[Premium Article] So Many Insane Plays - The Best Unrestricted Spells in Vintage

[Smmenen]

http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/15876.html

editorial blurb:

Monday, May 12th - This past weekend saw the Vintage community power to The StarCityGames Power 9 tournament… and current Vintage World Champion was there! Today’s So Many Insane Plays sees Stephen go over his choice for the first tournament, and he also breaks down his Top 10 of best unrestricted spells in the format. Do you agree with his assertions?

This article actually is mostly a discussion on Doomsday and other Gushbond decks. 

[IthilanorStPete]

Without reading the article, let me guess...(not necessarily in this order)
1. Force
2. Brainstorm
3. Gush
4. Merchant Scroll
5. Mana Drain
6. Ponder
7. Oath
8. Thoughtseize/Duress
9. Dark Ritual
10. Doomsday

[ELD]

Based off my ELD's Mox XIII

Force of Will 28
Brainstorm 24
Underground Sea 23
Flooded Strand 21
Polluted Delta 20
Gush 20
Leyline of the Void 20
Ponder 19
Merchant Scroll 19
Duress 18
Tropical Island 14
Oath 12
That is it for double digits. 

Noted that the list should only include spells.  I didn't notice the stipulation, as I do not think there should be a distinction between spells and lands when discussing Magic theory.  It strikes me as arbitrary to make that kind of separation, especially in a format with so many lands that are not just mana producers.  I feel it is reasonable to include Fetchlands in a discussion where Land Grant is fair game.  Certainly Bazaar of Baghdad, Wasteland, Strip Mine, Library of Alexandria, and Forbidden Orchard have abilities that are merit discussion, and would be played if they were cost effective spells.  Including Dark Ritual, and not Mishra's Workshop seems arbitrary as well.  Without reading the article, my comments are likely not as productive as they could be, so I'll leave the rest of this discussion to those who have read it.  That said, my apologies for not reading more closely. 

Just from what can be infered from the data:

Force of Will is holding the format together, as always.  Brainstorm makes decks work.  Manabases are using an increasing amount of Fetch lands, while UB is the best color combination.  Gush is the best draw engine.  Leyline is the best sideboard card.  Ponder and Merchant Scroll compete for the next best Blue card, while duress is the 2nd best "counter" in the game.  Tropical Island shows that UG is key, but not as important as getting Black and Blue online with Underground. 

A larger sample would show more accurate results.  I will be very interested to see numbers after Myriad's event this week, and my event in two weeks.

[wiley]

It specifically says spells.  Lands are excluded from the list for various reasons.

Ultimately I liked the article.  It shows what should be an obvious point, "good spells are the foundation of a good deck and more good spells make a better deck".  Still it shows it in an entertaining fashion with well stated discussion both supporting and negating the point.

I especially liked the thoughts behind your revisions to gat and agree with them for the most part.  The only point I argue is on the jailer.  How has it actually faired for you against ichorid.  As an ichorid player I am not afraid of jailer by itself any more than any other random creature, sometimes less so since I can kill it and my bridges don't rfg.  Jailer has an extremely small window of time to be cast where it is useful, I believe extirpate would fill the slot far better against ichorid and would help in other varying matches (not limited to the ones you already mentioned in the article).

[SadPanda]

Based off my ELD's Mox XIII

Underground Sea 23
Flooded Strand 21
Polluted Delta 20
Tropical Island 14

I think these would be excluded as the title of the article is the 10 best "spells" in the format. The rest of your list seems pretty on point minus the ponders.

[Smmenen]

It specifically says spells.  Lands are excluded from the list for various reasons.

Ultimately I liked the article.  It shows what should be an obvious point, "good spells are the foundation of a good deck and more good spells make a better deck".  Still it shows it in an entertaining fashion with well stated discussion both supporting and negating the point.

I especially liked the thoughts behind your revisions to gat and agree with them for the most part.  The only point I argue is on the jailer.  How has it actually faired for you against ichorid.  As an ichorid player I am not afraid of jailer by itself any more than any other random creature, sometimes less so since I can kill it and my bridges don't rfg.  Jailer has an extremely small window of time to be cast where it is useful, I believe extirpate would fill the slot far better against ichorid and would help in other varying matches (not limited to the ones you already mentioned in the article).

You might very well be right.  I think the difference is that Jailer and Leyline, if they hit, are pretty much silver bullets you can try to protect.   Extirpate is far more of just a delaying mechanism.   But it's an interesting point.

I would like to see other people's lists - especially those who have read my article. 

[Tobi]

From the statistics page on www.morphling.de :

March 2008 - 21 events

Place. Name (amount/decks/per_deck)
1. Force of Will (460/115/4.0)
2. Brainstorm (429/108/4.0)
3. Leyline of the Void (353/89/4.0)
 4. Polluted Delta (343/115/3.0)
 5. Flooded Strand (277/112/2.5)
 6. Underground Sea (261/99/2.6)
7. Merchant Scroll (229/71/3.2)
8. Duress (213/79/2.7)
 9. Wasteland (177/52/3.4)
10. Ponder (157/50/3.1)
11. Gush (151/40/3.8)
 12. Black Lotus (148/148/1.0)
13. Thoughtseize (148/66/2.2)
 14. Mox Sapphire (142/142/1.0)
15. Mana Drain (141/43/3.3)
 16. Mox Jet (136/136/1.0)
 17. Tropical Island (134/71/1.9)
18. Pithing Needle (132/63/2.1)
 19. Mox Emerald (131/131/1.0)
20. Red Elemental Blast (129/57/2.3)


So, usage-wise, we get the following ranking:

Place. Name (amount/decks/per_deck)
1. Force of Will (460/115/4.0)
2. Brainstorm (429/108/4.0)
3. Leyline of the Void (353/89/4.0)
4. Merchant Scroll (229/71/3.2)
5. Duress (213/79/2.7)
6. Ponder (157/50/3.1)
7. Gush (151/40/3.8)
8. Thoughtseize (148/66/2.2)
9. Mana Drain (141/43/3.3)
10. Pithing Needle (132/63/2.1)
11. Red Elemental Blast (129/57/2.3)

Now this is only a spotlight on a single month pre-Shadowmoore, but it pretty much contains all the cards you list in your artcle excluding Dark Ritual and Tormod's Crypt, listing Pithing Needle and Mana Drain instead.
Tormod's Crypt placed 24th and Dark Ritual is not even listed in the top 50.
24. Tormod's Crypt (117/55/2.1)

Also, the ranking is not quite the same as yours, but of course, you had a different way of scoring the cards (quality instead of quantity).

Some very powerful "spells" in vintage are indeed lands and they should also be considered for the most powerful unrestricted cards. Wasteland, Workshop and Bazaar are the most relevant, followed by Orchard.

[frolll]

Hey, nice subject to write on Steve !
Ok, since I don't have premium, I haven't read it, but according to the stats here http://decklist.zmx.cc/ for the months of March first...

(number/cards)

1. 512  Force of Will
2. 480  Brainstorm
3. 395  Leyline of the Void
378  Polluted Delta
297  Flooded Strand
293  Underground Sea
278  Island
4. 242  Merchant Scroll
227  Wasteland
5. 226  Duress
6. 171  Black Lotus
7. 165  Mana Drain
8. 163  Mox Sapphire
9. 160  Ponder
10. 159  Pithing Needle

So, for this month, it's FoW - Brainstorm - LotV - Scroll - Duress - Lotus - Drain - Sapphire - Ponder - Needle

Then, let's see for April :

1. 352  Force of Will
2. 345  Brainstorm
3. 288  Leyline of the Void
255  Polluted Delta
232  Flooded Strand
217  Underground Sea
192  Island
4. 187  Duress
5. 160  Merchant Scroll
128  Wasteland
6. 125  Ponder
7. 125  Gush
8. 120  Thoughtseize
9. 115  Mana Drain
10. 114  Tormod's Crypt

We got Fow - Brainstorm - LotV again, then Duress - Scroll - Ponder - Gush - Thoughtseize - Mana Drain and Crypt. There is some kind of pattern here.

And for May :

1. 132 Leyline of the Void
2. 124 Force of Will
3. 124 Brainstorm
4. 103 Merchant Scroll
95 Polluted Delta
81 Underground Sea
5. 80 Gush
74 Flooded Strand
6. 62 Duress
57 Island
7. 56 Ponder
54 Tropical Island
8. 52 Thoughtseize
9. 49 Red Elemental Blast
46 Wasteland

The sample size is smaller, but we got : LotV - FoW - Brainstorm - Scroll - Gush - Duress - Ponder - Thoughtseize - ReB...

Based on theses recent results, one can safely say that FoW, Brainstorm, Gush, Scroll, Duress, are clearly the cards people play the most because Ubx decks are the bests (GaT, Flash, etc...)... Well, Painters may change that, but Vintage is a relatively stable format I think. Sure, these stats would be different if taken in mid-2005, but blue and black cards will always remain the top ones (or not :p).
This may not be the best spells in the game for all cases (besides that the sample size for May is really smal)l, but they shape the current metagame as they have shaped the past metagames too for FoW, Brainstorm, Duress, and alli.

My humble 2 cents... And I apologize for those bored by my lists.

EDIT : Link for the total stats (like since 2002, with a gap between somewhere 2003 and 2007, sorry for that) : http://decklist.zmx.cc/decklist/card.php. Who's on top : FoW and Brainstorm, obv. !

[Vegeta2711]

1) Brainstorm
2) FoW
3) Gush
4) Oath of Druids
5) Flash
6) Merchant Scroll
7) Leyline of the Void
8) Dark Ritual 
9) Ponder
10) Tarmogoyf Narcomoeba

[Grand Inquisitor]

1) Brainstorm

All the way.  It's the engine that does you in.

[Smmenen]

I also don't think it's a question.  Gush is the best unrestricted draw spell, but Gush's power would diminish markedly if Merchant Scroll was restricted.

The entire Gushbond engine would not function efficiently as a consistent progression, that is, you wouldn't be able to consistently "go off", even with Ponder printed, if Merchant Scroll were restricted.  If Scroll were restricted, Gush would be a marginal card.  There would be no "gush bond" engine.  The Gush Bond engine is:

1 Fastbond
4 Scroll
4 Gush
and to a lesser extent:
4 Brainstorm
4 Ponder

In my view, that clearly - and logically - proves the priority of Scroll over Gush.   Scroll is also the obvious best unrestricted tutor in Vintage.   

That's why I have it clearly listed as the third best unrestricted spell in Vintage.   If the DCI wanted to deal with the Gushbond engine, it seems to me that the very obvious card to restrict is Scroll.   In fact, if they had restricted Scroll, I doubt Gifts would have deserved restriction. 

[Shock Wave]

I also don't think it's a question.  Gush is the best unrestricted draw spell, but Gush's power would diminish markedly if Merchant Scroll was restricted.

The entire Gushbond engine would not function efficiently as a consistent progression, that is, you wouldn't be able to consistently "go off", even with Ponder printed, if Merchant Scroll were restricted.  If Scroll were restricted, Gush would be a marginal card.  There would be no "gush bond" engine.  The Gush Bond engine is:

1 Fastbond
4 Scroll
4 Gush
and to a lesser extent:
4 Brainstorm
4 Ponder

In my view, that clearly - and logically - proves the priority of Scroll over Gush.   Scroll is also the obvious best unrestricted tutor in Vintage.   

That's why I have it clearly listed as the third best unrestricted spell in Vintage.   If the DCI wanted to deal with the Gushbond engine, it seems to me that the very obvious card to restrict is Scroll.   In fact, if they had restricted Scroll, I doubt Gifts would have deserved restriction. 

I can't disagree with any of the above. If you hit Scroll, you address both the dominance issue of Gush decks and the interactivity issue with Flash. I wouldn't shed a tear if it got the axe.

[Ufactor]

Smmenen's own deck from SCG Richmond goes: eight (!!!) fours of's.. Misdirection.. EtW.. Echoing Truth.. restricted cards. mana.

The deck is masterfully build, and demonstrates that consistiency and high levels of unrestricted cards are more important that everything, except for Fastbond and Yawgmoth's Will.  As a matter of fact, we are witnessesing an era where there are as few restricted cards (and odd configurations of unrestricted cards) as possible.  I can't help but think that if the "Best Decks" are composed of a synergistic combination of the best unrestricted cards and the most essential, most relevant restricted cards, then Florian Numerics is correct.

[Smmenen]

The deck is neatly divided into:

8 four-ofs (32 cards)
10 singletons
18 mana

on the other hand, I've always built decks with 4s and 1s:

http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=23618.0