(Article) Evolution of the online metagame

[youhavenogame]

I wrote something about the metagame development on Magic Online since the release of VMA. Enjoy

http://www.mtgoacademy.com/the-vintage-metagame-shops-delver-and-oath/

(Quick note: I finished the article a few days before the Eternal Weekend but waited for the results to conclude on how it could impact Magic Online. I wish it could have been online last week already, but I first had to write back and forth with the editor. Now it's done though, and it will definitely not be my last article on (online) Vintage.)

[Will]

Thank you for writing this. I don't agree with everything that you said, but it was interesting to hear your opinion on the state of the metagame.

Out of curiosity, what is your "pet deck" or deck that you naturally gravitate to most often? I have a feeling that it's something which is not well positioned in the current metagame which has influenced your opinion on the metagame dramatically. The way to get people to stop playing Delver and Shops are to play decks which are strong against them. Not the easiest thing to do, but as you alluded to, Oath is a good starting point.

Paper Vintage can feel like the Wild West sometimes, but the results in the Northeast have mirrored what you described since Khans was released. I think in some areas where the local scene is 10-15 guys battling out every week some people are locked into their "pet deck" and will not change at all regardless of what happens. The Northeast thankfully has developed a much bigger scene with large events taking place almost every weekend. Thus, the metagame evolves and most of the players switch their decks around somewhat even if it's within one pillar.

I'm confused by you mentioning how Workshop decks "the deck’s land count is low" when I've never seen a Workshop deck running less than 18 lands since Lodestone Golem came out. Some variants play as many as 23 lands!

Overall, I liked the article and found your commentary on the metagame very interesting.

[John Cox]

Great article. Always good to have more vintage reading.

[JarofFortune]

It's always good to have articles showing the progression of the metagame, but it makes me sad to see another article that supports the ban hype that has swept Magic. There will always be a few decks that are better than others. Neither Delver nor shops have proved themselves to be oppressive, so asking for restrictions because they are good decks and see play is ridiculous. If either of those decks is dominating the format in January, we may need a restriction, but simple being a widely played deck does not mean that the deck is "oppressive".

[hashswag]

Cruise Delver doesn't even have the best draw engine in Vintage. It's just the most efficient one for a fish deck. To beat it you can either:

a) Go over it by doing something broken (Oath, strong Shops openers, Storm, Dredge, etc), or

b) Have a way to x-for-1 their threats AND outdraw them, or

c) Have a way to x-for-1 their threats AND RiP them.

[youhavenogame]

Out of curiosity, what is your "pet deck" or deck that you naturally gravitate to most often? I have a feeling that it's something which is not well positioned in the current metagame which has influenced your opinion on the metagame dramatically.

You are definitely on the right track, my pet deck (BUG Fish) getting worse had a strong influence on my view, especially about Treasure Cruise. I will be honest though, I was just lazy and played a list that was not well prepared. Right now I'm working extensively on my deck so I can get it back as a contender. Nevertheless, leaving my pet deck aside, I still think that Cruise warps the metagame. If it would go into more decks I wouldn't complain, but once you put Cruise on your decklist there is no reason not to run Pyromancer as well. And from there on your route is essentially predetermined. Yeah, recently there has been a rise of combo oriented decks without Delver, but it still restricts you to only two ways to work. I'm still hoping that other archetypes can adapt as well, but Pyromancer is a pretty strong argument to go the predetermined route.  

I'm confused by you mentioning how Workshop decks "the deck’s land count is low" when I've never seen a Workshop deck running less than 18 lands since Lodestone Golem came out. Some variants play as many as 23 lands!

Personally I feel like Shops is often just slowly deploying if they have to use Ancient Tomb and Wasteland as their mana sources, especially as the cost of their spells raises with each sphere. Thanks to all the artifact mana available it is not that deck is super dependant on it's namesake, but every single mana counts and a well timed Wasteland can change the game dramatically. Considering that most spells are rather expensive, lands that produce only one mana are hardly "lands" without a Shop or artifact mana in play.

... but it makes me sad to see another article that supports the ban hype that has swept Magic. There will always be a few decks that are better than others. Neither Delver nor shops have proved themselves to be oppressive, so asking for restrictions because they are good decks and see play is ridiculous. If either of those decks is dominating the format in January, we may need a restriction, but simple being a widely played deck does not mean that the deck is "oppressive".

It's not about a deck being better than another one but rather a lot of decks not being able to keep up. Having a bad matchup is one thing, being unable to win because one deck got a card added that only itself can use + a high probability to draw that card as often as possible is another. Yeah, especially in the context of my previous response it may sound like this statement could be about my pet deck, but it's true for a bunch of decks. Lately even some Shop players complained to me about constantly getting outdrawn by Treasure Cruise. I conceded that the addition of Cruise to delver was quite obvious, while the meta responding to it by adding different cards is a slower process.

[JarofFortune]

It's not about a deck being better than another one but rather a lot of decks not being able to keep up. Having a bad matchup is one thing, being unable to win because one deck got a card added that only itself can use + a high probability to draw that card as often as possible is another.

What decks are actually unable to win against Delver, rather than having a bad matchup? As for Treasure cruise being printed, Delver had the same good matchups before cruise as it did now. No matchup changed from even to good because of Cruise. Prepared Delver players were vastly outperforming other archetypes in at least one major event this summer(The one with the most data on the metagame recorded), in relation to the amount of delver decks played. People are only noticing that Delver has good matchups all around because it is now seeing a lot more play than it used to. Restricting Treasure Cruise would not make delver much worse. If you want to really take the deck down a notch, restrict Preordain. If you want to gut it, after restricting preordain restrict Gush, which could certainly be slightly better than Cruise. That's if Delver becomes oppressive, which it certainly is not at the moment.

Yeah, especially in the context of my previous response it may sound like this statement could be about my pet deck, but it's true for a bunch of decks. Lately even some Shop players complained to me about constantly getting outdrawn by Treasure Cruise..

Shop decks will be outdrawn no matter what if they allow the player to cast spells, because they don't run card draw of their own. Cruise is not a critical card for winning against shops with Delver.

I conceded that the addition of Cruise to delver was quite obvious, while the meta responding to it by adding different cards is a slower process.

There you go, not waiting for the meta to adapt is premature.

[diopter]

Cruise Delver doesn't even have the best draw engine in Vintage. It's just the most efficient one for a fish deck. To beat it you can either:

a) Go over it by doing something broken (Oath, strong Shops openers, Storm, Dredge, etc), or

b) Have a way to x-for-1 their threats AND outdraw them, or

c) Have a way to x-for-1 their threats AND RiP them.

The top sentence in this post is factually incorrect.

The rest of the post belies a deep misunderstanding of Treasure Cruise and Delver specifically, and Vintage Magic in general.

[hashswag]

Cruise Delver doesn't even have the best draw engine in Vintage. It's just the most efficient one for a fish deck. To beat it you can either:

a) Go over it by doing something broken (Oath, strong Shops openers, Storm, Dredge, etc), or

b) Have a way to x-for-1 their threats AND outdraw them, or

c) Have a way to x-for-1 their threats AND RiP them.

The top sentence in this post is factually incorrect.

The rest of the post belies a deep misunderstanding of Treasure Cruise and Delver specifically, and Vintage Magic in general.

Okay, you got me. Treasure Cruise Delver is unbeatable and I have a deep misunderstanding of Treasure Cruise and Delver specifically, and Vintage Magic in general.

Next time you're going to dispute someone's position, try to have a better argument than...no argument (other than "ur wrong n stoopid").

[diopter]

Cruise Delver doesn't even have the best draw engine in Vintage. It's just the most efficient one for a fish deck. To beat it you can either:

a) Go over it by doing something broken (Oath, strong Shops openers, Storm, Dredge, etc), or

b) Have a way to x-for-1 their threats AND outdraw them, or

c) Have a way to x-for-1 their threats AND RiP them.

The top sentence in this post is factually incorrect.

The rest of the post belies a deep misunderstanding of Treasure Cruise and Delver specifically, and Vintage Magic in general.

Okay, you got me. Treasure Cruise Delver is unbeatable and I have a deep misunderstanding of Treasure Cruise and Delver specifically, and Vintage Magic in general.

Next time you're going to dispute someone's position, try to have a better argument than...no argument (other than "ur wrong n stoopid").

I definitely think your position and arguments are wrong , but I don't think I called you stupid.

Name a better draw engine. Put your position out there so it can properly be disputed. And I will dispute it, because on this matter I think your thesis is just straight up wrong.

Your other arguments are meaningless statements without context. I can similarly say I beat Shops by drawing more mana than they have mana oppression, and use that to deploy my win faster than I get attached by Golems and Factories.

Easy peasy - except for all the missing context like how I actually get to this state and how often I can do it and what my matchups against non-Shop decks look like if I warp my strategy to achieve this consistently and ...

[hashswag]

Gushbond is a better draw engine. Landstill with 4 Treasure Cruise has a better draw engine.

Treasure Cruise is a great engine for delver, sure, but that's because it hits the right mana cost to number of cards drawn ratio to allow them to keep deploying threats and cantripping. It solves the problem of an opponent just having to cope with the initial onslaught of creatures before Delver runs out of steam, by letting the Delver pilot reload and go again.

That doesn't mean it's the best draw engine in the format, nor does it mean the deck can't be outdrawn to consistently deal with its threats.

[Chubby Rain]

What decks are actually unable to win against Delver, rather than having a bad matchup?

UW Trinket Mage decks. UWx Stoneblade. UW Angels. UR Keranos. MUC. Esper Humans.

Cruise Delver doesn't even have the best draw engine in Vintage. It's just the most efficient one for a fish deck.

Preordain, Gush, Treasure Cruise, and Dack Fayden are absolutely absurd together - seriously it pretty much is the nut high as far as draw engines go.

I wrote something about the metagame development on Magic Online since the release of VMA. Enjoy

http://www.mtgoacademy.com/the-vintage-metagame-shops-delver-and-oath/

(Quick note: I finished the article a few days before the Eternal Weekend but waited for the results to conclude on how it could impact Magic Online. I wish it could have been online last week already, but I first had to write back and forth with the editor. Now it's done though, and it will definitely not be my last article on (online) Vintage.)

Thank you! I just wish we could get more tournaments going..

[diopter]

FoF: I assume you mean that when you match up Spirit against Cruise, and then get FoF online. Of course, the basic structure of TC decks prevents this from happening consistently. The TC decks require the least crap in them - you can run many 1-on-1 types like Bolt or Snare or Swords or EE. Then the DMD deck is left with extremely overpriced Facts.

Gushbond: Incorrect. Gushbond doesn't chain well unless it hits Fastbond which requires running things like Vamp and sometimes ISeal. TC chaining is absurd and requires only playing efficient 1-for 1's that do things. Do I want to run more filtering, countermagic, removal and interactive cards to enable my engine? I suppose you could twist my arm...

Landstill with 4 Cruises: Indeed, Cruise is insane.

---

I'm surprised there are so many Cruise doubters. 5 Ancestrals is a lot of Ancestrals.

[hashswag]

Cruise is insane. It's an incredible card. I'm not saying that Cruise is overrated or that the best draw engine in the format must be something that doesn't contain Cruise; I'm saying that it's very possible to compete with Delver's draw engine, so there's no need to panic about it being oppressive just because it's currently using Cruise the most effectively.

I'm surprised there are so many Cruise doubters. 5 Ancestrals is a lot of Ancestrals.

9 Ancestrals is more Ancestrals.  

[diopter]

Cruise is insane. It's an incredible card. I'm not saying the best draw engine in the format must be something that doesn't contain Cruise; I'm saying that it's very possible to compete with Delver's draw engine, so there's no need to panic about it being oppressive just because it's currently using Cruise the most effectively.

I'm surprised there are so many Cruise doubters. 5 Ancestrals is a lot of Ancestrals.

9 Ancestrals is more Ancestrals.  

Ah, I understand now! You were saying Cruise in a Delver shell may not be the ultimate best draw engine.

Yes, I too agree that Delver ultimately won't be the final nail in the Cruise coffin. I prepare to be awed and terrified by the Cruise abominations on the horizon, all of which do the same broken thing, only to win in different ways.

[xouman]

What decks are actually unable to win against Delver, rather than having a bad matchup?

UW Trinket Mage decks. UWx Stoneblade. UW Angels. UR Keranos. MUC. Esper Humans.

Are you sure? As someone said, I also think spirit of the labyrinth was pretty cool against delver. A batterskull is pretty broken if it sticks. Trinket can fetch for grave removal on a stick. Auriok salvagers are a great blocker, takes 2 bolts to remove, and recover explosives/grave removal.

I have won to delver decks with dark bomberman (with darkblast), and I have lost to it of course (confidant can be my worst enemy against delver)

However I understand that control builds are the dog against delver, much more explosive.

[serracollector]

I seriously thought a build with four nights whisper and four cruise would emerge. Yes standstill gets you three cards but is conditional on opponent while whisper just requires two life and helps fuel cruise especially if cast off a ritual. For example a turn one fetch ritual duress nights whisper gives you a huge advantage while also fueling an easily possible turn two cruise. If your opponent tries to misstep your ritual and you misstep back even better. I think new storm variants running the whisper cruise engine will emerge and will be better than the gush cruise engine of delver.

[Chubby Rain]

Are you sure? As someone said, I also think spirit of the labyrinth was pretty cool against delver. A batterskull is pretty broken if it sticks. Trinket can fetch for grave removal on a stick. Auriok salvagers are a great blocker, takes 2 bolts to remove, and recover explosives/grave removal.

I have won to delver decks with dark bomberman (with darkblast), and I have lost to it of course (confidant can be my worst enemy against delver)

However I understand that control builds are the dog against delver, much more explosive.

Yes, I tested these match ups quite a bit prior to Eternal Weekend. Spirit of the Labyrinth was very difficult to protect and does not attack effectively against Delver's creatures. It  is an enchantment and as such gets nommed by Trygon Predator and Nature's Claim. Batterskull early is really good. Batterskull in the late game gets stolen by Rich Shay's Dack Fayden and equipped to his Insectile Aberration. Delver decks also have access to Ancient Grudge, which makes winning with equipment much more difficult. Trinket Mage is slow and by the time he searches for Nihil, Delver has already Cruised once. Salvagers is good but you can't play him in the UW shell - it needs a more aggressive and combo-oriented shell.

[hashswag]

Batterskull in the late game gets stolen by Rich Shay's Dack Fayden and equipped to his Insectile Aberration.

 ! Did this actually happen? Is there a video? I assume it's from the super league, but I haven't been watching it.

[xouman]

Yes, I tested these match ups quite a bit prior to Eternal Weekend. Spirit of the Labyrinth was very difficult to protect and does not attack effectively against Delver's creatures. It  is an enchantment and as such gets nommed by Trygon Predator and Nature's Claim. Batterskull early is really good. Batterskull in the late game gets stolen by Rich Shay's Dack Fayden and equipped to his Insectile Aberration. Delver decks also have access to Ancient Grudge, which makes winning with equipment much more difficult. Trinket Mage is slow and by the time he searches for Nihil, Delver has already Cruised once. Salvagers is good but you can't play him in the UW shell - it needs a more aggressive and combo-oriented shell.

Ufffff, every of your statements makes sense I felt pretty confident for this pairing, but now it seems quite hard. Trinket at least should be able to win time, as chumpblocker. Is humanstorm better suited? If so, why?

[Chubby Rain]

Batterskull in the late game gets stolen by Rich Shay's Dack Fayden and equipped to his Insectile Aberration.

 ! Did this actually happen? Is there a video? I assume it's from the super league, but I haven't been watching it.

No, we were testing his UR delver deck prior to the VSL. And I don't think MTGO stores replays anymore .

Ufffff, every of your statements makes sense I felt pretty confident for this pairing, but now it seems quite hard. Trinket at least should be able to win time, as chumpblocker. Is humanstorm better suited? If so, why?

It's a matter of strategy...you can't beat delver going long or trading 1 for 1 so you try to force them to interact quickly with a hard to deal with threat (bomberman, tinker -> Sphinx, cavern + notion thief). Timewister is also very good against them if you can resolve is as they do not have the artifact mana to exploit it. It's by no means favorable but about 50%.

[youhavenogame]

Looking back, I first felt a bit guilty for "picking" on Delver and Shops... especially considering that the weeks after my article it seemed like the metagame actually adapted, or stabilized, or whatever, as we were back to some more diversity. With the upcoming Vintage Champs II this all seems to have changed and the penetration of Delver is super high again. I'm not sure how accessable decklists from prior tournaments are right because of Wotc screwing up on their decklist report communication, but I think like 6/8 winning decks are Delver again (or better, some sort of Pyromancer/ TC decks). Luckily we should get an update on the status quo within the next month...