Vintage Super League Season 2 Week 7-9 Predictions & Discussion

[tito del monte]

@DWPoker: It's definitely an ambitious list that leans very hard on Deathrite for its coloured mana requirements - that said, you're up against less in the way of removal I think against Oath and Doomsday (barring a couple of Abrupt Decay perhaps from Oath). On the plus side, it looks like you got your sideboard spot on for the mini-metagame - Plague and double Karakas! Great work.

Hope you pull through so we can keep enjoying your play style and commentary - good luck!

[fsecco]

It's easy to overlook the fact as well that the "mistakes" Rich made only look that way in hindsight whereas prospectively, there was validity and solid reasoning behind every judgment call.

I totally agree and hope my comments didn't sound like picking on Rich's plays. It's just nice to analyze this plays and learn. I think I would probably take the FoW too. But I know Rich played that Mox before Brainstorm because if he found an Oath with that he could just win. It was not bad at all. Also, his play didn't work because of LSV, actually. I really don't know if Steve would have destroyed that Mox if it wasn't for his match against LSV last week hehe

@DWPoker also rooting for you man. Hope Landstill makes it!

[healo]

I can't decide who to root for in Rich vs Dave match. On one side, I love Oath of Druids archetype and I'm long term Rich fan, but I want Dave to win all of his last matches so badly, because he totally deserves it (great player and he gives very insightful/entertaining commentary too). Also, it doesn't seem like he is making mistakes or wrong deck choices, either (similarly to Bob).

On a side not (sorry for off-topic), I wonder what is the main purpose of Memory's Journey in Gerg's Oath list. I always thought the main reason is to not get decked, but with 3 Griselbrands this hardly seems to be the same reason anymore. So my guess would be that it serves as some sort of an insurance you are able to assemble Vault/Key even if you happen to flip those cards in graveyard (and/or also Yawg. Will) while Oathing.

[fsecco]

I'm rooting for Dave solely for the reason I don't want him kicked out. Rich can manage 1 more loss I guess.

Although if Rich and Steve win both matches they may have a chance of Top 4 so that would be nice too!

[JACO]

My predictions for this week's matches:
EFro (Dredge) beats Maher (Doomsday)
Pikula (Chalice Merfolk) beats LSV (Punishing Dack Pyromancer)
Buehler (Merfolk) beats Martell (Doomsday)
Williams (Landstill UBG) beats Shay (Oath)
Menendian (URW Grow) beats Budde (Mono Blue Belcher)

What are your predictions for tonight's action?

[Will]

My predictions for this week's matches:
EFro (Dredge) beats Maher (Doomsday)
Pikula (Chalice Merfolk) beats LSV (Punishing Dack Pyromancer)
Buehler (Merfolk) beats Martell (Doomsday)
Williams (Landstill UBG) beats Shay (Oath)
Menendian (URW Grow) beats Budde (Mono Blue Belcher)

What are your predictions for tonight's action?

Bob beats E.Fro: I think Doomsday is faster than Dredge.
LSV beats Chris: Punishing Fire has to be good against Merfolk.
Buehler beats Martell: Merfolk is a handful for a Doomsday deck.
Williams beats Shay: Rich said he thinks that Dave built his deck just to beat him.
Budde beats Menendian: Blue Belcher was good against Delver earlier in the season, so I could see it also beating up on Mentor.

[Smmenen]

I sideboarded as follows:

+ 1 Pyroblast
+ 1 Stony Silence
+ 4 Ingot Chewer
+ 3 Shat Spree

- 3 Plow
- 6 Mentor/Pyromancer

That's right, I sbed out ALL of my Grow creatures.

I did a ton of testing, and I'm a pretty huge favorite with this plan.  With Silence in play, his only way to win is Tezzeret ultimate.  The other minor danger is SSG beatdown.  But I can even with by stealing a Belcher and pick off a SSG or like activating it like 10 times as a win condition - even if I have to use all of my Ingot Chewers. 

In Game 1, there were so many different lines I could have taken, but the reason I didn't Dack the Lotus was because he'd still have 7 mana to play Belcher and activate it.  I should have thought about Preordain, which justifies stealing Lotus there, but +1 Dack also gives me a chance to find Misstep.  I think that's an EXTREMELY close question, and I'm not sure what the right play was.  Obviously, I wish I had taken the Lotus in retrospect.  I probably would have won that game.

In the land of "would have worked out better, but not necessarily the right play,"stealing Key would have worked out best before he topdecked TIme Vault, as I would have preserved both Force and Dig, so I could Dig next turn, but that's just the wrong play - as he could topdeck anything else and I'd likely lose. 

In Game 3, Stony Silence was 2nd from the top at the end of the game. What I was pondering there wasn't whether to take Pearl or Belcher, but whether to +1.  A good case could have been made there for actually +1ing Dack because of all of my artifact hate.  I also had a Preordain.  Had I +1ed I would have been able to cast Stony Silence with Petal and floating red. 

It's also possible i should have mulliganed that hand.

I clearly lost game 3 because he topdecked Academy.  It was far and away the best possible thing he could have drawn as it gives him the mana to play/use Belcher AND a clean Belch.

Super disappointing, but highly entertaining.  I feel  that more than a few of my losses have had that unfortunate quality, but I've given as well as I've gotten so there's that as well. And, I was playing Kai, so there's that as well

[Space_Stormy]

Your game against Kai was so insane to watch. Topdeck for topdeck and 3 turns of insanity. Love VSL!

[StrongSide]

@ DWpoker  Your games were insane! and finding the correct lines was insanely impressive. You have intrigued me to check out the list as a whole and I have been a U/W standstill type player who is actually interested in sleeving up this bug list. Keep up the good work and I really enjoy your choice in deck lists!

[Prospero]

It wasn't good to see either Rich or Steve lose, though at least this puts Dave in a position to survive.  His fate is in his hands, and I like that.  He needs that win against Bob next week.  I wish him the best of luck.

And then there's Chris.  Watching Chris guarantee his playoff spot was great.  I thoroughly enjoyed his match against LSV, whom I'd normally root for, but in these circumstances...

Week nine seems to be shaping up to be very exciting.

[healo]

I clearly lost game 3 because he topdecked Academy.  It was far and away the best possible thing he could have drawn as it gives him the mana to play/use Belcher AND a clean Belch.

I think it is only fair to note that you could have lost 0-2. You were very lucky not to run into a Misstep with your Ancestral in game 2, in my opinion.

[dwpoker]

@ DWpoker  Your games were insane! and finding the correct lines was insanely impressive. You have intrigued me to check out the list as a whole and I have been a U/W standstill type player who is actually interested in sleeving up this bug list. Keep up the good work and I really enjoy your choice in deck lists!

Thanks man! Was a super hard and intense match. It took everything for to not just concede when he landed Gris t1 in g2. Never give up!

I don't think this deck is actually very good. I only played it because I felt my 3 opponents were likely on some combination of Merfolk, Shops and Oath and I felt it was the deck that had the strongest game vs that 3 deck metagame. Even so there are a few things I'd like to change in it.

-1 Mishra -1 Bayou +2 blue duals
-1 MBT +1 Mental Misstep
-1 Steel Sabotage + 1 Misdirection

And probably more.

[The Atog Lord]

Dave, you played that match extremely well. I enjoyed that match thoroughly, and was impressed by how you showed patience and choose carefully when to deploy your answers. Great match.

[emidln]

In the Efro vs Bob final game, once Bob casts YawgWill, he should have just immediately via Doomsdaying for Gushes instead of screwing around with random draws via:

Petal
Fastbond
Fetch->Sea (-2 to 14)
Fetch->Sea (-2 to 12)
Dark Ritual
Doomsday (Gush, Gush, Lab Man, BS, BLANK go to 6)
Ponder->Gush
Gush for Gush/LM (-2 to replay, going to 4, floating UU)
Gush for BS/BLANK (-2 to replay, going to 2, floating UU)
LM (U)
BS, win

[CHA1N5]

@ DWpoker  Your games were insane! and finding the correct lines was insanely impressive. You have intrigued me to check out the list as a whole and I have been a U/W standstill type player who is actually interested in sleeving up this bug list. Keep up the good work and I really enjoy your choice in deck lists!

Thanks man! Was a super hard and intense match. It took everything for to not just concede when he landed Gris t1 in g2. Never give up!

Yes, I was especially impressed by your lack of Mana Drain on the Ancestral fight, in order to keep Abrupt Decay up.  Great job.

[Smmenen]

I clearly lost game 3 because he topdecked Academy.  It was far and away the best possible thing he could have drawn as it gives him the mana to play/use Belcher AND a clean Belch.

I think it is only fair to note that you could have lost 0-2. You were very lucky not to run into a Misstep with your Ancestral in game 2, in my opinion.

Kai doesn't run maindeck Missteps, FYI.  I wasn't even sure he'd bring them in.  He has alot of SB options, and, as we saw, they aren't all obvious.

I could have won any of those games had I taken different lines. The decision to +1 Dack in game 1 was close, but I think wrong, in retrospect, instead of targeting Lotus.

[WhiteLotus]

I sideboarded as follows:

+ 1 Pyroblast
+ 1 Stony Silence
+ 4 Ingot Chewer
+ 3 Shat Spree

- 3 Plow
- 6 Mentor/Pyromancer

That's right, I sbed out ALL of my Grow creatures.

I did a ton of testing, and I'm a pretty huge favorite with this plan.  With Silence in play, his only way to win is Tezzeret ultimate.  The other minor danger is SSG beatdown.  But I can even with by stealing a Belcher and pick off a SSG or like activating it like 10 times as a win condition - even if I have to use all of my Ingot Chewers. 

In Game 1, there were so many different lines I could have taken, but the reason I didn't Dack the Lotus was because he'd still have 7 mana to play Belcher and activate it.  I should have thought about Preordain, which justifies stealing Lotus there, but +1 Dack also gives me a chance to find Misstep.  I think that's an EXTREMELY close question, and I'm not sure what the right play was.  Obviously, I wish I had taken the Lotus in retrospect.  I probably would have won that game.

In the land of "would have worked out better, but not necessarily the right play,"stealing Key would have worked out best before he topdecked TIme Vault, as I would have preserved both Force and Dig, so I could Dig next turn, but that's just the wrong play - as he could topdeck anything else and I'd likely lose. 

In Game 3, Stony Silence was 2nd from the top at the end of the game. What I was pondering there wasn't whether to take Pearl or Belcher, but whether to +1.  A good case could have been made there for actually +1ing Dack because of all of my artifact hate.  I also had a Preordain.  Had I +1ed I would have been able to cast Stony Silence with Petal and floating red. 

It's also possible i should have mulliganed that hand.

I clearly lost game 3 because he topdecked Academy.  It was far and away the best possible thing he could have drawn as it gives him the mana to play/use Belcher AND a clean Belch.

Super disappointing, but highly entertaining.  I feel  that more than a few of my losses have had that unfortunate quality, but I've given as well as I've gotten so there's that as well. And, I was playing Kai, so there's that as well

I honestly don't think you misplayed at any point except the greedy keep with ancestral petal. The lines you suggest that would have won you the games in that match are a fair stretch if you consider odds etc. You just lost to a bad matchup and variance which are usually the deterministic factors at this level of competition.