Is Flash Really That Good?

[hitman]

@ AngryPheldagrif - Again, we're not arguing that the deck can't be beaten.  We agree it can be.  What we're saying is, we shouldn't have to play against these kinds of decks in the first place.  Look at the cards on the restricted list.  The DCI obviously has an idea in mind of what's acceptable and what's not.  Our argument is, if cards that are on the restricted list are less powerful, harder to cast, more skill-intensive, and things of this nature, why is Flash allowed to be unrestricted?  At what point is Vintage too broken?  We may not have that spelled out for us but the DCI has given us multiple examples already in the restricted list.  If we're not allowed to play with many of those cards unrestricted, why in the world are we allowed four Flash?  None of us have argued that Flash is dominating and we're just too dumb to find ways to beat this "monstrosity."  We're arguing about what the existence of these types of decks will do to the format.  The perception of this format being a turn one/two format is getting to be true.  Players in other formats laugh at Vintage and call it a waste of time because they think it's a coin-flip format.  Why argue with them if we're trying to make it that way? 

@ Lochinvar - While Flash has always been an instant, the kill couldn't be done at instant speed.  Now you can just go through the motions and stop with all creatures on board to attack with.  That's like a Tinker/Colossus play on the first turn that you now have to find an answer to without tapping out because if you do they'll just kill you in response.  That's important if their opponent has mana up because they could potentially cut you off the combo with bounce or burn.  The new Reveillark kill just gives the deck strategic superiority against everything.  You can definitely beat it, but you have to have the disruption piece in your opening hand, whether they actually have the first turn kill or not, and not mull into oblivion.  This is why hate decks have traditionally been unsuccessful.  You have to have disruption in your opening hand and it has to be appropriate.  The new kill has made every other deck in the format worse because you have to fight an uphill battle before the game begins.  You can also protect a first turn Merchant Scroll with Pact of Negation and win on your upkeep in response to the pact trigger.  The point is, even if you thought you had appropriate disruption, there's a strong possibility it won't even work against a competent opponent.  We're effectively making the format's fundamental turn, turn one.  If the game is decided on turn one against the two most powerful decks in the format, then Vintage is essentially a turn one format. 

[fury]

@ Lochinvar - While Flash has always been an instant, the kill couldn't be done at instant speed.  Now you can just go through the motions and stop with all creatures on board to attack with.

The new Flash kill with Reveillark + fanatic mogg is an instant kill, which doesn't need an attack phase.

3 Flooded Strand
2 Polluted Delta
3 Island
3 Underground Sea
2 Tropical Island
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Emerald
1 Black Lotus
1 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Force of Will
4 Pact of Negation
1 Thoughtseize
1 Chain of Vapor
4 Merchant Scroll
4 Brainstorm
3 Summoner's Pact
1 Sensei's Divining Top
1 Ponder
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Ancestral Recall
4 Flash
4 Protean Hulk
1 Body Snatcher
1 Body Double
1 Reveillark
1 Mogg Fanatic
1 Carrion Feeder

[hitman]

I know you don't need the attack phase.  I'm pointing out that you can just attack with a lot of creatures on the board until your opponent taps out, then kill them.  If they have manan up, they may be able to cut you off the combo.

[Tha Gunslinga]

 Oath, in my opinion, is a fair combo card. Yes, it can come down early, but it can't use silly things like Pact of Negation to back itself up

Player 1:  Tap Orchard and Mox Pearl, play Oath of Druids.
Player 2:  Force of Will, removing Merchant Scroll
Player 1:  Pact of Negation, targeting Force of Will
Player 2:  Oath resolves

Next turn
Player 1:  Untap, upkeep, stack the Pact trigger, then trigger Oath.  Oath up Platinum Angel.  Pact trigger resolves and does nothing.

That's like a Tinker/Colossus play on the first turn

Tinker-Colossus being totally unplayable in the current metagame, I'd suggest you find a better example.

@ Lochinvar - While Flash has always been an instant, the kill couldn't be done at instant speed. 

Except for, you know, the first kill, the Disciple of the Vault/0-cc artifact creature kill.  So yeah, I guess it could.

The new Reveillark kill just gives the deck strategic superiority against everything.

The deck is inferior to half the metagame; otherwise it would be, you know, WINNING more.  Flash is one of FOUR top decks.  The Reveillark kill makes it faster, yes, but it also lets you lose to turn 1 Pithing Needle, Extirpate, Extract, and a lot more.  Any deck with "strategic superiority against everything" would get the axe.  Flash will not.

You can definitely beat it, but you have to have the disruption piece in your opening hand, whether they actually have the first turn kill or not, and not mull into oblivion.

At SCG Chicago Paul Mastriano knocked me out in the last round with a turn 1 kill with Super Long, THROUGH a Force.  He just went "Lotus, Force your Force, Rit, Rit, Demonic Tutor, YawgWill, replay things, DT again, Tendrils."  Turn 1 kills are nothing new to Vintage.  Unless you haven't played much of it.

3Sphere does NOTHING without following Aggro/Smokestack/Wasteland-Crucible-Lock ...

Except, you know, auto-win against anyone who can't dig up 3 lands fast enough.  It also makes all your following spells uncounterable until that player gets 3 mana.

I would remove Serum Powder because I think the mechanic is awful and I can't think of a better way of damaging Ichorid.

Just as people start playing the build that doesn't run Serum Powder, we should axe it?  Even though the deck sees basically no play and has never ever dominated anything?  Why not restrict Bazaar, the engine for the deck?  Wait, that would actually hurt Ichorid, instead of doing nothing at all.

Against decks like Ichorid and Flash, you must mulligan heavily and hope for the best.

That's actually not true.  I've seen many people beat both those decks and not mulligan.  I personally have beaten both those decks without trouble.  Please don't make statements like this.


In conclusion, my team has decks that beat Flash.  Why doesn't YOURS?  Go play Empty Gifts, Tyrant Oath, DEEZ NOUGHTS, or something good, instead of playing LandStill or Slaver and complaining that your outdated tech can't handle a cutting-edge combo deck.  Control stopped being able to beat combo when PitchLong came out.  Why are people still unable to face reality?

[hitman]

How is Tinker-Colossus unplayable?  Your own brother plays it in his EmptyGifts deck.  Besides, the point was that the effect was on par with Tinker-Colossus but it can kill you in response to anything you do if you tap out.  Yeah, the disciple kill was instant speed but required more mainboard slots.  More mainboard slots for the kill means less protection and/or tutor effects.  You have a combo that uses as few slots as the Sliver kill but with instant speed benefits, synergistic with Pact of Negation, in the Reveillark kill.  I'll agree with you that Flash with the Disciple kill or any kill is busted.  I'm just saying that it's unacceptably so now. 

[AngryPheldagrif]

How is Tinker-Colossus unplayable?  Your own brother plays it in his EmptyGifts deck.  Besides, the point was that the effect was on par with Tinker-Colossus but it can kill you in response to anything you do if you tap out.  Yeah, the disciple kill was instant speed but required more mainboard slots.  More mainboard slots for the kill means less protection and/or tutor effects.  You have a combo that uses as few slots as the Sliver kill but with instant speed benefits, synergistic with Pact of Negation, in the Reveillark kill.  I'll agree with you that Flash with the Disciple kill or any kill is busted.  I'm just saying that it's unacceptably so now. 

Point of clarification: I cut Tinker-Colossus months ago.

[GUnit]

If 3 players out of 30 are playing Flash in a tournament, what are the odds that you are paired against it in the Swiss? Probably once? If you brought a deck that has great matchups across the board except for Flash, you still have an excellent chance at making top 8, even if you lost to Flash.

My problem with this argument is that magic is already a game that heavily involves chance. There is a fairly substantial chance in any given tournament that you'll end up losing a round to repeated mulligans, poor draws, etc. Now, if that round of poor luck happens to coincide with the round that you get beaten by a 5 year-old playing flash, then you're in fine shape for the top8, but if it doesn't then you might be going home early without really even having anything to say about it. That's not the kind of experience I'm looking for when I drive for an hour and spend 30 bucks to enter a tournament.

Player 1:  Tap Orchard and Mox Pearl, play Oath of Druids.
Player 2:  Force of Will, removing Merchant Scroll
Player 1:  Pact of Negation, targeting Force of Will
Player 2:  Oath resolves

Next turn
Player 1:  Untap, upkeep, stack the Pact trigger, then trigger Oath.  Oath up Platinum Angel.  Pact trigger resolves and does nothing.

You forgot the part where you have to swing 5 times in a row with a 4/4 artifact creature, or where your opponent has the stifle for your oath trigger, or the bounce spell for the platz in response to the pact trigger. Even if you were somehow instantly winning in response to the pact trigger on your next turn, at least your opponent has seen at least one turn to do something. Honestly, I would gladly play against platz oath for 7 straight rounds in a vintage tournament. A combo that takes 7  (OK, 5 if you have multiple angels) turns to kill isn't even scary in extended.

At SCG Chicago Paul Mastriano knocked me out in the last round with a turn 1 kill with Super Long, THROUGH a Force.  He just went "Lotus, Force your Force, Rit, Rit, Demonic Tutor, YawgWill, replay things, DT again, Tendrils."  Turn 1 kills are nothing new to Vintage.  Unless you haven't played much of it.

So, he had lotus, 2 dark rituals, demonic tutor, force and a blue card in his opening 7? That's a pretty nutty opener- certainly far less likely than a turn 1 flash kill, and also involving at least a modicum of thought (although that's pretty much as straightforward as storm combo gets). Every deck can draw the nuts, but a deck like superlong isn't going to do it with nearly the consistency of flash and you know it.

[Tha Gunslinga]

I'm not saying that Platinum Oath is good per se, I'm just saying that you CAN back up Oath with Pact of Negation, and anyone who states otherwise is incorrect.

[GUnit]

I think it's pretty clear that the example is out of context. The whole discussion is about game-ending plays on the first turn.

[Zherbus]

My problem with this argument is that magic is already a game that heavily involves chance. There is a fairly substantial chance in any given tournament that you'll end up losing a round to repeated mulligans, poor draws, etc. Now, if that round of poor luck happens to coincide with the round that you get beaten by a 5 year-old playing flash, then you're in fine shape for the top8, but if it doesn't then you might be going home early without really even having anything to say about it. That's not the kind of experience I'm looking for when I drive for an hour and spend 30 bucks to enter a tournament.

It happened to me in NC, only Substitute 5-year old for 10-year old. I lost the roll, he dropped some mana, cast Flash, I FoW it, he Pacts and I eat poison. Game 2 I kept a strong hand assuming I'd get to land drop #2, but there was no Leyline, so I Duress, then he FoW's, I pass the turn and he untaps and I die. I drove 5+ hours to that event and it really sucked. However, I've won so much against Flash, I knew the fluke got me. I got a single turn over the entire match, and I didn't expect he'd have the nuts both games. I mean, if we assume they have the combo in hand with counter backup every game, we'd mulligan ourselves into dog shit the times they had to take a turn or two finding pieces.

With that said, the problem, to me, lied not in how powerful the deck could be, but that it wasn't always that good. And because it wasn't always that good, it's hard to take it as a serious metagame consideration by many. You know it's there, but it could often screw itself into enough losses to hardly make a dent in the metagame. In fact, this very player went on to not get a draw bearing a large nutsack the next round and failed to top 8. It was like a ricochet deck that sometimes just got there.

Of course, that was the older Sliver kill deck. Now that the builds have a bit more punch (and as people have noted, different vulnerabilities), I am BANKING on people to play this more and I  am making every reasonable effort that this deck doesn't get me.

In short, it's flown under the radar for so long that it's never really been taken to Vintage Court. It's stolen a few radios (tournament wins) and a good amount hotel room towels (matches). But, it has now moved on to stealing more radios and has likely attained the proper attention of the court. I'd really like to see what it's chances are now that the cops are out looking for it before recommending changes. And if I end up feeling strongly opposed to it, that is what an email to Turian is for.

[Suicideking]

In short, it's flown under the radar for so long that it's never really been taken to Vintage Court. It's stolen a few radios (tournament wins) and a good amount hotel room towels (matches). But, it has now moved on to stealing more radios and has likely attained the proper attention of the court. I'd really like to see what it's chances are now that the cops are out looking for it before recommending changes. And if I end up feeling strongly opposed to it, that is what an email to Turian is for.

Agreed.  Flash has never been so strong that I've heard anyone on my team show a special consideration for the deck.  Like Ichorid you need to be aware of it, but its not an unwinable match.  Tyrant Oath showed a terrible match against it, and at the last ICBM open I beat it, and Dan Carp beat it something like 3 times.  Were we lucky, possibly.  But that doesnt change the fact even decks with terrible matchups beat it regularly.  That doesnt sound so broken.  If flash does start to show large numbers then everyone will pack leylines and extirpates, and flash will crawl back into obscurity.

[TheWhiteDragon]

You can't compare flash to trinisphere and say it is better as flash costs 2 and trini costs 3 (needing smokestack to follow).  Trini costs workshop, essentially - 1 land/trini.  It doesn't need to be followed by ANYTHING IN PARTICULAR to own the game.  ANY of the cards in stax could ruin the opponents chance of playing.  How many games do you open with, fetch, nonbasic, mox, 4 random...then your opponent drops trini.  Now you have no way to force of will if you draw one, your mana has been cut off since your mox is unplayable, and even if you draw more artifact accelerants instead of land, you never get to play a spell...with 2 mana and your opponent playing nothing other than trini to put you in that position.  A wasteland/strip will hurt you further, smokestack, etc...all without you being able to counter a thing.  This is what was meant by "not allowing interactivity"
Now, the argument that concede g1 and win g2/3 is a bad strategy is true, but it is still a viable strategy....and you don't have to concede g1.  You can still fight, use FoW, try to win as fast/faster.  As stated, most flash decks don't draw the flash/hulk, 2 mana, triple pact hand EVERY game.  Often they need to set up, or flash into a force turn 1 and need to reset.  The deck CAN get the nuts hand, but so can tendrils, dragon, stax, oath, etc.  I don't think  axing flash really makes the difference as it has little impact anyway and is highly beatable.
Leyline, as mentioned, is free and uncounterable and supportable in ANY deck as a 4 of.  It is a good card anyway to hit ichorid, bazaar stax, dragon, etc.  It doesn't warp any deck to run these.  The reason trini isn't comparable to flash is that g 2/3, there is NOTHING you can do that stops it.  Vs flash, you can run leyline AND have FoW...not just mull into FoW as it is with trini.  Trini is a game wrecker on the play AND is immune to any hate by its own doing.  Flash is a bullseye in the sight of hate and requires anti-hate cards to enable its win.
Hitting merchant scroll is a much better call, as blue shouldn't have a "DT" effect.  This would really hurt flash anyway and make it VERY hard to find its boarded in bounce spell to get around leyline g2/3.  It seems that people are complaining they shouldn't lose g1 on turn 1 and disregard g 2/3...I say if you win g 2/3 consistently with the right sb, then who cares about g1.  Again...if the Yankees win g 2-5 of the World Series, they don't give a nut hair about losing game 1.  Winning the game is great, winning the match is far superior.  Remember we aren't talking about casual vintage here, but tourney play (where DCI is concerned).

[Nehptis]

Anyone advocating the un-restriction of 3Sphere either is a Shop junky or never played MTG when 4 x 3Spheres were around.

Flash is "unfun" to play against, too.  But, not as "unfun" as old 3Sphere decks.  If Flash starts to dominate T8s with the new Rev kill then the DCI should hit MScroll first.  Because other top decks are abusing it as well, like Oath and GAT.

[Shock Wave]

Player 1:  Tap Orchard and Mox Pearl, play Oath of Druids.
Player 2:  Force of Will, removing Merchant Scroll
Player 1:  Pact of Negation, targeting Force of Will
Player 2:  Oath resolves

Next turn
Player 1:  Untap, upkeep, stack the Pact trigger, then trigger Oath.  Oath up Platinum Angel.  Pact trigger resolves and does nothing.

I really didn't want to dignify this very sorry comparison you've provided, but alas, I suggest you attempt an analogy that actually pertains to the point I was making.

At SCG Chicago Paul Mastriano knocked me out in the last round with a turn 1 kill with Super Long, THROUGH a Force.  He just went "Lotus, Force your Force, Rit, Rit, Demonic Tutor, YawgWill, replay things, DT again, Tendrils."  Turn 1 kills are nothing new to Vintage.  Unless you haven't played much of it.

Again, what we need to agree upon is what is an acceptable frequency for being able to kill your opponent on the first turn. Do you agree that the impact of being able to kill your opponent with 5% frequency and 15-20% frequency on the first turn is significant? One thing is for sure: Super/Pitch/Grim Long will never be able to boast the early kill numbers that Flash does, and can't hold a candle to the number of times Flash accomplishes this with backup.

Just as people start playing the build that doesn't run Serum Powder, we should axe it?  Even though the deck sees basically no play and has never ever dominated anything?  Why not restrict Bazaar, the engine for the deck?  Wait, that would actually hurt Ichorid, instead of doing nothing at all.

Like I said, I don't have as much of a problem with the mana version as I do with the manaless version. I would never suggest restricting Bazaar. The fact that Bazaar was perfectly fair before the advent of Ichorid suggests that Bazaar is not the problem. The Dredge mechanic is the actual problem, but there's no reasonable way to get rid of it. Serum Powder gives manaless Ichorid a very unfair tool, and really, it only fits into that deck. Nobody would cry at its loss, and people could still play manaless Ichorid, except they would be mulling into oblivion with more frequency, and that's fair for a deck that doesn't have any intention of interacting with the opponent.

That's actually not true.  I've seen many people beat both those decks and not mulligan.  I personally have beaten both those decks without trouble.  Please don't make statements like this.

I don't think you're understanding. I didn't say you "must mulligan" because I am implying that the hand of God comes down and forces you to mulligan. I'm saying that when you side in 4 copies of a 4cc enchantment that you can only play in your opening hand, and is your best avenue to victory, it is in your best interest to mulligan, and more often than not, when you don't mulligan into it, you're not going to win.

In conclusion, my team has decks that beat Flash.  Why doesn't YOURS?  Go play Empty Gifts, Tyrant Oath, DEEZ NOUGHTS, or something good, instead of playing LandStill or Slaver and complaining that your outdated tech can't handle a cutting-edge combo deck.  Control stopped being able to beat combo when PitchLong came out.  Why are people still unable to face reality?

Wow, you're so right. Can you please share your "tech" with the poor unwashed masses?  . You do realize that Landstill crushes Flash, right? You must be wondering what the problem is, in that case.

Again, you're not understanding what this argument is about. Everyone is well aware that there are solutions to Flash. You could run IHateFlash.dec full of Leylines and Extirpates and whatever else and you would probably never lose a game. This argument is about the frequency by which these decks kill their opponent before they have a chance to play, the distorting effect they have on the metagame by forcing them to run a very narrow primary solution (Leyline of the Void), and the subsequent increase in the chance element of the game as a result of having to rely more on the mulligan.

[AngryPheldagrif]

Didn't Meandeck SX reach something like a 40% first turn kill ratio? Nothing got axed from that and no one complained then.

I am thoroughly confused as to what the actual argument for restricting Flash actually is. So Landstill crushes Flash? Awesome. So do a number of other decks, ICBM decks, Meandeck decks, GWS decks, Reflection decks, etc. So what's the problem? That you have to mulligan more aggressively to find Leyline? What if you don't and are fine beating Flash anyways? Or what if you do mulligan slightly more? How is that any worse for the format than my disinclination to keep Moxen-heavy hands against a deck with 4 Chalices? Or dual-dependent hands against Wastelands? Or slow hands against Goblins?

It's called adaptation. If you expect Flash, sideboard a larger number of Leylines, Pithing Needles, Tormod's Crypts, Stifles, Extirpates, Duresses, or whatever your answer of choice. Same way if you expect a load of MUD you beef up your contingent of Heretics, Shattering Sprees, Hurkyl's Recalls, etc.

You have 'problems' with decks and cards you think are 'unfair'. You apparently seem to believe that all decks must add a million pieces of hate to compete or else get blown away by the big bad Protean bogeyman, which took an absolutely flabbergasting 11 out of 128 T8 slots according to Steve's last metagame report and from what even you've admitted loses to plenty of the other top decks with or without those million. But no, Flash can kill you first turn by pure luck, so it automatically ruins the format. Good, so let's ban Mana Clash next for the same reason.

Seriously, I've heard a million calls for restrictions, bannings, etc., but I've never heard such abject fear over something like this. Why is everyone so afraid of a deck that's really not hard at all to beat? Do I really have to post a primer on destroying Flash or something?

[Shock Wave]

Didn't Meandeck SX reach something like a 40% first turn kill ratio? Nothing got axed from that and no one complained then.

When you post statements like this, you clearly indicate that you're not following the thread, and seemingly have no interest in submitting anything to the discussion other than what fancies your whimsy. I've already addressed this issue, and every other objection you've posted, but you seem to keep reiterating your points as if doing so will make them any more valid.

[TheWhiteDragon]

In response to the "being forced into sideboarding" leylines - it isn't flash that causes this, but the occurance of decks with graveyard strategies in general.  Were flash restricted, I would probably still run leylines because I find them to be an excellent way of axing decks that rely on the grave.  The long and short of it comes to this:

Flash can kill ridiculously fast, often with counter backup, but so can other decks.
Flash can be beaten fairly easily by a number of decks, with or without leyline (it just happens to be a highly effective hate card).
Flash neither posts the tourney numbers or threat to the format to warrant restriction.
Flash's God hands are not the measure to judge, but realistically it takes more than turn 1 or gambits without counter backup.
Flash doesn't warp the format, adaptation, or interactivity as claimed (no more than charbelcher with duress)
Flash is not a threat to Vintage

Merchant scroll is a much better restriction candidate as it hits not just flash, but all decks abusing a blue "DT."

[Shock Wave]

In response to the "being forced into sideboarding" leylines - it isn't flash that causes this, but the occurance of decks with graveyard strategies in general.  Were flash restricted, I would probably still run leylines because I find them to be an excellent way of axing decks that rely on the grave.

I would contend that Leyline would see very little play without Flash and Ichorid being such imposing threats. You certainly would still have the option of using it as a solution, but you wouldn't be hedged into using it as a preventative for decks that have a high probability of killing you before you get to play.

Flash can kill ridiculously fast, often with counter backup, but so can other decks.

Other decks absolutely cannot kill you on the first turn with the frequency that Flash can boast, and absolutely not with counter backup. The other archetypes that can accomplish first turn kills are either extremely difficult to pilot, extremely fragile, or both.

Flash can be beaten fairly easily by a number of decks, with or without leyline (it just happens to be a highly effective hate card).

Flash can be hedged against, but it distorts the metagame by forcing decks into very narrow solutions (such as Leyline) and effectively reduces the viability of previously playable archetypes because of its blistering speed.

Flash neither posts the tourney numbers or threat to the format to warrant restriction.

Currently this is true, although it has demonstrated the ability to win large, competitive events and posts Top 8s fairly consistently.

Flash's God hands are not the measure to judge, but realistically it takes more than turn 1 or gambits without counter backup.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. Flash kills its opponents on Turn 1 with greater frequency than any deck in the history of this game. It is indicative of an approach towards Vintage critical mass. This is a problem.

Flash doesn't warp the format, adaptation, or interactivity as claimed (no more than charbelcher with duress)

Absolutely it does. Not only does it warp the metagame and deck construction in the manners which I've already described, it increases the chance element of this game by placing a higher premium on the mulligan.

Flash is not a threat to Vintage

... not if you enjoy watching magic degenerate into blackjack.

Merchant scroll is a much better restriction candidate as it hits not just flash, but all decks abusing a blue "DT."

You may be right about this. Restricting Merchant Scroll may reduce the number of early card permutations Flash can arrive at which cumulatively result in its current frequency of Turn 1 kills. It may make the deck so awful that its only hope of winning is a relatively high, but overall slim chance on the first turn. This would be reasonable, but I fear it wouldn't be enough. I think Flash would still be highly competitive with a single Merchant Scroll, but I do agree that Scroll is a tutor that has become a problem in Vintage and needs attention.

[forests failed you]

I am confused:

Why is even remotely good for Vintage to have a two card combo (only one of the cards has to be played) that for two mana wins the game at instant speed?  And, just randomly wins the game on the first turn with a frequency that is probably the highest of any Vintage deck ever.

I guess I just don't understand why that is fair.  I feel like if Wizards printed a card that said win the game it would probably cost more than two mana and not be a blue instant.

Yes, it can be beaten.  However, its really difficult to beat, and even more difficult to beat consistently without a deck that is playing cards specifically for the purpose of beating Flash.

At Ben--The example that you gave of casting Oath and getting Platz with Pact backup being busted--If your opponent plays Flash you lose, regardless of whether you have Platz in play or not because they can kill it with the recurring Fanatic.

I really enjoy magic, and Vintage is one of my favorite formats of all time.  I like the fact that you can play with old powerful cards--However, I say I like to be able to 'play' with old powerful cards.  Having decks around that are so fast that consistently people don't even get to play is silly.  

People don't go to events to try and win coin flips, or pray that they draw Leyline of the Void in their opening hand.  Most players enjoy actually playing the game.  The majority of players enjoy playing the game.  I think that it is ridiculous that Wizards should let non-interactive combo decks that kill on the first or second turn consistently via a cast of all unrestricted cards continue to thrive.  In my opinion that is catoring to the crowd of players that they should be least worried about apeasing--If Flash gets restricted they will move on and play the next most unfair deck, and I am fine with that.  What I am not fine with is having decks like Flash around that are so absurdly powerful and quick that in order to stand a chance, you have to play with a bunch of cards specifically for hosing their combo.

Both Flash and Dredge are perversions of what playing Magic is about.  The decks are streamlined to the max and simply don't interact in any way whatsoever.  Also, they are both absurdly fast and can't be beaten unless a player wins faster (which is problematic for two reasons 1. it can't be good for a format to have decks faster than the turn 1.5 combo decks, and 2. most decks that can win on the first or second turn can't do it nearly as consistently as Flash and Dredge do) therefore, the only way to win is to sideboard (or even maindeck) a bunch of narrow hate decks to stop these degenerate stratagies and hope that you draw them.  In a sense, playing in a Vintage tournament where these decks are popular is almsot the same thing as sitting across from somebody and flipping coins to see who wins.  

The fact that Vintage players have the attitude that this sort of thing is okay is exactly the reason that Vintage doesn't get taken seriously by people who play other formats and why we have so much trouble trying to bring new players on board.  Flash, Dredge, Trinisphere, its just part of the format that you have to get used to--

Skilled players, as a majority want nothing to do with our format because of logic like that, because it takes all the skill out of the game.  I'm sorry, but choosing to play Leyline in one's sideboard and then being lucky enough to draw it is not skill--its a little common sense and luck.  Assuming as you guys say that Leyline's beat Flash--(and they don't, it is not that hard to beat a Leyline with a deck full of blue cards post board), either playing the best deck (flash) or a hate deck (leylines) puts one in a position where if the leyline player has it they win, if they don't draw it the flash wins.  That sounds like a world of fun, please, sign me up because that sounds sweet.

Vintage has lots of unfair cards that are not restricted:  True.

However, of those cards that are not restricted Flash is far and way the most outrageous and most unfair.
Flash is more obnoxious than at least half of the cards on the restricted list today, as is Bazaar.

The fact that Vintage players like the fact that the format is 'broken' and 'unfair,' is probably the worst attitude that people could have.  All that having non interactive decks and overpowered cards floating around as 4 ofs does is make the format stale, boring, and most importantly NOT FUN.

The more I think about it the more I realize that Wizards was exactly right for Restricting Trinisphere for being non interactive and not fun.  I agree, that 3sphere was could be beaten and that it wasn't necessarily the best deck in the format--however, there is no reason that decks should be able to essentially lock up the game on the first turn if their opponent doesn't have FOW.  

I will bet anybody straight up that Flash gets restricted in Vintage during the next set of restrictions.  No money obviously, but just for the sake of saying I was right and that I know what I am talking about.  Any takers who want to say that I am wrong feel free to step right up and say so.

I am going to play Flash from here on out until it is restricted--and Ben you can play your Leylines...  We'll see what happens.  Perhaps, we could just flip a coin at the start of the match for a winner and go grab a few beers instead of even bothering to play.

Cheers

[TheWhiteDragon]

I was under the impression that this was a discussion about how flash is destroying Vintage.  As it is, the numbers don't show it in tourneys because it can be beaten, and it isn't that hard.  I play a tyrant oath build the majority of the time now, and I have no trouble wiping the floor with flash.  I run counters, and I board in leylines...and I don't have to mutilate my deck to do it.  Leyline isn't the "win game" plan, but it slows my opponenet to be able to win, whereas my opponent needs to board to hate my hate and not my deck...I'm fine with that trade.
Also, to the comment that trinistax was beatable...I played in two starcitygames tourneys in Richmond and won 2 lotuses - the first with The Man Show (running 4 trinis) that didn't lose a single game, not match, GAME, until the semi finals.  That's how degenerate 4 3spheres were.  The next lotus came at the hands of The Riddler - with 4 3spheres.  Trinisphere with ANY kind of clock was GG and my opponents couldn't do jack to stop it.  No sideboard answers, no maindeck hate...NOTHING.  I loved the card, but it was rightfully restricted.
Flash doesn't have nearly this effect.  I love being able to get into a counter war over flash and have my opponent die by his own PoN.  The leylines are NOT crap that I am forced to play, but are highly efficient graveyard hate.  If flash were not around, I would still run 4.  If ichorid AND Flash were not around, I'd consider other alternatives, but would possibly STILL run leylines.  They are great vs decks that use the grave, not just anti-flash.  Stop saying that Leylines are "specifically for beating flash."
If you really want to hurt flash, go for merchant scroll as it is out of the color wheel (even in light of the timespiral juxtapositions), hits the degeneracies of several decks, makes gush more fair, and allows for gifts ungiven's restriction to be effective.
As far as Forest's "The fact that Vintage players like the fact that the format is 'broken' and 'unfair,' is probably the worst attitude that people could have.  All that having non interactive decks and overpowered cards floating around as 4 ofs does is make the format stale, boring, and most importantly NOT FUN." - we are talking about Vintage tourneys in a field of many viable decks all with a solid ability to beat flash (as represented by the numbers).  If you want tourneys to be fair and fun with a limited brokenness with ivory towers and pearled unicorns, then play Type 2.  Vintage has not, and I dare say will not, suffer at the hands of flash, so it should be left unrestricted.  As mentioned before, hitting merchant scroll will take the edge off flashes power just fine and would hurt decks in general that want to use a blue demonic to get its enabler.

[Lemnear]

You can't compare flash to trinisphere and say it is better as flash costs 2 and trini costs 3 (needing smokestack to follow).  Trini costs workshop, essentially - 1 land/trini.  It doesn't need to be followed by ANYTHING IN PARTICULAR to own the game.  ANY of the cards in stax could ruin the opponents chance of playing.  How many games do you open with, fetch, nonbasic, mox, 4 random...then your opponent drops trini.  Now you have no way to force of will if you draw one, your mana has been cut off since your mox is unplayable, and even if you draw more artifact accelerants instead of land, you never get to play a spell...with 2 mana and your opponent playing nothing other than trini to put you in that position.  A wasteland/strip will hurt you further, smokestack, etc...all without you being able to counter a thing.  This is what was meant by "not allowing interactivity"
...
Now, the argument that concede g1 and win g2/3 is a bad strategy is true, but it is still a viable strategy....and you don't have to concede g1.  You can still fight, use FoW, try to win as fast/faster.  As stated, most flash decks don't draw the flash/hulk, 2 mana, triple pact hand EVERY game.  Often they need to set up, or flash into a force turn 1 and need to reset.  The deck CAN get the nuts hand, but so can tendrils, dragon, stax, oath, etc.  I don't think  axing flash really makes the difference as it has little impact anyway and is highly beatable.
...
Hitting merchant scroll is a much better call, as blue shouldn't have a "DT" effect.  This would really hurt flash anyway and make it VERY hard to find its boarded in bounce spell to get around leyline g2/3.  It seems that people are complaining they shouldn't lose g1 on turn 1 and disregard g 2/3...I say if you win g 2/3 consistently with the right sb, then who cares about g1. 

Think it's kinds funny ... complain 'bout the fact that you can't force with 3Sphere on the table IF YOU DRAW IT. Against Flash that ends the game at least turn 2 you'll be very luck if you EVER draw a card. Moreover the topic "I can't play my moxen... *cry*" I (myself a Long player) took several hits by 1st turn chalice at 0 or Null Rods ... as you can imagine, it sucks to have all that moxen in hand or field unable to cast anything without drawing lands. Here we are. Should I call for restriction of Null rod or chalice? No. With that argument I could blame every fish player to cut my mana via Stifle, wasteland, null rod. I remember my teammate crippling a Flash-Player with Ichorid by dropping chalice at 0 ... no moxen ... no summoners pact.

True that Workshop + Trinisphere is very lame 4 the opponent but I saw several Staxxx-Players locked themselves out of the game with a drawn wasteland of an opponent. Rejoining the Game with Staxxx without drawn moxen (thx to 3Sphere) and lots of expensive artifacts is not that easy. Back then I can remember playing Energy Flux or even Annul saves the day. Finally Staxx has (except 5c based) no posibility to tutor that two cards to hit the Sphere at least turn 2. Merchant scroll + Pact gives the deck consistency other combo-decks will dream of (remember ... I know about). I do not argue that 3Sphere is fair and it shows that Slaver/Staxx ruled supreme that time (With Slaver being World Champoinship deck back then) but dummy-piloted-techs that spoil the fun of gaming even drives away people from the format will not help to make vintage a attractive format.

But at one point I have to agree ... the restriction of Merchant Scroll. Clearly it will take a hit on Flash but I'm worried about how shortsighten it would be. Without it the whole Gush engine becomes petty random ... maybe worse. None the less it would kick "control" out of many decks even the format. I could imagine how Long would rise without opponts scrolling out Force by Force. The counterwalls would be like hurdles. Can't imagine that anyone would have a combo-meta to come back.

A last word to leylines: I would rather prefer crypt over leyline if flash wasn't around because I can use it all the time I draw it but I agree that Graveyard-hate is very nessesary today ... not only against Ichorid & Flash. But ... as I told before ... being forced to play specific cards MB/SB (Leyline void/singularity (outdated thx to Reveillark), Pithing needle) or simply loose is not the way any format should go ... that is also an indicator of a healthy meta to me.

[TheWhiteDragon]

I'll admit my throwing in of "can't force if ou draw it" was more a statement of obvious as opposed to the nutsness of 3sphere.  The fact is, without FoW in hand and on the draw, any deck that goes first turn nuts just won the game on you.  But as far as the moxen, I was implying that trini cuts off mana development.  A totally keepable hand of 2 land, confidant, brainstorm, ancestral, duress, demonic becomes totally locked out by a 3sphere.  And yes, wasteland can ruin the day of someone who plays workshop, trini, pass...but normally, on the play, they will also drop their moxen, have more than 1 land in their hand, and even if you use your landdrop to hit their shop, they can draw 1 land that puts them into playable spells (like crucible), you on the other hand need 3 land drops.  Yes, trini has its foils, but they are extremely limited and situational, and we can both agree it needs to be restricted.
I don't think flash is a format warping deck though.  It is somewhat mindless to play, as mulliganing is the major skill in piloting it, but it is highly beatable, as you pointed out with the ichorid/chalice situation.  Without Merchant scroll, the rightfull restriction candidate as it is the only good DT effect still unrestricted (and in the wrong color), the deck loses a lot of clout.  Gush/fastbond is still a good engine, just not the ridiculous Scroll -> Gush -> draw my whole deck engine that it is.
It seems to be the common argument that Flash will deter new players from playing in Vintage.  I think, as it is still highly beatable and doesn't warp T8 standings as is, that it offers a less skilled noob to play in a tournament and actually do decently, probably not T8 though.  Whereas without this option, they are relegated to playing a bad burn deck or stompy as it is on their skill level, or run a complicated puzzle deck that they can't pilot with adequecy, and get crushed by the competent Vintage players with a full set of power that dominate the tourneys.  To me, if I were an unexperienced Vintage player, I would rather stand a chance with a deck that takes minimal skill until I adjusted to the format and moved on to better, versitle, skill-intensive decks rather than just get my butt handed to me 8 rounds straight because I run an inferior deck or a deck I have no understanding of against an experienced field.  The later would make me much more likely to stick to drafting T2 than trying out Vintage.

[madmanmike25]

After reading this thread it appears that Flash is a deck that seems to have a very high percentage chance to 'Critical Strike'(win turn 1).  Many Vintage decks have that possibility and it seems as though Flash just has a higher chance to crit that some people deem unfair.

Concerning "Most players enjoy playing actual games" argument, you have to respect those people who don't.  The allure of paying a small entry fee to hopefully win some Power can be all that it takes to make someone put down Fish and pick up Flash.  Flash just seems to be better/safer at comboing out than any other deck currently.  I understand that most of us want real games, just don't denounce those that choose to go all out.  I'm certain that people would think it was 'lame' and 'unfun' to lose to a first turn Belcher taking 20 dmg to the head.  I am not saying Belcher is the same as Flash by any means(it's not), but it is ideal for every Belcher deck to win turn 1 and they can achieve that.  The day a "Chimp" picks up Flash and rides it into a T8 we better call Charlton Heston out of retirement.

But it does lead us right back to Shockwaves question;  What is an acceptable probability to win first turn in Vintage?  I honestly don't know.  15%?

Is the fact that Flash has a 0cc backup more of the problem?  Is PoN restriction worthy?

The only solution I see is a simple one;  Keep an eye on Flash and Merchant Scroll and axe them if they actually DO end up warping the format.  Some might say they already have...but I don't think the numbers are there just yet.

Mike

P.S.  Did someone seriously suggest restricting Bazaar???   That would be terrible for Vintage.

[GrandpaBelcher]

It seems to be the common argument that Flash will deter new players from playing in Vintage.  I think, as it is still highly beatable and doesn't warp T8 standings as is, that it offers a less skilled noob to play in a tournament and actually do decently, probably not T8 though.  Whereas without this option, they are relegated to playing a bad burn deck or stompy as it is on their skill level, or run a complicated puzzle deck that they can't pilot with adequecy, and get crushed by the competent Vintage players with a full set of power that dominate the tourneys.  To me, if I were an unexperienced Vintage player, I would rather stand a chance with a deck that takes minimal skill until I adjusted to the format and moved on to better, versitle, skill-intensive decks rather than just get my butt handed to me 8 rounds straight because I run an inferior deck or a deck I have no understanding of against an experienced field.  The later would make me much more likely to stick to drafting T2 than trying out Vintage.

I don't buy this.  For the most part, Vintage decks aren't any harder to play than decks from other formats.  Sure there will be an adjustment period (there would be for me too if I decided to play Extended tomorrow), but there's no reason for the existence a deck with training wheels just to get people into the format.  If you're going to borrow, proxy, or sleeve up a deck you've never played before and go to a tournament with it, good luck and have fun, but there's nothing that says you should expect to win.  Interested new players will find something interesting or pilotable whether Flash is in the format or not.

Also, Flash rewards the lucky player, but like any deck, it rewards the prepared player better.  If the beginner deck is powerful, good players will gravitate towards it as well and will have better results with it.  The question is whether the luck and skill differential is great enough.

[Zherbus]

Gotta lock this. It's extremely repetitive with spikes of heat, while dangerously in the B/R topic.