In poker, if we're talking about a "mid-range once a week slightly losing or break-even-ish player" becoming a "semi-pro who consistently wins 1-2 BB (big bets)/hr playing 20 hrs/week", that can totally happen within a 6-12 month timeframe if you are dedicated to it. I've seen it happen a couple dozen times at the $10-20 and $20-40 holdem levels (it happend with myself).
A 6-12 month time frame seems optimistic, but in any case, for magic I was thinking of considerably less time and dedication that is required to achieve competency.
In my opinion, the amount of time and level of dedication required to be competitive at high levels are vastly different in most sports/games compared to magic.
keep hearing this "playskill" word used and what I define "playskill" as is:
Knowing all the top decks' gameplans
knowing matchup details
knowing how to sideboard for important matchups
These are part of it, but lets not forget something more fundamental - understanding how to play your deck effectively and without error.
JDL sent me a PM almost the exact same thing as your last sentance, but for the most part, "playing your deck effectively and without error" is really only relevant with respect to sitting down in front of an opponent and knowing what your gameplan is against their deck (once it becomes known), not "how to play your deck" without an opponent. Obviously knowing the basic strategies and all the options available is quite important (esp for a deck like say Dragon), but "playing without error and effectively" can't really be determined without first establishing what you're playing against.
With regards to 6-12 months for poker, I'm assuming a sharp person with a good aptitude for knowing how to learn, and that's very doable, esp at a B&M casino (vs online).
I think the reason that Type 1 has a lower "barrier to become good" if you will than games like Poker or Magic is:
1. Money - prizes for Chess and Poker tournaments are big stuff, enough that there are plenty of people who can do it for a living. The prizes in Magic pale in comparison, esp Type 1. There are also fewer ways to make a living doing things like writing about Magic (either books, magazines, etc) than there are poker or chess. Think about how many copies of things like Sklansky & Malmuth books or Ruben Fine's "Basic Chess endings" (or any of the other standards) get sold as opposed to Magic books. Best case scenario, a well know "pro" (who say wins $20,000 in prize money a year for a year or two) gets hired by WoTC. That pales to what pros make in poker or chess.
2. Higher levels of thinking are not as important in Type 1 vs poker or chess. Level 1 thinking is thinking about your own cards. Level 2 thinking is thinking about what your opponent's cards are. Level 3 is thinking about what the opponent thinks about you. Basically level 3 thinking is what differentiates great poker players from simply good players - not only narrowing down the range of hands they could have, but also using what they think of you to extract more $ from them or lose less $ if they are ahead.
3. Decks are pre-built and luck is higher in a game of magic vs poker or chess because of the way the partial information grows. In chess, there is no partial information - it's all out there for both players to see, board and clock. In poker, the only hidden information (using Holdem as that's the most common form of poker these days) is the initial 2 starting cards for the players. The rest of the cards that come are all visible to the other players (a similar arguement holds for stud with the exception of the final face down card). But compare those to Magic, where EVERY card starts out hidden and the only way the opponent sees the card is if you play it or they have something like Duress. In addition, a new hidden card is drawn each turn. So couple that with the fact that Magic uses a pre-built deck (which means mediocre players can still start with great decks) and it allows for a quicker closing of the gap from average to good.
