Mulliganing with Noble Fish

[Bongo]

Since I'm relatively new to Fish, I need to improve my mulligan skills with it. I figured that one of the best ways is to get the opinions of more experienced players. What better place than themanadrain.com?
Here's where you come in: I'm going to present you a few starting hands to comment - it would be nice if you write more than "keep" or "mull", I'm more interested in the thinking process.

For reference, I'm using this deck: Noble Fish by Harald David, 4th place out of 348 players, http://www.deckcheck.net/deck.php?id=35686


Assume that you are on the play, and you don't know what your opponent is playing. Let's go:

1. Tropical Island, Tundra, Tarmogoyf, Black Lotus, Daze, Daze, Misty Rainforest

2. Misty Rainforest, Flooded Strand, Null Rod, Black Lotus, Swords, Swords, Wasteland

3. Mox Emerald, Trygon Predator, Stifle, Wasteland, Tropical, Tundra, Misty Rainforest

4. Tarmogoyf, Polluted Delta, Noble Hierarch, Tundra, Mox Pearl, Null Rod, Time Walk

5. Tropical, Tropical, Misty Rainforest, Daze, Force of Will, Tarmogoyf, Trygon Predator


Is there a hand you would keep on the play, but mulligan on the draw (or vice versa)? If so, please mention why.

[silvernail]

Hands 3-5 seem reasonable, you have some kind of disruption and plenty of mana combined with at least one guy to swing with.

Hands 1 and 2 are keepable if you are in game 2 and know what your opponent is playing ( IE null rod or swords will really help you vs a given deck ), but in game one against an unknown deck I'd throw those two hands back because the little disruption might not be enough and you have no real gas to follow up with.

[MaximumCDawg]

I'll shoot.  Bear in mind that I've only been running Noble Fish for a few weeks at this point.  So, if I make a silly mistake, someone come correct me.

In general, I like to keep hands where I can run disruption and threats more or less simultaneously in the first two turns.  So, if the hand has at least one decent threat and a package of mana denail or counterspells, it gets kept.  The nice thing about Noble Fish is that most of its threats are also disruption, so you can keep creature-heavy hands.

1. Tropical Island, Tundra, Tarmogoyf, Black Lotus, Daze, Daze, Misty Rainforest

The danger here is that the opening hand has no long-term disruption.  It's really fast, but after t2 there isn't much to stop your opponent.  

Still, I'd keep on the play.  I anticipate playing Rainforest, Lotus, Tarmgoyf, go; fetch and counter opponent's t1 threat with Daze; Goyf swinging with +3/+3 on my second turn, and I've still got Daze backup.  Opponent is under alot of pressure very quickly.  Depending on what he is playing, this might put it away.  On the draw, if I truly have no sense of what the opponent is playing, I'd probably keep this, too, with the same intentions.

2. Misty Rainforest, Flooded Strand, Null Rod, Black Lotus, Swords, Swords, Wasteland

This depends on the type of the tournament.  If it is a no-proxy enviornment, I'd pitch this since it has no threats.  If it is a proxy enviornment, then it's a harder choice.  T1 Lotus, Rod, Wasteland will stop non-ritual, non-shop decks cold on t1.  There's the potential for a blowout if they kept a hand with no basics and/or moxen.  But, you've got no followup.  

I think, on balance, I'd pitch this hand.  I'd be too worried about an opponent wriggling free of the mana denail in the first few turns (using fetches or whatever) while I struggle to find a threat in topdeck mode.

3. Mox Emerald, Trygon Predator, Stifle, Wasteland, Tropical, Tundra, Misty Rainforest

This hand guarantees is that, by t2, you can punish them from running out a fetchland or non-basic.  T1 Tropical (stifle online), T2 Waste is a pretty good mana denail package.  Unlike the first hand, you've got a T2 or 3 Trygon Predator for backup.  I'd worry about silliness like T1 Shop + Mox into Lodestone, but T2 Wasteland wrecks shop's mana base and T3 Predator demands an answer or it's GG.  Keep this on the play.  Keep on the draw as well, losing the ability to stifle the T1 fetch is all.

4. Tarmogoyf, Polluted Delta, Noble Hierarch, Tundra, Mox Pearl, Null Rod, Time Walk

Totally keep this on the play or the draw.  T1 Delta->Tropical, Pearl, Tarmogoyf; T2 Tundra, Hierarch, swing +2/+2, then Time Walk and do it again at +3/+3, then lay Null Rod and pass.  Great board presense, but you're quickly in topdeck mode.  T1 Tarmogoyf dodges Spell Pierce on the draw, so the only real worry is FoW.

5. Tropical, Tropical, Misty Rainforest, Daze, Force of Will, Tarmogoyf, Trygon Predator

Keep.  You can play T2 Goyf and T3 Predator with counterspell backup the whole way.

[Bongo]

Thanks MaximumCDawg. Come on, where are all the other people? I remember this board to be pretty vibrant a year ago. Is there a Vintage crisis?

I mulled the first two hands, I don't think it's even close. Maybe I'm too aggressive?

The third hand is also shaky if my opponent has basics and something threatening. This hand also loses to Storm, which made me a little hesitant, but in the end I kept.

[urweak]

I dont know if its bad advice or not. But for me I just mull till I get a hand with enough mana sources. If I get greedy and try an mull into the nuts I usally just get mana screwed (my build runs 17 lands plus the on color moxen and lotus). So basically as long as I can turn one a Noble or have enough mana for a turn 2, 2 drop i keep.

[MaximumCDawg]

Probably unwise to keep a hand just because of mana sources.  Remember, in Vintage a single turn makes all of the difference.  A fish hand MUST have at least ways to keep a bottle on the opponent, preferably even on the play, or be able to start running out multiple threats early.  If you can't do either of those two things, throw it back.  You'd lose anyway.

[Killane]

Mulligans, especially in Vintage more than any other format, cannot be reduced to simple systems of "2-3 land, keep" or "no disruption, throw away" (though the 2nd point is far more valid than the first). You must consider multiple factors when mulliganing:
-what is your opponent playing?
-are you on the play or the draw?
-what game is it (if it's game 2 and you n game 1, you can afford to keep a high risk, high reward type of hand that you might want to ditch if you lost game 2. Depending on the matchup, game three might involve a choice surrounding how good ther matchup is, etc...)
-wat do you need to win this match?
-what lines of play are open to you based on your hand? (a one-lander with Ancestral, FoW, something else blue and some other good cards is likely a keeper, regardless of 1-land, but then this might not be true vs Workshop Prison, etc....)

I'm sure there are others, but I think you get the point. If you lock yourself into a "system" you will deny yourself the ability to be flexable and adapt to sitations that you can't forsee.

[bosoxdave]

Pretty much you don't ever care about Spell Pierce playing Noble Fish.

It says "non creature spell"

Hand 1 on the play without knowledge is a ballsy keep.  You can do it and rock them and you can do it and fizzle hard.  Really it is all about how ballsy you want to play it.  

If you play it, here is what it looks like.  

Play Trop
Play Lotus
Crack Lotus for Green
Play Goyf (Counter FoW with Daze if it happens)
Pass


Hand 2  I would not keep unless I knew what the opponent was on.  

Double Swords could be two dead cards in hand against the wrong opponent.  The mana denial is not rock hard and you have no guarantees to draw a threat any time soon.


Hand 3  This is another tough hand to judge if you have no idea what the player is on.

I would keep...

Play like this.

T1:  Rainforest
Emerald
Pass (Hope to stifle a T1 fetch; crack for basic Island)

T2:  Wasteland
Tap all mana sources (unless they dropped a non-basic, in which case take it out with stifle back up)
Play Trygon (if you still have wasteland)

Decision tree is too large to continue to consider based on draws and the mana denial package


Hand 4  Keep this hand on the play

Play as Maximum listed it.


Hand 5  Keep it

Should be an obvious play.




Keep in mind one of the benefits of Noble Fish is that it can be meta-gamed with ease.  

In all honesty I prefer Meddling Mages in the sideboard because getting one early in game 1 can be a huge waste, by the time that you are ready to name an important card, Meddling Mage is usually a dud if not too late.  

I would suggest looking into Vendilion Cliques in the main, they can be a complete house and have evasion.

[Delha]

Pretty much you don't ever care about Spell Pierce playing Noble Fish.

Force of Will is not a creature. One of the big advantages of Spell Pierce is being able to drop a threat and protect it for +U instead of +UU.

[bosoxdave]

Pretty much you don't ever care about Spell Pierce playing Noble Fish.

Force of Will is not a creature. One of the big advantages of Spell Pierce is being able to drop a threat and protect it for +U instead of +UU.

This is what I was referring to.

T1 Tarmogoyf dodges Spell Pierce on the draw, so the only real worry is FoW.

My point is that, yes of course, Spell Pierce is important for YOU to have.  But the vast majority of your threats are not susceptible to Spell Pierce.

[Delha]

Pretty much you don't ever care about Spell Pierce playing Noble Fish.

Force of Will is not a creature. One of the big advantages of Spell Pierce is being able to drop a threat and protect it for +U instead of +UU.

This is what I was referring to.

I think you misunderstood what I was referring to. I that as the Noble Fish player, when you try to Force a Tinker/Oath/etc, you do certainly do care about an opposing Spell Pierce.

[bosoxdave]

Allow me to quote myself.

My point is that, yes of course, Spell Pierce is important for YOU to have.  But the vast majority of your threats are not susceptible to Spell Pierce.

I think we agree.

[Delha]

Allow me to quote myself.

My point is that, yes of course, Spell Pierce is important for YOU to have.  But the vast majority of your threats are not susceptible to Spell Pierce.

I think we agree.

I don't think we do. But whatever, you just don't seem to get it, and I don't care to put in the effort of clarifying further.

[bosoxdave]

Let's set this straight.

Force of Will is not a threat in the sense of the word.  It is control and it is protection.  It is not a threat.  As a Noble Fish player you don't care about Spell Pierce nearly as much as most other viable top tier decks because their threats are susceptible to it and once again your threats are not. 

You are seemingly splitting hairs with me.  Your argument seems to be that you want to be able to protect your Force of Will with a Spell Pierce or you want to have Spell Pierce to counter their Force of Will.  Well, of course you do.  I stated above that as a Noble Fish player, you want to run Spell Pierce in the main without a doubt.

If for some reason you get into a counter war where they force your Tarmogoyf and you pierce back and then they pierce your pierce, well guess what!  Noble Fish isn't designed to win a counter war that deep.  Guess what else!  You just lost 1 Tarmogoyf and 1 Spell Pierce, they just lost 1 Force of Will, 1 blue card and 1 Spell Pierce.  That is card advantage!

I really am not certain what your argument is or how you think you are correct on this.  Know what most decks board out when playing Noble Fish?  Spell Pierce.  This takes us straight back to my original point:  As a Noble Fish player, you pretty much don't care about Spell Pierce in the opponent's hand. 

[Delha]

Force of Will is not a threat in the sense of the word.  It is control and it is protection.  It is not a threat.

As a Noble Fish player, you pretty much don't care about Spell Pierce in the opponent's hand.

The line I responded to never said anything about FoW being a threat. Read it again, and tell me where it says anything about threats.

You are seemingly splitting hairs with me.  Your argument seems to be that you want to be able to protect your Force of Will with a Spell Pierce or you want to have Spell Pierce to counter their Force of Will.  Well, of course you do.  I stated above that as a Noble Fish player, you want to run Spell Pierce in the main without a doubt.

If for some reason you get into a counter war where they force your Tarmogoyf and you pierce back and then they pierce your pierce, well guess what!  Noble Fish isn't designed to win a counter war that deep.  Guess what else!  You just lost 1 Tarmogoyf and 1 Spell Pierce, they just lost 1 Force of Will, 1 blue card and 1 Spell Pierce.  That is card advantage!

You still don't get it. None of this was what I was saying. Go back and reread.

[bosoxdave]

Here are the two things that you said.  No question about it.  100% direct quotes, typos and all.

Force of Will is not a creature. One of the big advantages of Spell Pierce is being able to drop a threat and protect it for +U instead of +UU.

I think you misunderstood what I was referring to. I that as the Noble Fish player, when you try to Force a Tinker/Oath/etc, you do certainly do care about an opposing Spell Pierce.

In the first quote you argue that you need to be able to drop a threat (i.e. in this deck a creature) and protect the threat with Spell Pierce.  No argument there right?

In the second quote you completely back track and start talking about caring about an opposing player countering your FoW with a Spell Pierce.  A completely different scenario.  No argument there right?

Just for the record, the point that you took issue with from me is my original statement, being this:

Pretty much you don't ever care about Spell Pierce playing Noble Fish.

It says "non creature spell"

and clarified to this:

My point is that, yes of course, Spell Pierce is important for YOU to have.  But the vast majority of your threats are not susceptible to Spell Pierce.

No argument there right?


Now let me restate what is quoted above.  Yes! Spell Pierce is very important for a Noble Fish player to run.  In fact, I run 4 main in my build.

Let me further clarify.  Sure you can be concerned about getting into a counter-battle with an opponent, but seeing as Noble Fish is not designed to win counter-battles this is really a null point.  The creatures that a Noble Fish player runs are that players threats.  The reason that this deck is viable in the current meta is that you can run creatures to solve many of your problems.  Sure an opponent can Tinker, I run Aven Mindcensor.  Aven Mindcensor CANNOT be countered by Spell Pierce.  Sure they can play Oath, preboard I run 7 creature answers to Oath.  Guess what!  None of those can be countered by Spell Pierce.  That is my entire argument. 

Here is my admission to your point (at least what I can gather your point is because all you have done is made two separate and weak arguments and then told me I don't get what you are saying):  Yes, a well timed Spell Pierce by the opponent - usually protecting their threat - can lose a Noble Fish player the game.  HOWEVER, the frequency of that happening should be very narrow compared to all of the other decks that people run Spell Pierce to get around.  Which equates directly back to my original point that as a Noble Fish player you are almost never worried about Spell Pierce in the opponents hand. 

[MaximumCDawg]

Uh, wow.  I didn't mean to start a fight when I mis-spoke; in my original post, I meant to say that Tarmogoyf dodges DAZE on the draw, not spell pierce.  I think BoxoxDave corrected me, and then you guys went off on some semantic tangent.  Sorry about that.

I think we can all agree that:
(1) Fish doesn't mind spell pierce as much as decks whose win conditions (vault/key, tinker) can be piereced; and
(2) Spell pierce can target Force of Will.

Thats all you guys are saying, right?

[Delha]

Pretty much you don't ever care about Spell Pierce playing Noble Fish.

It says "non creature spell"

Force of Will is not a creature. One of the big advantages of Spell Pierce is being able to drop a threat and protect it for +U instead of +UU.

FFS, read the quotes and THINK for a second. When does Noble Fish EVER drop a threat and need UU to protect it up? Never. What is the first Vintage card you think of when I tell you I'm trying to keep UU open? Hint: IT'S THE NAME OF THIS FORUM.

Read both those quotes again, in sequence. You say that Noble Fish doesn't care about people casting Spell Pierce against you because it doesn't hit creatures. I pointed out that FoW is not a creature, then expanded on why this was relevant. What I was saying, and what you have failed for half a page to comprehend, is that I was talking about the FISH player casting FoW.

The DRAIN player is casting Tinker/Oath/etc, the FISH player is casting FoW, and the DRAIN player is protecting their threat with Spell Pierce. That's why I tried to clarify in the quote below (correction in bold):

I think you misunderstood what I was referring to. I meant/was saying that as the Noble Fish player, when you try to Force a Tinker/Oath/etc, you do certainly do care about an opposing Spell Pierce.

I realized that you were misattributing the use of Spell Pierce to the Fish player, when that wasn't the point either of us was trying to make in the first place.

In the first quote you argue that you need to be able to drop a threat (i.e. in this deck a creature) and protect the threat with Spell Pierce.  No argument there right?

WRONG.

In the second quote you completely back track and start talking about caring about an opposing player countering your FoW with a Spell Pierce.  A completely different scenario.  No argument there right?

WRONG. Assuming you finally got the attribution of spells right (FoW for Fish, Pierce for opponent), you got amazingly close, then missed the connection between my two statements.

Fish is a aggro-control deck. Relative to all the other decks in Vintage, your creatures are crap. Goyf is nowhere near the realm of DSC/Sphinx/Terastodon. The reason Fish wins is because practically all of it's beaters are doubling as lock pieces (alongside Rod/Waste/Daze/FoW/etc), buying you time to smash face. FoW is the single most important "lock piece" any blue based control deck has access to. Consider that you are attacking their manabase, then take another look at MY original statement:

One of the big advantages of Spell Pierce is being able to drop a threat and protect it for +U instead of +UU.

[Elric]

-what game is it (if it's game 2 and you n game 1, you can afford to keep a high risk, high reward type of hand that you might want to ditch if you lost game 1 [my correction]. Depending on the matchup, game three might involve a choice surrounding how good ther matchup is, etc...)

This bolded advice doesn't make sense.  You should maximize your chance to win each game regardless of what has happened in prior games. 

There may be slight changes in how you want to play based on the time remaining/whether you won game 1 if there's a reasonable chance the match goes to time.  I also assume that your chance to win each game is independent; you may wish to change strategy when this isn't the case (e.g., game 1 you concede in response to Jester's Cap that would remove all win conditions, as the slim chance of decking the opponent by Ancestral Recalling him twice isn't worth letting him see your whole deck if he hasn't seen much already).  I have seen neither factor mentioned in any advice so far

[bosoxdave]

FFS, read the quotes and THINK for a second. When does Noble Fish EVER drop a threat and need UU to protect it up? Never. What is the first Vintage card you think of when I tell you I'm trying to keep UU open? Hint: IT'S THE NAME OF THIS FORUM.

Read both those quotes again, in sequence. You say that Noble Fish doesn't care about people casting Spell Pierce against you because it doesn't hit creatures. I pointed out that FoW is not a creature, then expanded on why this was relevant. What I was saying, and what you have failed for half a page to comprehend, is that I was talking about the FISH player casting FoW.

The DRAIN player is casting Tinker/Oath/etc, the FISH player is casting FoW, and the DRAIN player is protecting their threat with Spell Pierce. That's why I tried to clarify in the quote below (correction in bold):

Fish is a aggro-control deck. Relative to all the other decks in Vintage, your creatures are crap. Goyf is nowhere near the realm of DSC/Sphinx/Terastodon. The reason Fish wins is because practically all of it's beaters are doubling as lock pieces (alongside Rod/Waste/Daze/FoW/etc), buying you time to smash face. FoW is the single most important "lock piece" any blue based control deck has access to. Consider that you are attacking their manabase, then take another look at MY original statement:

One of the big advantages of Spell Pierce is being able to drop a threat and protect it for +U instead of +UU.

Yes I missed your point before.  I still think you are incorrect.  As a Fish player you are concerned about the THREAT they drop (in your words: Tinker/Oath/etc) not the subsequent protection that they may have.  Once again as I have stated several times.  Noble Fish is not designed to win counter-wars.  This is flat out irrefutable, most fish players run 8 counters maximum and don't have enough search pieces to go get a counter piece when they so desire.  The Noble Fish player does not run Sensei's top, Mana Drain, etc.  As you pointed out, the reason for this is because our creatures are lock/control pieces too (as I pointed out above).  And once again back to the major point Spell Pierce does not touch Noble Fishes threats.  To repeat myself, Oath is vulnerable to Trygon and Pridemage, Tinker is vulnerable to Mindcensor, this is how Noble Fish wins games, not by worrying about an opponents Spell Pierce. 

Again, like I said above:  An opponent with a Spell Pierce can cause you to lose a game, but the frequency of that being the case is A.  Usually held to game 1 because most intelligent opponents will board out Spell Pierce.  and B.  Rare enough to be inconsequential in the grand scheme of things.

You are really arguing a point just to argue.  Honestly answer this question:

What deck does not board out Spell Pierce in portion or entirety when playing Noble Fish?

The obvious answer to this question proves my point. 

[Delha]

Yes I missed your point before.  I still think you are incorrect.  As a Fish player you are concerned about the THREAT they drop (in your words: Tinker/Oath/etc) not the subsequent protection that they may have.

This makes no sense. If you are concerned about their threat, why would you consider their protection to be irrelevant? As mentioned in my prior post, Fish does not make broken plays. It wins because it stops the opponent's broken plays, which buys it the time to beat down.

If they can protect their threats, you will almost always lose, since their spells so heavily outclass yours. Note that they also run more acceleration than you, meaning they are casting those threats just as quickly as you are dropping dudes. You absolutely need counters to close the gaps, and anything that lets them punch through those counters is bad for you. I agree entirely that Pierce far from ideal against Fish. What I've been disagreeing with this entire time is your claim that is it practically useless against Fish.

You are really arguing a point just to argue.

If you may recall, I tried to give up on this, and told you repeatedly to just reread the prior posts and figure it out on your own. You kept on going, and eventually frustrated me enough to get real responses again.

[Harlequin]

1. Tropical Island, Tundra, Tarmogoyf, Black Lotus, Daze, Daze, Misty Rainforest

Turn 1 you've got yourself effectively a 3/4 goyf.  And you have 2 protection cards for said Goyf.  But after that you're leaning heavily on your top decks.
Against an unknown I would Keep

Run out fetch -> lotus.  Sac GGG drop the goyf.  If they force, fetch basic island and tap it for the hardcast daze.  If they fight it, then you KNOW they can't really beat goyf so defend it.  If they just let goyf resolve, then they are probably thinking they can beat it - and you have at least 1 daze for thier turn 1.  And and another daze for turn 2.  I'd daze almost anything on thier turn.  Land, Sol Ring?  - Daze.  If they lead with a mox without a land?  - Daze.  Land Ponder? - Daze. Land Thought Sieze?  -Daze.  

Probably the only thing I wouldn't do is Shop, Mox?  I'd wait, and hope thier next card is Lodestone ... so it can get dazed.

This hand has an early threat with a few dazes (going first) to prevent a blow out, as well as enough mana to cast anything you draw.

On the draw, those dazes aren't so hot.  So on the draw I would mull this hand.

2. Misty Rainforest, Flooded Strand, Null Rod, Black Lotus, Swords, Swords, Wasteland

Again, I'd probably keep, but this is the clostest to a mull of all 5 hands.  You have turn 1 Null Rod, followed up with more mana denial.  Which is good against anything blue.  If they are playing anything that doesn't care about rod (shop aggro, oath, aggro), you've got double swords, which should by you time to find treats.  You also have 2 more mana sources, so you have plenty to work with in terms of mana and casting your top decks.

What makes this hard is that you can't back up null rod.  So if they ~are~ playing combo or tezz, then you can't stop them from forcing your rod.  So actually if you think they are playing blue, and you think they have force in hand - this one goes back.  So while I'm thinking about this hand, I would be trying to get a read on my opponent's comfort with thier hand.  If they seem overly happy looking at thier hand, I might chicken out and mull.

3. Mox Emerald, Trygon Predator, Stifle, Wasteland, Tropical, Tundra, Misty Rainforest

Keep with certainty!  This hand has everything you need to be amazing.  Fetch, Mox go.  You're waiting on the stifle for thier fetch.  If they try and fetch you pounce.  Then drop trop, fetch basic and play trygon.  If they straight drop a non-basic then you waste.  

If they play fetch and pass, you need to play the waiting game a little.  You arn't going to tap out until that stifle is played.  But you won't be waiting more than 2 turns.  On your third turn (assuming you draw dead), you can play your 3rd land + the mox, and play Trygon.  Most likely if they are sitting on drain, they will fetch and you can drop the stifle bomb.

Actually, thinking abuot this again, I'd probably be sassy and lead with Trop, Mox go.

IF my opponent is playing shops I WANT them to spend thier first turn Wastelanding.  And I'll Stifle.  Even if they open with double mox sphere into the waste I can STILL stifle.  But you are going to be giving out quite a beating if you got turn 1 Trop, Mox go.  Thier turn 1, waste? nope! Turn 2, Trygon.  GG.

Reitterating again, that you have plenty of lands to cast anything in your deck.

4. Tarmogoyf, Polluted Delta, Noble Hierarch, Tundra, Mox Pearl, Null Rod, Time Walk

I'd keep it, and lead with Delta for Trop -> Hierarch, go.  Holding the mox in hand.  This means you kept 5 cards in hand, and your opponent is going to hopefully not go all in - fearing force, or daze.  If they do, then hey oh well.  You want to set up for having 4 mana on your 2nd turn, so you can get that null rod in play.  

Assuming they do "blue things" on thier first turn, you have all the tools you need to ensure Null Rod hits play.  But you need to try and read thier board.  If you think they have spell pierce at the ready, play your land, mox, Timewalk first.  Then drop Goyf.  (if they counter your timewalk, just drop Null Rod immediately).  If they don't keep U open, then instead play your land and cast Goyf first, hoping they Force.  Then play your pearl and timewalk.

Either way assuming timewalk goes off, you lead your next turn with Rod with 2 open for pierce.  Swing with goyf.  Also you now have 2 new cards which might open up more lines of play.  

Assuming they do "Shop things" you're still going to be ok. You opened the game with 2 mana on the board.  Even if they drop waste + sphere, you can still hardcast your mox (probably hold back the land) and play goyf next turn. If they straight drop the tangle, you can get to 4 perms on your 2nd turn.  If they have a "crazy" shop opener, you probably will lose.

What you can get from this is: if they are blue you have many lines of play, and if they are shops you have lots of lands and permenants.  So you should have no trouble keeping this.  However it doesn't have anything to stop a blow-out game.  But not every hand will ... that's why they are called blow outs.

5. Tropical, Tropical, Misty Rainforest, Daze, Force of Will, Tarmogoyf, Trygon Predator  

Keep  This is almost the poster child hand for fish.  You've got 1 hard counter + 1 soft counter for turn 1.  You've got Goyf on turn 2, and assuming you draw a blue card, you've got Trygon turn 3 (or if you don't draw blue, just get there with goyf).  You can lead with misty if they are shops they won't waste you, and you can counter Lodestone (although I wouldn't pitch trygon to counter lodestone I might daze him if they give me the chance, but I'd likely force pitching daze, and then cast Trygon for the win against shops).

Goyf + Trygon will is very bad for most decks on the market right now.  They will likely try to dig for an answer, or rush for a win, and in either case you have Force + Daze to stop them.




In short, my biggest fear with Noble Fish is drawing 1 land hands when I mull.  So that means that sometimes you have to take a risk and say "this average hand will beat most average hands my opponent could draw; so its worth it.... I really hope they didn't draw the nutz"  If you mull to 6 and see 1 mana, you're almost assured to be going to 5, or keeping a hand with much fewer options.  These hands are all multi-mana hands, many with fetches, so don't forget about the cards you're going to be drawing.