[Free Article] Feature Article – New Phyrexia in Vintage

[Marske]

In his debut article, Marius covers a format few people are talking about and gives you his review of how New Phyrexia will affect Vintage!

Link

Guess who's back TMD!

All feedback is welcome obviously.

[Mr. Type 4]

Not bad, Marius.  i thought the analysis of mental misstep was pretty good.

[Meddling Mike]

This card is definitely an upgrade over Street Wraith, but the it also has its own pitfalls and I’m not entirely sure that the fact that this adds to the storm count, can be replayed off Yawgmoth’s Will and pitches to Force of Will make this card way better then the aforementioned Wraith.

I think you oversimplified the comparison to Street Wraith here a bit. You never mention the additional benefit of seeing the opponents hand whatsoever. You point out the potential importance of 2 life, but neglect to mention that this card gives you the option of paying the one blue mana, Street Wraith does not. Keeping with the life points matter theme, Probe only hits for one off a confidant flip, Street Wraith is terrible to flip off a confidant. You neglect to mention the terrible anti-synergy with Oath of Druids for Street Wraith that is of no consequence to Probe. Street Wraith has the benefit of potentially being an expensive 3/4 with swampwalk and is a black creature for cards like unmask and Ichorid. It's a pretty complex comparison (currently writing an article on this particular matter)

[voltron00x]

Congrats, great to see you on CFB and always nice to see Vintage articles!

As far as the actual article, I liked it, but some random questions/thoughts:

I don't know if Jin-Gitaxias cuts it in Oath.  No evasion and high likelihood it just causes you to deck out.  It might work in a deck with a bunch of Oath targets, like Reanimator, but how it would work with 1x and 1x Blightsteel, I'm not so sure.  In combo versions, isn't Tidespout just better?  1x of each might be interesting, maybe?


I hadn't considered Dismember for Dredge, that's interesting, but if you're talking specifically about killing Jailers specifically in Dredge, why would I want that card over Darkblast or Firestorm?

I think Misstep is actually good for a certain set of situations, as I wrote about before.  If you're playing Oath, it is pretty nice, since it counters Duress/TS on you when on the draw, and counters Spell Pierce aggressively when resolving Oath, and protects Oath from Nature's Claim, and creatures from Chain of Vapor or Swords to Plowshares.  Against Dredge, it is super duper spicy if you're playing Leylines and are on the draw in game 3.  Turn 0 Leyline, turn one Claim / Chain of Vapor?  I'll just misstep that and untap.  It also does a real nice job protecting Jailer from the most common removal spells (Firestorm, Chain of Vapor, Darkblast).  And, countering the tutor is sometimes underrated, but countering a BS/Ponder/Preordain is often spicy.  Add to the list stuff you didn't list like Top, Goblin Welder, Dark Ritual, and Key.  I laid out a list of targets in my last article, actually.  Most decks (outside Shops and Dredge G1) have more targets than you realize.

There's also one very niche artifact that I think is worth discussing before BoM.

Anyway kudos on the CFB article and hope to see lots more in the future!

[Marske]

Not bad, Marius.  i thought the analysis of mental misstep was pretty good.

Thanks Paul

This card is definitely an upgrade over Street Wraith, but the it also has its own pitfalls and I’m not entirely sure that the fact that this adds to the storm count, can be replayed off Yawgmoth’s Will and pitches to Force of Will make this card way better then the aforementioned Wraith.

I think you oversimplified the comparison to Street Wraith here a bit. You never mention the additional benefit of seeing the opponents hand whatsoever. You point out the potential importance of 2 life, but neglect to mention that this card gives you the option of paying the one blue mana, Street Wraith does not. Keeping with the life points matter theme, Probe only hits for one off a confidant flip, Street Wraith is terrible to flip off a confidant. You neglect to mention the terrible anti-synergy with Oath of Druids for Street Wraith that is of no consequence to Probe. Street Wraith has the benefit of potentially being an expensive 3/4 with swampwalk and is a black creature for cards like unmask and Ichorid. It's a pretty complex comparison (currently writing an article on this particular matter)

Do you really think the effect "peek" gives you is so valuable? (Why doesn't Peek see play?)... looking at the opponents hand isn't all that valuable without the ability to grab the best card (Discard effects) I just feel that the overall effect the Probe gives you is not something most decks in Vintage would ever want. Even including all the upsides you just mentioned.

Congrats, great to see you on CFB and always nice to see Vintage articles!

As far as the actual article, I liked it, but some random questions/thoughts:

I don't know if Jin-Gitaxias cuts it in Oath.  No evasion and high likelihood it just causes you to deck out.  It might work in a deck with a bunch of Oath targets, like Reanimator, but how it would work with 1x and 1x Blightsteel, I'm not so sure.  In combo versions, isn't Tidespout just better?  1x of each might be interesting, maybe?

I hadn't considered Dismember for Dredge, that's interesting, but if you're talking specifically about killing Jailers specifically in Dredge, why would I want that card over Darkblast or Firestorm?

I think Misstep is actually good for a certain set of situations, as I wrote about before.  If you're playing Oath, it is pretty nice, since it counters Duress/TS on you when on the draw, and counters Spell Pierce aggressively when resolving Oath, and protects Oath from Nature's Claim, and creatures from Chain of Vapor or Swords to Plowshares.  Against Dredge, it is super duper spicy if you're playing Leylines and are on the draw in game 3.  Turn 0 Leyline, turn one Claim / Chain of Vapor?  I'll just misstep that and untap.  It also does a real nice job protecting Jailer from the most common removal spells (Firestorm, Chain of Vapor, Darkblast).  And, countering the tutor is sometimes underrated, but countering a BS/Ponder/Preordain is often spicy.  Add to the list stuff you didn't list like Top, Goblin Welder, Dark Ritual, and Key.  I laid out a list of targets in my last article, actually.  Most decks (outside Shops and Dredge G1) have more targets than you realize.

There's also one very niche artifact that I think is worth discussing before BoM.

Anyway kudos on the CFB article and hope to see lots more in the future!

Thanks for the kind words Matt.

Regarding Jin:
I don't think he's going to have that massive of an impact. That being said, he's not a bad card to Oath up or to Show And Tell. especially if you find a way to keep yourself from being decked before killing the opponent. The effect he offers is kinda devastating.

Regarding Dismember:
The fact that it's colorless and costs 3 (which means it dodges Chalice @1 which might as well be relevant) are both rather huge. Colorless means it's value goes up when you're say: running petrified fields from the board to battle Waste. If you open Bazaar + Field and they counter with Jailer you can kill it, as with Darkblast of Firestorm you can't. There are situations where either off these cards is going to be better then the others, but the fact that you can play this card using any sort of mana is kinda huge. Also, as you mentioned above when you talked about Misstep, Dismember dodges that pretty nicely as well

Regarding Misstep:
I can't see it playing that huge of a roll, I'd rather have FoW, Drain, Pierce before I'd start thinking about having Missteps. Maybe I'd even rather have Daze then Misstep. Point being, not a lot of cards are actually 1 mana that are also worth countering. Spell Pierce / Daze does the exact same things you described above while also being able to stop Spheres and effects that cost more then 1. I don't want to underplay the value of having a "hardcounter" to cards with CMC 1, but I just don't think it's going to be that big in Vintage.

[Mr. Type 4]

Do you really think the effect "peek" gives you is so valuable? (Why doesn't Peek see play?)...

I think the Peek part is huge.  Peek doesn't see play because the gap between free and one mana is the size of the Grand Canyon. 

[madmanmike25]

Peek doesn't see play because Glasses of Urza exists....  But seriously looking at your opponents hand, especially early game, is never a bad thing.  Another fact is that peek is just a random side effect, the real deal is that it's "free" draw.  No one would be talking about this card if it just let you see your opponents hand for free.

[Meddling Mike]

I think Paul and Mike already addressed it, but the added bonus of knowing your opponents hand is a HUGE advantage over Street Wraith. I would probably put it above any of the positives you listed in your article as the situations where you REALLY need to draw 1 extra card off Yawgmoth's Will for it to be good are rare as well as the situations where you fall one storm short of what's necessary for a win. I think the peek effect applies to much more than just the synergy with Cabal Therapy/Meddling Mage/Pithing Needle/etc. Wouldn't you like to  know if your opponent has the FoW or Chain of Vapor before you go all in on that turn 1 Tinker without FoW backup? Maybe your opponent is relying on that Brainstorm you normally would have let resolve to get his second land drop. Is this spell the true business spell or just the bait spell before the Yawgmoth's Will? Do I need to leave my island untapped to cast Spell Pierce to counter the Ancestral in his hand or can I take a chance and cast my ponder this turn? I could go on like this for days.

But yes, knowing your opponents hand even without discard is a very big deal.

[Marske]

Peek doesn't see play because Glasses of Urza exists....  But seriously looking at your opponents hand, especially early game, is never a bad thing.  Another fact is that peek is just a random side effect, the real deal is that it's "free" draw.  No one would be talking about this card if it just let you see your opponents hand for free.

So, let me get this straight. Pay 2 Life / U, look at target opponents hand, Draw a card is an effect worth having in Vintage at the moment? Against what type of deck do you really need this? The Control vs Control match? Control vs Combo? Maybe Combo might enjoy having a "free" draw effect making topdeck tutors better... but that's the only type of deck I can see this possibly seeing play. Not to mention what's going to happen if you decide to run 4 of these cards and face Workshop.... The more I think about it the less I actually like this card. I never ever wished I had "Street Wraith". If I really want to draw cards I'd play 4 Preordain before running 1 Probe, honestly.

I think Paul and Mike already addressed it, but the added bonus of knowing your opponents hand is a HUGE advantage over Street Wraith. I would probably put it above any of the positives you listed in your article as the situations where you REALLY need to draw 1 extra card off Yawgmoth's Will for it to be good are rare as well as the situations where you fall one storm short of what's necessary for a win. I think the peek effect applies to much more than just the synergy with Cabal Therapy/Meddling Mage/Pithing Needle/etc. Wouldn't you like to  know if your opponent has the FoW or Chain of Vapor before you go all in on that turn 1 Tinker without FoW backup? Maybe your opponent is relying on that Brainstorm you normally would have let resolve to get his second land drop. Is this spell the true business spell or just the bait spell before the Yawgmoth's Will? Do I need to leave my island untapped to cast Spell Pierce to counter the Ancestral in his hand or can I take a chance and cast my ponder this turn? I could go on like this for days.

But yes, knowing your opponents hand even without discard is a very big deal.

So basically you're saying that Peek isn't worth is but "free peek" is worth it? I find that very hard to believe, It's been a pretty long time ago when i actually found myself in the situations you described. I've had no trouble hitting Mage or needle, nor do I run Cabal Therapy in anything other then Dredge (which doesn't need probe) and then the targets are pretty easy. That's not saying that the effect isn't worth having, nor that certain people will love how safe this makes them feel. All I see is people running 4 essentially dead cards in their decks, which is fine by me.

[failtofind]

i really like probe.

[madmanmike25]

I'm not saying that the card is broken or an auto 4-of in every deck, but it's odd that you can't see the utility that this card obviously has.  Here's a longshot, most likey never-to-happen scenario;  MUD is on the play and has 1 Chalice and a Probe in hand.  Normally against the unknown, a t1 CotV@0 is pretty standard, but here you have an opportunity to see that your opponent has Oath in hand.  For free.  And it replaces itself.  CotV@2 is now a lot more appealing isn't it?  I'm not advocating this card in MUD btw, this is just to give you an example that the "peek" effect is not useless by any means.

I guess the question is "What deck do you not care about having interaction with your opponent?".  Probably the deck a t1 Probe is most useless against is Dredge, because I doubt you can do much anyways.

But just to be clear again, my position is that I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss this card.  The jury is still out I suppose, if this was instant there would probably be no doubt.  I don't play with Street Wraith, but Wraith also is not blue which matters to some people i hear.

EDIT:  I forgot to mention that typically at tournaments, any time I get duressed the opponent 90% of the time writes down the cards in my hand.  Someone should tell them that it's not that important I guess.

[Marske]

I'm not saying that the card is broken or an auto 4-of in every deck, but it's odd that you can't see the utility that this card obviously has.  Here's a longshot, most likey never-to-happen scenario;  MUD is on the play and has 1 Chalice and a Probe in hand.  Normally against the unknown, a t1 CotV@0 is pretty standard, but here you have an opportunity to see that your opponent has Oath in hand.  For free.  And it replaces itself.  CotV@2 is now a lot more appealing isn't it?  I'm not advocating this card in MUD btw, this is just to give you an example that the "peek" effect is not useless by any means.

So I topdeck Darksteel Relic, making my Mox Opal have Metal Craft which means I can now cast Ancestral off it which gives me the +3 Storm and way to draw tendrils of agony and still have enough mana left to play it.....Yeah, there are scenerio's where every card (save maybe boostertutor) has some use... hell some people even lose to Raging Goblin in Vintage (Hello there Ray "IamFishman" Just kiddin)

I guess the question is "What deck do you not care about having interaction with your opponent?".  Probably the deck a t1 Probe is most useless against is Dredge, because I doubt you can do much anyways.

Here's the thing though, unlike Duress / Seize  & family, you're not actually interacting. All you do is looking at their hand for basically 2 life. People are forgetting there are actuall costs to playing this card and that's all I'm saying.

EDIT:  I forgot to mention that typically at tournaments, any time I get duressed the opponent 90% of the time writes down the cards in my hand.  Someone should tell them that it's not that important I guess.

I don't think it's important ! And I've said this to numerous people that I saw doing this, maybe writing down only the essentiall cards is worth it, but writing down the fact that you have 2 islands a Underground sea and a Sensei's top left seems rather idiotic to me.

[Meddling Mike]

So I topdeck Darksteel Relic, making my Mox Opal have Metal Craft which means I can now cast Ancestral off it which gives me the +3 Storm and way to draw tendrils of agony and still have enough mana left to play it.....Yeah, there are scenerio's where every card (save maybe boostertutor) has some use... hell some people even lose to Raging Goblin in Vintage

The two situations aren't even remotely close and you know it. There are hundreds, possibly thousands, of situations where knowing your opponents hand provides a significant advantage.

People are forgetting there are actual costs to playing this card and that's all I'm saying.

Sure, there's a cost involved, but Vintage is possibly the best format to be paying small increments of life for cards. The majority of decks in Vintage don't rely on smaller creatures/other progressive damage dealing strategies to kill their opponents. Sure, there are some examples where two life turns out to matter, but most of the time when Vintage decks get into a position to win it doesn't matter if you're at 20 or 16.

I don't think it's important ! And I've said this to numerous people that I saw doing this, maybe writing down only the essentiall cards is worth it, but writing down the fact that you have 2 islands a Underground sea and a Sensei's top left seems rather idiotic to me.

Idiotic? Really? I can't believe how low you value information about your opponents hand.

So, let me get this straight. Pay 2 Life / U, look at target opponents hand, Draw a card is an effect worth having in Vintage at the moment? Against what type of deck do you really need this? The Control vs Control match? Control vs Combo? Maybe Combo might enjoy having a "free" draw effect making topdeck tutors better... but that's the only type of deck I can see this possibly seeing play. Not to mention what's going to happen if you decide to run 4 of these cards and face Workshop.... The more I think about it the less I actually like this card. I never ever wished I had "Street Wraith". If I really want to draw cards I'd play 4 Preordain before running 1 Probe, honestly.

So what matchup would you say you have preordain in there for? There are plenty of cards in vintage decks that don't address any specific matchups. I'd say you could say that for just about ANY draw spell. Of course you never wish you had Street Wraith, but you probably wished for the top card of your library before, which is what Street Wraith gets you. Whatever is in your deck that you ARE wishing for Street Wraith makes it more likely that you'll actually get it. You probably never wished for a preordain either, but you knew it could help you find what you were looking for. I don't think these are reasonable ways to evaluate the strength of a card.

So basically you're saying that Peek isn't worth is but "free peek" is worth it? I find that very hard to believe, It's been a pretty long time ago when i actually found myself in the situations you described. I've had no trouble hitting Mage or needle, nor do I run Cabal Therapy in anything other then Dredge (which doesn't need probe) and then the targets are pretty easy. That's not saying that the effect isn't worth having, nor that certain people will love how safe this makes them feel. All I see is people running 4 essentially dead cards in their decks, which is fine by me.

1) Do you actually understand what a dead card is because I think Gataxian Probe is almost never a dead card. A dead card is a Serum Powder or a Leyline of the Void that isn't in the opening hand of Dredge. A dead card is a land when you already have a ton of mana and nothing to use it on. A dead card is something you can't cast. A dead card is something that has no relevance and won't have any relevance in the foreseeable future. Gataxian Probe reliably draws you a card and shows you an opponents hand for either of two easily attainable costs.

2) I'm not saying a "free peek" is worth it, I'm saying that a peek that occurs at sorcery speed at the optional cost of -2 life is probably going to be worth it in some Vintage decks.

3) So wait, it's been a long time since you've had to make a play that you would have made differently if you had known your opponents hand? What kind of deck are you playing? When was the last time you lost a counter war, because I think most people wouldn't start a counter war they knew they were going to lose. You've never had to decide to either take a shot on a business spell or wait until you had the counter to protect it? You can't remember the last time you would have played more aggressively if you knew they had the win in hand? I find that pretty hard to believe that you can't remember the last time it would have been nice to know what's in your opponents hand.

[failtofind]

i think this cards is kinda nuts, its blue, it gets me to gushes and bombs faster, it adds storm and it helps me weave through counterspells, rebs etc

[Joblin Velder]

The best part of this thread is watching a mod about to blow up on one of his teammates.

This adds nothing to the discussion - verbal warning for spam.
-Godder

[BruiZar]

Gitaxian Probe says: +2 storm, +2 cards, -4 life in your Yawgmoth´s will turn. It makes going off with Tendrils a lot easier. 2 probes and 8 life further, you are 4 storm and 4 cards richer and you still have all your mana sources untapped..

[Marske]

So I topdeck Darksteel Relic, making my Mox Opal have Metal Craft which means I can now cast Ancestral off it which gives me the +3 Storm and way to draw tendrils of agony and still have enough mana left to play it.....Yeah, there are scenerio's where every card (save maybe boostertutor) has some use... hell some people even lose to Raging Goblin in Vintage

The two situations aren't even remotely close and you know it. There are hundreds, possibly thousands, of situations where knowing your opponents hand provides a significant advantage.

I know, I gave an extreme example. I just don't value the information in my opponents hand as much. You of all people should know that there are numerous other ways to already knowing if the opponent has it or not. I don't need 4 cards that only replace themselves in my deck to tell me I can combo off safely by showing me the opponents hand.

People are forgetting there are actual costs to playing this card and that's all I'm saying.

Sure, there's a cost involved, but Vintage is possibly the best format to be paying small increments of life for cards. The majority of decks in Vintage don't rely on smaller creatures/other progressive damage dealing strategies to kill their opponents. Sure, there are some examples where two life turns out to matter, but most of the time when Vintage decks get into a position to win it doesn't matter if you're at 20 or 16.

The actual cost I was referring to wasn't the 2 life, that's indeed pretty irrelevant. The cost you are paying is having 4 cards in your deck named Gitaxian Probe. When's the last time you found 4 empty spots in a decklist? You're very likely swapping out cards that have a more drastic effect (I'd say even Preordain has a more drastic effect, while not free it gives you potential access to 3 cards instead of just 1 and you get to fix 1-2 turns of drawsteps and plan ahead). I'm just saying that I'd rather be playing cards that make my gameplan go further (Preordain, Sensei's top etc) then cards that show me a look at the opponents hand. If I want to know the coast is clear? Play Duress (or one of it's kind). I understand the "free" draw a card seems very exciting, but actually it's not.

I don't think it's important ! And I've said this to numerous people that I saw doing this, maybe writing down only the essentiall cards is worth it, but writing down the fact that you have 2 islands a Underground sea and a Sensei's top left seems rather idiotic to me.

Idiotic? Really? I can't believe how low you value information about your opponents hand.

I think you misread... Writing down ALL of the opponents hand is something I find useless unless he/she's holding all bombs (highly unlikely), I don't need to write down the fact that you are holding 2 lands and a top. the lands I mentally note as "blanks" and the top I can easily remember (i'm not suffering from Alzheimers yet). I don't ever write that stuff down as I'm perfectly able to remember the 1-2 cards that actually matter to my gameplan (like for instance, knowing he's holding FoW + Probe for example). Is there value in knowing the opponent has played the 2 lands he was holding? Probably, but the mental energy spend and concentration break tracking back to the notepad to check if the opponent played something you noted down everytime time is just not worth it to me. There's even no REAL indication if you're notes are valid at all. Imagine Probing the opponent, seeing Land, Land, FoW, Drain. They draw, play Brainstorm (not including the fact that they could have Sensei's top in play which basically extends their hand to +top-3-cards-of-their-deck).... that's the point where you can safely throw your notes out the window.

So, let me get this straight. Pay 2 Life / U, look at target opponents hand, Draw a card is an effect worth having in Vintage at the moment? Against what type of deck do you really need this? The Control vs Control match? Control vs Combo? Maybe Combo might enjoy having a "free" draw effect making topdeck tutors better... but that's the only type of deck I can see this possibly seeing play. Not to mention what's going to happen if you decide to run 4 of these cards and face Workshop.... The more I think about it the less I actually like this card. I never ever wished I had "Street Wraith". If I really want to draw cards I'd play 4 Preordain before running 1 Probe, honestly.

So what matchup would you say you have preordain in there for? There are plenty of cards in vintage decks that don't address any specific matchups. I'd say you could say that for just about ANY draw spell. Of course you never wish you had Street Wraith, but you probably wished for the top card of your library before, which is what Street Wraith gets you. Whatever is in your deck that you ARE wishing for Street Wraith makes it more likely that you'll actually get it. You probably never wished for a preordain either, but you knew it could help you find what you were looking for. I don't think these are reasonable ways to evaluate the strength of a card.

The effect preordain gives you, (scry 2, draw a card) is way more powerfull then the information you receive from seeing the opponents hand (see the example I just gave regarding how fast this information is outdated) Preordain lets you "fix" your upcoming draws and it replaces itself. To be honest, playing probe just to have a "free" draw effect seems even more horrible. I'd rather have Sensei's top as it stay's usefull throughout the entire game, isn't a really awfull topdeck. Fact that it isn't blue is a strike against it, but it's better at being played when say, Lodestone Golem is in play, which at this point is highly likely.

1) Do you actually understand what a dead card is because I think Gataxian Probe is almost never a dead card. A dead card is a Serum Powder or a Leyline of the Void that isn't in the opening hand of Dredge. A dead card is a land when you already have a ton of mana and nothing to use it on. A dead card is something you can't cast. A dead card is something that has no relevance and won't have any relevance in the foreseeable future. Gataxian Probe reliably draws you a card and shows you an opponents hand for either of two easily attainable costs.

I think you are overvaluing the effect of seeing an opponents hand. Why aren't effects like Duress (Barring combo decks) not seeing more play if it's so powerfull? Why isn't peek seening massive play when the effect is so powerful? I mean a single blue isn't that hard of a cost right (easily attainable as you said)... well, I think it has to do with the fact that those cards just don't have enough power to actually be usefull. These cards (Yes, probe as well) are "dead" in a sense that I'd almost always would want to draw "something" else instead. Try playing every possible draw effect you can in a deck and pitting it up against a deck featuring all Burn, you'll notice you'll lose. Even if you include counters. Because you're drawing into cards that draw you more cards and they are drawing into spells that effect the boardstate or the state of the game. Probe doesn't effect anything, the information you gain is valuable no doubt, but it doesn't change the fact that he's still holding FoW, you can't "go off" any more then you could before probe. But you did get a free look at the opponents hand...

2) I'm not saying a "free peek" is worth it, I'm saying that a peek that occurs at sorcery speed at the optional cost of -2 life is probably going to be worth it in some Vintage decks.

I agree with this one, I mean there are decks that are going to like having this effect. I just don't think they are competitive enough to consider. Don't forget that we're still in a meta mostly dominated by Shop decks. Having "free peek" in your deck isn't going to help you in anyway against those decks. Or are we just ignoring those decks? (not aimed at you personally but at everybody getting excited about probe)

3) So wait, it's been a long time since you've had to make a play that you would have made differently if you had known your opponents hand? What kind of deck are you playing? When was the last time you lost a counter war, because I think most people wouldn't start a counter war they knew they were going to lose. You've never had to decide to either take a shot on a business spell or wait until you had the counter to protect it? You can't remember the last time you would have played more aggressively if you knew they had the win in hand? I find that pretty hard to believe that you can't remember the last time it would have been nice to know what's in your opponents hand.

Espresso Stax and Dredge Although I've been known to play a control deck from time to time I'm much more apt at playing a deck that forces the opponent to deal with bomb after bomb. Maybe this is because I've played Storm combo for so long that I just assume some of my spells will get countered with the knowledge that I'm just a single topdeck away from drawing yet another business spell which they need to counter or just lose.

I understand what you're saying though, although, again, I'd rather have a "Duress" effect (eventhough those aren't blue or free) because that actually lets you play more agressive (take the card that's bothering you the most) and also gives you the same information probe does. What does probeing somebody, seeing they have a FoW (and you don't) and not playing your bomb give you? You're sitting back 1-X (where X is the number of draw steps / spells you need to draw a counter and / or blue card) while they are also drawing cards (maybe more if they play draw spells), so when you draw your counter what's telling you they're not holding 2 counters at that point? Or maybe they are using their counter to force one of their game winning bombs into play. This situation, to me, seems horrible, probe seems only really awesome when you "peek" and see the coast is clear and are able to go for it. In essence, I value cards that present me with a shot at coming back from being behind more then cards that are awesome when I'm already winning, but that's just me.

i think this cards is kinda nuts, its blue, it gets me to gushes and bombs faster, it adds storm and it helps me weave through counterspells, rebs etc

Jesse, we both know this card isn't what a dedicated combo deck needs... that being said, it does all the things you say it does, but isn't preordain just better?

Gitaxian Probe says: +2 storm, +2 cards, -4 life in your Yawgmoth´s will turn. It makes going off with Tendrils a lot easier. 2 probes and 8 life further, you are 4 storm and 4 cards richer and you still have all your mana sources untapped..

I've never ever had issues with going off within a YawgWill turn...Maybe it's just me but, close to every single Will I've cast since like 2007 when I got back into Vintage has won me the game with some rare exceptions where the opponent messed with it (Extirpate). I don't think this effect is THAT powerfull, for just UU you have Repeal that does the same thing and offers you value in other places. I know the hearts of Vintage players start pounding when the words "free" and "draw" are mentioned in the same sentence, but.... this card's isn't as good as people think it is.

[Meddling Mike]

I know, I gave an extreme example. I just don't value the information in my opponents hand as much. You of all people should know that there are numerous other ways to already knowing if the opponent has it or not. I don't need 4 cards that only replace themselves in my deck to tell me I can combo off safely by showing me the opponents hand.

There are 3 ways of potentially determining what an opponent has in hand.
1) Spell/Effects that cause them to reveal their hand or cards in their hand.
2) Educated guesses derived from the spells an opponent plays and how they choose to play them.
3) Various tells in an opponent's demeanor or body language.

The first either costs mana, isn't blue, doesn't draw you a card or all 3. The second and third are not specific and unreliable at best. Good players know how to either mask these indicators or imitate false indicators.

The actual cost I was referring to wasn't the 2 life, that's indeed pretty irrelevant. The cost you are paying is having 4 cards in your deck named Gitaxian Probe. When's the last time you found 4 empty spots in a decklist? You're very likely swapping out cards that have a more drastic effect (I'd say even Preordain has a more drastic effect, while not free it gives you potential access to 3 cards instead of just 1 and you get to fix 1-2 turns of drawsteps and plan ahead). I'm just saying that I'd rather be playing cards that make my gameplan go further (Preordain, Sensei's top etc) then cards that show me a look at the opponents hand. If I want to know the coast is clear? Play Duress (or one of it's kind). I understand the "free" draw a card seems very exciting, but actually it's not.

There are always cards that are weaker than other cards in the deck. Preordain is a prime example as you would probably cut it immediately if they unrestricted Brainstorm because Brainstorm>Preordain. I certainly wouldn't debate that once cast the effect of Preordain is greater than that of Gitaxian Probe. If we're in agreement that the two life paid for Gitaxian Probe is of little consequence in many archetypes and matchups then the point of contention seems to be whether the -2 life optional casting cost makes it better than Preordain. I am in agreement with Paul's earlier post that the difference between a spell that costs no mana and a spell that costs 1 mana is extremely significant and gives Gitaxian Probe the edge despite the lesser effect.

I think you misread... Writing down ALL of the opponents hand is something I find useless unless he/she's holding all bombs (highly unlikely), I don't need to write down the fact that you are holding 2 lands and a top. the lands I mentally note as "blanks" and the top I can easily remember (i'm not suffering from Alzheimers yet). I don't ever write that stuff down as I'm perfectly able to remember the 1-2 cards that actually matter to my gameplan (like for instance, knowing he's holding FoW + Probe for example). Is there value in knowing the opponent has played the 2 lands he was holding? Probably, but the mental energy spend and concentration break tracking back to the notepad to check if the opponent played something you noted down everytime time is just not worth it to me. There's even no REAL indication if you're notes are valid at all. Imagine Probing the opponent, seeing Land, Land, FoW, Drain. They draw, play Brainstorm (not including the fact that they could have Sensei's top in play which basically extends their hand to +top-3-cards-of-their-deck).... that's the point where you can safely throw your notes out the window.

I didn't misread. I think that every piece of information about an opponents hand is relevant to maximizing my chances of winning. If the stakes were high enough I might even write down the artist/expansion of the cards if they had seen multiple printings. This is the functional reason why many experienced players make sure to play with identical copies of cards where possible in order to minimize the possibility of accidentally revealing information about one's hand. If my opponent shows a John Avon Invasion Island and a Dan Frazier Onslaught Swamp and a Sensei's Divining Top and then on his turn draws and plays a Terese Nielsen Invasion Island we can now be certain of what they drew rather than a business spell/counter/relevant spell. If all I can remember is two lands and a top he could play an Underground Sea and I would have gained absolutely no information as a result. If I only remember "2xBlank and a Top" that increases the number of cards he could play without giving me any information even more. I don't buy the argument that it's just too mentally taxing to bother keeping track of an opponent's hand. You write the names down next to their life totals and cross them off after they're played. You make it sound like there's some complex filing system. I view this as less mentally taxing as it makes future plays easier to decide rather than trying to guess what's in my opponent's hand based on less reliable information. Brainstorm and a shuffle effect can invalidate information about their hand, but Brainstorm is a restricted card and does not show up in all archetypes and if they don't have a shuffle effect you can still be sure of some number of cards they have in hand two drawn cards later. It's better to know that an opponent has 4 non-relevant spells and 2 unknowns rather than just 6 unknowns when making decisions. Even in the example that you provided we can make reasonable assumptions about what he may have put back/shuffled away from the context of the game. If he has a ton of mana in that situation and after the Brainstorm he plays a shuffle effect we can reasonably assume that he probably shuffled away as many mana sources as possible and probably still has the Mana Drain and the Force of Will. I don't see how Sensei's Divining Top fits into the equation, it gives access to additional cards, but doesn't put anything back. The information you gained from the Probe should still be valid despite the possibility of grabbing 1 of 3 cards on top of their library.

The effect preordain gives you, (scry 2, draw a card) is way more powerfull then the information you receive from seeing the opponents hand (see the example I just gave regarding how fast this information is outdated) Preordain lets you "fix" your upcoming draws and it replaces itself. To be honest, playing probe just to have a "free" draw effect seems even more horrible. I'd rather have Sensei's top as it stay's usefull throughout the entire game, isn't a really awfull topdeck. Fact that it isn't blue is a strike against it, but it's better at being played when say, Lodestone Golem is in play, which at this point is highly likely.

As I said earlier, I'm not debating about whether or not Preordain has a more powerful effect when cast, but Preordain costs mana and that's a big difference. Although I would say the effect is more powerful, I wouldn't say WAY more powerful. Both cards say draw a card at the bottom, so the net difference in the effect is Scry 2 v. Look at target player's hand. I think that's not a blowout and when you consider the Phyrexian casting cost I give Gitaxian Probe the advantage. The comparison between Sensei's Divining Top doesn't really seem that relevant, they probably shouldn't be competing for deck space and the choice between them will probably depend on a number of outside factors such as the rest of the deck and the metagame it's being played in. Are there cards that you can abuse with Top like Dark Confidant/Counterbalance/Welder/Repeal/Voltaic Key/etc.? Does the deck have Null Rod/Force of Will/Cabal Therapy? How many tops are already in the deck as additional tops are often redundant? Tinker? Academy? Does my deck have a realistic chance of winning on turn 1 if they don't have a counter up? There's just too much stuff to consider with not enough information to say that Top is better than Probe.

I think you are overvaluing the effect of seeing an opponents hand. Why aren't effects like Duress (Barring combo decks) not seeing more play if it's so powerfull? Why isn't peek seening massive play when the effect is so powerful? I mean a single blue isn't that hard of a cost right (easily attainable as you said)... well, I think it has to do with the fact that those cards just don't have enough power to actually be usefull. These cards (Yes, probe as well) are "dead" in a sense that I'd almost always would want to draw "something" else instead. Try playing every possible draw effect you can in a deck and pitting it up against a deck featuring all Burn, you'll notice you'll lose. Even if you include counters. Because you're drawing into cards that draw you more cards and they are drawing into spells that effect the boardstate or the state of the game. Probe doesn't effect anything, the information you gain is valuable no doubt, but it doesn't change the fact that he's still holding FoW, you can't "go off" any more then you could before probe. But you did get a free look at the opponents hand...

I think you see Duress/Thoughtseize/Cabal Therapy or a similar effect in many decks that have the mana base to support it. These effects may have worked their way to the sideboard more since the printing of Worldwake brought it's worst matchup to prominence as the information about a Workshop player's hand is not quite as useful and the deck relies on consistency more than individual powerful cards. Those cards are also not blue and they also cost mana and they also don't draw you a card. You really can't put Gitaxian Probe on the same level as peek, it always costs mana and therefore there is no comparison.

I agree with this one, I mean there are decks that are going to like having this effect. I just don't think they are competitive enough to consider. Don't forget that we're still in a meta mostly dominated by Shop decks. Having "free peek" in your deck isn't going to help you in anyway against those decks. Or are we just ignoring those decks? (not aimed at you personally but at everybody getting excited about probe)

Sphere effects make many spells worse than they would normally be, that's why workshop players play them, I don't think it's a good reason not to play a card like Gitaxian Probe. To begin with, I don't think that the information gained from Probe about shops is irrelevant. Certainly not as potent as in other matchups, but certainly not irrelevant. If you're playing combo and have a somewhat risky play that might be safer the following turn and you see that your opponent is playing shops and therefore cannot counter what you do this turn, but will be dropping multiple sphere effects/chalices/etc on his turn that suddenly makes it an easy decision to go with the riskier play to try and win now. There are also some more subtle examples. My hand would really prefer I fetch an Underground Sea but I'm in bad shape if he has a wasteland/strip mine, the cards seen from Gitaxian Probe can help you make the right decision. I'm going to tinker for Blightsteel Colossus, does he have Sculpting Steel/Phyrexian Metamorph? I shouldn't counter that Crucible of Worlds, he's got another one in his hand that he can play. Again, the list goes on and on. The other point of contention I have with this is that I don't think this card is worse than a card like Preordain in this matchup. If my opponent leads off with a Sphere of Resistance I can still cast my Gitaxian Probe off an Island, I would not be able to cast a Preordain in the same situation. Could you imagine how good Hurkyl's Recall would be if it could be cast for one mana cheaper and -2 life? That's always what blue players say when they lose to MUD "I was just one mana away!"

Espresso Stax and Dredge Although I've been known to play a control deck from time to time I'm much more apt at playing a deck that forces the opponent to deal with bomb after bomb. Maybe this is because I've played Storm combo for so long that I just assume some of my spells will get countered with the knowledge that I'm just a single topdeck away from drawing yet another business spell which they need to counter or just lose.

This card probably has no home in Espresso Stax, but I don't believe that knowledge of an opponent's hand is useless in that deck either. If you knew their hand was full of one drops and no moxes would you still play Chalice of the Void at zero? Should I waste their land or cast a sphere effect? What do I name with my Phyrexian Revoker? Will I get Hurkyl's on my end step if I don't drop another Sphere or is it better to play my Smokestack instead? I don't know how you can claim that Dredge doesn't care what an opponent has in hand. You wouldn't want to know if your opponent has a counter before you cast Dread Return? You wouldn't want to know what your opponent has in hand before you name on your first Cabal Therapy? If I haven't had the opportunity to scout my opponent and I'm on the play I may not know what the matchup is and have to name completely blind on my first Cabal Therapy. I usually guess Force of Will against blue decks on the first one, but that only hits about 40% of the time. What if you knew they had Ancestral or Tinker? If they don't have a broken card OR Force of Will then name something they DO have and slow down their game plan.

I understand what you're saying though, although, again, I'd rather have a "Duress" effect (eventhough those aren't blue or free) because that actually lets you play more agressive (take the card that's bothering you the most) and also gives you the same information probe does. What does probeing somebody, seeing they have a FoW (and you don't) and not playing your bomb give you? You're sitting back 1-X (where X is the number of draw steps / spells you need to draw a counter and / or blue card) while they are also drawing cards (maybe more if they play draw spells), so when you draw your counter what's telling you they're not holding 2 counters at that point? Or maybe they are using their counter to force one of their game winning bombs into play. This situation, to me, seems horrible, probe seems only really awesome when you "peek" and see the coast is clear and are able to go for it. In essence, I value cards that present me with a shot at coming back from being behind more then cards that are awesome when I'm already winning, but that's just me.

As I said above, not only is Duress not blue OR free it also doesn't draw you a card. In regards to the latter portion of this, running your business into counters you know your opponent has and then hoping to draw more business seems bad. If your opponent has Mana Drain and Gifts Ungiven in hand would you play your Smokestack into it just to get the drain out of his hand? If you see your opponent has Spell Pierce maybe you could wait until you have 2 mana? Even in the case of Force of Will, it will most of the time be better to wait for a second bomb or a counter to show up to protect the first bomb instead of just running it out there. At least wait until you have a bait spell you can throw out. Luckily, Gitaxian Probe is here to help you cycle through your deck and get to those counters/bombs/bait faster.

Jesse, we both know this card isn't what a dedicated combo deck needs... that being said, it does all the things you say it does, but isn't preordain just better?

No, I don't think Preordain is better for reasons stated above.

I've never ever had issues with going off within a YawgWill turn...Maybe it's just me but, close to every single Will I've cast since like 2007 when I got back into Vintage has won me the game with some rare exceptions where the opponent messed with it (Extirpate). I don't think this effect is THAT powerfull, for just UU you have Repeal that does the same thing and offers you value in other places.

Yawgmoth's Will usually doesn't need an extra drawn card or two to win games, but I can remember times being one mana, one storm or one draw spell short of what I needed to win, usually on an early Yawgmoth's Will where you have Vampiric/Mystical for the win but no Brainstorm/Ponder/Ancestral to draw it. Getting back to the original Street Wraith comparison an advantage is still an advantage.

[Mr. Type 4]

I don't know how you can claim that Dredge doesn't care what an opponent has in hand. You wouldn't want to know if your opponent has a counter before you cast Dread Return? You wouldn't want to know what your opponent has in hand before you name on your first Cabal Therapy? I usually guess Force of Will against blue decks on the first one, but what if you knew they had Ancestral or Tinker? If they don't have a broken card OR Force of Will then name something they DO have and slow down their gameplan.

Not to mention the value of getting a free Dredge.  Street Wraith is almost good enough and doesn't turn my Therapies into heat-seeking missiles.

And I totally agree it's a good idea to write down every card my opponenent has in hand everytime. 

[Mantis]

The mind works like a computer, you have limited CPU. Writing down the cards in your opponenten hand limits the number of tasks you need to focus on. This helps you perform all the other tasks better. It has nothing to do with Alzheimer, a better analogy would be to compare it to texting while driving. Both tasks are easy on their own but simultaniously its bloody hard.

[TheWhiteDragon]

Some people always have extra mana (even non-U mana) floating around in multiples...like UU...even on turn 1,  Those same people also have a photographic memory and could remember all 60 cards after playing an extirpate.  They can typically discern a players hand of 7 just by how they hold their cards even.  Additionally, those people just fire-off into counter walls and always know they will resolve it, or their next bomb is the next topdeck, making knowledge of counters irrelevant.  Just some people's play style I guess.