[Discussion] Looking Towards Summer

[paradigm]

As most expected, nothing changed from the recent B/R announcement, which is both a good and bad thing. Regardless, it's time to look forward to the summer's metagame.

With that in mind, will the metagame change at all before Gencon and the major tournaments, or will it stay the way it is now? As Cron noted, things are not set in stone for the major tournaments. The board is set and the pieces are moving.

Have you found 5D cards to toss into decks to improve their quality, and do you expect any new decks or improved decks to make a ripple this summer, when many of the major tournaments occur?

With Hulk and Slaver versions currently occupying tier one, is there a way decks can react to shake things up (while no one deck is winning tournaments in a dominant manner, certain decks are top eighting more than others, of which Hulk is a clear culprint)?

This is the time of year for type one to make their mark on the MTG's general crowd, and to erase unpleasant memories of the misplays of GenCon '03.

[Klep]

Fifth Dawn hasn't really offered up anything to change the meta, so barring someone unearthing some powerful undiscovered old tech, the meta is likely going to remain the same until Kamigawa is released.

Therefore, instead of newly emerging decks finding their way into the meta, I expect that we will see the current widely-diverse meta settle down, with people filtering in to one of the few decks at the top of the field, and unnecessary decks like Landstill losing popularity.  I also suspect we will be able to answer the question of which of the two Slaver builds is better, with one falling by the wayside.

That said, I honestly expect that we will see 4C Control emerge as one of the strongest decks in the format (possibly even up near Tog and Slaver), particularly if it manages to stay under the metagame radar as it seems to have been doing so far.  From what I can tell, though many people recognize the potency of 4C Control, few are altering their metagame considerations to deal with this new threat, and Tog and Slaver are still bearing the brunt of everyone's sideboards.   Not having the hate of the format aimed at it, and having appropriate cards to deal with the threats posed by the format, I anticipate 4C Control having a strong summer.

As to what will win GenCon, it's too early to say.  I can merely hope that the field will be more competetive this year, and that the players will overall be better and more used to lengthy events.

[rozetta]

I tend to agree that there haven't been many new cards released with the potential of creating new decks good enough to beat the existing crop. There have been a couple of cards which may add to existing archetypes.

The more I try it, the more I'm liking night's whisper in any combo deck playing dark rituals. I guess people having been having luck with it in GAT, too. Out of all the cards in this new set, this seems like the one with the most promise.

I'm not all that fond of serum visions now that I've tried it out.

I don't think Krark-Clan Ironworks can create a deck which will goldfish faster than belcher, but I'd love to be proved wrong.

The regrowth elf might have possibilities in some deck, maybe of the Oshawa Stompy ilk or in a deck with Skullclamp.

It would be nice to see Gencon won by something other than tog this year

[rvs]

Even if the 5D cards have potential and are good enough, they probably won't see much play until GenCon. I'm sure the people attending (and the teams in specific) will keep their tech 'under wraps' as long as possible.

[kl0wn]

As most expected, nothing changed from the recent B/R announcement, which is both a good and bad thing. Regardless, it's time to look forward to the summer's metagame.

While nothing is out of control, which is good, it would also speak, in part, to the stagnation of the format.

Wait, so you're saying that since nothing's been banned or restricted this time around, the format is stagnant? That's a really bad way to measure stagnation, chum. I'd say it's more accurate to say the format is healthy.

[Triple_S]

There are 3 "major" tournaments state-side in the next 3 months:  Raleigh, Richmond, and GenCon.  I find it VERY unlikely that new tech will spring forth from the major stateside teams (Meandeck, TSB, Hadley, etc) unless it is played at one of these tournaments.  Is post-5D testing going on?  Hell yes, TSB is working on it and I'm sure most other people are too.  But I don't think the fruits of this work will be seen before late June/early July at the earliest.

[Kowal]

You forgot Origins at Columbus Ohio.

I'm sure everyone has a little bit of tech, but...

If these ideas haven't been exposed to the public, testing is only being done within the team.  Because of time constraints, those decks can't be tested against the worse decks of the format, which will show up in full force because of the lack of proxy legalization.

So I wouldn't be surprised if most of the 'good' players get knocked out of the competition by some really suboptimal players with suboptimal decks.

[Eastman]

The format is far from stagnant.

The idea that we've figured out the best card combinations is absolute fallicy - there's a lot of work yet to be done.

[Triple_S]

Ahh, but 2-3 months allows for a lot of games to test ideas against the likes of Sui Black and Parfait

[Tristal]

With major state-side tournaments coming up this summer, I think their results will have some impact on the metagame.  If Kobold-Carnival of Souls-Clamp wins a tournament, that doesn't make it a good deck, but it sure does get people to play it.

[jpmeyer]

"Stagnant" is the new "innovation."

I mean, I've gotta agree with Kl0wn here.  The fact that nothing is broken and it's pretty clear which decks are good and which decks are not makes the format healthy, not stagnant.

[Thug]

People will disagree with me, but I don't think there are just two tier 1 decks (or whatever you like to call it if you already explode when you read the word "tier").

One of the main reasons why Tog and Control Slaver have won a good amount of tournaments if because the decks get played by a lot of players, and by the majority of the good players.

This has been said before, but if only two or more slightly talented people focus on a deck it can often be made very competative. This makes the format very healthy IMO since this has not always been the case.

The only thing I expect from 5D is that some better Skullclamp decks will pop up. And off course Crucible still needs to be broken (though I'm getting pretty close IMO)

As rudy already mentioned, don't be surprised when Gencon brings one or two new archetypes.

Koen

[MuzzonoAmi]

I agree that GenCon will bring a few new archetypes, and some big revisions to old ones.

But I'm starting to wonder about Slaver. There were 2 Sweedish T8s last month that had $T4KS where one would expect Slaver. Is this related to a localized metagame difference in Sweeden as compared to the rest of Europe? Or is this a sign that Slaver may be more of a niche deck than we once thought?

[jpmeyer]

What are the links to those two?  I only saw one Swedish T8 on morphling.de from last month and there were 3 Slaver decks in the T8.

[MuzzonoAmi]

Sorry, I misread the tourney report. The decks wern't T8. Thanks for pointing that out.

[Dozer]

Have you found 5D cards to toss into decks to improve their quality, and do you expect any new decks or improved decks to make a ripple this summer, when many of the major tournaments occur?

Yes, and yes. As the testing is on its way, I think most teams will cover tech until the next appropriate big tournament. The tech is most definitely out there. Apart from the Ironwork-decks, which appear not to be fast enough, no new decks stick out from 5D yet, but it delivered tools for some improvement.

I agree with Klep concerning 4cControl, since 5D has tools that appear tailormade for 4c. Crucible is one of them. I believe not everybody will like it,  since it is admittedly conditional. But it is a strong tool, especially given the fact that reusable land destruction is at least annoying for Hulk and Slaver. Used correctly, it will decide a couple of games. Sometimes, it just functions as a "win-more"-card, sometimes it does what it is IMO supposed to do: working as a midgame tempo breaker or accelerator. I do not see the Crucible or Ironworks combo deck emerging, but I might be wrong.
I expect to see some Quirion Dryads this summer, because there are enough people out there who will try Serum Visions and/or Night's Whisper in GAT. Sheer numbers alone should put some Quirion Dryads in more than one T8.

Also, since testing is underway in most teams, I mostly expect existing archetypes to get more refined this summer, and I do expect some major developments and improvements in that regard. The question is, who is going to publish first, and which summer tournament will be the "big tech show"?
Are any of the teams waiting for a special event, or are they going to bust out at the first big tournament, even before GenCon?
Do ze Germans still have something on their plate?
Will GenCon '04 see plays of the day or plays gone astray?
Wait and see to experience "Metagame Summer 2004"!
Coming to a Vintage tournament near you!
Don't miss it!


Dozer

[Mykeatog]

Saying that there are no fifth dawn cards worth testing is proving the rest of the world right; Type One players just don't understand anything. While we are on the topic-- let's get over eternal witness, it sucks. I mean-- it is a nice cool card and what-not, but it isn't a good card in type 1. For the record, everyone should have alread known that.

As mentioned previously, there is nothing wrong with the format at the moment. What we are about to see is the most competative summer in Vintage history. Never before have so many people been trying so hard to make the 'new-best-latest-tech', and never before has our format innovated so fast.

Could the summer just be Tog vs. Slaver? Sure, but that doesn't mean that it will be. Could this be the best season vintage has ever had? I strongly think so, and I will be in attendance at all of the afformentioned tournaments loving every moment of it.

[MuzzonoAmi]

I've been throwing alot of different stuff at Hulk trying to find a deck to play for the summer, and I've come to the same conclusion as Kowal. Namely, that it just isn't up to snuff. GAT is the better Tog deck at the moment, largely because it has a strong kill in Quirion Dryad that isn't killed by the most ubiquitus Sideboard card in the format, and isn't utterly destroyed by Slavery. I see Slavery, various forms of artifact based beatdown, and Germbus emerging as the top decks, with the 3 combo decks (FCG, Draw7, and Belcher) defining the second teir.

[Kerz]

I strongly supports Myke's claim that this will be the best Vintage season yet. With Type One gaining more and more force and recognition as a format, it can only mean that this Con season- more specifically GenCon- will be the biggest ever. We have tons more people working with us than one year ago, and its not showing any sign of stopping. The tournaments can only get bigger.

As for what decks will be hits, I feel that there are a TON of sleepers that will awaken for these tournaments. Old favorites will be back in new forms with new bombs, while the overlooked archetypes that havn't been optimized yet will be showing up in their best form. I'm really excited for this summer.

[Pyromaniac]

I've been throwing alot of different stuff at Hulk trying to find a deck to play for the summer, and I've come to the same conclusion as Kowal. Namely, that it just isn't up to snuff. GAT is the better Tog deck at the moment, largely because it has a strong kill in Quirion Dryad that isn't killed by the most ubiquitus Sideboard card in the format, and isn't utterly destroyed by Slavery. I see Slavery, various forms of artifact based beatdown, and Germbus emerging as the top decks, with the 3 combo decks (FCG, Draw7, and Belcher) defining the second teir.

The 3 combo decks? Isn't Dragon a combo deck anymore, or has everyone started ignoring it?

Anyways, as me and a few other people from the netherlands will probably come to Gencon this summer, we might bring some savage new tech with us

[MuzzonoAmi]

Not as savage as the tech some of us are working on here. But for Dragon, I'm not sure if it is going to be very strong yet. It seems to have reached its maximum potential whereas the other combos are still being optimized, and they're about as strong as Dragon is already.

[rvs]

Not as savage as the tech some of us are working on here. But for Dragon, I'm not sure if it is going to be very strong yet. It seems to have reached its maximum potential whereas the other combos are still being optimized, and they're about as strong as Dragon is already.

Well, trusting in words from someone who says GAT is the better Tog deck.... I wouldn't count on anything you say.

[Wollblad]

But I'm starting to wonder about Slaver. There were 2 Sweedish T8s last month that had $T4KS where one would expect Slaver. Is this related to a localized metagame difference in Sweeden as compared to the rest of Europe? Or is this a sign that Slaver may be more of a niche deck than we once thought?

Even though you made a misstake reading the T8 lists, you are right. In May we had two more large tournaments with 79 and 105 persons respectively. The top 8 decks were:
3 Stax
3 Control Slaver
1 Dragon
1 Land Still

and

1 Stax
1 U/r-Scepter Control
1 Germbus
2 Landstill
1 TnT/Mask hybrid
1 GAT
1 Control Slaver

No Workshop Slaver at all! This is a result of a non-proxy meta game. People owning only partial power build decks like Fish, Nether Void, EBA and all add full complement of Null Rods. Control Slaver can handle this thanks to main deck Gorilla Shaman and Cunning Wish, but Workshop Slaver just fails a little to often. In an environment with much Null Rod, Stax is a more stable choice which obviously works well. I guess GenCon will be non-proxy, so an interesting question is, will those who not own full or nearly full power realize that Null Rod increases there chanses of sucess or will they just build suboptimal versions of Tog, GAT and Keeper?