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Author Topic: [Free Article] September-October Metagame Breakdown  (Read 2412 times)
Smmenen
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« on: November 16, 2009, 12:10:13 am »

http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/misc/18289_So_Many_Insane_Plays_The_Legacy_Matchup_Grid_The_SeptemberOctober_Vintage_Metagame_Report.html

Editor's Blurb:

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Monday, November 16th - In today’s double header edition of So Many Insane Plays, Stephen Menendian examines the current Legacy metagame before turning his eye to the Vintage scene. With graphs, stats, and theories aplenty, Stephen brings us the Eternal lowdown as only he can!


There is tons of data in this article.    I've graphed the performance of every major Vintage archetype.   Too often our views of Vintage are skewed by perception.   Empirical data is good.   Check it out.  
« Last Edit: January 29, 2010, 02:06:45 pm by Smmenen » Logged

Neonico
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« Reply #1 on: November 16, 2009, 03:26:18 am »

It's totally not screwed by perceptions. That just tend to confirm that players all around the world adapted their deck choices to beat the dominant deck. Remember our discussion when your last breackdown article came down ? The fact that there is a few american tournaments, where tezz was really dominant, everywhere else, people just adapted a little faster.
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voltron00x
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« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2009, 03:52:32 pm »

First, this was a great article.  The Legacy portion was well done, and the work you put into the meta reports is always appreciated.

Your comments on Dredge were interesting to me.  For one thing, the sample size was quite small.  For another, there were at least two distinctive builds on display in that tournament, but more likely there were three:

-Parcher-style LED Ichorid
-Bloodghast Ichorid
-Non-LED Ichorid

Lumping all of them together doesn't make that much sense to me... LED Ichorid vs non-LED should show some match-up differences. 

You may be correct in that as far as Legacy goes, Dredge's win % is hate-dependant and independant of match-up %s, but I'm still not convinced that's true.  For instance, I don't think Zoo and ANT have remotely similar Ichorid match-ups; ANT decks rarely have ANY Ichorid hate at all in Legacy, and this is often also true of Zoo, but most Ichorid players are happy to play Zoo and not so excited to play ANT.  Further, what is true of Legacy is not necessarily true of Vintage.  From your comments on TMD last week, I was expecting proof that your assertion was true in Vintage.

Anyway, great work as always.
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Smmenen
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« Reply #3 on: November 16, 2009, 10:31:45 pm »

I have the Ichorid lists, and could try to see if there were distinctions between builds, if you would like.

On topic:

In terms of Vintage, I've really tried to make this information as useful as possible.   As I said in the article, Vintage is now the only format without regular major tournaments like Grand Prix or SCG $5ks to shape and push the metagame.    As such, metagame perceptions play a bigger and more important role.  Knowing the actual data behind the perceptions is a tremendously valuable tool.   As such, I've tried to make this as useful and informative as possible.    I'm providing more trend line graphs, more statistical analysis, and tracking greater amounts of data.  

I see this data and these reports, more and more, as you can tell by both my tone and language, like financial reports you might see in the Wall Street Journal.   I've even adopted the metaphor of "stock" to describe the rise/decline of various trend lines, and 'growth' and 'decline,' to describe the direction of those trend lines. 

As a teaser, here is my excerpt on Dredge:


Quote
Dredge saw the most growth, and it increased by three and half percentage points, almost 40% growth. However, it's not clear that this growth will be sustained, as Dredge tends to fluctuate over time, as the chart below shows:





I perform the same sort of analysis for every major archetype, and I plan to continue to do so.  I also do the same thing by engine.  

I have fluctuated in the degree of detail and content I've included in some of these reports, for various reasons.  But I'm clearly moving now towards providing even more detailed reports.    I will disaggregated the graphs by engine in future reports, instead of reporting all of the engine trend lines on the same line.

Also, as I said, I've started tracking Force of Will and Time Vault, which I had not done in previous articles.   And, I will probably track other major cards like Yawg Will and Tinker, and go back through old data to create trend lines for those cards.  

I hope the community recognizes what a valuable resource this can be -- just as Phil Stanton's work a few years ago was so valuable.  
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Odd mutation
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« Reply #4 on: November 17, 2009, 08:05:05 am »

Great work Steve! Very interesting info. Must be tons of work...

Robrecht
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Shean
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« Reply #5 on: November 17, 2009, 11:06:43 am »

Steve-

You may have just sold a premium membership to SCG, but I'm not sure yet.
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Smmenen
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« Reply #6 on: November 17, 2009, 05:04:51 pm »

Glad to hear it.   Take a look at the responses in the SCG forums, if you need a second opinion : )

Any other questions or comments about the Vintage analysis in this article? 
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Smmenen
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« Reply #7 on: January 29, 2010, 02:07:10 pm »

This article is now free! 

SCG changes their premium policy, so this is now available to everyone a few weeks earlier. 
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