Beder,
I've been testing a very similar deck but I do strongly disagree with a couple core choices of yours:
1. 17 land is too many. I think that 15-16 is just fine and here's why:
2. Thwart is not as good as Daze. I realize that Thwart is a hard counter, but it is just plain too slow. I'd cut Thwart for Daze and then trade out Pierce for 3-4 Mana Drain as your 2nd hard counter to FoW.
In this build, without full moxen but still using high CC spells, even if I weren't using thwart I would still use 16 lands (instead of 17).
Here, I add the 17th land because of Thwart, you are right about that relationship.
Then and when it comes to Thwart, I don't feel like it is too slow in this build. With one exploration, it comes very frequently online turn 2. If not, turn 3. That's why I also use spellpierce, as an early game disruption. In your build, you replaced my spellpierces with your dazes (for early game) and my thwarts with your drains (for mid late game). This is a different approach.
For the time being, I have to say that I am really happy with the Thwart which were extremely good to me during testings.
3. I think your deck should be running Trygon Predator. It is one of the best Cobra Sinks and an amazing tool against Shops. I think it is wayyy too good to omit.
You are right, they are amazing against Shops. I used to have another creature package, made of 3 lotus cobra, 3 tarmos and 3 trygon predator. I keep adding and removing the Trygon. I guess it is a meta call. Even without the trygon, the deck already has some good weapons against shops.
Do you need the trygon main? For sure if you are in a meta with a lot of shop. If not, then I think there may be some other options, especially because with gush coming back, blue decks use less mana artifact.
4. 4 Jace is too many. 3 is generally just fine. You don't wanted to get flooded with them.
I want one to stick as soon as possible. If I have 2 of them in hand, this is not such a big deal :
- either the first one is countered, and I am happy to have the other one in hand,
- or the first one sticks and I should be able to brainstorm the other one back into library.
Jace is THE card that I want to play really fast.
6. Coatl is cute, but I think too costly. I've been testing out Vinelasher Kudzu and have been super impressed with how fast he grows. It's not uncommon to have a 6/6 Kudzu within 2 turns of casting it. That is just as fast (if not faster) than Coatl and costs U less to play. I think Kudzu is better hands down as it interacts with a ton of cards in your deck while Coatl only gets +1/+1 a turn unless you have Jace or Gush. Coatl is definitely solid with an active Jace, but otherwise it is pretty slow and clogs up the 3 CMC slot. I could be wrong, but I just don't like it too much.
I tested Vinelasher but was not as impressed as you are. Perhaps I should give it another try.
But considering Lorescale and to be complete, you cannot just consider gush and jace. You also have to consider ancestrall, brainstorm, ponder, merchant scroll (for gush or ancestrall) and compulsive research. In the end, this is :
- 1 cards => +1/+1
- 4+1 = 5 cards => +2/+2 (counting merchant as a gush, which is the worst case scenario when it comes to lorescale growing)
- 4+1+1+1 = 7cards => +3/+3 (jace, brainstorm, ancestrall and compulsive research)
So in the end, there are 13 cards to grow him more than the automatic +1/+1 each turn. And those cards may be chained.
7. No answer to Tinker? I think you need some sort of control to the fatty race. I personally love Sower Of Temptation and run 3 MD for Fish and Tinker--> Bot. It's not hard to get to 4 mana quickly with an active Cobra.
Well, Sower does not help against Tinker=>Inkwell. For other tinker targets, I use jace.
8. I understand Brainstorm in a Coatl build as well as Compulsive Research, but overall I think those cards are a bit weak and 1-ofs that are tutors are definitely bad. Scroll's power is greatly diminished when you don't run Tendrils or Yawgmoth's Wil and I really don't think it belongs in this deck at all. Same goes for Ponder. Again, I understand Brainstorm due to the inclusion of Coatl, but I'd even cut that as I don't like Coatl.
With Gush, brainstorm is clearly a mvp. Ponder is also pretty good at finding that extra land, another gush or even an exploration. I would never/never cut them in such a build.
On the opposite and when it comes to Compulsive research or Merchant scroll, I agree with you. Right now, those two slots are under discussion. For the time being, those are the latest "best options" I found for the 2 last slots, with regard to this build game plan.
In the end, your approach is pretty different and that's good. That's what makes us improve our ideas. Good to see that other player are interested in using exploration