Single Card Discussion - Gemstone Caverns

[DJ Catchem]

In light of all the hype surrounding  a "turn-0" win with the Hulk Flash decklists floating around, Gemstone Caverns is starting to being dragged out of the 50-cent rare bin and put to...well, debatable use.  There are some high-profile proponents of the card, and just as many people calling it out as a worthless addition to any deck.  The more I test it, however, the more I'm coming to realize that Classic Online is in a unique position to get the most from this card.

The reason for this is a lack of any real disruption in the format that can be applied before a player makes his or her first land drop.  I'm aware that Disrupting Shoal exists; however, despite some limited use in the Eternal Struggle PREs, the card has just not caught on, mostly due to a very narrow usage that requires most of the deck applying the card to build for it.  The chances that you'll manage to have Shoal plus the blue card with the correct casting-cost ready to go in any given hand is just too much of a reach.

As a result, Gemstone Caverns is in a very unique position.  It essentially can function in the format as a superior Chrome Mox; it has an identical card disadvantage played early, and late comes down as a vanilla drop requiring nothing else, where the Mox always requires the loss of a card.  (I realize the Mox also always ends up producing colored mana, which is a benefit on occasion later in the game.)  Early, the Caverns will always produce the correct color of mana as well, where the Mox often is a tradeoff between what you need immediately, and what you need later.  Both offer equal first-turn acceleration.

Where the Caverns jumps out into the lead is the ability to duck early disruption and set up a turn quicker than the Mox.  Versus a Duress on the play, the Caverns player can Brainstorm in response to hide key cards, or Vamp/Mystical tutor to save a setup that might have otherwise been discarded.  The benefit of being on the draw and Tutoring before your first turn is also huge, as you draw what you need right off the bat, thus not wasting a draw that the Mox player must endure.

Obviously, this comes into the spotlight due to the presence of Flash, but I think this card might go further than that.  Like the other Eternal formats, the first few turns are crucial to winning the game in many cases.  Can control decks benefit from being able to Force Spike or Stifle an opponent on the play, for example? 

Is this card close to being strictly better than Chrome Mox?

--->DJ   

[Zherbus]

I would say as a single card, in classic, it's worse than Chrome Mox. Chrome can go into just about any deck, and usually does. Also, Gemstone Caverns is only good when you draw it opening hand and go last, which puts a highly conditional tag on it. In Flash Combo, I think given the choice to run only one of the other, I'd run Chrome Mox for better turns beyond Turn 0-1. However, we get both so I advocate running 4 each.

In other decks? I've seen it tried and I've tried it myself... if this format was FASTER and still Lacked FoW (something we may see when Tempest block hits) then it'd be more worthwhile in other combo decks.

[DJ Catchem]

Interesting...I've had far greater success in Hulk Flash testing with Caverns over Mox.  Again, the ability to protect your opening hand via Brainstorm or Vamp/Mystical Tutor in the face of Swamp->Duress is so critical, since this deck loves to mulligan into the perfect hand but hates to lose any cards.

The thing to keep in mind is that chances are better than not that you will be drawing at least 50% of the time...this deck may alter the format, but currently, no-one chooses to draw, which might push that number higher.  Who knows...choosing to draw might become a form of disruption after this deck sees some play.

I can see and agree with your assessment about the speed of the format; I think you're right about Tempest, but Hulk Flash in and of itself might also serve to speed the format up.  It may become literally game-breaking if control decks can't answer a first turn play on the draw.

As far as other combo decks go, I'm not sure this is a bad call.  If you run Caverns with the mindset that it basically acts as acceleration (and not a land drop), I can see this helping almost all combo greatly.  Any deck that needs a boost in early tutoring will see a benefit from Caverns as long as Vampiric Tutor remains legal and un-restricted, IMO.   

--->DJ

[dangerlinto]

The problem with the card is this:  Even if you could always play an opponent who for some reason, allowed you to be on the draw in every game you have with caverns, you have only a 40% of seeing one without muliiganing.  And mulling even once nullifies the advantage you had in that you get to see an extra card while also "going first".

In a real-life situation, you will be on the draw about 66% of the time (between picking and chooisng to go first), while only having a 40% chance of it making a difference.  Which means somewhere about 30% of the time will you get to use caverns.

Which means 70% of the time you are stuck with a legendary land than can't even produce a colored mana.

In a combo deck like Hulk or Dragon, you up your usefullness of caverns by leaving it in the sideboard when you know you can choose to go second.  In which case it's STILL at 40% chance. However, since that 40% chance matches pretty well with the 40% of the oppoenent having a duress, and your chances of responding with a Mirage Tutor or Brainstorm, at that point I see it being worth the risk.

[DJ Catchem]

The problem with the card is this:  Even if you could always play an opponent who for some reason, allowed you to be on the draw in every game you have with caverns, you have only a 40% of seeing one without muliiganing.  And mulling even once nullifies the advantage you had in that you get to see an extra card while also "going first".

This is the important part IMO.  Does it really nullify your advantage? 

I posted a bunch of test data, but the gist of it is, at least as it applies to Hulk Flash, that the deck wants to mulligan.  Alot.  The deck was way faster under an aggressive mulligan than by keeping a safe hand most of the time.  The beauty of such a redundant build is that it's pretty easy to find some combination of a Hulk, a Flash, or the cards to find them.  Look at a hand like:

Mox
Delta
Hulk
VampTutor
Chain
Watery Grave
Echoing Truth

I drew this exact hand in a test game.  My opponent on the play went Grave, Duress, and took my Vamp, shutting me off.  Just to see what would happen, I mulliganed to six (unkeepable), and then to five, where I saw:

Caverns
Chain
Hulk
Vamp Tutor
SSG

That's a net loss of -3 card advantage, and the difference between winning on my turn one, or probably losing the game in topdeck mode. 

The mulligan might lose you card advantage, but if it can gain you card quality so easily, Caverns truly shines.

In a real-life situation, you will be on the draw about 66% of the time (between picking and chooisng to go first), while only having a 40% chance of it making a difference.  Which means somewhere about 30% of the time will you get to use caverns.

Which means 70% of the time you are stuck with a legendary land than can't even produce a colored mana.

Currently, I bet there's a very real chance that you'll be able to be on the play nearly 100% of the time when it matters.  I realize that this might change when Future Sight is released and this deck is viable, but right now, *no-one* draws.  If you win the roll and crush your opponent, there's a good chance currently that he'll choose to play, giving you the draw again.  If he chooses to draw, you either win in spite of it, or lose, and get the draw again in game three.  This reverses if you lose the roll, but again, right now, nearly every Classic player who wins the roll chooses to play, and if that's the case, you get the same result. 

Which means it's almost a non-issue, and it comes down to mulliganing for optimal use of your card-pool. 

In a combo deck like Hulk or Dragon, you up your usefullness of caverns by leaving it in the sideboard when you know you can choose to go second.  In which case it's STILL at 40% chance. However, since that 40% chance matches pretty well with the 40% of the oppoenent having a duress, and your chances of responding with a Mirage Tutor or Brainstorm, at that point I see it being worth the risk.

This may prove to be the case once this deck catches on and players realize that if they let a Hulk player draw, they might lose before they get a main-phase.  Like I said, strategic use of play/draw choice.  But for now, I feel like it's always worth the risk, as decks that play Duress typically main-deck them and will usually open with them if possible. 

--->DJ

[dangerlinto]

I posted a bunch of test data, but the gist of it is, at least as it applies to Hulk Flash, that the deck wants to mulligan.  Alot.  The deck was way faster under an aggressive mulligan than by keeping a safe hand most of the time.  The beauty of such a redundant build is that it's pretty easy to find some combination of a Hulk, a Flash, or the cards to find them.  Look at a hand like:

Mox
Delta
Hulk
VampTutor
Chain
Watery Grave
Echoing Truth

I drew this exact hand in a test game.  My opponent on the play went Grave, Duress, and took my Vamp, shutting me off.  Just to see what would happen, I mulliganed to six (unkeepable), and then to five, where I saw:

Caverns
Chain
Hulk
Vamp Tutor
SSG

That's a net loss of -3 card advantage, and the difference between winning on my turn one, or probably losing the game in topdeck mode. 

DJ, closet cases don't win out over math.  The fact of the matter is playing on the draw and having caverns out has only one advatage over playing first - you get to look at an extra card.   Siting theoritical "turn 0" wins isn't going to help in the face of math. 

And don't forget, while you are aggresively mulling to hit caverns, so is your opponent on leyline.  And your 5 card hand can't actually win with a leyline out until turn 2 - perhaps you are forgetting this part of Caverns:

If you do, remove a card in your hand from the game.

[DJ Catchem]

DJ, closet cases don't win out over math.  The fact of the matter is playing on the draw and having caverns out has only one advatage over playing first - you get to look at an extra card.   Siting theoritical "turn 0" wins isn't going to help in the face of math. 

But Danger, if you read everything I've been saying, you'll note that I've already addressed these two things!  In the first place, I've stated (over and over and over) that the 'turn-0' win is not even close to the most compelling reason to play Caverns;  In fact, if it were the only benefit from doing so, I'd probably dismiss it, since that win happens on average once in a blue moon.

Again, getting to look at an extra card is part of the advantage.  But the more important part is the ability to act or react first in the game.  I challenge you to find one scenerio where being able to VampTutor prior to your first draw in the game is worse than drawing a random card first and then Vamping.  On the same token, anyone testing this deck knows how crucial it is to have the correct opening hand, and conversely, how hard it is when you mulligan into it, only to be Duressed before you can act.  THAT'S the true advantage of this card.

And you're right...closet cases don't fly in the face of math.  I'm citing hundreds of test games over the past few weeks.
 

And don't forget, while you are aggresively mulling to hit caverns, so is your opponent on leyline.  And your 5 card hand can't actually win with a leyline out until turn 2 - perhaps you are forgetting this part of Caverns:

If you do, remove a card in your hand from the game.

That's not a point I would readily forget.  In fact, this is one big reason why I'll call your strategy of sideboarding in Caverns as fatally flawed. You're setting yourself up to run into exactly the situation you just described, while not allowing yourself the advantage of Caverns with no Leyline pressure game one.

If you'll notice, the example I cited above was a game one example.  Clearly, the card I would have pitched to the Caverns was the Chain.  In response to my opponent's opening Duress, I Vamp for Flash, leaving no Duress targets and an opponent with no mana to act.  I untap for my turn one and win.  Academic. 

--->DJ