TMD 10 STRATFORD (Waterbury :p) TOP 16 PREDICTION CONTEST!11!

[Dxfiler]

Alright, here's the drill.  You make a list of 16 people who you feel will end up 1-16 in order at Waterbury.  Points will be calculated based on finish.  Getting the order right helps in the event of tiebreaks, but you really want to correctly guess as many top 16 finishers as possible.  Points will be distributed as follows: 

1st-                   10 points
2nd-                   8  points
3rd/4th-              6  points
5-8th-                 4 points
9th-12th-            2 points
13th-16th-          1 point

To make it more interesting, if you pick anyone with an optional round 1 bye to be on your list and they place, it's an auto 1 point deduction.  If you pick someone with an automatic round 1 bye on your list, it's a 2 point deduction if they finish top 16.  Just a refresher:

PAID FOR BYES: (automatic)
Previous TMD OPEN Day 1 Winner: Rich Meyst
Previous TMD OPEN Day 2 Winner: Tommy Kolowith

BYES THAT CAN BE BOUGHT: (optional)
TMD OPEN 9 Day 1: Joel Brauer
TMD OPEN 9 Day 1: Ben Kowal
TMD OPEN 9 Day 1: Dave Feinstein
TMD OPEN 9 Day 1: Rob Costanza
TMD OPEN 9 Day 1: Roger Sorino
TMD OPEN 9 Day 1: Justin Timoney
TMD OPEN 9 Day 1: Roland Chang
TMD OPEN 9 Day 2: Ben Carp
TMD OPEN 9 Day 2: Jeremiah Rudolph
TMD OPEN 9 Day 2: Jess Fico


Change/Orlove benefit 8-6-06: Kyle Leith
Blue Bell Double Blue Power 8-19-06: Mike(Midknight)(please tell me your last name)
Myriad Games 8-19-06: Joe Colon
GENCON-Worlds: Travis Spero
GENCON-Worlds: Robert Vroman
GENCON-Worlds: Paul Mastriano
GENCON-Worlds: Paul Nicolo
GENCON-Worlds: Nick Trudeau
GENCON-Wolrds: David Cohen
GENCON-Worlds: Arend
GENCON-$500: Matt Abold
SCG Boston 9-16-06: Jeff Greene
SCG Boston 9-16-06: Simon MacRae
SCG Boston 9-16-06: Matt Bailey
SCG Boston 9-16-06: Vincent Forino
SCG Boston 9-17-06: Mike Pise
SCG Boston 9-17-06: Mike Herbig
SCG Boston 9-17-06: Ashok Chitturi
SCG Boston 9-17-06: Mike Hetherington
Myriad Games 9-30-06: Dan Cunningham/Pat Broderick Split(which means you guys must fight to the death over who gets the bye)
Myriad Games 11-11-06: Eric Dupuis
ELD's Tourney 12-02-06: Dan Yarrington
Myriad Games 12-09-06: Demonic Attorney
SCG Roanoke 11-18-06: Jeff Floinus
SCG Roanoke 11-19-06: Cody Vinci
Pastimes 12-09-06: Dan Carp 

So if you pick anyone on this list (and that includes if it gets updated by Ray later) and they place, it's an auto deduction of 1 point per person.  If you pick Tommy Kolowith or Rich Meyst to top 16 and they do, it's 2 points off.  If you were to pick both and they both top 16, it's a 4 point deduction.  It doesn't matter if your pick ends up not paying for a bye, since the majority of who is up there are likely to get picked by alot of people since that's a pretty fierce list.  The idea is to have diverse lists.

TEH PRIZE: UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME :p  It will be worthwhile and it will go to more than one person.  I'm personally going to dedicate something of value, it has yet to be determined.  I have the backing of the VA/Mod staff and they pledged to provide some kind of support as well.  When we figure out what prizes are, you will know.  I wanted to get the ball rolling now since the event is less than two weeks away.

This contest is open to full members and under.  Mods/VA's can certainly post predictions but they will not be counted towards prize.  Only final top 16 results from day one are counted, since that's the grandaddy event.

The idea is to have fun and promote the event.  Don't turn this into an ego war, just list the damn names :p 

Good luck.

- Dave Feinstein


*BONUS SECTION- THE LIST I WOULD HAVE IF I ENTERED MY OWN CONTEST.*

1.  TK (point deduction be damned!)
2. Osyp Lebedowicz
3. Eric Becker
4. Mike Herbig
5. Mike Hetherington
6. Dan Carp
7. Colby Evenpence
8. Jeff Folinus

9. Pat Broderick
10. Andy Probasco
11. Stefan Ellsworth
12. Ben Carp
13. Roland Chang
14. Demonic Attorney
15. Mike Flores
16. Me :p

[Jacob Orlove]

So wait, what happens to my point total if my picks go like this (where "Xth place" is shorthand for "whoever actually finishes in Xth place"):
1) 16th place
2) 15th place
...
16) 1st place

Would I get no points, because none of my picks match their final spot? Would I get full points, because I picked the entire top 16? Would I get points for picks #9-16, because all of those people did at least that well (and if so, how many points would I get?)?

I'm just not clear on how our ordering of the players affects our score.

[Dxfiler]

I'm just not clear on how our ordering of the players affects our score.

It occured to me while in the shower that I didn't clarify on that :p 

Order is for tiebreaks only.  The idea is to pick as many names as possible accurately for top 16.  If your #16 choice actually wins the whole thing, you'll get the full 10 points (assuming it isn't somebody with a bye, if it is less points would be awarded).  Conversely, if your pick for 5th place got 9th place, you'd get two points instead of four.  Correct order helps if there ends up being a tie for total points among people.  Order probably won't matter in the end but who knows.

Happy Picking (and New Year)

- Dave Feinstein

 

[Smmenen]

*BONUS SECTION- THE LIST I WOULD HAVE IF I ENTERED MY OWN CONTEST.*

2. Osyp Lebedowicz

15. Mike Flores

Do you know if Osyp and Flores are coming?  Or is that speculation?  Why would you enter names in your list you don't know are coming or not?

[SonataOfTheCathedral]

I think it is generally understood that they decided they won't show. Flores changed his mind or something.

1- Elias Vaisberg
2- TK
3- Mike Hetherington
4- Jeff Folinus
5- Steve Sadin
6- Dan Carp
7- Ben Carp
8- Chris Nighbor
9- Dave Feinstein...
10- Josh Meckes
11- Rich Meyst
12- Joe Davis
13- Eric Becker
14- FFY
15- Paul Mastriano
16- David Bowie

[Dxfiler]

Do you know if Osyp and Flores are coming?  Or is that speculation?  Why would you enter names in your list you don't know are coming or not?

Why do you care?  :p

I almost put the enitre roster of the 1990 Dream Team up there. 

I had heard Osyp/Flores were coming, so I decided to put them on my list for fun.  It doesn't matter if my list is accurate or not, I listed it as an example.  I'm not entering my own contest.  You're more than welcome to make your own list, and you should... as you are eligible for prizes and they will be good ones.

@Elias- I can't believe I missed David Bowie.  He's the hands down winner.

- Dave Feinstein

[Smmenen]

Do you know if Osyp and Flores are coming?  Or is that speculation?  Why would you enter names in your list you don't know are coming or not?

Why do you care?  :p

 Isn't that "newsworthy" if Flores shows up at a major t1 event?   

Not only should I care, but I would think that the whole Vintage community would be interested in such news.   Osyp played T1 at the SCG Shooting Stars, but as far as we know, Flores hasn't really given the format a chance and tends to badmouth it (from what we've heard).   


The question isn't why do I care, but why Wouldn't I Care?

I almost put the enitre roster of the 1990 Dream Team up there. 

I asked in all seriousness because you wrote:

BONUS SECTION- THE LIST I WOULD HAVE IF I ENTERED MY OWN CONTEST.*

That implies, at the least, that you were serious about your list, contrary to what you just said.   I mean, you put together what ostensibly was intended to be a serious list.   You had successul individuals like TK, etc in your list. 

In fact, it looks like your thinking about who might do well may have even inspired your idea for this contest.   Why wouldn't I take your list seriously?   There was nothing in it to leave the suggestion or even a hint of a suggestion that it was farce.   

I had heard Osyp/Flores were coming, so I decided to put them on my list for fun.  It doesn't matter if my list is accurate or not, I listed it as an example.  I'm not entering my own contest. 

I don't believe I ever criticized the accuracy of your list, did I?   I was simply wondering if Osyp and Flores were coming - a rather innocent question.   

You're more than welcome to make your own list, and you should... as you are eligible for prizes and they will be good ones.

I will, but I"m going to put some thought into it.   

Evidently, you guys have heard more than I have about who may or may not be coming.   Not being sure exactly who is going to show up puts me at a disadvantage, but I will nonetheless put in a good faith effort to construct a list.

Thanks for putting this contest together.

Stephen Menendian

[Kowal]

1) Kowal
2) Azhrei
3) Zherbus
4) Kerz
5) Eastman
6) BilltheDuck
7) Thorme
8) Sliverking
9) SolaranX
10) MolotDET
11) RicFlair
12) Toast
13) Mykeatog
14) hulk3rules
15) kl0wn
16) ill_dawg


I personally guarantee each of these people will make top 32.

[Vegeta2711]

1. Random
2. Random
3. Random
4. Random
5. Random
6. Random
7. Random
8. Random
9. Random
10. Random
11. Random
12. Random
13. Random
14. Random
15. Random
16. Random

I'm pretty sure I nailed at least 12 of the 16.

Isn't that "newsworthy" if Flores shows up at a major t1 event?   

No?

[Smmenen]

Isn't that "newsworthy" if Flores shows up at a major t1 event?   

No?

Why would you say that?   

I can think of many reasons why that would be of interest (the definition of news), but virtually no reason why it wouldn't be of interest to people. 

[dicemanx]

I'd love to see Flores in action in a T1 event. Ideally, he should pilot Stax (since Flores is of the opinion that it is the best deck in the format), but somehow I don't think he would end up doing very well - perhaps he'd do as well as Zvi did back in the Shooting Stars event.

[Vegeta2711]

Isn't that "newsworthy" if Flores shows up at a major t1 event?   

No?

Why would you say that?   

I can think of many reasons why that would be of interest (the definition of news), but virtually no reason why it wouldn't be of interest to people. 

He's one guy. Not even a great player. I know a lot of people love him as a theorist, and I won't even get into my own issues with him, but in the grand scheme of things it's only news for one of three reasons.

1. More chest thumping by Vintage players if he did badly.
2. He does well and either praises / trashes the format.
3. I get to read a lot of angry comments from Flores apologists.

[dicemanx]

1. More chest thumping by Vintage players if he did badly.
2. He does well and either praises / trashes the format.
3. I get to read a lot of angry comments from Flores apologists.

Flores playing will create drama in one way or another, and many of us love drama .

[Smmenen]

Isn't that "newsworthy" if Flores shows up at a major t1 event?   

No?

Why would you say that?   

I can think of many reasons why that would be of interest (the definition of news), but virtually no reason why it wouldn't be of interest to people. 

He's one guy. Not even a great player. I know a lot of people love him as a theorist, and I won't even get into my own issues with him, but in the grand scheme of things it's only news for one of three reasons.

1. More chest thumping by Vintage players if he did badly.
2. He does well and either praises / trashes the format.
3. I get to read a lot of angry comments from Flores apologists.

I think you are missing alot of other reasons why it is newsworthy - reasons why Shooting Stars was newsworthy:

1) People would be interested to see what deck he plays.
2) It would tell us what he thinks about the format -- pre-tournament views.
3) If he came to play, he would presumably write about it and give his opinions, post tournament, on the format and the community - as Osyp did.
4) People at the tournament would presumably like to meet Flores (at least a few people, I would guess).  It would be fun.
5) As peter mentioned, drama is interesting.   
6) And if Flores did well, there would be chest thumping the other way, no?

As it stands, I can't think of a single reason why Flores playing wouldn't be newsworthy and plenty of reason why he would.

And those reasons I've just enumerated were off the top of my head.  I'm sure I could think of more if I put thought into it. 

[Dxfiler]

I think this thread is off topic.  If Mike shows, he shows.  If he doesn't, he doesn't.

Please guys, take it to pm from here on out.

- Dave Feinstein

[Klep]

1.Jon Adkins      
2.Adam Bostick    
3.Ambiorix Burgos    
4.Pedro Feliciano    
5.Tom Glavine
6.Aaron Heilman    
7.Orlando Hernandez    
8.Philip Humber    
9.John Maine
10.Pedro Martinez    
11.Guillermo Mota    
12.Juan Padilla    
13.Mike Pelfrey    
14.Oliver Perez    
15.Duaner Sanchez    
16.Steve Schmoll    

[Jacob Orlove]

Very funny, guys. Let's give the eligible contestants a chance to make serious entries, okay? No more irrelevant lists, no more discussion of Flores.

[amidtownrocker]

Im glad you brought this back Dave, great idea.

Here we go:

1. Rich Meyst (I just have too)
2. TK
3. Dave Feinstein
4. Brassman
5. Travis Laplante
6. Evenpence
7. FFY
8. Crossman Wilkins
9. Ross Merriam
10. Elias (not even going to attempt the last name)
11. Eric Becker
12. Dan Yarrington
13. Ben Carp
14. Dan Carp
15. Osyp Lebalphabetica
16. Outlaw

[iamfishman]

The bye list has been updated...of note...I messed up...because of attendance from the last TMD Open more slots handed down then I had previously recorded.

Of note:
TMD OPEN 9 Day 1: Rob Costanza
TMD OPEN 9 Day 1: Roger Sorino
TMD OPEN 9 Day 1: Justin Timoney
TMD OPEN 9 Day 1: Roland Chang

TMD OPEN 9 Day 2: Jeremiah Rudolph
TMD OPEN 9 Day 2: Jess Fico

have been added.

[Demonic Attorney]

I would do another of my patented obscure celebrity lists, but I want to encourage people, especially Basic Users, to give this a serious shot.  I think TMD stands to benefit from these contests because they shed light on how accurate the community's collective assessments of talent and ability are.  Along those lines, I want to propose that everyone who posts from here on out include a guess after this list as to whether a Moderator, VA, Full Member, or Basic/New User will end up winning this contest.  No one has to do it, but I'm curious to see if people think a long-standing history of involvement on TMD gives people a basis to make accurate assessments of ability, or if it just bogs them down in a mire of politics, team loyalty, and popularity contests.

As for my list,

1.  TK
2.  Arend
3.  Dxfiler
4.  TheBrassMan
5.  wuaffiliate
6.  Changster
7.  Demonic Attorney
8.  Nantuko Rice
9.  MeddlingMage
10. the spooky kid
11. Herbig
12. Outlaw
13. Nefarias
14. CrazyCarl
15. JuggernautGO
16. TheDeadMan

I think a Full Member will end up winning this contest.

[forests failed you]

1 Windfall
2 onelovemachine
3 liek
4 changster
5 tk
6 brassman
7 kowal
8 ffy
9 outlaw
1o dxfiler
11 juggernaut go
12 eric becker
13 special k
14 dicemanx
15 elias
16 the spooky kid

  I will be at this event, you are all so pwnd.

[SonataOfTheCathedral]

These lists might turn into huge upsets, if the Ichorid buzz is correct.

[Evenpence]

I can't go because of work.  Still love you guys though.  Still love you guys.

I would have gotten 14th though.  OBVOBVOBVOBVOBVOBVOBV.

[forests failed you]

What's an Ichorid?

I'm playing Grim Long/

BTW, does anybody have Grim Tutors I can borrow for day one?  LOL

[Methuselahn]

I think a Forum Adept will win it.

0   Forum Adept a
1   Meddling Mage
2   SpecialK
3   Wuaffiliate
4   Demonic Attorney
5   Chang
6   TK
7   Outlaw
8   seroogy
9   kyle leith
A  Carp
B  Carp
C  Laplante
D  Codi Vinci
E  Machinus
F  I@n degraff

[Moxlotus]

Not that I am eligible but...

1. Brian Fisher.
2. Tommy
3. Mat Endress (Eric would have 3rd place locked...but he's not going)
4. Brian Demars
5. Tommy
6. Feinstein
7. Steve
8.  Jeff Folinus
9. Kevin Folinus
10. Cody Vinci
11. Albert Kyle
12. Kowal
13. Timoney
14. Chad Behre
15. Dan Yarrington
16. Mike Jones

A full member will win it.

[Gaagooch]

Here is my list for top 16:

1. Gaagooch
2. The Ross
3. Outlaw
4. Crossman Wilkins
5. Brassman
6. Travis Laplantee
7. Dave Feinstein
8. TK
9. Demonic Attorney
10. Meddling Mage
11. Carl Winter
12. Rich Meyst
13. Brian Demars
14. Changster
15. Kowal
16. Dan Yarrington

Now that I've decided that I'm winning straterbury, I have to decide what deck I'm going to play.  Good luck to all.

Since I decided I'm winning due to missing the last waterbury, that means a basic user will win.  At which point I might actually finish my membership exam, but I'm just so damn lazy...

[Eastman]

4) Kerz
6) BilltheDuck
10) MolotDET
11) RicFlair
13) Mykeatog
14) hulk3rules
15) kl0wn
16) ill_dawg


I personally guarantee each of these people will make top 32.

You missed Pern

[Outlaw]

1. Outlaw
2. Brassman
3. Cross
4. Andy Farius
5. TK
6. D-FINE
7. Rollin Chang
8. Elias
9. FFY
10. Herbig
11. Rich Meyst
12. Travis LaPlante
13. Mat Endress
14. CrazyCarl
15. GaGooch
16. Stefan Barnsworth

[T00L]

16. Stefan Barnsworth

finally some love