TMD 10 STRATFORD (Waterbury :p) TOP 16 PREDICTION CONTEST!11!

[ErkBek]

So I won't be making this thing anymore, but JDizzle will now likely be going. So here's my list

Fisher
Endress
JDizzle
Demars
TK
Stephan Menendian
Jeff Folinus
Dan Carp
I@n Degraff
Nantuko Rice
Cody Vinci
Outlaw
Herbig
Mike Hetherington
Rich Meyst
DicemanX

[Windfall]

1 Windfall
2 onelovemachine
.
.
.
8 ffy
.
.
.
16 the spooky kid

  I will be at this event, you are all so pwnd.

#1 Obv obv obv
#2 Clearly he's not going, so he can't win.
#8 Disagree.  Based on your final statement, and based on Josh's absense, I would put you at second place.  =)
#16 Ben Perry's going?  I did not know that.

Anyway, the point of this post: I look forward to seeing everyone; it's been far too long.  But as we all know, I stepped out.  I did not step down.

[Imsomniac101]

If you are unable to attend Waterbury, are you still eligible for the prize?

[Dxfiler]

If you are unable to attend Waterbury, are you still eligible for the prize?

Yes, you are

[Meddling Mike]

1. MeddlingMage
2. Demonic Attorney
3. Special K
4. Andy Farius
5. TK
6. Outlaw
7. Dave Feinstein
8. Brassman
9. FFY
10. Herbig
11. Rich Meyst
12. Travis LaPlante
13. Windfall
14. Cross
15. GaGooch
16. Stefan Barnsworth

[T00L]

Guess i should make a list

1.TK (lets be realistic guys)
2. Brassman
3. Dave Feinstein
4. Cross
5. Outlaw
6. Special K
7. Jim Sanguinetti (sp?)
8. Andy Farias
9. T00L
10. FFY
11. Rich Meyst
12. Travis Laplante
13. Evenpence
14. Herbig
15. Sonata Of The Cathedral
16. Pat Broderick

[Kowal]

I heard Eastman will probably be inattendance, so instead of him, I'm faced with two options:

Pern or Moobius.

So I choose spin13, because I too remember those days.  Dead bunnies are rad.

[Imsomniac101]

1. TK
2. Windfall
3. Folinus
4. FFY
5. Herbig
6. JDizzle
7. SpecialK
8. Smennen
9. Outlaw
10. Fiendstein
11. Brassman
12. Laplante
13. Gagooch
14. Yarrington
15. Chang
16. Seroogy

Note how I put all the name players in here. Prolly half the T16 will be people we have not heard of much, and that the deck that wins it all will have green creatures.

[Smmenen]

Time for my entry into this whirlwind, amazing contest that I hope to win.

First of all, let's use some logic.    It stands to reason that people who have done well at the waterbury before will be more inclined than Joe Schmo to do well again.   The Waterbury, like most Vintage events, displays a remarkable degree of consistency.  It is worth noting that a Quirion Dryad deck won BOTH of the last Waterburies.  That only supports my starting premise. 

Let's take a look at whose done well before:
Jan 2006 Waterbury:
TND OPEN 8 Final Standings after 8 rounds of swiss:
STANDING   NAME   POINTS   OPP M WIN %   PLAYER G WIN %   OPP G WIN %
1   Menger, Douglas   20   66.6667   80   65.9048
2   Hetherington, Michael   20   65.625   100   60.897
3   Rozwic, Caleb   20   60.5208   78.4314   61.9062
4   Levy, Seth   19   66.9792   80   61.0836
5   Mann, Corey   19   66.9792   70.5882   62.6587
6   Kolbig, Kent   19   63.5417   76.4706   60.3659
7   Mahannah, Bob   19   62.8125   66.6667   62.2751
8   Ward, Brendan   19   61.0863   66.6667   57.3559
9   Carpenter, Jeff   19   61.0863   63.1579   56.1202
10   Smithers, Jon   19   57.9861   65   58.2354
11   Houdlette, Stephen   19   52.7083   77.7778   52.2304
12   Steffens Gary, (BAT)   19   49.4544   68.4211   48.2064
13   Forino, Vincent   18   62.5893   70.5882   59.6668
14   Denham, Matt   18   61.6815   65   55.4898
15   Lindo, Aaron   18   60.7143   63.1579   59.128
16   Meches, Josh   18   57.4405   68.4211   54.5072
17   Laplante Travis, (NS1/2/5/6)   18   57.2917   72.2222   54.5399
18   Nicolo Paul, (VAG)   18   56.3776   72.2222   55.01
19   Wilkins Crossman, (GGS)   18   55   72.2222   52.0988
20   Antes, Nicolae   18   52.6042   66.6667   49.6922
21   Jacob Mike, (VAG)   18   52.4554   60   52.1914
22   Magyar, Peter   18   50.5208   70.5882   50.5885
23   Kowal, Ben   18   45.7738   68.4211   47.1538

Day 2:

I can't find day two results


July Waterbury:

Day 1:
1st  Rich Meyst   
2nd place   Joel Brauer   
3rd place   Dave Feinstein   
4th place   Ben Kowal   
5th place   roland chang   
6th place   Roger Sorino   
7th place   Justin Timoney   
8th place   Rob Castanza   
9th place   Carl Winter   
10th place   Jeremiah Rudolph   
11th place   James Lee   
12th place   David Reitnauer   
13th place   Pat Broderick   
14th place   Stephen Padinha   
15th place   Elias Vaisberg   
16th place   Willie Munch

Day Two
1. Ben Carp
2. Nate Pease
3. Ben Kowal
4. Dan Carp
5. TK
6. Jeremiah Rudolph
7. Joel Brauer
8.  Jess Fiss
9.  Joe Davis
10. Marc Tuttle
11. Erik Anderson
12. Rich Shay
13. Chad Behre
14.  Josh Vitullo
15.  Gary Steffins
16.  Dave Feinstein


Well this sucks.  The overlap is so extremely low.  There are virtually no overlaps between the three lists unless we count Ben Kowal as 22nd place in list one (since he had 18 points).

So, the scientific method didn't work.

Here's the random, subjective method:

Smmenen's submission

1st: Dave Feinstein
2nd: Mike Herbig
3rd: FFY
4th: TK
5th: Roland Chang
6th: Jeff Folinas
7th: Paul Mastriano
8th: Michael Heatherington
9th: Travis Laplante
10th: Justin Timmony
11th: Jeremey Seroogy
12th: Ben Carp
13th: Dan Carp
14th: Elias V.
15th: Andy Probasco
16th: Travis Laplante

[Roxas]

Smmenen: Ben Kowal is almost certainly not going to be in attendance, so you might want to modify your list.

[Smmenen]

Smmenen: Ben Kowal is almost certainly not going to be in attendance, so you might want to modify your list.

Revised.

Wow, that's frustrating that people in the area have such a huge advantage by picking up local knowledge.

It's like they say: all knowledge is local.

[RaleighNCTourneys]

1. Feinstein
2. TK
3. FFY
4. LaPlante
5. Hetherington
6. Folinas
7. Outlaw
8. Ro Chang
9. Kyle Leith
10. Brassman
11. Elias
12. Ben Carp
13. Caleb Rozwic
14. Douglas Menger
15. Joel Brauer
16. Seroogy

[Kowal]

Your day two list looks uh, wrong.  I lost to TK in the finals, and neither of us appear in it?  Whack.

[Smmenen]

Your day two list looks uh, wrong.  I lost to TK in the finals, and neither of us appear in it?  Whack.

It's called swiss.   

[Kowal]

I'd rather use final placement than swiss placement for determining who will repeat t16.  Placing higher than 5-8 shows you have not only the skill, but the endurance to keep going.  Endurance goes a long way in an 8 round event.

[ELD]

I'd rather use final placement than swiss placement for determining who will repeat t16.  Placing higher than 5-8 shows you have not only the skill, but the endurance to keep going.  Endurance goes a long way in an 8 round event.

I completely agree.  I have won or split in the majority of the Large Tournaments I have attended, but I have never made it to the finals in any event lasting more that 12 hours.  Give me 7 or 8 hours of play and a Top 8 and I like my chances, but starting the elimination rounds after I'm already exhausted has always resulted in horrible play errors on my side of the table.  It is a totally different strategy to play for so long and keep winning.  I feel that Quirion Dryad has done so well in Waterbury's top 16's in large part because of the forgiving nature of decks that contain her.  To an extent, the same thing can be said for Stax, only in reverse.  Very often people make mistakes playing against staxs that they would not have made if they were playing at their best.  That said, the TMD Open is the ultimate Iron Man of Magic event.  You have to respect the people who continually do well there.

[Meddling Mike]

Cany anybody actually post the top 16 to see who won this? I'm lookin' pretty good seeing as I picked the winner and multiple people in the top 8.

[Methuselahn]

Yeah, Yeah, who's TO'ing this thread?  Get on it Feinsteintime.

[Dxfiler]

I'm waiting for top 16 results.  Don't go editing your threads... you do that and you're auto disqualified.  Anything edited after friday I'll know about and count against you, so

DON'T DO IT!  :p

There were a couple people in the running for prizes.  I'm giving out at least a blue dual land, probably more.  Waiting on any kind of support from the staff.   If no other suport is offered, there's at least a dual going to the winner... thats pretty good for a free contest last time I checked =p

- Dave Feinstein

[iamfishman]

Sorry for the delay in this information but it has been Midterms week at school so I have been uber busy.

Here is the top 16 after swiss.

1.) Andy Probasco
2.) Davide Cohen
3.) Tariq Zahzam
4.) Jeremiah Rudolph
5.) Dan Carp
6.) Demonic Attorney
7.) Kevin Sigman
8.) Dave Feinstein
9.) Joe Davis
10.) Rob Costanza
11.) David Carhart
12.) Mike Herbig
13.) Brendan Ward
14.) Mike Hetherington
15.) Brian Fisher
16.) Ian Degraff

A report can be expected in the days to come.

[Dxfiler]

Alright... after far too much time calculating there was A TIE.  Here were the two finalists=


Smmenen's submission

1st: Dave Feinstein +4
2nd: Mike Herbig +2
3rd: FFY
4th: TK
5th: Roland Chang
6th: Jeff Folinas
7th: Paul Mastriano
8th: Michael Heatherington +1
9th: Travis Laplante
10th: Justin Timmony
11th: Jeremey Seroogy
12th: Ben Carp
13th: Dan Carp +4
14th: Elias V.
15th: Andy Probasco +10
16th: Travis Laplante

21 initial points, - 1 for hetherington, -1 for dan carp, -1 for me, -1 for herbig 
FINAL SCORE = 17

Meddling Mage's Submission

1. MeddlingMage
2. Demonic Attorney +4
3. Special K
4. Andy Farius
5. TK
6. Outlaw
7. Dave Feinstein +4
8. Brassman +10
9. FFY
10. Herbig +2
11. Rich Meyst
12. Travis LaPlante
13. Windfall
14. Cross
15. GaGooch
16. Stefan Barnsworth

20 initial points, - 1 for me, -1 for herbig, -1 for Demonic Attorney
FINAL SCORE = 17

So there was a tie.  As mentioned in my first post, I deducted points if you had picks that were eligible for byes.  Brassman had no bye, so if you put him on your list you got a free 10 points.  The tricky part was breakers.  I had also stated in the very first post that placement would matter in the event of tiebreaks.  After carefully going over the numbers between Mike and Steve, one person had accurately predicted more people at or near their final finish.  Thus making the winner of the TMD 10 PREDICTION CONTEST...


*drumroll*

MIKE LYDON.

Mike won narrowly by having more names closer to where they placed than Steve.  It came down to Brassman being 8th on mike's list and 15th on Steve's.  Also, Mike had 3 people in his top 8 who actually made top 8, where Steve had 1.  It's worth noting that Steve overall  picked more people to place top 16 than anyone else, the problem was some of those picks net him one or no points because many had byes.  Still, I was impressed that Steve's stastistics system actually generated a very accurate list and he lost only due to tiebreaks, so I've decided to give both finalists prizes.

1st- Mike Lydon- revised tundra

2nd- Steve Menendian- DCI Foil Wrath of God

I'll have to mail you the WOG steve, so pm me your address and I will do so.

Mike, I see you frequently enough, you'll get the tundra whenever I see you next.  I'll be at the MA pre-release if you're there.

So that's it for the contest :p  Thank you for the interest.  I ended up shelling out all the prizes out of my own pocket without any other support, so I don't think I'll do another one of these anytime soon.  Still, thank you for the submissions and congratulations to Steve/Mike.

- Dave Feinstein

[Jacob Orlove]

Both winners should PM me to request their Custom Titles.

[Smmenen]

The irony is that my statistical method yielded no results for me!   There was no one on those lists that appeared all three times other than Kowal and Dave Feinstein, who was going to be on my list anyway, was on two of them.   

When I saw the final top 16, I almost crapped myself because the One Person my statistical system DID indicate should have been on my list I didn't even include: Jeremiah.  When I saw Jeremiah's name I quickly checked my data and realized that for some stupid reason I put Travis Laplante's name on twice instead of Jeremiahs!   

My normal inclination would be to quibble over the tiebreaker system since the opening post said: "Getting the order right helps in the event of tiebreaks, but you really want to correctly guess as many top 16 finishers as possible." The placement of the word "but" and the use of the word "really" seems t imply that total number of correct guesses is more important than placement.  Although, it probably seemed a little strange that someone could get more total correct and still not win.   But hey, I got a free foil WOG for doing almost nothing.   Why look a gift horse in the mouth!?   

I'm not an ungrateful little bitch.   I think its sweet that you put up this prize and made such a nifty little contest.

Now I can say that I actually won something from a Waterbury :p

Thanks Dave!   Yay!

[iamfishman]

So that's it for the contest :p  Thank you for the interest.  I ended up shelling out all the prizes out of my own pocket without any other support, so I don't think I'll do another one of these anytime soon.  Still, thank you for the submissions and congratulations to Steve/Mike.

- Dave Feinstein

Dave.

This was very generous of you to shell this prize support all by yourself.  As mentioned In the Mod Lounge Thread, I will add to the prize suppot. So I will be sending out an official TMD Open 10 Playmat to Mike Lydon(one of only 16 made.)

Congrats Mike, and thanks again Dave for your genrosity.

[Meddling Mike]

Thanks to both Ray and Dave for their remarkable generosity, can't wait to see everybody next Waterbury!

[wethepeople]

Is it too late to enter?

My list is:

1.) Andy Probasco
2.) Davide Cohen
3.) Tariq Zahzam
4.) Jeremiah Rudolph
5.) Dan Carp
6.) Demonic Attorney
7.) Kevin Sigman
8.) Dave Feinstein
9.) Joe Davis
10.) Rob Costanza
11.) David Carhart
12.) Mike Herbig
13.) Brendan Ward
14.) Mike Hetherington
15.) Brian Fisher
16.) Ian Degraff

LOL