State of the Format: The Perfect Summer Storm

[Dozer]

Quote (Vegeta2711 @ July 14 2003,20:12)Combo as far as I am concerned has 4 weak points; the type of combo deck determines just how much it's vulnerable to each.
1. Destroying the hand before being able to unload their key cards.
2. The mana bases are usually fragile and be disrupted.
3. Counters that can say 'No' to the key spells.
4. Inability to deal with opposing permanents.

Some combo has been deafly vulnerable to all of the above, but it's rare.

The current crop of combo decks have destroyed reason #3 with the massive amount of hand rape they pack now, not to mention the constant shrinking of combo engines and the advent of Storm. Reason 1 has also been lessened to a good extent due to that and the engines getting compact enough for it not to matter as much as it once did. It's still effective, just not as bad when you can TD a win or hide it with Brainstorms.

This leaves us with reasons 2 and 4 as the main place to hit them.

I agree with your general 4 points of weakness. However, I do not agree with how you say Combo decks handle these.
I think pretty much the only thing that is left to beat Combo are reasons 1 and 2, and even that is hard. Combo decks have learned to deal with opposing permanents (reason 4) with the advent of Burning Wish. See Roland's take on long.dec: He could wish for anything he might need, without even having to spare a Wish for the win condition. That leaves a lot of room to deal with opponent's permanents, even if it is done by the way of Burning Wish.

Also, disrupting combo mana bases is not as easy as it was. Fetchlands still work as Wasteland protection, Gush is present in Shining, and there are even combo decks that are not entirely reliant on their artifact mana to win (Shaman/ Null Rod). The only thing that can reliably work is Blood Moon, and that will get Duressed, FoW'ed, after SBing maybe even Aura Fractured.

Disrupting their hand might win you the game -- if (and that is the big trouble) you can get your disruption in before theirs.

In conlusion, I think that combo decks are more resilient than ever. Due to Storm, which cannot be countered easily (apart from Stifle), Duress is the disruption spell of choice both of the combo decks and their opponents.
I don't see a dominant Combo-Deck rising. The new builds are all strong, and they will be chosen on personal preference - LED's are not every man's weapon, as well as Rectors aren't. RectorTendrils and AcademyTendrils (aka long.dec, or Bus, or whatever) are the "true" combo-decks out there, Shining is the combo-control-Deck. Whichever you chose depends on your personal style.

Dozer

P.S.: I'm personally eager to see which deck will emerge victoriuos in the upcoming ToC. We will then see if we really need to bicker about an unbalanced combo summer and control and aggro will adapt.

[Vegeta2711]

To be perfectly honest I haven't played against a Burning Wish variant such as RolandB's build more than once or twice, mostly only vs. the B/W/U versions where they have maybe a Balance or Vindicate (I've played against 2 builds running this) to deal with opposing permenants.

So I guess it could be easier to deal with that, for right now I mainly mention reason 4 as EBA and Stacker simply play a lot off annoying permenants for the combo deck.

"Disrupting their hand might win you the game -- if (and that is the big trouble) you can get your disruption in before theirs."

See this is why I say reason 1 isn't good enough anymore. If it comes down to the die roll, it's not a great plan to rely on.

Hitting their mana base isn't as effective anymore as we both mentioned, but you still see reports where combo decks just roll over and die to getting a few wastes thrown at them. So I still would think this is the best course of attack.

[Dozer]

Quote (Vegeta2711 @ July 16 2003,01:02)To be perfectly honest I haven't played against a Burning Wish variant such as RolandB's build more than once or twice, mostly only vs. the B/W/U versions where they have maybe a Balance or Vindicate (I've played against 2 builds running this) to deal with opposing permenants.

So I guess it could be easier to deal with that, for right now I mainly mention reason 4 as EBA and Stacker simply play a lot off annoying permenants for the combo deck.

[...]

Hitting their mana base isn't as effective anymore as we both mentioned, but you still see reports where combo decks just roll over and die to getting a few wastes thrown at them. So I still would think this is the best course of attack.

That might be the difference (also playing into the "metagame"-discussion): I am not playing against Stax and EBA here, so I had as yet no problems with their permanents. I do imagine, though, that at least Stax' permanents cannot be as easily controlled as EBA, barring Meddling Mage on Burning Wish.
I know for a fact that against Mask, another deck with troublesome permanents, Balance and Primitive Justice work quite well. Anyway, I think that is a problem that can be handled, as long as you Counter or Therapy intelligently (if you have some). That's what they there for, protecting your game. For protecting the combo, Duress is usually sufficient.

Hitting the mana base still works, yes. I just wanted to emphasize that it has become harder with the advent of Fetchlands. I still fear the return of 5-Strip-Keeper with MD Gorilla Shaman.

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On the topic of Storm, being the reason for this thread, I received a PM from thefram, a TMD-User from the unreggie forum, who commented on the following snippet of mine and which I'd like to share in this thread, because it valiantly adresses the problem "Storm":

Quote (by Dozer)
Due to Storm, which cannot be countered easily (apart from Stifle)

Quote PM from thefram:
you mentioned in one of your posts on Smmenen's "The Perfect Summer Storm" that the only efficient way to counter storm is stifle.

Being that i am a TMDuser and not member currently, i couldnt answer that post, but i'd just like to share something with you because i think it would take some of the bite out of stom decks. I personally play "Rectal Agony" (Rector-Tendrils). I have some experience with it, and i played a small role in developing it on the newbie forum.

There is another efficient instant card that can counteract storm, and is not dead against other decks if played as a cunning wish target, or boarded in. It is Scourge's Gilded Light.

-----
Gilded Light
1W Instant
You cannot be the target of spells or abilities until end of turn.
Cycling 2
-----

I also play control and i currently have it as a wish target. It does alot. it counters Tendrils most notably. unlike stifle it counters it in full, and not just the copies. it counters brainfreeze, it counters donate, it counters direct damage, diabolic edicts, a stroke from old academy, etc etc.

-thefram

[urza's child]

yeah guilded light is my tech, i used it at waterbury and developed it myself only because I did not have abeyances. Abeyance, and even orim's chant are better in every which way possible. Abeyance costs the same and cantrips, chant can save you some life also. I did like the guilded light, but i lost a game because it was a gilded light, not an abeyance. it's decent, but if you cast it they can just go off next turn

[MoreFling]

thefram is great.

guess I'm not the only one who has it on his "cards to look at very closely" list
But really, I will duress / therapy your wish away. My prime targets in general are fows and wishes. I can play around stuff like Drain.

[Chen]

In white deck that doesnt have blue, then perhaps Gilded Light would be decent, but I find its too reactive and rather narrow. In decks that can support blue, Stifle just seems superior. Stifle lets you counter the storm trigger (though not the original spell) but it also lets you counter fetch-lands, Rector's trigger, opposing wastelands as well as most of Stax's dangerous cards (at least for a turn).

With all these new combo decks running around, it may not be a bad idea to find some slots, maindeck, for a stifle or two. From what I said above, they are rarely dead and they might be what is necessary to give countrol a bit better a chance versus these new combos.

[Vegeta2711]

Gilded Light is cute in one other aspect, if for some reason people are running Brain Freeze as the kill over Tendrils and it manages to stay in your hand long enough, casting Gilded Light makes them kill themselves. (All Storm copies will need to be retargeted after the original and guess who the only legal target left is?   )

Just something I think worth mentioning.

[Dozer]

Quote (MoreFling @ July 16 2003,10:04)thefram is great.

guess I'm not the only one who has it on his "cards to look at very closely" list
But really, I will duress / therapy your wish away. My prime targets in general are fows and wishes. I can play around stuff like Drain.

Well, looks like thefram has chosen me to be his "spokesman" , so I will give to you what he wrote as an appearent response to Morefling's comment:

Quote PM from thefram:
Dozer, it should be pointed out that it can be wished for in response to a duress/therapy, cast and be a time walk. that really ruins a tendrils decks steam. assuming that they built up a 5-6 storm count and are now lower on life than they were before, now they have to discard, and do it again on lower life, while keeper could use that extra turn to blow up the bargain. I guess abeyance would do the same thing against tendrils, but overall i think this has more uses as a wish target being that it can act as a white counterspell against many things.

Wish -> Gilded Light in response to Duress is tech -- however, for me the question remains if you can get the mana for that. This will only be possible against a mid- to lategame Duress (barring Lotus help), so it will only be good against the Duress that is supposed to clear the way for the Storm-Win.
It is better than Abeyance though, because it also works if the Tendrils are already on the stack - reactive, not proactive.

The question that Chen raised needs to be solved, though: Is Gilded Light a better Wish-Target than Stifle? It serves more as a "real counter" than Stifle, but then again, it can't do all the stifling tricks that the best conditional counter ever printed can do, and both get rid of Storm. Gilded Light has the benefit of also killing opponents with their own Brain Freeze, Stifle has to its merits the additional Wasteland protection, protection from Rector and the Stone Rain against Fetchies.

Personally, I'd go for Stifle if I'd expect (in addition to the combo decks) Stax and TnT and for Gilded Light if I'd expect Sligh and Sui. A heavy presence of Rector Trix might tilt that in Stifle's favour, though against The Shining, Gilded Light is better.

How would you decide to combat Storm?

Dozer

[jntemp777]

Often times with Tendrils/Bangbus, when the time to cast their uncounterable/unmisdirectable kill is at hand, they have so much momentum/duress-like-disruption that they are often times unstoppable anyways.  

The problem with stifle, gilded light, orim's chant, etc. as sideboard against  the storm mechanic is that you are assuming several situational points:

1.  when they cast their kill:  
a.-You will have the card in hand    
b.-It has not been duressed away.  
c.-If you don't have the card in hand, then you have a wish to go fetch the sideboard card.  

2.  You have mana open to cast your sideboard card, or the mana to wish then cast your sideboard card when combo is ready to cast their kill.

To have fullfilled both condition #1 and #2 is not very common.  With all their draw 7's, you often never have the card you want at the right time.  I have found in testing that it is often more reliable to disrupt Tendril/Bangbus's hand and/or artifact mana sources, than to rely on stifle, gilded light or other such sideboard cards.

[walking dude]

One the mana side 5 waste keeper with maindeck stifles could be deadly.

Stifle is a 1 mana instant sinkhole that has the "side benefit" of stopping storm, rectors, smokestacks, caps, and any number of Bad Things. If aggro decks are becoming uncommon, it might be worth thinking about moving them main. At the very worst they are blue so you can allways pitch them.

[Mon, Goblin Chief]

Quote The problem with stifle, gilded light, orim's chant, etc. as sideboard against  the storm mechanic is that you are assuming several situational points:

1.  when they cast their kill:  
a.-You will have the card in hand    
b.-It has not been duressed away.  
c.-If you don't have the card in hand, then you have a wish to go fetch the sideboard card.
2.  You have mana open to cast your sideboard card, or the mana to wish then cast your sideboard card when combo is ready to cast their kill.

These points don't really hit the point, IMO. First thing, I think we're talking about a single Stiffle in a Keeper SB. You won't board it in if you can play. so 1.c. is the only relevant point here.
For 2. I can only say this much: Tendrils Academy, BangBus, whatever you call it, is not really harder to catch (it seems to me) than other combo-decks are. With one (or better 2) differences: The 2 MD Storm-Spells. If any of these is topdecked, they win. That's what, IMO, Stiffle is for, to take their edge against Control away, bringing their matchup-percentages back to acceptable figures. I usually won't counter the actual kill (countering Burning Wish works there), I'll counter their setups.
Producing a deadly Tendrils without playing any counterable spells that are worth countering is quite hard. If they resolve multiple Draw7, Will, Necro, Bargain or Sight, it's not the Storm-card that made you loose. So the Storm-card is not the problem, either.

[Toast]

against combo I usually stifle their fetchies if I stifle anything mana denial 4L