clearly other people do.  Honestly, the best way to beat Ichorid is to pull from all the available options (Needle, Crypt, Jailer, Leyline, Extirpate, Relic) and mix it up so that they can't key off on any 1 card.  It makes sideboarding much harder for the Ichorid pilot and can lead them to SB totally wrong for G3.] 

If you don't believe anything you just wrote....uh....thanks for your contribution?

I usually find that against ichorid you want a combination of different hate cards, but I don't like leyline of the void unless there's other things I'd bring it in against floating around out there.  I like crypt and relic, planar void because I can actually cast it, and Jailer because at worst he's a creature, which is sometimes a useful thing to have in your sideboard.

Beating ichorid, more than other beating other decks, involves having a unique strategy to play their game.  If you're creative about how you use your cards you can force ichorid to interact or slow down at times when it doesn't want to.

[Smmenen]

http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=38158.0

The table at the end is an analysis of Ichorid hate effectiveness/utility.  Leyline of the Void is the best anti-Ichorid card in the abstract. 

Ichorid is always between 5-12% of a metagame field.  There were 9 Ichorids at the last Waterbury (8% of the field and 1 in top 8).

The ICBM Open day one metagame breakdown has only 79 of the 95 decklists, but lists 9 Ichorid, the same number as the Waterbury, for 11.3% of the field.   Day 2 has 5 ichorid out of 72 players, for 7% of the field.

Ichorid is a consistent part of the metagame.  Your chances of playing it are not great, but they aren't low either.    

The reason I always run a bunch of anti-Ichorid hate is this:

If there is an Ichorid in the top 8, your chances of facing it are 25%.   If there is an Ichorid in the top 4, your chances of facing it are 50%.    If your goal is to win the tournament, you must be prepared to face any deck capable of making Top 8.   Ichorid clearly is.  

[chief]

Pilot.

Planar void is the biggest blowout.  It makes you actually destroy it, instead of just bounce it like leyline of the void.  Taking away chain of vapor as an out is really annoying.  Relic and extirpate are really only annoying if you have another piece of hate to go with them, or if you find them in multiples.  Pithing needle is really unimpressive.  Jailer is good, but it's easier to deal with than a planar/leyline of the void because I can use bazaar more freely to find the answers, and once I take care of one I'll make sure I've always got a darkblast in my hand for the rest of the game until I win.  Don't forget to bring in your pyroclasm effects, either.

The real answer to beating ichorid post board is to actually test the post-board ichorid match.  I beat people with dredge all the time when I shouldn't just- and it's just because they don't know what they're doing.  People make a million and one stupid mistakes playing against dredge, usually because they don't have a firm understanding of what makes the deck go.  It's important that you take as much notice of all of their triggers as they do, and know when you can and can't interrupt them successfully.

[pierce]

 @ steve, your data is always fascinating. it is usually both applicable and well thought out. however, this post was designed to get a feel for what the community as a whole thinks.

no doubt your methodology is tactful, but you cannot make people follow your advice. i'm not interested in the abstract right answers so much as what people's actual opinions are, and why.

see, even if you are 100% correct in your analysis, it doesn't translate to real world trends. Its those trends I'm hoping to understand a little better.

@ voltron--> i contend that fish is actually a very bad matchup for ichorid. perhaps we ought to define 'fish' though, before discovering you're talking about tarmogoyfs and i'm talking about trinket mages.

@ the rest--> please make sure to state if you are a pilot or not (thnx chief). I plan to map out the data once I have a large enough sample size.

[voltron00x]

@ steve, your data is always fascinating. it is usually both applicable and well thought out. however, this post was designed to get a feel for what the community as a whole thinks.

no doubt your methodology is tactful, but you cannot make people follow your advice. i'm not interested in the abstract right answers so much as what people's actual opinions are, and why.

see, even if you are 100% correct in your analysis, it doesn't translate to real world trends. Its those trends I'm hoping to understand a little better.

@ voltron--> i contend that fish is actually a very bad matchup for ichorid. perhaps we ought to define 'fish' though, before discovering you're talking about tarmogoyfs and i'm talking about trinket mages.

@ the rest--> please make sure to state if you are a pilot or not (thnx chief). I plan to map out the data once I have a large enough sample size.

I've piloted Ichorid in Vintage only once, coming in 2nd in a 33-person tournament.  I've tested it extensively since then, and played against it twice in Vintage this year (going 2-0, both times with Oath) and once in Legacy (losing a close 3-game set in the semis of a GPT in Chicago).  I plan on playing it at Vintage Champs unless something changes, which was the semi-humorous point of my original post.  I deleted it as humor is often lost here.

Anyway, I haven't tested much against Fish but I can't imagine BUG Fish is a bad match-up for Fatestitcher Ichorid.  What do you think would make it a bad match-up?  G1 a huge chunk of Fish's cards are completely irrelevant, and G3 once Ichorid is back on the play and knows how to SB, I would think it has a big advantage again.

When I play Ichorid, there are a few things I don't want to see:

1 - My deck just refusing to let me draw Bazaar no matter how much I mulligan / powder.  This happened to me only once in 8 rounds.  I find the chance of this happening acceptable given the power level of the deck.

2 - A prepared and competent Shop player with 7-8 SB cards (only because they already have 4/1 Wasteland/Strip plus Crucible, so adding Relic/Leyline/Crypt/Needle on top can be too much to beat, especially if you have to mull aggressively to find a Bazaar).  Also, WS Aggro with Blood Moon or any other deck capable of T1 Blood moon is a little bit frightening.

3 - Random decks, such as aggro ported from other formats (like Legacy / Extended Zoo with real duals) that can break bridges and interact on an axis outside that of the normal Vintage deck.

4 - ANT / Belcher or similar T1 kill decks, because these match-ups usually come down to a roll of the dice.

Again, IMO the best SB is just to pull from a broad spectrum of effective answers.  If I, as an Ichorid player, see T0 Leyline in G2, I'm going to max on Leyline removal for G3.  If you have only 1 Leyline in the deck, and the rest is, say, 2 Jailer, 2 Crypt, 1 Needle, 1 Relic, then my sideboard plan is not effective at all.  Similarly, if you show Jailer G2, I might key off on that card and get blown out by Leyline G3.

Then again, this is also why I advocate running so many Chain of Vapor in G2.

[LordHomerCat]

I love jailer myself.  I tend to play 3 of those guys, a few other one-ofs (like a relic, a tormods, etc) and then a bunch of incidental crap like pyroclasms and ingot chewers and the like.  I have had the most success against Dredge though using jailers, probably in part because I don't like having to Mull to find Leyline and end up with a crappy hand otherwise.  I can keep any hand with a tutor if I'm running Jailer and be good to go on turn 2.

Obviously, this is from the perspective of an ichorid opponent.  What Jamison said though is by far the best way to beat Dredge: actually play some games and learn whats important.

[pierce]

voltron, we are defining fish differently, as I suspected. As hinted at in another thread, I cannot disclose my definition at this time. Come monday, I'll be fully able to explain such thoughts.

[Lou]

As an Ichorid pilot I find the biggest threat to Ichorid post board is three pieces of hate.

Two will sometimes get you there.

If only one, Ichorid should be able to get there.

Most of the time it doesn't matter what the one piece of hate is, as I can find an answer. Two gets harder and obv three is probably a blow out.

[Bone]

I play Mono U Fish with 4 Wasteland, 1 Strip Mine, 3 Stifle, 1 Misdirection, 4 Force of Will, 3 Daze, 4 Cursecatcher, 1 Echoing Truth, 1 Hurkyl's Recall

Vs Ichorid I have 3 Tormod's Crypt, 2 Relic of Progenitus, 1 Echoing Truth in the board.

My plan vs Ichorid is:

a) Shut down Bazaar (Wasteland, Strip Mine, Stifle)
b) Remove their dredgers/graveyard (Tormod's Crypt, Relic of Progenitus)
c) Shut down Bridge from Below (Cursecatcher)
d) Play Echoing Truth on a Zombie the turn they swing...

I hate Chalice of the Void at 0 because it stop's my Tormod's Crypt (unless I bounce chalice)
and I hate Cabal Therapy because it takes out my Echoing Truth...

I feel my Ichorid matchup is okay, I have dedicated 1/3 of my sideboard to this...
I hate

[wiley]

As an Ichorid pilot I find the biggest threat to Ichorid post board is three pieces of hate.

Two will sometimes get you there.

If only one, Ichorid should be able to get there.

Most of the time it doesn't matter what the one piece of hate is, as I can find an answer. Two gets harder and obv three is probably a blow out.

This.

Two pieces of hate makes for an interactive game that dredge can still have a decent to good chance to win against.  3 is the deck's trinisphere, crucible, strip; while you may be able to beat it, it is incredibly hard.

The best consensus hate card is jailor from my experience.  The best actual card in practice is planar void as it does everything leyline does and can be cast (ie it can be tutored for just like jailor, and it actually gets rid of their yard just like leyline).

[FAVO!!!!1]

I made top 8 of the last Philly Open with Fatestitcher Ichorid running a single main deck Realm Razor to push the mirror match in my favor game 1. With as much as I would like to say my skills got me my top 8, I will also have to credit the fact that I know most of my opponents have not tested against "that deck" just from the reactions I got after the round. This isn't to say that my opponents were bad players - they were all very skilled players who have top 8ed multiple events in the Philly area. I'm just reassuring the fact that you do need to playtest against "that deck" in order to understand all the silly little interactions that goes on. I have seen multiple opponents pop a Crypt or Force a card at the wrong time

The only player I lost to all day (in round 5 and top 8) was able to beat me after drawing his crypt and 2 Jailors games 2 and 3. Game 3 was rough on me though, as I dispatched his first Jailor and refused to draw any dredgers with two bazaar's in 3 turns before he was able to draw and cast his second Jailor.

So on to the question:

The cards I hate seeing the most are Planar Void, Yixlid Jailor, and Cursecatcher. They first two are both very cost efficient answers that are nearly impossible for the deck to play around. Simply bouncing either of those cards is not good enough, which is why I play the full 8 discard cards. Cursecatcher requires me to have the extra mana in order to get the most efficient use of my Dread Returns, and sometimes that same ability prevents me from going stupid.

 Pithing Needle is another hard card to play around, but at least it doesn't affect my graveyard (and all I really need is 1 activation with Bazaar to get the ball rolling.)

Echoing Truth doesn't scare me as much as it use to, mainly cause of the Dread Return targets I am playing with. Just as I have mentioned before, I only need one Bazaar activation to really get going (and with 12 dredgers, its almost impossible to not hit one in your first x cards), so losing my Bazaar versus your x lands + 1 extra card is most certainly worth the trade. This concept also holds true for Wasteland and Strip Mine.

And the hypnotist ability will always cripple your opponent with the first activation... The 2nd and 3rd is usually the final stab.

Crypt and Relic are easy cards to play around - Just don't go stupid Dredge happy and you'll be fine.

[Troy_Costisick]

c) Shut down Bridge from Below (Cursecatcher)

Do you mean Dread Return?

[policehq]

Sacrificing Cursecatcher to counter a spell (or not) removes Bridge from Below from the game, so he could mean either.

[Bone]

c) Shut down Bridge from Below (Cursecatcher)

Do you mean Dread Return?

Sacrificing Cursecatcher to counter a spell (or not) removes Bridge from Below from the game, so he could mean either.

I ment Bridge from Below (especially if he have multiples in the gy), but it sure is nice against Dread Return also (along with my other counterspells)