I'm not going to post a deck list. I'm not ...

[Shivea]

I'm not going to post a deck list.  I'm not going to call anyone's build optomial.  But every build that I've seen on and off the internet forumns has two problems that really stand out.

How can you win without Blood Moon OR Isochron's Sceptor (with a good stick to it)?

How do you plan on getting by the first two rounds of any given tournament?

These two problems really make me wonder why everyone is so hyped up about this archtype.  Most builds are so very dependant upon Sceptors and Blood Moons that they have trouble winning without them.  There's no single answer to every threat possible outside of countermagic, which has dropped considerably from the high counts of 14-16 last seen in U/R Phid and Mono-U builds, down to the current 'optimal' 8-12.

I'll admit that the initial engine was very bad, and Sceptor is much better.  But I can see it having lots of problems with such a low countermagic count to deal with things UNTILL Blood Moon of a Sceptor hits the table.  I basically see this archtype as a Pure, Non-Workshop Control deck (well, as pure as it will get for a long time).  Trying to add in disruption to any non-hybid control deck has been a proven to be a complete and utter failure.  Proof:

Zherb's 'Disruptive Keeper'
EBA (in general)
AMB (in general)

All three have had some form of disruptive elements incoperated into their 60 slots, and all have ended up becoming 'sub-optimal' builds.

Comments, thoughts....?

[BreathWeapon]

Well, you can run 2xFuture Sight in addition to Scepters and Bloodmoon's. I made the "mistake" of not running these in my original U/r Scepter build, and I am loving them to death now. Future Sight > Yawg Win and Mindtwist.

Most random Aggro isn't terribly difficult to take down. Sceptered Fire/Ice is pretty harsh, and game 2 your running 4 Fire/Ice guaranteed. Even against fully sided hate like 4 Rack and Ruin and 4 Null Rod vs B/R Suicide, Scepters are still strong if you play them more conservatively. Playing them from Drain Mana and Clearing the board of threats with Wishes is optimal. Its also possible that U/r Scepter may need to run 2xMorphlings to deal with fully meta'd Aggo like B/R Suicide. If this is true, its unfortunate because Scepter decks created a tertiary win condition with an Imprinted Fire/Ice, which reduced the need for "Finishers."

The loss of counters 9-14 have, so far, seemed to be the proper decision. Stifle is doing just as much as Mana Leak in the early game, and it serves as a late game BOMB vs Dragon ... with a few hundred other uses to boot. Cunning Wish also alleviates the need for excessive MD counters by moving specific answers to the SB. It can call upon; MisD, Stifle, REB, Fire/Ice, R&R, Hurkyl's and Fact or Fiction.

My list for U/r Scepter can be found in the appropriate thread in the Vintage Forum. I continue to update it as I play test with it more and more. The only questions i'm trying to hammer out is whether or not Morphling # 2, -1 Future Sight, makes a significant difference vs Aggro, if Fact or Fiction belongs in the SB to diversify my C.Wish targets and if Mystical Tutor or Merchant Scroll for Ancestral Recall is more practical than a lone Future Sight if Morphling #2 is indoctrinated.

It might be wise to import the decklist simply to have a standard by which to judge the archetype, but i'll leave that up to you.\n\n

[the Luke]

And don't forget Shockwave's U/r Landstill. Disks are amazing board sweepers and Standstill is one of the coolest card drawers ever.

[wollblad]

As I see it, in today's meta game it has become more and more important to utilize all resorces. When mono-blue was at it's stongest, the graveyard was something that you could use but only reanimator and replenish decks was based on it. Today, most of the best decks uses their graveyard to a maximum. The sucess of Welder Mud, Rector-decks and Hulk Smash  is partly due to the fact that they have one more resource compared to other decks: the graveyard. Now U/r Control can in no effective way use their graveyard and in such a case the deck needs to be stronger in all other areas like card drawing, deck consistency and card economy. But U/r Control is not superb in any of these areas either, only reasonably good and that is in my oppinion why the deck cannot be teir one as the meta game looks today.

[Shock Wave]

Quote The sucess of Welder Mud, Rector-decks and Hulk Smash  is partly due to the fact that they have one more resource compared to other decks: the graveyard.

I guess Tormod's Crypt doesn't exist where you come from? It is very easy to hate the graveyard, so the success of a lot of archetypes hardly depends on whether or not they utilize the graveyard as a resource.

[wollblad]

Quote (Shock Wave @ Dec. 10 2003,03:37)I guess Tormod's Crypt doesn't exist where you come from? It is very easy to hate the graveyard, so the success of a lot of archetypes hardly depends on whether or not they utilize the graveyard as a resource.

Why must people always make such thoughtless comments? Of course Tormod's Crypt is played, but if a deck utilizes it's gravyard and still is strong in the other aspects mentioned above, the opponent gets one more resource to worry about when sideboarding /building their decks. If you to deal with the graveyard include cards like Tormod's Crypt you need to exclude something else and hence your deck is weakened in some other aspect instead.

[Shock Wave]

Quote Why must people always make such thoughtless comments?

Control decks do not need maindeck graveyard hate in order to win against decks that use their graveyards as resources. Different decks use different avenues to win. Just because Welder Mud, Hulk, and Dragon use their graveyards as resources, it makes them in no way stronger than decks that are synergistic in their own respect.

Are you implying that because Gay Red does not make use of its graveyard that it is any less worthy a deck than Dragon, for instance?

I played U/R Landstill at a rather prestigious tournament a few days ago. I played against Keeper twice, Dragon, Neo Tog, and several Workshop decks. While every one of those decks utilizes the graveyard in some manner and I do not, I beat them all (except for Dragon). I ended up splitting 1st and 2nd with the Dragon player, while he conceded that the matchup is in my favour.

Quote Of course Tormod's Crypt is played, but if a deck utilizes it's gravyard and still is strong in the other aspects mentioned above, the opponent gets one more resource to worry about when sideboarding /building their decks. If you to deal with the graveyard include cards like Tormod's Crypt you need to exclude something else and hence your deck is weakened in some other aspect instead

Tormod's Crypt is absolutely *standard* in sideboards that do not run other graveyard removal of some sort (Coffin Purge, Ebony Charm, etc.) What is there to worry about? If you do not have some sort of method of dealing with the graveyard and you are playing a control deck, then you definitely missed the boat a long time ago. Using the graveyard as a resource and accomodating sideboard space to deal with the graveyard are entirely seperate issues. Your argument totally lacks cohesion, despite how you claim my comments to be "thoughtless".

[wollblad]

Quote (Shock Wave @ Dec. 10 2003,04:14)Control decks do not need maindeck graveyard hate in order to win against decks that use their graveyards as resources. Different decks use different avenues to win. Just because Welder Mud, Hulk, and Dragon use their graveyards as resources, it makes them in no way stronger than decks that are synergistic in their own respect.

Are you implying that because Gay Red does not make use of its graveyard that it is any less worthy a deck than Dragon, for instance?

You miss the point. I tries to point out that if a deck not uses all of it's resorces (like U/r Control do not use it's sideboard) it needs to stronger in some other respect, for example as you say by being synergistic in some other way. Landstill (which I didn't include in U/r control) is such an example where every card is good in it selfe but all cards make the other cards even better. Ordinary U/r controll with Scepters do not have such a good synnergy and will never have. It consists more or less of a bunch good cards that do not contradict each other, but neither they have the synnergy cards in for example Landstill do have and that is why U/r Scepter Control never can reach the level of the best decks.

For the use of cards like Tormod's Crypt, take for example Stax. Meeting Stax, first you need to include artifact hate and second you need either to take care of the Welders or of the graveyard. The more cards you sideboard, the larger is the risk that your own deck looses it's consistency. If Stax had not used it's graveyard, you would only had to include artifact hate and thus get a better matchup.

In conclusion using your graveyard gives two effects. It gives you more cards to work with and it will be harder to sideboard against you (unless you like Dragon totally relies on your graveyard).

[PucktheCat]

Quote You miss the point. I tries to point out that if a deck not uses all of it's resorces (like U/r Control do not use it's sideboard) it needs to stronger in some other respect, for example as you say by being synergistic in some other way.

This reasoning is appalling.

Let me present to you two imaginary decks.  One is composed of 20 Grim Lavamancer, 20 Lightning Bolts and 20 Mountains/Fetchland.  The other has the exact same arrangement with 20 “Grimmer Lavamaner” in place of the Grim Lavamancer.  Grimmer Lavamancer is exactly the same as Grim Lavamancer except his ability does not require cards in the graveyard to use.

Which is the better deck?

Alternative resources (like life and the graveyard) are only as useful as the cards that use them.  There is no universal rule that a deck that uses more resources is the better deck.  The deck that wins is the best deck.  Period.  If using your grave yard gives you a better chance of winning you use it, if giving up your graveyard and using basic lands (a resource most decks neglect) gives you an advantage you do that.

Look at the current T1 tournament scene in terms of life use.  The only popular deck that makes use of its life in any meaningful way is Spoils Mask.  Fish wouldn’t be a better deck if it tried to shoehorn BBB (or BB4) into its mana base for Necropotence/Yawgmoth’s Bargain.  

The ‘other way to compete’ that Ur Control brings to the table is, wait for it . . . Blood Moon.  This deck isn’t as adaptable as Keeper because it loses colors, but it has Blood Moon to shut out its opponents colors too.  For this it loses Keeper’s graveyard utilization.  In some matchups Blood Moon is better than Yawgmoth’s Will.  In others it is tremendously worse.  That doesn’t amount to strict superiority by any means.

If you look in the U/r Bloodmoon control thread I started in the Vintage forum, the last post of the thread, by BreathWeapon, provides a useful and accurate summary of the deck’s place in the metagame.  It has different weaknesses and strengths than other control decks, and is certainly a metagame dependent deck, but it isn’t by an means a given that Keeper is a better choice.

Quote  In conclusion using your graveyard gives two effects. It gives you more cards to work with and it will be harder to sideboard against you (unless you like Dragon totally relies on your graveyard).

You are assuming that a deck can use its graveyard without an investment of its own.  This isn’t true.  If a deck makes use of its graveyard it is using its draw phases and mana to do so.  If the graveyard isn’t available (through Tormod’s Crypt or otherwise) they are at a disadvantage – a disadvantage they wouldn’t face if they weren’t using the graveyard.  The more the use their graveyard the more they face this problem.  Some cards are efficient enough to justify this added vulnerability (Dragon’s gamewinners spring to mind) some aren’t (Death Spark).

Leo

[Toad]

Quote (wollblad @ Dec. 10 2003,13:15)For the use of cards like Tormod's Crypt, take for example Stax. Meeting Stax, first you need to include artifact hate and second you need either to take care of the Welders or of the graveyard. The more cards you sideboard, the larger is the risk that your own deck looses it's consistency. If Stax had not used it's graveyard, you would only had to include artifact hate and thus get a better matchup.

This is a bad thing to do. Most of the graveyard hosers have one-shot effects, such as Tormod's Crypt and Coffin Purge. Thus, quite frankly, sideboarding graveyard hate is not really strong against Stax and wMUD. Artifact hate and spot removal are enough. Crypting a wMUD player who has an active Welder on the board will only prevent him from using it for a turn or two. Really weak, considering you have lost a card in the processus. Kill the Welder, and that's the end of all your problems, forever.

Yes, the graveyard is a ressource. But it's a really conditional once. wMUD can't use his graveyard without Goblin Welder. Keeper needs his Yawgmoth's Will. Dragon needs some Animate Dead effects. The strengh of a deck is not linked to its ability to use every single ressource in Magic. UR decks are strong because they have access to counters and strong hosers. Why do you want to deal with Dragon's graveyard, for example, when you can turn his most potent discard outlet into a Mountain, and counter his Animate Dead? (Of course you *need* to bring in some GVY hate too, but that was not the point of my argument). Sligh can use his graveyard thanks to Grim Lavamancer. Does that make it a better deck than UrPhidian ? Obviously not.

[wollblad]

Quote (PucktheCat @ Dec. 10 2003,08:58)Let me present to you two imaginary decks.  One is composed of 20 Grim Lavamancer, 20 Lightning Bolts and 20 Mountains/Fetchland.  The other has the exact same arrangement with 20 “Grimmer Lavamaner” in place of the Grim Lavamancer.  Grimmer Lavamancer is exactly the same as Grim Lavamancer except his ability does not require cards in the graveyard to use.

Which is the better deck?

Now all arguing have ther counter arguments. Let me present to you a much more probable senario. The first deck is as stated but the you wont find a card such as Grimmer Lavamancer. Instead you might choose "Not so Grim Lavamancer" That costs one more mana to play and one more mana to activate. Now which deck is the better?

Another example is Skeletal Scrying where you use the alternative resources graveyard and life to draw cards. The alternative is to use Braingeyser or Stroke of Genius, both for a higher mana investment.

The situation is common to many decks: there is often "better" alternative if you are willing to use alternative resorces, but there are no such alternatvies for U/r Control. So you are right when you say that "Alternative resources are only as useful as the cards that use them" but as you can see, the cards that uses them are often "better" than alternative cards that do not. It is a question of dividing the investment.

Quote The only popular deck that makes use of its life in any meaningful way is Spoils Mask.

Here around we have a lot of Rector/Tendrils decks that do it equally well. Keeper also do it by the use of Skeletal Scrying.

You point out the biggest weakness all by yourself: the deck counts on the opponent being hurt by  Blood Moon, if he/she does not the deck has very little alternative strength. It is one of those decks that looses to bad decks and win against good ones which is not vialbe in large tornament where the first few rounds often consists of beating "random" decks until you start meeting the top decks. A deck like U/r control may very well end up loosing to such decks and never reach the top just because it have only one strength: Blood Moon.

[PucktheCat]

Quote (wollblad @ Dec. 10 2003,10:39)You point out the biggest weakness all by yourself: the deck counts on the opponent being hurt by  Blood Moon, if he/she does not the deck has very little alternative strength. It is one of those decks that looses to bad decks and win against good ones which is not vialbe in large tornament where the first few rounds often consists of beating "random" decks until you start meeting the top decks. A deck like U/r control may very well end up loosing to such decks and never reach the top just because it have only one strength: Blood Moon.

That's a valid argument.  I don't disagree that U/r Blood Moon is a deck that you play for its matchups against the later round decks, and that it is substantially weaker against the randomness you face first round.  There is no way to resolve that tension except to decide what makes sense for you.  In a powered metagame where there is a lot of Keeper and Dragon it is a good choice.  Some players might also hope to outplay your first round opponent, hoping an aggro player is less skilled than the combo and control players. (whether this has any merit is an argument for another time)

I don't agree that U/r's only strength is Blood Moon however.  That may be the only card it offers that other control decks can't but that doesn't mean it doesn't have other powerful effects at its disposal.

The point is that playing a metagame deck doesn’t give you a 50% chance of winning every matchup but it may give you a 70% chance of winning one particular mathup.  That makes it a consideration in certain circumstances.

On the issue of resource utilization in general I think the deck that plays the most powerful effects fastest is the best.  If WotC decides to reward graveyard use in a particular color by making them more powerful sooner then they going to get played.  If other effects are more powerful faster they will get played.  WotC has been rewarding graveyard usage lately so there have been some powerful undercosted effects for decks that do it, however other cards that are similarly undercosted still exist and ignoring them in the interests of ‘total resource usage’ is silly.

Leo\n\n

[BreathWeapon]

Wollbad, the ability to use your Grave Yard is in no way a justification for stating that a this deck is inferior.

In fact, i'm going to state the exact opposite. I deck that is REQUIRED to manipulate its grave yard is in fact, worse than those that do not have to access their grave yard to win the game. Rector and Dragon DIE to GY Hate. Does U/r Scepter? No.

Now lets ease off that extreme, what about decks like wMUD and Hulk that only "utilize" the GY? Welder and AK are some good, no doubt, but has that made them dominant decks in the current Meta? No. In fact, those two decks are amongst U/r Controls better match ups ... theres a shocker.

Would a Mod come and deal with this mess so that we me PLEASE get the thread back on subject. If you want to discuss the UBER COOLNESS of the Grave Yard, please make your own thread and take the argument there.

This is a U/r Scepter thread, not a debate on Grave Yard manipulation.\n\n

[Shivea]

There's still the same problems in U/R Sceptor as there was before...

@ BreathWeapon: Would you mind posting your list?  You keep posting about how good it is, but I haven't seen a list anywhere.  I really do like the idea of Future Sight.  Testing after school today proved it's inclusion is equal to, if not more important than Blood Moon.

[BreathWeapon]

Here is my most current build,

"U/r Scepter"

Control (8)
4xForce of Will
4xManadrain

Draw/Search (6)
3xCunning Wish
4xBrainstorm
1xTimewalk
1xAncestral Recall

Engine (4)
4xIsochron Scepter

Utility (9)
4xFire/Ice
3xStifle
2xGorilla Shaman

Bombs (2)
2xBloodmoon

Kill (2)
2xMorphling

Mana (26)
7xSoLoMoxen
1xStrip Mine
4xWasteland
5xFetch Lands
4xVolcanic Islands
5xIsland

Sideboard
2xBloodmoon
2xTormod's Crypt
1xFact or Fiction
1xMisdirection
1xRack and Ruin
4xRed Elemental Blast
2xHurkyl's Recall
1xBoomerang
1xStifle

You can find all of my comments concerning the decks theory and card choices here, U/r Blood Moon Control (Pages 1 2 3 ) in the Vintage Forum.

How do you guys post links on these boards? Yes, I am a computer lamen ... give me a brake.\n\n

[wollblad]

The list posted is a I have poined out before a collection of good cards, but they lack the synnergy to make the deck really good. My testing shows that I often have a Scepter in hand but nothing to imprint. A common senario is that I have a Mana Drain and a Scepter. I play the Scepter and my opponent counters it but I cannot use the Mana Drain to protect it since then I have nothing to imprint. In my oppinion the deck needs a stronger draw engine to support 4 Scepters. Even if Accumulated Knowladge is used it is questionable if the deck supports 4 Scepters. I have also often experienced having Fire/Ice in hand and no Scepter. I play the Ice part and a few cards down I find a scepter, but now I have no instant to imprint because I cycled it away. What are your experience on this?

The sideboard looks stable. I am very happy to see that no off-colour cards are included just to be wished for and then imprinted. That works so seldom anyhow. As noted above, the decks hardest matchup is aggro and perhaps suicied. When the deck first showed up it had Flametongue Kavu in SB. Why not cut one Blood Moon (3 should be enough after sideboard) and a REB to fit in 2 FTK?

[BreathWeapon]

Quote (wollblad @ Dec. 11 2003,05:04)The list posted is a I have poined out before a collection of good cards, but they lack the synnergy to make the deck really good. My testing shows that I often have a Scepter in hand but nothing to imprint. A common senario is that I have a Mana Drain and a Scepter. I play the Scepter and my opponent counters it but I cannot use the Mana Drain to protect it since then I have nothing to imprint.

You answered your own question without realizing it. If your opponent Countered/Stifled the Scepter, then you effectively traded him 1 for 1. If your opponent FoWed the Scepter, you just got 2 for 1. Control can't afford to risk an active Scepter on the board in the control Mirror. It would be a brave man indeed who called your bluff in this scenario. Simply allow them to Counter the Scepter, unless your sure you can win the Counter War and Imprint the Scepter.

I know exactly what your saying when you comment on the deck lacking a sufficient Draw Engine to bring the deck together, and its true. However, what it does have is time and tempo to bring the deck together. This is where Bloodmoon and Stifle play such important roles in the deck. They are the cards that set up Mid Game Scepters. Without them, this deck would be wholey unplayable.

Now, i'm not sure you have read my numerous comments in the Vintage Forum thread, but the last thing I am working on is whether or not Morphling can be substituted for Future Sight, and Raise the Alarm can serve as a Wishable Kill Condition in the SB. As much as I like the idea, this deck isn't Hulk, a 10 Turn Combo Kill with a Fire/Ice or a 5 Turn Combo Kill with Raise the Alarm is dubious.\n\n

[Shivea]

Quote As noted above, the decks hardest matchup is aggro and perhaps suicied. When the deck first showed up it had Flametongue Kavu in SB.

FTK was used in conjunction with MD Control Magic to remove any serious threat.  KEgs did the clean-up work.  Don't forget that Mask, Ninja Mask, Sui, and Gro/GAT based decks were the general aggro decks of the period.  They were quite effective vs. wMUD, and only actually dead vs. Keeper.  Their toughness of 2 makes them worthless with Isochron Sceptor in the field (read: Fire/Ice).  It also replaced Control Magic in the Mirror, becasue it's not effected by REB's.  They also served as a very good gain of tempo vs Stompy, Fish, Sui, WW, etc....  Basically I'm saying there's not enough matchups where their impact would change the outcome of the game to make them worth the slots.


@BreathWeapon:  I still don't see how you can get by the first two rounds of any given tournament.  The build you have is fairly weak vs most of the aggro decks.  Even if a deck has a good win percentage vs the top decks, it doesn't matter if you can't get there.

I can tell that Future Sight serves as another 'path to victory' when you can't find a Sceptor or Blood Moon.  I believe this is very agreeable by most people.

Quote You answered your own question without realizing it. If your opponent Countered/Stifled the Scepter, then you effectively traded him 1 for 1.

Assuming that the counter used was Mana Drain (as no other 'real' counter is used anymore), that loss of tempo will end up ripping the game wide open for your opponent to step in and take charge.  Sceptor, in the control mirror, is a double edged sword.

Also, looking at a few Top 8's, I can see that Sceptor isn't very common.  In New England, I'll face up to three decks on any given day with Sceptors.  Blood Moon does not effect your Sceptor, and more importantly, your opponents.

[BreathWeapon]

The deck doesn't have problems with budget Aggro. It should put up a good fight vs Fish, Goblins and Suicide all around. The only problems the deck does have is against Stacker and Mask, but thankfuly FAT decks are adversely effected by Artifact Hate. 4 Fire/Ice and 4 Scepters is a lot for Aggro to deal with, and 2 Morphling just compound the problem for budget Aggro. It really isn't that difficult to get past your first 2 rounds with this deck. Amusingly, Pre-Restriction Madness was this decks easiest Aggro match up because of Stifle, its an unfortunate match loss.

If your opponent is playing Scepters in "The Chronic" with a 4 color Manabase, he is going to feel that Bloodmoon really hard. Yes, Scepter circumvents Bloodmoon, but what about the rest of his hand? An active Bloodmoon allows you to outmaneuver your opponent by having a fully playable hand incomparison to your opponent. It is actually a big deal regardless of Scepters ability to use Colorless Mana.

In the situation that you previously described for the Mana Drained Scepter, I can only assume that it has to be significantly later in the game for that to even occur. The 2cc the opponent gains on their turn should be really late into the game, so it wont be that significant.

The reason you don't see any Scepters in the top 8 yet is because the environment isn't ready for them to thrive. Long needs to leave before Scepter is wholely viable.

Scepters are for Jan 1st, so all of the playtesting and analysis I have put into them is pre-emptive. I'm also pretty sure that "The Chronic" has picked up a couple pieces of Jewelry before Jan 1st, and thats pretty impressive by itself.

[Shivea]

Bringing up Chronic relates two diffrent stragities.  It has a much better win condition, great utility, and better removal as well as Wish targets.  The only this it doesn't have is access to Blood Moon.

Is having access to Blood Moon really worth the loss of the other two colors in Chronic or 'Bring the Fuckin' Ruckus'?  It's not very hard to fit a basic Island into either of these decks mana bases.  BreathWeapon says.....

Quote The reason you don't see any Scepters in the top 8 yet is because the environment isn't ready for them to thrive. Long needs to leave before Scepter is wholely viable.

Perhaps this statistic proves that access to Blood Moon is not worth the loss of Black and White in Sceptor-based control.  Espically since Chronic and 'Fuckin' Ruckus' have had their fair share of high places in tournies in the NE meta.

Quote In the situation that you previously described for the Mana Drained Scepter, I can only assume that it has to be significantly later in the game for that to even occur. The 2cc the opponent gains on their turn should be really late into the game, so it wont be that significant.

I've seen many games be dicided by that senario.  We all know that the first three turns of every control mirror are the most intense.  The simple 2 extra mana your opponent gets could lead to a devastating loss of tempo for you.  Even if it's to cast a simple tutor, playing a dreaded 1CC Wish with two lands untapped, all the way up to fueling a Future Sight into play.  I wouldn't like my opponent to have that many options during such crucial turns.

[BreathWeapon]

The comment on The Chronic's success was more a generalization towards Scepter as a viable tournament weapon.

I haven't missed Black at all to tell you the truth. As much as Mind Twist and Yawgmoth's Will are broken and Demonic Tutor is flexible, Black really isn't offering any single card that is integral to your strategy. I play U/w/r Chronic, and I prefer it over Keeper based Chronic because it has the space for significant redundancey like 2x Gorilla Shaman, Decree of Justice and Future Sight, along with reduced chances of Color Screw and a Tolarian Academy to boot. In a world where Stifle is raping manabases, these small improvements are no laughing matter.

Morphling vs Decree of Justice isn't a big deal. The cool thing about Morphling is that NO ONE meta's for him. Decree likes to get Stifled or swallowed by a Powder Keg or locked down by Static Orb. He also uses Blue Mana instead of White, which is important in case of color screw, and pitches to FoW ... which I think is arguably better than the 1 card you get from Cycling Decree. His "Old School" beat down can be an advantage at times. He is by no meens as good as DoJ, but he really isn't much worse.

4xFire/Ice is arguably just as good as 3xFire/Ice and 2xSTP vs the Round 1 and 2 decks. There really isn't much of a difference here, other than having a noticable short coming vs Stacker and Mask ... which should be picked up later by the SB game 2, I.E. Hurkyl's is some good. However, Stacker and Mask aren't Round 1 and 2 decks anyway, so this point is superfilous. Any Budget Aggro deck, Goblins, that will give "The Chronic" problems will give "U/r Scepter" problems. Arguably the Chronic has better tools to deal with Aggro, Demonic Tutor and Mystical Tutor for Balance and an additional removal card, U/r Scepter can still put up a good fight.

So we get down to the real meat of the question, are my 3 Stfiles and 2 Bloodmoons better than your Future Sight(s), Yawgmoth's Will, MindTwist and Balance? Well, this is the question you have to be the judge of in your own Meta. If the answer is No, then obviously this is the wrong deck for you. However, I haven't met anyone yet who has admitted they wouldn't trade their Yawg Will for my Bloodmoon in the Control Mirror ... or haven't felt the wrath of Stifle on their Manabase.

In short, yes U/r Scepter will have more problems in the first 2 rounds than The Chronic. This is a sacrifice you will have to accept for the added win percentages against the Tier 1 decks. Its a trade off that many are willing to make, and this strategy has always been an integral part of U/r decks to begin with. If your not comfortable with that, play something else.