Dark Confidant - Just another weenie?

[warble]

With the coming of Ravnica comes not only a set of "dual lands" that take your life, but a new draw engine that drains your life according to the threat level that you draw.  Specifically, I am talking about the newest 2/1 for B1 creature that draws an extra card every upkeep, Dark Confidant.  Is this just a new weenie, too small to be stable, or can this new creature change the face of vintage?

Yes, I know, anyone who says vintage will change with a new set is obviously lying to themselves.  Dark Confidant will find lava dart succeptability the same way that goblin welder did in his day.  The questions I have are

1) Will it be possible to play Dark Confidant as a draw engine in conjunction with a mixed gifts/thirst engine, or does it justify an entirely new deck?

2) What deck will break dark confidant the most effectively?  Will a control deck with Dark Confidant just lose to the constant life-loss?  Will a TPS-style deck with added portal tutors be able to make better use of this than draw7's?  Will fish's newest weapon teach control a final lesson about early-turn domination?

It is my personal opinion that the fish with maindeck null rod shell offers the best protection to dark confidant.  Packing 9 counters and suitable early disruption as well as wastes helps take care of the succeptability to StP and burn.  In addition, as the life loss will be minimized because of cc(5 Force/MisD are the only pain here) and null rod can effectively slow down the early game, the card advantage offered by Confidant will actually be useful instead of long-awaited gains that aren't really relevant in the case of TPS.  The real issue is succeptability to burn, in my mind, and because of that WTF may be a better option.  Is Ninja of the Deep Hours enough of a powerhouse to support fish, or can dark confidant and the ninja co-exist?  Would a more consistent clock like flying men be a "safer bet" or should the aggro mirror for fish be discounted and the matchups against CS and gifts be of greater concern (in which case fish with dark confidant is almost too beautiful to describe).  I'd like to hear what people are planning with the newest draw engine to hit type 1.

Also, if Dimir Guildmage, a 2/2 for U/B U/B is being considered more heavily I would love to discuss plans that people have for him as well.  With the added 1 toughness, but the 4 mana cost for either draw or discard, he has his advantages and disadvantages.

[forests failed you]

I would definitely expect to see Dark Confidant seeing some play in UB Fish.  Sure he is a liability, but really only against FCG.  As Steve has already pointed out, 20 life is way to many in Vintage and thus it is a player's most valuable resource. 

I see no reason why Vialing this guy down would be a bad thing.  Chances are at a major tournament playing UB Fish, you will be the beatdown.  Thus your life total = irrelevant.

[Clown of Tresserhorn]

Not only that, but this card + top (or even brainstorm) is pretty sick. UB fish is looking mad good with toys like mistblade shinobi/withered wretch/skullsnatcher/dark confidant.

[forests failed you]

That is true.  My standard deck is designed around Top COnfidant Synergy. Being able to play Top and Vial in this deck would be much better than Null Rod.

[warble]

Interesting take, with top you can remove the painful life loss from dark confidant.  With that take, the control aspect of dark confidant becomes a lot stronger.  I may have to rethink the optimal deck I'm putting dark confidant in!
Is it a given that confidant belongs with top?  I agree the life loss is a big factor for control decks like CS, so if run in CS I would definitely put a few tops in.  However, with fish I would guess you don't really want top anymore, because it's so mana-intensive early-on.  Confidant already strengths the long-game so much I don't really know how much of a boost having top could possibly provide that null rod would be inferior at.  After all, I'd rather have rod restricting the extra spells/shutting of mindslaver/triskelion then top myself into an extra force of will.  Is this just me?

[Xenoben187]

I can see this guy almost creating a new archetype draw engine.  With Telling Time and Brainstorm you wouldn't even need to play top.  Even Serum Visions looks pretty damn good with this guy.  One archetype I could definitely see him jumping into easily is EBA with the only big dudes you could possibly draw being exalteds and forces.

[twiggy]

I would not be surprised at all to see him get some play.  Confidant loves cards like brainstorm and he really likes chains (see my post over in the black fish thread).

As far as Dimir Guildmage goes... WGD maybe?  Four mana isn't that much of a concern when you are combo'ing out.  Mind twisting the opponent, drawing your deck, and milling your opponent out seems pretty fun to me.