Six of One, Half Dozen of the Other

[Tha Gunslinga]

Tezzeret is the new Morphling.

--

Stephen Menendian

Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

[M.Solymossy]

It will fit into one deck, that is not ever going to see success as long as TPS and Slaver are big players in the field. 

[Smmenen]

Tezzeret is the new Morphling.

--

Stephen Menendian

Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

Probably a good thing.

By "Morphling" I mean that it will be the new blue control closer/finisher.   

If Fact or Fiction was unrestricted, I would build BBS with this as the win condition, not Morphling or Meloku. 

[desolutionist]

It will fit into one deck, that is not ever going to see success as long as TPS and Slaver are big players in the field. 

Popular TPS and Slaver shells are slow, clunky, and inconsistent.  They're the "big players" of the metagame because of lack of innovation.  A strong Drain deck will dominate tournaments.

[Smmenen]

It will fit into one deck, that is not ever going to see success as long as TPS and Slaver are big players in the field. 

Popular TPS and Slaver shells are slow, clunky, and inconsistent.  They're the "big players" of the metagame because of lack of innovation.  A strong Drain deck will dominate tournaments.

I subscribe to the view that TPS is the best deck in Vintage, and will remain such for the foreseeable future.   I hold this view for a number of reasons.   First and foremost, Dark Ritual decks have tended to trump Mana Drain decks, just as a matter of course.   This is true historically and this is true of the present.  Grim Long, TPS, etc – these all had favorable Mana Drain matchups.  The exception, of course, being Scroll decks, which trumped Dark Ritual decks.   Another reason is that, for some reason, very few people are playing TPS.   I’ve run some preliminary stats, and almost 40% of the top 8s from August were Mana Drain decks.   The biggest Drain decks were Painter and Slaver, but Drain Tendrils also did well.   With two major exceptions (the Vintage Champs and the Pittsburgh Mox tournament), there are virtually no TPS decks in top 8s throughout the entire month of August. So long as Drain decks make up such a huge proportion of the metagame, Dark Ritual decks seem like the best deck choice.  Moreover, these Drain decks keep Shops in check, the natural Storm predator, and consequently Shop decks have declined substantially from the Gush days of about 25% of the metagame to around 16%.   

There seems to be a natural limit to the number of people who will play TPS.   This is not new.   Few people played Ritual Gifts or Pitch Long or Grim Long before the second Gushbond era.   I think people would just rather play a Drain deck, which makes TPS even better.   

I also don’t think that TPS being a big player is a lack of innovation.  TPS runs the very best restricted cards, the best acceleration in the format, a hyper stable mana base, and the best protection spells (Duress + Force).     It’s hard to innovate a deck to beat a deck on a consistent basis with such strong fundamentals. 

[desolutionist]

I subscribe to the view that TPS is the best deck in Vintage, and will remain such for the foreseeable future.   I hold this view for a number of reasons.   First and foremost, Dark Ritual decks have tended to trump Mana Drain decks, just as a matter of course.   This is true historically and this is true of the present.  Grim Long, TPS, etc – these all had favorable Mana Drain matchups.  The exception, of course, being Scroll decks, which trumped Dark Ritual decks.

TPS is hardly the ideal Dark Ritual deck.

Grim Long, which accelerates out multiple bomb spells per turn, undoubtedly trumps a typical Mana Drain strategy out of pure speed.  However, the restriction of Brainstorm severely neutered it's ability to assemble such busted plays consistently.  Nearly every decent Storm player quickly realized this and appropriately shifted to a slower, yet more interactive "TPS" version, which strives to accelerate out a calculated and protected win when its there.

Given a quicker win (Tezzeret), Mana Drain decks can easily beat TPS.  Even though Merchant Scroll was the best blue tutor and draw engine, it can be replaced.  Looking at your earlier Slaver lists, I see you like Sensei's Divining Top as much as I do... 

I also don’t think that TPS being a big player is a lack of innovation.  TPS runs the very best restricted cards, the best acceleration in the format, a hyper stable mana base, and the best protection spells (Duress + Force).     It’s hard to innovate a deck to beat a deck on a consistent basis with such strong fundamentals.

Take a look at what won the Pittsburgh Mox tournament.  This is the kind of innovation I'm referring to.

[Webster]

I don't have as much time to write this post. I'll expand later on if I have time.

Given a quicker win (Tezzeret), Mana Drain decks can easily beat TPS.

Frankly, you're wrong.

 Let's look at what Tezzeret really brings to the table for drain decks:

-Leyline of the void in play. Tezzeret get's helm of obedience (vommit). Activate for 1 to RFG the opp's deck.
-Tezzeret get's painter/grindstone, passes the turn, and then kills next turn.
-Tezzeret fetches some mana denial, either chalice for zero or null rod.

Tezzeret looks a bit too slow to impact the game vs. dark rituals.

"But wait. What happens when I have drain up."

Oh, I'm sorry. I forgot that drain decks are always on the play and always lead with delta, sapphire while TPS keeps a sketchy six.

Even though Merchant Scroll was the best blue tutor and draw engine, it can be replaced.

Again, I disagree. Scroll's "replacements" pale in comparison to the speed/versatility that scroll provided.

[Smmenen]

I subscribe to the view that TPS is the best deck in Vintage, and will remain such for the foreseeable future.   I hold this view for a number of reasons.   First and foremost, Dark Ritual decks have tended to trump Mana Drain decks, just as a matter of course.   This is true historically and this is true of the present.  Grim Long, TPS, etc – these all had favorable Mana Drain matchups.  The exception, of course, being Scroll decks, which trumped Dark Ritual decks.

TPS is hardly the ideal Dark Ritual deck.

Grim Long, which accelerates out multiple bomb spells per turn, undoubtedly trumps a typical Mana Drain strategy out of pure speed.  However, the restriction of Brainstorm severely neutered it's ability to assemble such busted plays consistently.  Nearly every decent Storm player quickly realized this and appropriately shifted to a slower, yet more interactive "TPS" version, which strives to accelerate out a calculated and protected win when its there.

Shawn,

Let me start by saying to you that you should not feel like you can't be completely forthright with what you mean.   Don’t feel like you have to qualify or obscure your true meaning.  I’m not saying you are, but it seems like a lot of what you are saying is really coded language for something else.

For example:

”TPS Is hardly the ideal Ritual deck”, in the context of what I said, basically makes it sound like what you really mean is: ‘TPS isn’t a Dark Ritual deck that beats Mana Drain decks.’   

If that’s what you believe or mean to say, then say it.  Don’t let the fear of me attacking you for what you believe or how anyone else will read what you say coerce you to say anything other than what you really want to say.   I mean, does it really matter whether I, or anyone else, disagrees with you?   Disagreement is the starting point for real discussion. 

Disagreement isn’t what matters; it’s the reason for the disagreement that matter.   I’m not just pointing this out in you, but I’ve noticed that lots of people tend to cover what they say in less direct language.   “TPS is hardly the ideal Ritual deck” is a very, very muddled message.  Out of context, it wouldn’t even be clear what you were talking about. 

It sounds like your main point is that Dark Ritual decks in the past have had good matchups against Mana Drain decks, but no longer do, thanks to the restriction of Brainstorm.   

If that’s the primary reason you think that Ritual decks now don’t beat Drain decks, I will disagree with that reason for the following reasons.    First of all, the loss of Brainstorm is not a one-sided loss.  Mana Drain decks have lost quite a bit from the restriction of Brainstorm relative to the Ritual decks.   Duress is a stronger card now that you don’t have Brainstorm on hand to hide your best card.   It is now easier for the combo pilot to plan a line of play (after playing Duress) with a greater degree of accuracy.   Plus, the obvious decreased ability to find another Mana Drain or Force of Will certainly has an impact over time.

On the Combo side, I have actually mixed response about the loss of Brainstorm.   Brainstorm was such an automatic inclusion that we rarely had the chance to see how it actually impacted game play.   I tested a lot of Grim Long in June and found it to be basically the same old beast I remembered it.  Jimmy tested it and found that it was not.   I think one of the things I discovered was that in some ways Grim Long was actually faster now, not slower.   The reason is this.   You play turn one City of Brass, Brainstorm.  What is actually the effect of that play?  It has two effects.  First, it lets you see all of the cards you would have seen on turn three on turn one.   Second, it eats up your first turn.   For example, if there was a choice between turn one Brainstorm or turn one Windfall, I almost always played Brainstorm. Thus, this is the trade off.   You lose your first turn, but you gain a more powerful turn two.   In truth, that’s not that much of a gain, on average.   You see one less card.  In terms of planning which bomb to drop on turn two and which is your backup, that one additional card does not make that much of a difference.  Finally, the loss of Briastorm in Grim Long is not really a total loss as you just lose two Brainstorms, as Ponder really replaced 2nd Braistorm quite well. 
I think the biggest difference isn’t speed.  The loss of Brainstorm just decreases explosive start over time since the few cards that set up turn one wins, like Black Lotus, are now slightly less frequently.   Brainstorm wasn’t really a “fixer” for Grim Long in the sense that it helped you rearrange your components (say, finding needed Ritual or a Mox) because it only saw one more card by turn two than you would have seen anyway, and deck design was the key to that.   What it WAS was a fixer for Pitch Long, since it had more of a rotating cast of cards it needed to combine to “unlock” a game.   Thus, as I initially predicted, the biggest loss would be to Pitch Long, and it was.   Pitch Long used to be a blazingly fast deck.   It’s consistency was already built in, in terms of mana and threats, but what it needed was just not mana and thrats, it needed a pitch spell, a blue spell to pitch, mana, and then a key threat.   Grim Long didn’t need all of those components.  It only needed the mana and the threats.   

To make a long story short, it’s taken the restriction of Brainstorm for me to see more clearly what Brainstorm actually did and how it functioned and to realize that it has not been a total loss for combo, but that it has hurt in some ways, helped in some ways, and on the whole, it has hurt Drain decks just as much. 

Your second point is that combo players switched to the slower TPS, and your reason is because the faster decks were less consistent because of Brainstorm.  I disagree.  It is true that combo players switched from Grim Long to TPS, but not because Grim Long was too inconsistent.  Rather, Grim Long cannot beat TPS.   It’s too much of a mirror match in which one person is more interactive than you.   It’s the same reason Grim Long disappeared when people started to play Pitch Long.   Grim Long couldn’t beat a very similar combo deck with the major difference being that one deck has Force and the other doesn’t.   

In a sense, it is the dilemma that Mana Drain pilots are facing right now and the reason, I believe, that so many are switching to Painter.   Suppose you are committed to a Mana Drain deck.  You look at available options: Painter, Drain Tendrils, Control Slaver, or whatnot.   Which do you play?   Do you play the deck with 5 Red blasts main or not?  It’s not that you can’t win, but it seems like you are going to have a tough time in that matchup.   Plus, there is a much smaller player base for Ritual decks than Drian decks.   40% of top 8s are Drain decks.  Closer to 10% of Top 8s are Ritual decks. 

If you look at the number of “bombs” that TPS runs, it’s really not that far off from Pitch Long.   You have Tinker and Jar, you have Desire, Bargain, Necro, Twister, and Will, and you have even more tutors than ever.   2008 TPS is actually a hybrid of Pitch Long and 2004 TPS.  It’s much faster and more robust than older TPS, and doesn’t sit around to wait as much as old TPS did.

In my experience with TPS, I’ve just steam rolled every single Drain pilot I’ve faced (with the exception of Mat Endress, and my own mistakes play a very large role in those loses).  In four tournaments now that Paul Mastriano has been playing TPS, I don’t think he’s lost a match to a Drain pilot.  He has lost mirror matches and to Workshops, though. 

That is not to say that you can’t build a control deck to beat TPS.   I definitely think that mono blue decks can and will beat TPS.   My Vintage Champs 2004 Top 8 list would probably crush TPS, and the deck would be even better today.   I just think it’s generally unfavorable.   

In some ways, this has been the narrative of Vintage; Control versus Combo.   Many years ago, almost a decade now, Patrick Chapin asserted that Combo beat Control.   The Vintage community of the time flatly rejected that assertion and continued to play Keeper through the Academy Era, through the Trix era, and on and on, living in denial.   In 2003, I was one of the first people in the Vintage community to buck orthodoxy and pick up a Ritual deck.   That thread and history is archived here: http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=11893.0

However, the orthodoxy held sway.   Even through 4 LED era, most of the Vintage elites believed that Drains were the best deck to play.   When I played Grim Long after the legalization of Portal, I stomped Drain opponents all over the place until people started picking up on my Meandeck Gifts.   The sole exception to Ritual decks beating Drain decks is, in my historical recollection, Merchant Scroll decks.   And its not simply because they could find Force of Will, but because they had a consistency and a flexibility that gave them edges everywhere.  Resolving Ancestral earlier gave them the resources to control the game, and so on.   And even then, the narrative of Vintage became Pitch Long versus Meandeck Gifts, a drama that ended in the Vintage Champs of 2006, with a dramatic victory of Gifts over Long. 

Now that the GAT/Shop metagame has been swept out again, I believe that this debate has been restored, but historical memory is not very good.   It seems that despite winning the Vintage Champs this year, it is going to take a while before people start getting on board again.   

Given a quicker win (Tezzeret), Mana Drain decks can easily beat TPS.  Even though Merchant Scroll was the best blue tutor and draw engine, it can be replaced.  Looking at your earlier Slaver lists, I see you like Sensei's Divining Top as much as I do... 

I think you are confusing a quick kill for a quick early game.   The fact that Tezzert is like a Morphling that untaps and wins the game does not mean that the early game is faster.   Scroll was the fastest tactical blue spell that existed that could both serve as an offensive weapon and draw spell and a defensive protector.   Thirst, Intuition, etc, are weak against Rituals because they are so much slower by comparison.   

Take a look at what won the Pittsburgh Mox tournament.  This is the kind of innovation I'm referring to.

The Trogdon special is, for the most part, a renovated mono blue control deck, with Sea Drakes for a faster kill.   Some good things are in there, but some questionable things as well.   Mat Endress similar Vintage worlds deck impresses me more, all due respect to my dear friend Mark Trogdon

[desolutionist]

Thanks for allowing me to explain,

It sounds like your main point is that Dark Ritual decks in the past have had good matchups against Mana Drain decks, but no longer do, thanks to the restriction of Brainstorm.

Yeah, my point is that storm decks have a weaker game against Drain decks.  Its still good just out of the chance you open up with the nuts.  But without Brainstorm digging out Duress OR the win instantly, the deck is a lot slower and much more predictable.  Now, you actually have to draw into your win if you don't get to open up with a strong hand.   

If that’s the primary reason you think that Ritual decks now don’t beat Drain decks, I will disagree with that reason for the following reasons.    First of all, the loss of Brainstorm is not a one-sided loss.  Mana Drain decks have lost quite a bit from the restriction of Brainstorm relative to the Ritual decks.

I think Drain decks can naturally handle the loss.  Turn 1 Brainstorm was never an impressive play for control so the most critical turn isn't nearly as harmed.

Duress is a stronger card now that you don’t have Brainstorm on hand to hide your best card.   It is now easier for the combo pilot to plan a line of play (after playing Duress) with a greater degree of accuracy.

Now that Brainstorm is gone, Duress is just about a staple in all decks.  It hurts as much as it helps.

Plus, the obvious decreased ability to find another Mana Drain or Force of Will certainly has an impact over time.

Right, but less of an impact than having to find another bomb spell and ritual.  Plus Top almost functionally copies Brainstorm for digging.

On the Combo side, I have actually mixed response about the loss of Brainstorm.   Brainstorm was such an automatic inclusion that we rarely had the chance to see how it actually impacted game play.   I tested a lot of Grim Long in June and found it to be basically the same old beast I remembered it.  Jimmy tested it and found that it was not.

All of the aggressive storm decks I tested drew terrible hands and mulliganed into worse.  Too many lands.  Not enough lands.  No bombs.  Too many hands that sucked.  Now we know whoever wins anything with Grim Long is just a huge lucksack.  But maybe for more than one reason.

You see one less card.  In terms of planning which bomb to drop on turn two and which is your backup, that one additional card does not make that much of a difference.  Finally, the loss of Briastorm in Grim Long is not really a total loss as you just lose two Brainstorms, as Ponder really replaced 2nd Braistorm quite well.

That really just depends on what you open with/keep and what is in the top three.  You can just as easily draw into the win or even a better turn two play.

The loss of Brainstorm just decreases explosive start over time since the few cards that set up turn one wins, like Black Lotus, are now slightly less frequently.

The explosive turns is what Drain decks had the most trouble dealing with.   

Brainstorm wasn’t really a “fixer” for Grim Long in the sense that it helped you rearrange your components (say, finding needed Ritual or a Mox) because it only saw one more card by turn two than you would have seen anyway, and deck design was the key to that.

How many hands did you keep solely because it contained Brainstorm?  Probably quite a few.  Instead now you're just relying on the top card more often.  With what playable hands you DO get, you're frequently having to go "all-in", making it "faster" but worse overall.

What it WAS was a fixer for Pitch Long, since it had more of a rotating cast of cards it needed to combine to “unlock” a game.   Thus, as I initially predicted, the biggest loss would be to Pitch Long, and it was.   Pitch Long used to be a blazingly fast deck.   It’s consistency was already built in, in terms of mana and threats, but what it needed was just not mana and thrats, it needed a pitch spell, a blue spell to pitch, mana, and then a key threat.

   

If anything, TPS is just a modification of Pitch Long.

Grim Long didn’t need all of those components.  It only needed the mana and the threats.

It needed the right mana and multiple threats.  Brainstorm was a key spell.

Your second point is that combo players switched to the slower TPS, and your reason is because the faster decks were less consistent because of Brainstorm.  I disagree.  It is true that combo players switched from Grim Long to TPS, but not because Grim Long was too inconsistent.  Rather, Grim Long cannot beat TPS.   It’s too much of a mirror match in which one person is more interactive than you.   It’s the same reason Grim Long disappeared when people started to play Pitch Long.   Grim Long couldn’t beat a very similar combo deck with the major difference being that one deck has Force and the other doesn’t.

Duress just happens to be one of the better spells to play while you're waiting to build up lands or draw into something.  I think the fact that it is good in the mirror match is just gravy.  I'd still rather have Brainstorm or Merchant Scroll.

In my experience with TPS, I’ve just steam rolled every single Drain pilot I’ve faced (with the exception of Mat Endress, and my own mistakes play a very large role in those loses).  In four tournaments now that Paul Mastriano has been playing TPS, I don’t think he’s lost a match to a Drain pilot.  He has lost mirror matches and to Workshops, though.

  My last tournament loss was to the Drain deck that won the Pittsburgh event.  His win was due entirely to deck design.

I think you are confusing a quick kill for a quick early game.   The fact that Tezzert is like a Morphling that untaps and wins the game does not mean that the early game is faster.   Scroll was the fastest tactical blue spell that existed that could both serve as an offensive weapon and draw spell and a defensive protector.   Thirst, Intuition, etc, are weak against Rituals because they are so much slower by comparison.

Tezzeret is a much quicker kill than setting up a huge Yawgmoth's Will; the combo player is just given less draws to recover.  Merchant Scroll can't be replaced, but it doesn't have to be because TPS is slower than Pitch Long.   

[Smmenen]

It sounds like your main point is that Dark Ritual decks in the past have had good matchups against Mana Drain decks, but no longer do, thanks to the restriction of Brainstorm.

Yeah, my point is that storm decks have a weaker game against Drain decks. 

This is the issue then.  Debating the specifics of how Brainstorm may or may not hurt or help one deck over another is not terribly important to this question.  I come at it from the 100% opposite position, which is that Dark Ritual naturally beat Drain decks.

That said:

Turn 1 Brainstorm was never an impressive play for control so the most critical turn isn't nearly as harmed.

When I go:

Turn One, land, Duress, and you respond with Brainstorm and hide your Force or Drain on top, that IS a very good play.   I don't know what you are talking about here.   

Duress is a stronger card now that you don’t have Brainstorm on hand to hide your best card.   It is now easier for the combo pilot to plan a line of play (after playing Duress) with a greater degree of accuracy.

Now that Brainstorm is gone, Duress is just about a staple in all decks.  It hurts as much as it helps.

 

Wrong on both counts.  Take a look at all of the major Drain decks.  None of them have maindeck Duresses.   Slaver doesn't.  Painter doesn't.  Drain Tendrils does, but only some times.  And the Trogdon special definitely doesn't.   

On the second count, even if Duress increased its presence, you missed my point.   The control pilot used Brainstorm to hide its countermagic.   Combo didn't use Brainstorm for that purpose. 

On the Combo side, I have actually mixed response about the loss of Brainstorm.   Brainstorm was such an automatic inclusion that we rarely had the chance to see how it actually impacted game play.   I tested a lot of Grim Long in June and found it to be basically the same old beast I remembered it.  Jimmy tested it and found that it was not.

All of the aggressive storm decks I tested drew terrible hands and mulliganed into worse.  Too many lands.  Not enough lands.  No bombs.  Too many hands that sucked.  Now we know whoever wins anything with Grim Long is just a huge lucksack.  But maybe for more than one reason.

Your sample size was probably too small.  Losing two Brainstorms (since, in Grim Long, Ponder is functionally equiv) was not enough to make Grim Long turn from whatever it was to what you described.    I did quite a bit of Grim Long testing, and I found that it was just as consistent and even a little bit faster on the median hand (not the explosive hand). 

You see one less card.  In terms of planning which bomb to drop on turn two and which is your backup, that one additional card does not make that much of a difference.  Finally, the loss of Briastorm in Grim Long is not really a total loss as you just lose two Brainstorms, as Ponder really replaced 2nd Braistorm quite well.

That really just depends on what you open with.

Well, of course.  But my point is that the one extra card really doesn't make that much of a difference a vast majority of the time.   That additional card could have been Black Lotus, but I'm not talking about unusual circumstances.

The loss of Brainstorm just decreases explosive start over time since the few cards that set up turn one wins, like Black Lotus, are now slightly less frequently.

The explosive turns is what Drain decks had trouble dealing with.

 Only Pitch Long had the key explosive turn that Drain decks had trouble dealing with.    But That wasn't the game plan of Original Long.dec nor Grim Long.

Both Original Long.dec and Grim Long were desgined to throw bomb after bomb until one resolved. 

I think you are confusing a quick kill for a quick early game.   The fact that Tezzert is like a Morphling that untaps and wins the game does not mean that the early game is faster.   Scroll was the fastest tactical blue spell that existed that could both serve as an offensive weapon and draw spell and a defensive protector.   Thirst, Intuition, etc, are weak against Rituals because they are so much slower by comparison.

Tezzeret is a much quicker kill than setting up a huge Yawgmoth's Will; the combo player is just given less draws to recover.  Merchant Scroll can't be replaced, but it doesn't have to be because TPS is slower than Pitch Long.   

I'm not sure what the confusion is.  The fact that Tezzerett may be a quicker kill that Yawg Will has nothing to do with what my point was.   I was explaining that you were confusing having a quick kill with an early tactical game.   Scroll was an early tactic that allowed Drain decks to stay in the early game, where they usually get blown out.   Tezzeret has nothing to do with that. 

[Smmenen]

At least the DCI went out of there way to put together some decent explanations for the recent B&R list changes. http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/ld/2

On the other hand, they punted on Time Vault for a couple of weeks.   

[LotusHead]

On the other hand, they punted on Time Vault for a couple of weeks.   

That concludes this week’s Latest Developments, but before we go for the week it bears mentioning that Time Vault’s power-level errata will be removed in conjunction with the next Oracle update scheduled for September 26. As a result the card has been banned in Legacy and restricted in Vintage; the explanations regarding those changes will be given when the Oracle text is officially updated later in September.

Any theories on why they wouldn't just give us the Oracle wording now, even though it wouldn't be in effect until Sept 26?  Is there a chance that the final wording/templating isn't finished yet?

It's not like Time Vault sees play at all at the moment. (Except that weird Shop Combo deck)

[Anusien]

Any theories on why they wouldn't just give us the Oracle wording now, even though it wouldn't be in effect until Sept 26?  Is there a chance that the final wording/templating isn't finished yet?

Probably because this was an announcement on the Development column by the DCI, and the errata is done by the Rules Team.  We got fortuitous on timing; one of the guys realized that the new B/R list takes effect less than a week before the Oracle changes go live (9/20 versus 9/26) and there was an opportunity to do both, but normally they're two separate groups.

[Smmenen]

It's not like Time Vault sees play at all at the moment. (Except that weird Shop Combo deck)

Yeah, those Shop Combo players better break out their Time Vaults this weekend and next if they want to play with Time Vault as a four-of!

[desolutionist]

When I go:

Turn One, land, Duress, and you respond with Brainstorm and hide your Force or Drain on top, that IS a very good play.   I don't know what you are talking about here.

  

Brainstorm is a fine play in that scenario but I'd almost always perfer a different turn one play.  Merchant Scroll (MDG), Chalice (Oath), or Welder (Slaver).  Depending on the opening hand, getting a Force or Drain Duressed didn't matter much since you still had a plethora of tutors and bomb spells.  Control decks profited so much more by Brainstorming later with a shuffle effect for fixing.    Much like Gifts, Tezzeret actually now makes Duress have less impact on the Drain deck because it is actually relevant.  If I reveal a hand with Drain, Mana Vault, Tezzeret you'd probably have to take Tezzeret over Drain.

Wrong on both counts.  Take a look at all of the major Drain decks.  None of them have maindeck Duresses.   Slaver doesn't.  Painter doesn't.  Drain Tendrils does, but only some times.  And the Trogdon special definitely doesn't.

 

Maybe not maindeck since that depends on the metagame.  Duress is terrible against Stax and Aggro.  Though any deck with an Underground Sea should have it somewhere.

On the second count, even if Duress increased its presence, you missed my point.   The control pilot used Brainstorm to hide its countermagic.   Combo didn't use Brainstorm for that purpose.

 

Brainstorm was good for more than one reason.  Whenever I play Brainstorm in TPS, I always put the card I want most on top in case my hand is Duressed.  Often the bad information causes the opponent to take a card that isn't important to the combo.  A lot of times though, without Brainstorm, the best card is Duressed and I'm left relying the top cards.  TPS, unlike Grim, is built to survive such conditions.

Your sample size was probably too small.  Losing two Brainstorms (since, in Grim Long, Ponder is functionally equiv) was not enough to make Grim Long turn from whatever it was to what you described.    I did quite a bit of Grim Long testing, and I found that it was just as consistent and even a little bit faster on the median hand (not the explosive hand).

I'm goldfishing your list right now and most hands don't have Brainstorm like they would a few years ago.  In fact, I see it less than ancestral.  That's a huge deal.  How can I assemble bomb-after-bomb plays if I can't control my draws?  It served more than one function for Grim: it also helped trade dead draws for combos. 

If Grim Long was testing so well for you, why did it seem you were more interested in Slaver?   

Well, of course.  But my point is that the one extra card really doesn't make that much of a difference a vast majority of the time.   That additional card could have been Black Lotus, but I'm not talking about unusual circumstances.

After enough Brainstorms you're most likely going to see something unusually good at least once or twice.  Those are won games that might have been lost.  Why shouldn't that matter?

Only Pitch Long had the key explosive turn that Drain decks had trouble dealing with.    But That wasn't the game plan of Original Long.dec nor Grim Long.

Both Original Long.dec and Grim Long were desgined to throw bomb after bomb until one resolved.

Which is why Grim wouldn't beat MDG.  Unless it had an explosive hand, which Brainstorm often enabled, the first 1-2 bombs would get countered and then Gifts would resolve.

I'm not sure what the confusion is.  The fact that Tezzerett may be a quicker kill that Yawg Will has nothing to do with what my point was.   I was explaining that you were confusing having a quick kill with an early tactical game.   Scroll was an early tactic that allowed Drain decks to stay in the early game, where they usually get blown out.   Tezzeret has nothing to do with that. 

Right, sorry.  We're talking about two different things.  The reason I think Tezzeret is good is because it ends the game before the combo player is capable of recovering.  This is assuming that the Drain pilot was able to play through the first couple of turns.  This reminds me of Gifts.

I know Merchant Scroll was a huge part of the anti-combo strategy, but you don't think Drains can be good enough without it?

[Smmenen]

I'm goldfishing your list right now and most hands don't have Brainstorm like they would a few years ago.  In fact, I see it less than ancestral.  That's a huge deal.  How can I assemble bomb-after-bomb plays if I can't control my draws?

 To make up for the loss of Brainstorm, I added Thoughteizes and Ponder to Grim Long.

Let’s set up a hypo.  Suppose, with Grim Long, this was your opening hand.

City of Brass (going with a five color mana base to simplify, for the moment)
Gemstone Mine
Mox Emerald
Dark Ritual
Brainstorm
Wheel of Fortune
Grim Tutor

Top 3 cards of your library:

Duress
Mana Crypt
Tinker

Now, your turn one Brainstorm seems quite ridiculous here.  You get to set up turn two Duress and Tinker.    This is the best case scenario with Brainstorm.   In this scenario, the digging mattered at every card. 

Now, let’s turn the Brainstorm into Thoughtseize, as it would be in post-restriction Grim Long.  What happens?

The scenario looks like this:

City of Brass
Gemstone Mine
Mox Emerald
Dark Ritual
Thoughtseize
Wheel of Fortune
Grim Tutor

Top 3 cards of your library:

Duress
Mana Crypt
Tinker

Your turn one play is going to be City of Brass, Thoughtseize.

On turn two, you have a lot of options.  One would be: Duress or Wheel, another would be Dark Ritual, Durses, Wheel of Fortune.   Still another would be, Dark Ritual, Durses, Tap Mox Emerald, Grim Tutor for Ancestral and play it off Gemstone Mine.   Let’s say you just throw turn two Wheel out there for it to be countered.   You still have turn three Duress AND Grim Tutor to set up turn four Yawg Will.   Seems good. 

In any case, the lack of Brainstorm actually didn’t hurt you.  You were able to move a disruptive turn two play to a turn one play, which should partially shield your turn two bomb.

If Grim Long was testing so well for you, why did it seem you were more interested in Slaver?   

Although I made many SCG top 8s with Grim Long, I never was able to win a major tournament with it.  Instead of playing a deck that I felt would make me to 8, I wanted to play a deck that would win tournaments.  Although Slaver gets crushed by combo, I felt that it would be my best bet to win tournaments, until Tommy brought back TPS.

Only Pitch Long had the key explosive turn that Drain decks had trouble dealing with.    But That wasn't the game plan of Original Long.dec nor Grim Long.

Both Original Long.dec and Grim Long were desgined to throw bomb after bomb until one resolved.

Which is why Grim wouldn't beat MDG.  Unless it had an explosive hand, which Brainstorm often enabled, the first 1-2 bombs would get countered and then Gifts would resolve.

And why was that?   That was because MDG had 4 Merchant Scrolls.   Otherwise it couldn't assemble the resources or counterpower to stop the early onslaught.   That's why Tog couldn't, despite having md duresses, and that's why Slaver never could either, despite having T. Crypt too. 

I know Merchant Scroll was a huge part of the anti-combo strategy, but you don't think Drains can be good enough without it?

No.  Just as they were not good enough before I designed Meandeck Gifts.   Drains are still good enough to win tournaments and beat other decks, but that's just the rock paper scissors reality.   Drains trump Shops, Shops Trump Rituals, and Rituals trump Drains.   That doesn't mean that those those fundamental starting positions can't change with technology or tuning, but it's just how the circle flows. 

[desolutionist]

To make up for the loss of Brainstorm, I added Thoughteizes and Ponder to Grim Long.

Brainstorm is A LOT better than Thoughtseize and Ponder.  These cards don't even begin to make up for the loss of Brainstorm.

Your turn one play is going to be City of Brass, Thoughtseize.

I'm not sure that's a better play than turn 1 Wheel of Fortune, protected by Thoughtseize.

In any case, the lack of Brainstorm actually didn’t hurt you.  You were able to move a disruptive turn two play to a turn one play, which should partially shield your turn two bomb.

With that hand, no.  The Brainstorm slot doesn't actually even matter there; it could be Savannah Lions and you'd still win.  Consider these two hands:

Empty the Warrens
Merchant Scroll
Polluted Delta
Chain of Vapor
Thoughtseize
Duress
Timetwister

The first sample hand I draw is a mulligan.  Had Thoughtseize been a Brainstorm, this hand would actually be keepable.   

Vampiric Tutor
Polluted Delta
Tendrils of Agony
Polluted Delta
Grim Tutor
Tolarian Academy
Ponder

Another hand that is on the verge of being unkeepable.  Already I can see that if Ponder was Brainstorm, I would be able to at least shuffle away Tendrils of Agony, netting a usable card.  After Delta->USea, the top three are:

Mind's Desire
Mox Ruby
Grim Tutor

With Ponder, you would just shuffle and hope to draw something better.  With Brainstorm you're able to set up a next turn Desire for 4.

Although I made many SCG top 8s with Grim Long, I never was able to win a major tournament with it.  Instead of playing a deck that I felt would make me to 8, I wanted to play a deck that would win tournaments.  Although Slaver gets crushed by combo, I felt that it would be my best bet to win tournaments.

Heh, Grim Long definitely wouldn't be winning any tournaments.

And why was that?   That was because MDG had 4 Merchant Scrolls.   Otherwise it couldn't assemble the resources or counterpower to stop the early onslaught.   That's why Tog couldn't, despite having md duresses, and that's why Slaver never could either, despite having T. Crypt too.

There are more variables.  Tog and Slaver have slow wins compared to MDG.  What if Tog got +1/+1 for every card RFGed?  It would be a lot better against combo. 

No.  Just as they were not good enough before I designed Meandeck Gifts.   Drains are still good enough to win tournaments and beat other decks, but that's just the rock paper scissors reality.   Drains trump Shops, Shops Trump Rituals, and Rituals trump Drains.   That doesn't mean that those those fundamental starting positions can't change with technology or tuning, but it's just how the circle flows.

Tezzeret has been slaughtering TPS in testing, so I can't agree.

[Smmenen]

And why was that?   That was because MDG had 4 Merchant Scrolls.   Otherwise it couldn't assemble the resources or counterpower to stop the early onslaught.   That's why Tog couldn't, despite having md duresses, and that's why Slaver never could either, despite having T. Crypt too.

There are more variables.  Tog and Slaver have slow wins compared to MDG.  What if Tog got +1/+1 for every card RFGed?  It would be a lot better against combo. 

There are more variables, but they aren’t relevant variables.

Meandeck Gifts is not relevantly faster than Tog or Slaver.   The problem with latter two is that both of their draw engines are much slower.   Both Thirst For Knowledge and Intuition cost 3 mana, which means that they are generally turn two plays, at the earliest.   Scroll is a turn one play.   It can find turn one or turn two Force or serve as your draw engine, whichever will put you ahead quickest.   Scroll can be played before Mana Drain comes online, neither Thirst nor Intuition on a regular basis.   That’s a big reason that combo can beat Drains: their threats are faster than Drain. 

No.  Just as they were not good enough before I designed Meandeck Gifts.   Drains are still good enough to win tournaments and beat other decks, but that's just the rock paper scissors reality.   Drains trump Shops, Shops Trump Rituals, and Rituals trump Drains.   That doesn't mean that those those fundamental starting positions can't change with technology or tuning, but it's just how the circle flows.

Tezzeret has been slaughtering TPS in testing, so I can't agree.
[/quote]

That could be, but Tezzeret beating TPS probably has much more to do with the infinite counterspell shell that you’ve built around it than the speed of Tezzerett itself.   

If TPS actually cared about Drains, it could easily splash green and play Xantid Swarms.  GG. 

[desolutionist]

There are more variables, but they aren’t relevant variables.

So combo getting more/less draws and untaps isn't relevant?

That could be, but Tezzeret beating TPS probably has much more to do with the infinite counterspell shell that you’ve built around it than the speed of Tezzerett itself.  

If TPS actually cared about Drains, it could easily splash green and play Xantid Swarms.  GG. 

Haha, we'll see.

[Moxlotus]

  So combo getting more/less draws and untaps isn't relevant?

Depends on if the draws and untaps actually do anything.  Endress played a slow as balls U/w control deck at worlds because it crushed TPS.  The deck probably kills around turn 20.  It's because he replaced Merchant Scroll, a 1u counterspell essentially, with other 1u counterspells. 

[Smmenen]

  So combo getting more/less draws and untaps isn't relevant?

Depends on if the draws and untaps actually do anything.  Endress played a slow as balls U/w control deck at worlds because it crushed TPS.  The deck probably kills around turn 20.  It's because he replaced Merchant Scroll, a 1u counterspell essentially, with other 1u counterspells. 

Endress got crushed by Tommy playing TPS.   And I beat Endress in one game, lost a game in which i had the game won, and lost a third game in which I never had a chance.   

But I agree with your basic point...

There are more variables, but they aren’t relevant variables.

So combo getting more/less draws and untaps isn't relevant?

Not really, actually.  If Control is getting to the point where it can play a finisher, Yawg Will or set up a finisher or Yawg Will, it's won, most of the time.   If you have played Tezzeret, Psychatog, Slaver, or whatever, you've already won.   Combo generally tries to win before the Drain decks can set up their kill, or, apply so much pressure that they blow their entire hand away and both decks are in topdeck mode, functionally.   

The difference between Drain Tendrils Yawgmoth's WIll and BBS Tezzeret or Psychatogs Yawg Will is all irrellevant.  What matters, and the reason that Scroll decks beat Ritual decks, was because they survived the early onslaught. 

That could be, but Tezzeret beating TPS probably has much more to do with the infinite counterspell shell that you’ve built around it than the speed of Tezzerett itself.   

If TPS actually cared about Drains, it could easily splash green and play Xantid Swarms.  GG. 

Haha, we'll see.

We'll see if TPS sideboards swarms or we'll see whether TPS wins even if it has Swarms?

[desolutionist]

Not really, actually.  If Control is getting to the point where it can play a finisher, Yawg Will or set up a finisher or Yawg Will, it's won, most of the time.   If you have played Tezzeret, Psychatog, Slaver, or whatever, you've already won.   Combo generally tries to win before the Drain decks can set up their kill, or, apply so much pressure that they blow their entire hand away and both decks are in topdeck mode, functionally.  

The difference between Drain Tendrils Yawgmoth's WIll and BBS Tezzeret or Psychatogs Yawg Will is all irrellevant.  What matters, and the reason that Scroll decks beat Ritual decks, was because they survived the early onslaught.

When I played Grim Long, I remember being able to stomp anything Drain-based that wasn't Gifts.  Even if it had Merchant Scrolls.  Evenpence's 4x Scroll Intuition/AK, 2x Scroll Slaver, 2x Scroll Drain Confidant, etc.

Once Rich Shay added Gifts to Slaver, the matchup got worse.

We'll see if TPS sideboards swarms or we'll see whether TPS wins even if it has Swarms?

Either.   

What's your current TPS list?

[Smmenen]

Combo generally tries to win before the Drain decks can set up their kill, or, apply so much pressure that they blow their entire hand away and both decks are in topdeck mode, functionally.   

The difference between Drain Tendrils Yawgmoth's WIll and BBS Tezzeret or Psychatogs Yawg Will is all irrellevant.  What matters, and the reason that Scroll decks beat Ritual decks, was because they survived the early onslaught.

When I played Grim Long, I remember being able to stomp anything Drain-based that wasn't Gifts. 

Once Rich Shay added Gifts to Slaver, the matchup got worse.

I played shay when he had Gifts in Slaver, and it made no difference at all.   Gifts seemed like a completely irrelevant card in the Grim Long v. Slaver match.

What's your current TPS list?

The Perfect Storm

Stephen Menendian

2 Underground Sea
4 Polluted Delta
1 Bloodstained Mire
1 Tolarian Academy
2 Island
2 Swamp
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Jet
1 Sol Ring
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
1 Black Lotus
1 Lotus Petal
4 Dark Ritual
2 Cabal Ritual

1 Chain of Vapor
1 Rebuild
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Time Walk
1 Brainstorm
1 Ponder
1 Merchant Scroll
4 Force of Will
1 Misdirection
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Gifts Ungiven
1 Tinker
1 Timetwister
1 Mind's Desire
1 Memory Jar
4 Duress
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Imperial Seal
2 Grim Tutor
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Yawgmoth's Bargain
1 Necropotence
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Darksteel Colossus

Sideboard:
2 Island
1 Swamp
2 Hurkyl's Recall
2 Massacre
2 Pithing Needle
2 Yixlid Jailer
2 Tormod's Crypt
2 Extirpate

[Vegeta2711]

I played shay when he had Gifts in Slaver, and it made no difference at all.   Gifts seemed like a completely irrelevant card in the Grim Long v. Slaver match.

Because you T1 killed him multiple times. Not much matters with hands like those.

[Smmenen]

I played shay when he had Gifts in Slaver, and it made no difference at all.   Gifts seemed like a completely irrelevant card in the Grim Long v. Slaver match.

Because you T1 killed him multiple times. Not much matters with hands like those.

Heh, true.  But, Still, Gifts Ungiven is not a very important card in the Slaver v. Grim Long match.   To anyone (esp. Shawn) asserting that Gifts Ungiven dramatically improves Slaver's odds against Grim Long, would you say the same thing about the Belcher match?

[desolutionist]

Sideboard:
2 Island
1 Swamp
2 Hurkyl's Recall
2 Massacre
2 Pithing Needle
2 Yixlid Jailer
2 Tormod's Crypt
2 Extirpate

Massacre?  Afraid of Aven Mindcensor and Meddling Mage?  I'm not sure what it is yet, but there has to be something better against the blue aggro decks being played.  Like, the creatures don't even matter as much as what's in their hand.  For this reason I was thinking about testing post-board Mind Twist, which would give TPS another strong, turn one ritual-play.  Just an idea.

Heh, true.  But, Still, Gifts Ungiven is not a very important card in the Slaver v. Grim Long match.   To anyone (esp. Shawn) asserting that Gifts Ungiven dramatically improves Slaver's odds against Grim Long, would you say the same thing about the Belcher match?

Absolutely not.  Belcher has to invest so many cards into the combo that once its stopped it has a hard time recovering.  Games that I would lose to Gifts Ungiven would play out like this:

Turn 1: Duress or Brainstorm
Turn 2: Play a bomb (countered)
Turn 3: Set up the win for turn 4, He EOT Gifts and wins

[Smmenen]

Sideboard:
2 Island
1 Swamp
2 Hurkyl's Recall
2 Massacre
2 Pithing Needle
2 Yixlid Jailer
2 Tormod's Crypt
2 Extirpate

Massacre?  Afraid of Aven Mindcensor and Meddling Mage?  I'm not sure what it is yet, but there has to be something better against the blue aggro decks being played.  Like, the creatures don't even matter as much as what's in their hand.  For this reason I was thinking about testing post-board Mind Twist, which would give TPS another strong, turn one ritual-play.  Just an idea.

My TPS list was designed for the Milan tournament this past weekend, for teammates or friends of the team who were traveling. 

I ran a giant data analysis of European tournaments and discovered that Fish (specifically UR) was a huge part of that metagame.   I also saw that MUD/Stax decks were also big parts of the metagame.  My decklists and sb were built for that metagame.   

[desolutionist]

What happened to Darth Sidious?

[Smmenen]

He was killed at the end of Return of the Jedi. 

[Dante]

He was killed at the end of Return of the Jedi. 

His first body was killed at the end of RotJ.  The story of Palpatine continues in a series of comics.