ICBM Open #3 Results--TO Report aka Flash is clearly not a contender

[Tha Gunslinga]

So, I held a tournament for a Lotus.  45 people showed up, including some from Ohio, as well as a large GWS contingent.  This was probably the most competitive field I have EVER seen--we had SIX former Starcity Champions playing, four of whom made top 8:
Tommy Kolowith
Jeremy Seroogy
Owen Turtenwald
Jamison Bryant
Brian Fisher
Matt Morrison

as well as perennial SCG top-4 and top-8ers Dan Carp and Mat Endress. 

The metagame proved to be very low on Flash, and extremely fragmented in general, as is typical with a Milwaukee metagame.
Here's a full breakdown:
5 Flash (Reveillark combo)
5 Empty Gifts
4 Control Slaver
4 Goblins
3 DEEZ NOUGHTS
3 Fish
3 Long
2 Bomberman
2 Tyrant Oath
2 Mana Ichorid
2 Counterbalance aggro/Control
1 Dem Goyfs
1 Red Burn
1 Tyrant Blue
1 Landstill
1 UR Control
1 Shop Aggro w/red
1 Mono-Black Control
1 4-color Tog
1 Sui Black
1 5-color Shop Aggro

The top 8 was EIGHT totally different decks.  Here are final standings:

1. Jim McCarthy (Tyrant Oath)
2. Jamison Bryant (GobLines)
3. Shawn Williams (Bomberman)
4. Peter Ambrose (Fish)
5. Jeremy Seroogy (Mana Ichorid)
6. Tyler Passow (Psychatog)
7. Matt Morrison  (Flash)
8. Brian Fisher (Empty Gifts)


The tourney was a lot of fun to run.  I was quite surprised to have people make it in from Ohio, and it was nice to see all the GWSers come out.  It's been a while since Jeremy Seroogy has done this well, but Mana Ichorid seems to suit him pretty well; he went 4-0-2 through the swiss, not dropping a single game.  While many people at the tournament thought that Flash should be restricted, that was not an overwhelming sentiment, and the results speak for themselves.  This is not a Flash-heavy environment, nor is Flash particularly dangerous.  One top 8 out of 5 playing is statistically average, and while I did notice at least one turn 1 kill with Flash, it wasn't particularly disturbing.  Flash didn't advance out of the top 8 anyway, so it's not like the deck is *that* good.

Anyway, thanks everyone for coming out and playing your best.  We had an incredibly smooth tournament, other than a minor re-pair and a few missing cards from Tyler's deck in the top 8.  I think my first judge call was second or third round.  The next ICBM Open will be on a Saturday due to overwhelming support for switching the day.  I don't have a date yet, but it will probably be early to mid-May.   I'm looking at something like BB Mox for first, WB Mox for second, Italian Drains for 3/4, and 5-8 getting blue duals.  Hope to see everyone there!

1st.
Jim McCarthy
Tyrant Oath

4 Forbidden Orchard
1 Island
3 Flooded Strand
2 Polluted Delta
2 Tropical Island
1 Volcanic Island
3 Underground Sea
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Jet
1 Lotus Petal
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
2 Tidespout Tyrant
1 Brain Freeze
1 Flash of Insight
1 Krosan Reclamation
4 Oath of Druids
4 Gush
4 Brainstorm
4 Ponder
2 Thoughtseize
1 Duress
4 Force of Will
1 Chain of Vapor
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
3 Merchant Scroll
1 Fastbond
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Time Walk

SB:
4 Leyline of the Void
2 Red Elemental Blast
2 Duress
2 Extirpate
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Spawning Pit
1 Rebuild
1 Ancient Grudge


2nd.
Jamison Bryant (ICBM)
GobLines

1 Mox Ruby
2 Wooded Foothills
6 Mountain
1 Lotus Petal
4 Badlands
1 Black Lotus
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mox Jet
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Goblin Lackey
4 Mogg Fanatic
4 Goblin Matron
4 Goblin Piledriver
4 Goblin Warchief
4 Leyline of the Void
3 Taurean Mauler
4 Goblin Ringleader
4 Earwig Squad
2 Skirk Prospector
1 Goblin Sharpshooter
1 Stingscourger

SB:
2 Goblin Bombardment
3 Pyrostatic Pillar
3 Shattering Spree
4 Red Elemental Blast
3 Extirpate


3rd.
Shawn Williams
Bomberman

4 Flooded Strand
4 Tundra
2 Polluted Delta
3 Island
1 Plains
1 Strip Mine
1 Library of Alexandria
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Ruby
1 Sol Ring
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Pithing Needle
1 Black Lotus
1 Aether Spellbomb
1 Crucible of Worlds
1 Darksteel Colossus
1 Jotun Grunt
1 Sword to Plowshares
3 Aven Mindcensor
3 Auriok Salvagers
4 Brainstorm
4 Mana Drain
4 Force of Will
3 Spell Snare
1 Misdirection
4 Trinket Mage
1 Tormod's Crypt
1 Tinker
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Time Walk

SB:
4 Meddling Mage
3 Energy Flux
3 Seal of Cleansing
2 Swords to Plowshares
3 Threads of Disloyalty


4th.
Peter Ambrose
Fish

2 Island
4 Flooded Strand
1 Plains
3 Tundra
2 Polluted Delta
1 Strip Mine
4 Wasteland
2 Volcanic Island
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Black Lotus
4 Brainstorm
1 Mox Pearl
1 Echoing Truth
4 Force of Will
1 Mox Sapphire
3 Swords to Plowshares
1 Time Walk
1 Mox Ruby
1 Fact or Fiction
1 Lotus Petal
1 Fire/Ice
4 Daze
2 Merchant Scroll
4 Meddling Mage
4 Gorilla Shaman
3 Jotun Grunt
3 Stifle

SB:
4 Tormod's Crypt
1 Engineered Explosives
2 Mogg Fanatic
3 Kataki, War's Wage
4 Red Elemental Blast
1 Hurkyl's Recall


5th.
Jeremy Seroogy (ICBM)
Mana Ichorid

4 Bazaar of Baghdad
4 Cephalid Coliseum
4 City of Brass
1 Gemstone Mine
1 Lion's Eye Diamond
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Black Lotus
1 Lotus Petal
1 Angel of Despair
1 Cephalid Sage
1 Flame-Kin Zealot
4 Narcomoeba
3 Ichorid
4 Golgari Grave-Troll
2 Golgari Thug
4 Leyline of the Void
1 Ancestral Recall
3 Careful Study
4 Breakthrough
4 Bridge from Below
3 Dread Return
4 Cabal Therapy
4 Stinkweed Imp

SB:
4 Chain of Vapor
4 Emerald Charm
1 Blazing Archon
1 Gemstone Mine
2 Darkblast
3 Pithing Needle


6th.
Tyler Passow
Psychatog

4 Brainstorm
4 Force of Will
4 Gush
3 Spell Snare
3 Merchant Scroll
2 Mana Drain
2 Ponder
2 Misdirection
2 Duress
3 Thoughtseize
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Time Walk
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Echoing Truth
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Fastbond
1 Empty the Warrens
2 Psychatog
2 Island
2 Underground Sea
2 Tropical Island
2 Volcanic Island
1 Bloodstained Mire
4 Polluted Delta
1 Flooded Strand
1 Black Lotus
1 Lotus Petal
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Jet

SB:
3 Tarmogoyf
4 Leyline of the Void
3 Extirpate
2 Pyroblast
2 Trickbind
1 Empty the Warrens


7th.
Matt Morrison (GWS)
Flash

4 Flash
4 Protean Hulk
2 Summoner's Pact
1 Mogg Fanatic
1 Carrion Feeder
1 Reveillark
1 Body Snatcher
1 Body Double
4 Merchant Scroll
4 Brainstorm
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Time Walk
4 Force of Will
4 Pact of Negation
1 Abeyance
1 Chain of Vapor
4 Polluted Delta
2 Flooded Strand
2 Island
2 Underground Sea
1 Tundra
1 Black Lotus
1 Lotus Petal
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mana Crypt
1 Misdirection

SB:
4 Leyline of the Void
3 Reverant Silence
3 Chalice of the Void
1 Tinker
1 Darksteel Colossus
2 Rebuild
1 Hurkyl's Recall


8th.
Brian Fisher (GWS)
Empty Gifts

3 Thoughtseize
2 Duress
1 Pyroblast
1 Red Elemental Blast
2 Misdirection
2 Mana Drain
4 Force of Will
4 Gush
4 Brainstorm
4 Merchant Scroll
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Time Walk
1 Gifts Ungiven
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Fastbond
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Mystical Tutor
2 Empty the Warrens
1 Regrowth
1 Chain of Vapor
1 Engineered Explosives
4 Polluted Delta
2 Flooded Strand
2 Volcanic Island
2 Tropical Island
3 Underground Sea
1 Island
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mana Crypt

SB:
2 Pithing Needle
2 Extirpate
2 Trickbind
1 Tinker
1 Darksteel Colossus
1 Pyroblast
1 Red Elemental Blast
3 Krosan Grip
2 Threads of Disloyalty

[Smmenen]

Golden Age indeed. 

[M.Solymossy]

Ben:  I played Dark Illusions, not Deez Naughts.  Although they look similar, they both play INCREDIBLY different.   Just so you know

This tournament was grand.   It was nice of Wang Chung(Yangtime) and Tweener with the itty bitty wiener(Twaun) to make it out.   Hopefully you guys can make it to more!

[Zherbus]

I noticed the Empty Gifts player added two lands in the 'floating' slots. How awesome was that? The land count always was a concern in my testing.

[AngryPheldagrif]

I noticed the Empty Gifts player added two lands in the 'floating' slots. How awesome was that? The land count always was a concern in my testing.

I talked with him about it while I deck checked him before T8. He actually used the first floating slot of Engineered Explosives and the second for a land, then cut Petal for a land. It seemed to work out pretty well for him.

I wasn't quite able to get there, ending up dropping at 2-2. I lost a miserable match against Mana Ichorid in which I was killed on turn 1, then later was eliminated by simple virtue of a mirror match in which his draws far overpowered mine.

Dropping after round 4 did add the benefit of having me as a roving judge which did seem to smooth things out a bit more. Overall another insanely well-run and fun tournament from Ben.

[Zherbus]

I wasn't quite able to get there, ending up dropping at 2-2. I lost a miserable match against Mana Ichorid in which I was killed on turn 1, then later was eliminated by simple virtue of a mirror match in which his draws far overpowered mine.

Sounds awesome, makes me wish I had a means to be in the mid-west area.

Were you with Tyrant Oath? The mirror has always been a disturbing subject for me there.

[RitNecroWin]

Congrats on another well-run tournament Ben. A truly diverse and competitive Meta. Kudos to all who top 8'ed. I agree 100% with your assesment of Flash in the current environment. It's nice to see "the proof in the pudding."
Hopefully the PGH chapter of Meandeck will make it to the next one.

[Akuma]

I agree 100% with your assesment of Flash in the current environment. It's nice to see "the proof in the pudding."

I agree as well, but it seems like the restriction "band wagon" is giving Flash so much attention that some areas are seeing/will see a spike in the numbers. If I was a Vintage novice, why wouldn't I play this grossly overpowered monstrosity...

[AngryPheldagrif]

Were you with Tyrant Oath? The mirror has always been a disturbing subject for me there.

Unfortunately I'd gone with Empty Gush for this one and the metagame was too short on my best matchups for me to get there. Empty Gush ended up being tied for most played with 5 pilots including myself.

[Suicideking]

The tourney was pretty awesome.  Unfortunetly, 4-2 didnt get it done for me.  However, there is an insane level of fun and competition at these tourneys.  Props to Ben for running them and helping keep midwest vintage strong.

[Pitlord]

Agree with everyone above. Everything went very smoothly, and the event was a lot of fun. I was the Red-shop guy, except I was playing Stax, not shop aggro. I always play shops, and the only way I had of competing was with 4 Caps and 4 Moon Men. No juggernauts or aggro pieces at all.

The meta was great, I ended at a disappointing 3-3, but playing against a total of 4 different archetypes in 6 rounds was pretty sweet. And although I still hate flash as a deck, power-wise it's fine, and it's only slightly more annoying than other decks.

[coyoteuglly]

From what I was being told leading up to the event, there were suppost to be approximately 10 Flash decks.  With everyone else playing a lot of hate in the sideboard.  I was suppost to be playing Flash and ended up audibling into Control Slaver the night before figuring it was a "safer" choice, given all the hate that was suppost to be showing up. 

You also said it yourself Ben... the format was 5 Flash decks and 40 decks designed to beat Flash.  In my opinion that still makes Flash format warping.  It was like the last Extended season.  You had Ichorid vs anti Ichorid.  But in that situation I am pretty sure Wizards didn't ban anything because they are hoping the format rotating this fall will fix the problem.  But in T1 there isn't the bonus of format rotation.  So the metagame will continue to be Flash vs Anti Flash. 

Also this was a Milwaukee event.  When is the last time a Milwaukee event had one archetype show up in dominating numbers?  The last time I can think of was a year ago when everyone showed up with URBana Fish.  Before that I'm not really sure.

[ErkBek]

Jamison's goblin list is hot!

You also said it yourself Ben... the format was 5 Flash decks and 40 decks designed to beat Flash.  In my opinion that still makes Flash format warping.  It was like the last Extended season.  You had Ichorid vs anti Ichorid.  But in that situation I am pretty sure Wizards didn't ban anything because they are hoping the format rotating this fall will fix the problem.  But in T1 there isn't the bonus of format rotation.  So the metagame will continue to be Flash vs Anti Flash. 

Andy is so spot on. Flash largely can be blamed for only 2 Workshop decks being in attendance and allowed Dan to play 12 land control.

Yes, Flash is beatable, I totally agree. Flash is warping the metagame though. Mana Drains and Workshops are both being killed off by Flash.

Look at the metagame. 8 different archetypes and you’re complaining about the metagame? Get over Flash!

When are Wisconsin tournaments not diverse? 

[Smmenen]

Jamison's goblin list is hot!

You also said it yourself Ben... the format was 5 Flash decks and 40 decks designed to beat Flash.  In my opinion that still makes Flash format warping.  It was like the last Extended season.  You had Ichorid vs anti Ichorid.  But in that situation I am pretty sure Wizards didn't ban anything because they are hoping the format rotating this fall will fix the problem.  But in T1 there isn't the bonus of format rotation.  So the metagame will continue to be Flash vs Anti Flash. 

Andy is so spot on. Flash largely can be blamed for only 2 Workshop decks being in attendance and allowed Dan to play 12 land control.

Yes, Flash is beatable, I totally agree. Flash is warping the metagame though. Mana Drains and Workshops are both being killed off by Flash.

Any deck that people expect to show up in big numbers is metagame warping.   When Mana Drain decks were best, people played decks aimed at them, often Fish decks with Null Rods, etc.  When Gush decks are top deck, you get SCG Chicagos where RG beats hater decks win and then decks like MUD winning tournaments.   

[AngryPheldagrif]

Andy is so spot on. Flash largely can be blamed for only 2 Workshop decks being in attendance and allowed Dan to play 12 land control.

Yes, Flash is beatable, I totally agree. Flash is warping the metagame though. Mana Drains and Workshops are both being killed off by Flash.

I played the same deck I T8ed two SCGs with. Sure the fact that it beats up on Flash figured into my consideration, but no more than when I used to play Oath because it beat up on Fish and Long. Or playing Long to beat up on Slaver. Or playing R/G beats to beat up on GAT.

The last part of your statement is largely incorrect if you look at the actual trends and matchups. Mana Drains have been dead for a long time now, killed first by Gifts and later by GAT, now in a designer sense by the fact that Duress effects are everywhere and available in double the quantity. Workshops are rendered obsolete by Tyrant Oath far more than Flash.

And in all seriousness, having browsed all 45 lists as well as some basic analysis, calling the metagame 5 Flash and 40 anti-Flash is a horrible misconception. In fact, sideboards look largely the same as they always have, with a mix of graveyard hate, Workshop hate, blue card hate, etc. There were 20 Leylines in the T8. And yet over a year ago at the January 07 Waterbury (months before Flash was de-errata'd and even before Ichorid gained its Future Sight insanity), there were 16 Leylines in the T8. I hardly think a 25% increase relative to the entry of two monstrous graveyard-based decks into the format qualifies as horribly metagame warping.

[Smmenen]

In my two most recent metagame analysis articles, I pointed out that 50% of top 8 decklists were Gush decks and Workshop decks.  Before Gush was released from the restricted list and before Lorywn was released, Workshops were much fewer.   While it is difficult to prove, it is very difficult to imagine that the substantial rise in Workshops can be explained by anything other than the fact that they are perfect predators for Gush based decks.   

Thus, as from October 2007 through February 2008, with 50% of the metagame being Workshop and Gush decks, you effectively have a Gush v. Anti-Gush metagame, even though that's only 50% of the decks.  No other archetype is much above 10% of the metagame after Gush and Shops.   

Flash isn't even 10% of top 8s in the most recent data set, let alone the numbers of Shops and Gush. 

[coyoteuglly]

In my two most recent metagame analysis articles, I pointed out that 50% of top 8 decklists were Gush decks and Workshop decks.  Before Gush was released from the restricted list and before Lorywn was released, Workshops were much fewer.   While it is difficult to prove, it is very difficult to imagine that the substantial rise in Workshops can be explained by anything other than the fact that they are perfect predators for Gush based decks.   

Thus, as from October 2007 through February 2008, with 50% of the metagame being Workshop and Gush decks, you effectively have a Gush v. Anti-Gush metagame, even though that's only 50% of the decks.  No other archetype is much above 10% of the metagame after Gush and Shops.   
Flash isn't even 10% of top 8s in the most recent data set, let alone the numbers of Shops and Gush. 

Even when half the field is Gush vs Anti Gush, is that not again format warping?  From my understanding based on what Wizards has said, they are shooting for formats where there is no one dominating deck.  Or even a Rock, Paper, Scissors metagme.  In reality will that ever be the case?  I am not so sure about that.  But what I do know is that a two card combo that costs 1U and wins the game is definitely degenerate, and should not be allowed to exist.  If it is broken or not... I don't really care. 

From my count 70 out of 120 cards in the Top 8 sideboards can easily be brought in against Flash.

I am pretty sure no one will argue that Flash should be unbanned in Legacy.  But in all reality Legacy has all the same tools to fight Flash that exist in Type One.

Also at the same time I am still completely baffled on why Gush got unrestricted.  I thought that it had proved to be broken the first time around.

And for the record no I do not think that Merchant Scroll has proven to be restriction worthy yet.  With Flash I get sad when I draw one after I have already found Flash.  And outside of Gush decks, I get sad whenever I draw a Merchant Scroll after casting Ancestral Recall.  Before Gifts, Gush, and Flash I remember it being laughable to play Merchant Scroll.  And for good reason.  Because after getting Ancestral, the card is absolute crap.

Also on a side note.  Steve you only have yourself to blame for this sudden uprising for cries of restricting Flash.

[Tha Gunslinga]

I am pretty sure no one will argue that Flash should be unbanned in Legacy.  But in all reality Legacy has all the same tools to fight Flash that exist in Type One.

It goddamn well does NOT.  Legacy has no Mana Drain, no Oath of Druids, no combo decks that kill quickly and consistently, nothing that's even remotely as strong as Empty Gifts or GAT.  You simply cannot compare Legacy Flash to Vintage Flash.

Before Gifts, Gush, and Flash I remember it being laughable to play Merchant Scroll.

So surely Gifts, Gush, and Flash change things a little, eh?  And Scroll saw plenty of play before those.

[coyoteuglly]

I am pretty sure no one will argue that Flash should be unbanned in Legacy.  But in all reality Legacy has all the same tools to fight Flash that exist in Type One.

It goddamn well does NOT.  Legacy has no Mana Drain, no Oath of Druids, no combo decks that kill quickly and consistently, nothing that's even remotely as strong as Empty Gifts or GAT.  You simply cannot compare Legacy Flash to Vintage Flash.

Before Gifts, Gush, and Flash I remember it being laughable to play Merchant Scroll.

So surely Gifts, Gush, and Flash change things a little, eh?  And Scroll saw plenty of play before those.

It absolutely does.  When was the last time Flash cared about Oath of Druids or Mana Drain?  By itself Oath of Druids does absolutely NOTHING to hinder or interfere with the Flash combo in ANY way.  Mana Drain requires Mox Sapphire, Lotus Petal, or Black Lotus to be played on turn 1 in Vintage.  If you are on the draw... your dead.  If you are on the play... you still just might be dead.

Right now there are Goblins, Ugr Thresh, Ugw Thresh, Iggy Pop, Belcher, CounterSlivers, Epic Storm, all flavors of Fish decks, Faerie Stompy, Red Death, 4c Landstill.  That with VERY minor tuning could be made to beat Flash in Legacy.  Hell, Iggy Pop is a fast consistent combo deck that ALREADY plays 4x Leyline of the Void MAIN.

The format also has Leyline of the Void, Tormod's Crypt, Red Elemental Blast, Pyroblast, Extirpate, Duress, Thoughtseize, Hymn to Tourach, Engineered Explosives, Meddling Mage, Swords to Plowshares, Stifle, Trickbind.  And that is to just name a few cards that disrupt Flash that are commonly seen main or sideboarded in Legacy.

Yes, before GP Columbus Chicken Little ran around yelling the sky was falling.  But even though Flash won the event.  In all reality the sky didn't fall.  The format could have easily adjusted for Flash, even with Future Sight coming in.  From Aaron Forsythe's article "Gone in a Flash" on Friday, June 1, 2007 in regards to Flash being banned in Legacy.

"After we changed the wording on the card as part of our removal of power-level errata, message boards and independent article sites lit up with discussion of the card, the decks it spawned, and how those decks would ruin—or not ruin—Grand Prix–Columbus.

Now that the dust has settled, it's clear to me that the Grand Prix was not ruined—attendance was remarkable, there was a reasonable diversity of decks in the Top 8, and there were plenty of interesting decisions to be made at both the deckbuilding and game play levels—but Flash is so format-defining and environment-warping that it has to go.

Basically, I think formats like that are fun for about one event and then something has to be done. The window during which the card was powerful and legal was short but memorable; the spotlight shone brightly on Legacy for a couple weeks and the format and its players proved to be up to the challenge of fighting against an overpowered juggernaut. A good player piloting a uniquely tuned version of the deck did win the event, which was both good and bad I suppose, but a scan of the cards played and strategies employed over the weekend show that Flash's impact was unhealthy for the long term."

http://www.wizards.com/default.asp?x=mtgcom/daily/af173

Remind you of anything Ben?

Ummm, and what exactly was Merchant Scroll seeing play in before Meandeck Gifts?

[coyoteuglly]

After doing some digging though Starcitygames.com's archives I have found Merchant Scroll to be a:

1 of in Oscar Tan's old Keeper lists. 

According to this mans count (http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/7516.html) a whole 5 Merchant Scrolls counted in 6 Top 8's in April/May of 04.   Yes this was during GAT's first run.

The same number as Masticore, Sylvan Library, Plaguebearer, and Anger.  Cards of note making more apprences were such hits as: River Boa, Poweder Keg, Maze of Ith, Roar of the Wurm, Disenchant, Cloud of Faeries, Decree of Justice, Spiketail Hatchling, Curiosity, Arrogant Wurm, Survival of the Fittest, Exalted Angel, Wild Mongrel, Basking Rootwalla, Skeletal Scrying, Squee, Naturalize, Accumulated Knowledge, and Cunning Wish. 
A 2 of in Carl Winters 2003 Vintage Championship winning Psycotog deck in 2003.

The most I could find being played in GAT was 2 at the most.  With 1 to zero being more common.

Exactly one copy in the entire Top 8 of of the first SCG.  (http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/7666.html)

Exactly one copy in the entire Top 8 of SCG: Chicago in November of 04.

A zero of in Meandeck Oath.  (http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/8343.html)

A zero of in Psychatog 2005. (http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/9194.html)

A one of in Bomberan. (http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/9618.html)

A one of in Sensei, Sensei.  (http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/9664.html)

Finding the Gifts Deck, is the first article where I can find an example of 4 Merchant Scrolls in one deck.  (http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/9963.html).  Randy Buhler actually CUT 2 Merchant Scrolls out of the deck when he played it. (http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/10179.html)

So yes Ben.  Before Gifts Ungiven came out, Merchant Scroll was obviously broken and fueled all kinds of broken and degenerate strategies.

[Dr_Tongue]

  Before Gifts, Gush, and Flash I remember it being laughable to play Merchant Scroll.  And for good reason.  Because after getting Ancestral, the card is absolute crap.

Merchants other popular target's, Force of Will protects your own AR or possibly counters a vital spell of your opponents. Merchant also lets you find SB hate (Hurkyl/Rebuild with which you can sometimes combo out) or can also grab Mystical Tutor to set up a Will turn. Grabbing a Brainstorm and uncluttering a land filled hand (with or w/o Gush causing the cluttering) and nuking 2 lands/dead cards back into the deck via a fetchland is always there as well, although to grab a BS with Merchant means you've played anything better as a target.

I'd hardly say that besides Gifts-Gush-Flash-AR that Merchant is worthless. But definately not broken.

[Smmenen]

In my two most recent metagame analysis articles, I pointed out that 50% of top 8 decklists were Gush decks and Workshop decks.  Before Gush was released from the restricted list and before Lorywn was released, Workshops were much fewer.   While it is difficult to prove, it is very difficult to imagine that the substantial rise in Workshops can be explained by anything other than the fact that they are perfect predators for Gush based decks.   

Thus, as from October 2007 through February 2008, with 50% of the metagame being Workshop and Gush decks, you effectively have a Gush v. Anti-Gush metagame, even though that's only 50% of the decks.  No other archetype is much above 10% of the metagame after Gush and Shops.   
Flash isn't even 10% of top 8s in the most recent data set, let alone the numbers of Shops and Gush. 

Even when half the field is Gush vs Anti Gush, is that not again format warping? 

I do, but that's my core point.   If you take any given snapshot of the Vintage metagame, you can show how any given top deck is "warping."  When Workshops are good, people pack their sideboards with Rack and Ruins, Energy Fluxes, and the like.  When Mana Drain is around, it is truly warping - changing the casting cost configurations of opposing decks and punishing decks even more than Vintage already does for playing cards that cost more than 1 and causing people to pack thier SBs with Red Elemental Blasts.   Magic metagames are deeply contextual and dependent upon the other players in it.   Any top deck, by definition, warps the metagame and twists it out of its previous state.   The better the deck is, and the more unusual it is, the more powerfully it does this.  Ichorid is extremely warping, yet very few people seriously entertain the idea of restriction with respect to it.

[wiley]

But in all reality Legacy has all the same tools to fight Flash that exist in Type One.

Just because it has the same tools does not mean that they can impliment them in the same way.  It is not uncommon for vintage decks to throw out two pieces of disruption at flash turn 1, this is much harder to do in legacy.  Flash only loses a little speed without moxen, but legacy as a format is a much slower (tempo wise) than vintage.

Warping sideboards is what every good deck does.  That is what a sideboard is for, to shore up games against decks you A)have a bad matchup against and B) expect to face a lot.  How many decks in the top 8 of SCG had leyline maindecked that wouldn't normally?  That number would tell you how warping flash is far more accurately than any sideboard statistic.  Also, just because half of someones side is capable of hating on flash does not, by any means, mean that it is inneffective against other decks.  There are a lot of decks that run blue cards so you include red blasts.  There are a lot of decks that abuse their graves so you run gravehate.  There are a lot of decks that run pesky permanents so you run bounce.  There are a lot of decks that run hate so you switch strategies.  Etc.

Also, on scroll:  Its use was pretty much a joke compared to now before gifts.  Even during gifts era it was only marginally used.  It has become broken now because it find threats and answers when you need them.  The ability to scroll for force is needed in current vintage.  Scrolling for AR or gush is really good, but not worth running 4.  It is the added flexibility for answers and threats that has pushed scroll to being a typical 4 of.  If you never found yourself in a position where you needed to scroll for a counter or you would lose the game, then scroll wouldn't take up 4 slots in your list, I garuntee it.

[Smmenen]

How many decks in the top 8 of SCG had leyline maindecked that wouldn't normally?  That number would tell you how warping flash is far more accurately than any sideboard statistic.

Is this actually true?  And how would you define" normally"?

I think the number of Leylines would be high even if Flash wasn't in the metagame at all. 

[Tha Gunslinga]

I think the number of Leylines would be high even if Flash wasn't in the metagame at all. 

20 Leylines in a top 8 is actually lower than a lot of top 8s in the last year.

[wiley]

From my experience only Ichorid and GobLines have maindeck leyline of the void.  If decks other than those have sacrificed space in the main for the black leyline it would show a much better indication that flash is warping the metagame.  I believe this because decks would then be bending themselves out of their optimal builds just to beat flash.

Also, the number of leylines in the meta were high before flash came around.  Yawgmoth's will has been around for years, and is still a great way to abuse the graveyard enough to steal games, leyline helps stop this.

I define normally for any decks as a generally accepted "strongest" build of the deck, for instance Stephen's current flash build is a "normal" build for Flash, while Pat Chapins counter top flash was not a "normal" build.  I would not expect to see a shop deck running maindeck leylines, nor oath, bomberman, flash, or empty gifts.  Mana Ichorid is still generally in testing mode for most people as there has yet to be a widespread discussion, or articles on it.  Fish is such a general term for a deck that it could or could not run leylines and no one would question it, and even though psychatog is a meta deck it doesn't want to sacrifice mainboard slots for leyline.

[yespuhyren]

I think the number of Leylines would be high even if Flash wasn't in the metagame at all. 

20 Leylines in a top 8 is actually lower than a lot of top 8s in the last year.

Ichorid was a lot bigger last year.

[coyoteuglly]

I do, but that's my core point.   If you take any given snapshot of the Vintage metagame, you can show how any given top deck is "warping."  When Workshops are good, people pack their sideboards with Rack and Ruins, Energy Fluxes, and the like.  When Mana Drain is around, it is truly warping - changing the casting cost configurations of opposing decks and punishing decks even more than Vintage already does for playing cards that cost more than 1 and causing people to pack thier SBs with Red Elemental Blasts.   Magic metagames are deeply contextual and dependent upon the other players in it.   Any top deck, by definition, warps the metagame and twists it out of its previous state.   The better the deck is, and the more unusual it is, the more powerfully it does this.  Ichorid is extremely warping, yet very few people seriously entertain the idea of restriction with respect to it.

Granted Type One metagames are deeply contextual, more so than any other format, having a Best.dec is exactly what Wizards is trying to avoid.  More often than not, I am against restriction of cards because Type One largely fixes itself.  But a two card combo for 1U is insnae.

Flash is the most unfair, absurdly powerful, and non-interactive deck in the history of Vintage.

Pretty much sums it up in your own words Steve.

Just because it has the same tools does not mean that they can impliment them in the same way.  It is not uncommon for vintage decks to throw out two pieces of disruption at flash turn 1, this is much harder to do in legacy.  Flash only loses a little speed without moxen, but legacy as a format is a much slower (tempo wise) than vintage.

Actually the most common forms of disruption on turn one against Flash are Thoughtseize + Force of Will.  Which is just as easy to get on turn one in either format.  Or Leyline + Force of Will on turn one for games 2 and 3.  Also Flash doesn't really lose a lot of speed when ported to Legecy.  Lotus Petal, Chrome Mox, and Mystical Tutor legal as four ofs in Legacy.

Warping sideboards is what every good deck does.  That is what a sideboard is for, to shore up games against decks you A)have a bad matchup against and B) expect to face a lot.

Yes, I agree that is what sideboards are for.  But when decks that already claim to have good matchups against Flash are still boarding in 6+ hate cards.  I find that disturbing.

Also, on scroll:  Its use was pretty much a joke compared to now before gifts.  Even during gifts era it was only marginally used.  It has become broken now because it find threats and answers when you need them.  The ability to scroll for force is needed in current vintage.  Scrolling for AR or gush is really good, but not worth running 4.  It is the added flexibility for answers and threats that has pushed scroll to being a typical 4 of.  If you never found yourself in a position where you needed to scroll for a counter or you would lose the game, then scroll wouldn't take up 4 slots in your list, I garuntee it.

Force of Will, Mana Drain, Chain of Vapor, Echoing Truth, Rushing River, Rebuild, Hurkyl's Recall, and Ancestral Reacall were always valid targets before.  Yet it was STILL never more than a two of before.  Restricting it before restricting Flash and Gush seems highly premature.  It would not surprise me in the least, if yes, one day it deserves restriction.  Because I am sure one day there will be a critical mass of targets than it can get.  But today is not that day.

From my experience only Ichorid and GobLines have maindeck leyline of the void.  If decks other than those have sacrificed space in the main for the black leyline it would show a much better indication that flash is warping the metagame.  I believe this because decks would then be bending themselves out of their optimal builds just to beat flash.

Goblins having to run Leyline of the Void IS bending itself out of its optimal build.

2nd.
Jamison Bryant (ICBM)
GobLines

1 Mox Ruby
2 Wooded Foothills
6 Mountain
1 Lotus Petal
4 Badlands
1 Black Lotus
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mox Jet
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Goblin Lackey
4 Mogg Fanatic
4 Goblin Matron
4 Goblin Piledriver
4 Goblin Warchief
4 Leyline of the Void
3 Taurean Mauler
4 Goblin Ringleader
4 Earwig Squad
2 Skirk Prospector
1 Goblin Sharpshooter
1 Stingscourger

SB:
2 Goblin Bombardment
3 Pyrostatic Pillar
3 Shattering Spree
4 Red Elemental Blast
3 Extirpate

Notice how Jamison isn't running AETHER VIAL!  Because Flash speeds the format up so much that Goblins can not run the absolute best card Goblins can ever hope to play.  And Leyline is suboptimal vs anything but Ichorid and Flash.  And if there was no Flash Goblins absolutely would not need main deck Leylines.

Also by this point Flash has evolved to a point where it doesn't really care that much about just a Leyline being in play.  It's Leyline backed by multiple disruption peices.  And there are honestly just better was to attack Flash then Leyline of the Void.  So if you figure you can just put 4x Leyline in your deck list somewhere and beat Flash... you are going to be in for a rude awakening.

[Smmenen]

Flash is the most unfair, absurdly powerful, and non-interactive deck in the history of Vintage.

Pretty much sums it up in your own words Steve.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but i think I was quoting someone there :p

[wiley]

http://teamicbm.com/2007/07/26/icbm-goblines.aspx

Gob-Lines was specifically created to prey on flash, fish and GAT.  It is indeed a meta hate deck, and good at it's job as it oviously has game against the rest of the field as well.  Vial goblins is not nearly as competitive against the field as a whole because it lacks a way to stop stupid broken plays like yawg win, flash hulk, and dredge a deck.  Adding black gave it a way to compete thanks to leyline and earwig to stop stupid stuff.

The fact that a deck that has good game against flash sides in cards anyway is in no way indicative that flash is overpowered.  It simply means that there are cards in the decks sideboard that are better for the match than certain cards in its main deck.  Again this is what a side board is for.

Looking at the way Rich Shay sides against flash with tyrant oath is a good example.  He knows that the oath plan is too slow to be truly effective so he sides in a quicker/easier storm kill and some more disruption.  Oath already has game against flash, the match is not lopsided, so why does it side in so many cards later?  Simply to strengthen the chances of winning.

If you have any game in a tourney where you main deck is perfect to beat a certain deck before and after side boarding then I say the other deck must be a total pile.