[Premium Article] The Grim Long Primer - C-c-combo uncorked!!!

[Smmenen]

Gifts is gone.   Gush is gone.   MOST importantly, Merchant Scroll is gone.     Grim Long is back.   

Grim Long is this format's "paper," and the natural predator for the format's Rock, Control Slaver. 

This is a proper primer, with detailed instructions on how to play Grim Long.   This primer is so full of analysis, tidbits and tricks that even Eric Becker will learn a thing or two.  This a must-read for aspiring combo players or expert Vintage players who want a different deck to play in the Control Slaver metagame.   Check out this article because you will not be disappointed.   

http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/16049.html

official blurb:

With the controversial Vintage restrictions now in place, it’s time to examine the face of an altogether new metagame. Vintage World Champion Stephen Menendian believes that Grim Long is primed for a triumphant return. The deck is packed with all the broken goodies the format has to offer… will it have the strength to shape the format in the months to come?

[mogz]

Thanks for a great article!

[slyfer]

I don't see grim long as a potential good deck for the next metagae.
With brainstorm gone (merchant was never used in long.dec), we cannot:

- sculpt the starting hand (if we keep one land hand, now we must mulligan,
- fluid play, fixing mana
- re-start when you are out-of gas
- hidden cards to opponent's duress/seize

The last point is foundamental! Now *every* every duress you must show the hand, now it's all less explosive. If the new metagame will be aggro-control decks and artifact, playing  Long style decks would be only a nostalgic choice rather than performing.

[Lemnear]

Yes you have to show the opponent you hand but opponent has no more the ability of hiding his FoW's from YOUR duresses/thoughtseizes too. Moreover no more brainstorming into FoW to stop you last minute. Both will clear the way for your combo. I guess the main problem with long is the wacky idea of still reling on ~11 lands without a lack in performance. I can't see the promblem of raise the quantity of lands maybe by running 14 land and 4 wraiths that make an simulation of ... guess around 15-16 lands in the deck ... calculation based on 56 cards and its percentage of drawing lands. I know that wraiths in opening hand are not always counted as mana sources due to the descision of making mulligans.

Bridging the gap of BS with Night's Whisper or Bob is also worth mention.

I gained stability in performance once running wraith and 13 lands together with ponder and brainstorm 4 months ago then my meta was spoiled with Deeznought, Shop and Fish. Manadenial was always crucial to long so I decided to cut the masses of expensive spells like Desire, Wheel etc. with those and did very well even after several stifles vs. my fetchies and wastelands of my opponents, calling me lucky to draw mana and fixer all the time, still able to finish them in a blink.

Steve, with Ichorid obvious on the rise (maybe a european syndrom) I'm confused why you call it the Control Slaver metagame. No one mentioned Deeznoughts and Co. for a couple of weeks like they are no more compeditive without brainstorm. I could remember that it had pretty good matchups vs. ichorid and long. What do you expect from the meta for Slaver being a upcoming tier 1?

[LordHomerCat]

Given that Drains are good again as the faster blue decks are dead, and Slaver is the default best Drain deck until someone proves otherwise, and Slaver crushed the NE in one of the few post-restriction tourneys that has appeared, I would say that its a fair assumption to call Slaver the deck-to-beat starting out.  Nought decks have never really been tier1 and have definitely never been popular enough to begin to define a metagame, compared to Slaver/ Grimlong/ Stax/ Oath/ etc.

Personally, I would build a deck to beat up on Control Slaver over everything else, and then work on tweaking the workshop matchup and maybe trying out a couple games against either RG/goblins or something like UW fish/Counter-Top.  There's no reason to design a deck to beat up on strategies which have never been popular or really tier1.  Until something else shows itself as the deck-to-beat, this is the Slaver meta.

[Lemnear]

Guess there's my basic problem ... Drain are much too low against long and more likely much too slow for staxx and useless against ichorid. So I can't really see why drain would become defining. I could imagine that we make two steps back in time and look that was given pre-gifts/gush/ponder and try to predict the new metagame but not every deck is warped back to mirrodin. I simply feel that the errata of Dreadnought the printing of Bridge/Narco/etc. and many more developments are dismissed due to some metagame predictions....

[Troy_Costisick]

Grim Long is this format's "paper," and the natural predator for the format's Rock, Control Slaver.

With scissors being Shop decks?

Drain are much too low against long and more likely much too slow for staxx and useless against ichorid

The thing is, Ichorid is hated out really easily.  There are a ton of choices right now beyond just Leyline of the Void.  Sideboards and even maindecks will be well prepared for it.  However, I think its popularity will remain high, not necessarily because it is a top tier choice, but because it iss very inexpensive to build and more forgiving to play mistakes and multiple mulligans.

Peace,

-Troy

[Gekoratel]

I enjoyed the article and felt it is a good place for those that are new to Long to start from.  The list seems strong but I have to agree with MoxLotus that the number of lands you're running does seem low.  This will allow you to draw more threats against Drain decks but is going to hurt your G1 percentage against Shop decks.  Also it may cause you to mulligan too often in your good matchups, which is unfortunate in any format.  Long already needs to mulligan fairly aggressively to get hands that are a mixture of mana and threats so tempting fate with a light manabase doesn't seem worthwhile.  Most lists I've seen post-BS are running 12 land + 3 Wraith which is essentially 12.6 lands in a 60 card deck.

Lastly how strong have you found Merchant Scroll in Grim Long, I've run it in Pitch before simply because it's blue but I was never that excited about it.  If I were going to cut a card for the 12th land it would probably be Scroll.  I'm also not sold on Windfall but if you don't want to run Wraith I suppose it’s a necessary inclusion.  Thanks again for the article.

[Lemnear]

Guess Scroll is not necessary .... sure it can grab Ancestral or Mystical but I can't remember that Long relies on the Ancestral as key-spell neither paying 3 mana for a topdeck-tutor ... rather play ISeal instead.

[Smmenen]

I don't see grim long as a potential good deck for the next metagae.
With brainstorm gone (merchant was never used in long.dec), we cannot:

- sculpt the starting hand (if we keep one land hand, now we must mulligan,
- fluid play, fixing mana
- re-start when you are out-of gas
- hidden cards to opponent's duress/seize

The last point is foundamental! Now *every* every duress you must show the hand, now it's all less explosive. If the new metagame will be aggro-control decks and artifact, playing  Long style decks would be only a nostalgic choice rather than performing.

These are addressed in the article.

Furthermore, people seem to be under the misapprehension that I haven't tested the mana base. This is not theory - it is the product of hard testing.  The 11 land mana base has been GREAT.

[punki]

Furthermore, people seem to be under the misapprehension that I haven't tested the mana base. This is not theory - it is the product of hard testing.  The 11 land mana base has been GREAT.

Hi,

Did you also test against 9 sphere.dec and/or other stax decks or did you just aply the theorie that those will be hated out by slaver and other drain decks?
The way I see it, there are 2 conflicting theories (not in your article, but on all the forums):
1. manabases will be getting stronger because of the lack of BS for fixing so combined with drain coming back, this will reduce the wastelands, spheres and stax decks out there.
2. decks can't fix their mana that easy anymore => play spheres and wastelands and chalice é zero and null rod to win

I'd like to believe the first theory and play combo, but it's a though choice.

[Smmenen]

Furthermore, people seem to be under the misapprehension that I haven't tested the mana base. This is not theory - it is the product of hard testing.  The 11 land mana base has been GREAT.

Hi,

Did you also test against 9 sphere.dec and/or other stax decks or did you just aply the theorie that those will be hated out by slaver and other drain decks?
The way I see it, there are 2 conflicting theories (not in your article, but on all the forums):
1. manabases will be getting stronger because of the lack of BS for fixing so combined with drain coming back, this will reduce the wastelands, spheres and stax decks out there.
2. decks can't fix their mana that easy anymore => play spheres and wastelands and chalice é zero and null rod to win

I'd like to believe the first theory and play combo, but it's a though choice.

Good questions: I believe that I thoroughly answered the first question in the article in the section on the workshop match.   People continue to talk about "fixing" mana.  I think people forget that Grim Long didn't use Brainstorms to fix its mana so much as to fix its configuration of spells. (EDIT: And by "fix," I mean find restricted careds). Think about it: you can't play a Brainstorm unless you already have a land.  If you already have a land, you can probably play a relevant spell on turn one (a draw7, a Duress, or a Rit --> threat).  Since Grim Long is so weighted towards turn one and turn two, that just as often delayed the playing of a draw7 or another threat as accellerated it.   It's blue decks that want to "fix" their land so that they can continue to make land drops.  Grim Long just wants to win the game ASAP. 

[arj]

Nice, an article on Grim Long. My favorite deck

I have always played with it using only 4 Duress. I find that to be enough. 6 seems a little high, especially with brainstorm out of reach for the blue players.

As you said in the article, Simian Spirit Guide is just insanely good. I really really like the card. It has never been a let-down. The combination with 2 Cabal and 2 Spirit Guides is also what I have been using.

There's a few odd choices in my opinion.

Windfall is in my opinion terrible. Maybe that's because of the low number of duress, it's a terrible terrible top-deck when all your other bombs have been countered.

Merchant Scroll is really sub par in my view. 2 Blue + Colorless for 3 cards is in long too much. Furthermore with Recall gone, it's quite terrible.

Have you considered Infernal Contract? I find it to be simply amazing. 4 Cards for you means almost always that you win the next turn.

I've been running 3 Night's Whisper in place of the lost Brainstorms, they are ok, really good at digging up bombs. 2 cards is not so bad, and with a mox they are not that hard to cast turn 1. Leaving you with 7 cards and two mana sources in play.

[Ufactor]

Furthermore, people seem to be under the misapprehension that I haven't tested the mana base. This is not theory - it is the product of hard testing.  The 11 land mana base has been GREAT.

Hi,

Did you also test against 9 sphere.dec and/or other stax decks or did you just aply the theorie that those will be hated out by slaver and other drain decks?
The way I see it, there are 2 conflicting theories (not in your article, but on all the forums):
1. manabases will be getting stronger because of the lack of BS for fixing so combined with drain coming back, this will reduce the wastelands, spheres and stax decks out there.
2. decks can't fix their mana that easy anymore => play spheres and wastelands and chalice é zero and null rod to win

I'd like to believe the first theory and play combo, but it's a though choice.

There is also a possibility of a third option:

3) Prison-Shop decks might not be present because of extra- meta game conditions.  In sanctioned (no proxy) tournaments, the price tag of Stax/Stackless/9 ball is inhibitive enough to not play it.  Hence, Grim Long is a great choice for Worlds (*hint*).

[M.Solymossy]

Wait...  9 ball is a hard deck to make at worlds?

4 Shops.  900
5 moxes: 1700
1 Black Lotus 650
I count about  3250 roughly (numbers are high)


Grimlong:
5 Moxes 1700
1 Black Lotus 650
1 Ancestral 400
1 Time Walk 325
1 Timetwister 150
3 Grim Tutors 240

Do the math

[Vegeta2711]

Wait...  9 ball is a hard deck to make at worlds?

4 Shops.  900
5 moxes: 1700
1 Black Lotus 650
I count about  3250 roughly (numbers are high)


Grimlong:
5 Moxes 1700
1 Black Lotus 650
1 Ancestral 400
1 Time Walk 325
1 Timetwister 150
3 Grim Tutors 240

Do the math

Uh, so a 200 dollar difference? woo-hoo. Pretty sure most people don't care when you've already decided to dump 3k+ into a deck at that point.

As you said, do the math.

[Ufactor]

Wait...  9 ball is a hard deck to make at worlds?

4 Shops.  900
5 moxes: 1700
1 Black Lotus 650
I count about  3250 roughly (numbers are high)


Grimlong:
5 Moxes 1700
1 Black Lotus 650
1 Ancestral 400
1 Time Walk 325
1 Timetwister 150
3 Grim Tutors 240

Do the math

derf.derf.  Grim Long is obviously a bit of a stretch for Joe Gamer.  If you already have the cards, however, like a certain 2007 World Champion that shall remain nameless, Grim Long is a shoe-in.

[Moxlotus]

I don't see grim long as a potential good deck for the next metagae.
With brainstorm gone (merchant was never used in long.dec), we cannot:

- sculpt the starting hand (if we keep one land hand, now we must mulligan,
- fluid play, fixing mana
- re-start when you are out-of gas
- hidden cards to opponent's duress/seize

The last point is foundamental! Now *every* every duress you must show the hand, now it's all less explosive. If the new metagame will be aggro-control decks and artifact, playing  Long style decks would be only a nostalgic choice rather than performing.

These are addressed in the article.

Furthermore, people seem to be under the misapprehension that I haven't tested the mana base. This is not theory - it is the product of hard testing.  The 11 land mana base has been GREAT.

And yet you say you have have a disadvantage playign against stax.  I feel that GWS's list is at worst slightly favorable against 9ball.dec.  12 land (including 2 maindeck basics) and 3 bounce spells in a 57 card deck gives a stable manabase so you actually have a legitimate chance to win game 1 on the draw.  Your list probably has a better game against drains, but when you're favorable already do you really need to make it into a 80/20 when you're already at 70/30?

GWS long seems to be trying to take a different tack of utilizing the explosiveness when possible, but also trying to be more mid-range when those card aren't available. 

We're making our deck have a game against 9ball.

I think that Pact of Negation makes little sense to me for reasons I already explained in the article.

Because having 1 instead of another duress to EOT mystical/vamp for lets you go off with 1 less mana?  Versatility is a good thing.

I also don't understand why he wouldn't run more Duress effects like I do, since Duress fits so well into what this deck is trying to do.

Bounce is better against 9balls than Duresses.  The deck doesn't need many duresses to smash Slaver.

  also don't understand Nights' Whisper. Night's Whisper is a card that people (myslef including) have been trying since it was printed

When you go from 11 lands and 4 brainstorms and lose 3 of those brainstorms, you need some cheaper ways to find that second land against stax and stiflenaught.  Stiflenaught is a house.  6-8 stifles + wastes and maybe even rods/chalices in addition to duresses and forces and dazes.  You need a rock solid manabase.

[ErkBek]

Stephen,

I don’t know where you got the impression that I’d be learning anything from that article. In fact over a year ago I wrote nearly an identical piece that I can’t help but wonder if you used as an outline:

http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=33269.0

Furthermore, I find it interesting that you posted a list within hours after I posted my most recent list for GWS Long for a Brainstorm-less format on SCG and TMD.

I also can’t believe it took you so long to figure out how much better the fetchland manabase is than the 5C dogshit you’ve been running for years. It’s unfortunate that you finally figured it out now that Brainstorm is gone.

I find it interesting that you fear Workshops so much, yet you don’t seem to address this at all with your maindeck. Even a single Swamp in the deck can help immensely, enabling turn 1 Duress off a basic Swamp leading into a turn 2 kill or Draw 7.

Well written piece as always.

Best Regards,

-Eric Becker

[Anusien]

I know at least Death Long ran 12 lands.  I don't see how you can cut 3 Brainstorm and not add at least a land.  Also, I agree with Becker.  It seems like you'd want to fetch out a Swamp turn 1 to Duress and then be able to fetch a Volcanic Island turn 2 if you needed to get access to blue or red.  Realistically you're only going to want one of the two because you're either casting blue spells or Wheeling.  If you're going to set up Empty + Time Walk, you're probably going to know ahead of time.  The cases where you need both blue and red mana are not any different from this deck.  At least this way you don't get stuck such that you have two seas on the board and have to find the one badlands.  You only need one land in play to tap for blue or red anyway.

P.S.,

Furthermore, I find it interesting that you posted a list within hours after I posted my most recent list for GWS Long for a Brainstorm-less format on SCG and TMD.

Yes, Stephen.  It's very interesting that your article went up exactly the same time it does every week.
Eric: For a Monday spot his article is due by like 6pm on Saturday.  I saw his list in action on Saturday.  I don't think Stephen, who has written more about Long than probably anyone else on the planet, is ripping you off.

Crossposted to SCG since Becker did.

[Smmenen]

P.S.,

Furthermore, I find it interesting that you posted a list within hours after I posted my most recent list for GWS Long for a Brainstorm-less format on SCG and TMD.

Yes, Stephen.  It's very interesting that your article went up exactly the same time it does every week.
Eric: For a Monday spot his article is due by like 6pm on Saturday.  I saw his list in action on Saturday.  I don't think Stephen, who has written more about Long than probably anyone else on the planet, is ripping you off.

Crossposted to SCG since Becker did.

Anusien is right (except that Death long also ran 11 lands).   My articles are also written about a week in advance.   

My article folllowed the same outline I've used for the previous *twelve* articles I've written on Long spanning the last 5 years.   

What I thought you might find interesting (or other experts), specifically, was my analysis of draw7s - not the section on why the various draw7s differ - that's sort of the basics, but specifically my anallogy about Recall and Gifts and the fact that Draw7s are actually tutors, not just card advantage engines.   I think this was more evident with Death Long than with Grim Long, but the truth remains.

Most people probably associate me with Gifts or GAT at this point, but actually, Long variants, specifically Grim Long is probably my most successful creation for several reasons.  First of all, of all the power and prizes I've won over the years, I've actually won most of it with some long variant or another: original Long.dec, then Death Long, then Grim Long.    I've made at least three SCG top 8s, including two top 4s with Grim Long alone.  I also was pretty much the person responsible for getting LED and B. Wish restricted, with Buehler citing my list back in 2003 when they axed those cards: http://www.wizards.com/default.asp?x=mtgcom/daily/rb102

Eric, I'm not sure if you actually read the entire primer, but if you do, I'm fairly certain you'll find a couple things in there that you hadn't considered before.  Although necessarily I included alot of basics, there is packed in there alot of advanced knowledge that I think will go over the head of most players.   

I strongly disagree with your list of threats, btw.  I don't want to go into a point-by-point debate, but I think that one of the reason I disagree with them is because it takes each in isolation.  Each threat is interconnect to each other.  This is most visible with their relationship to yawg will, but it extends beyond Will.   Bargain and Desire, for instance, are related threats - each enhancing the other.   I think I provided alot of clear-headed analysis that  comes with having mastered the Long archetype over 5 years.

FYI for other readers, check my article archive for these other articles on Long variants:

1) Introduction To Original Long.dec, Sept. 25, 2003
http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/5820.html

2) Long.dec versus Control Matchup Analysis, Oct. 1, 2003
http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/5856.html

3) Long.dec versus Workshop Decks Matchup Analysis, Oct. 17, 2003
http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/5950.html

4) DeathLong Introduction, Oct 1, 2004
http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/8181.html

5) How to Play DeathLong, Oct 7. 2004
http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/8219.html

6) Sideboarding with DeathLong, Oct. 18, 2004
http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/8279.html

7) Grim Long FAQ and SCG Top 4 Report (http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/10803.html) Nov. 11, 2005

Cool SCG Richmond Grim Long Top 8 Report (  http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/11616.html ), March 29, 2006

9) Three Grim Long Puzzles (http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/11708.html) April 13, 2006

10) SCG Rochester Grim Long Top 4 Report (http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/12134.html ) June 16, 2006

11) The Art of Playing Grim Long (http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/12403.html) July 26, 2006

12) Grim Long v. Meandeck Gifts
(http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/13719.html ) Feb. 19, 2007

EDIT:
Also, the five color mana base is not "god awful."  The reason I've abandoned it is clear in the article: I no longer use Xantid Swarm, and three color mana base can be accomodated by fetchlands whereas a four color mana base cannot.  You can't play Xantids AND Wheel and run fetches.  But that was explained in the article Eric.

[Aneurysm]

Steve, I like how you cited one example and I disagree with it. With your desire hand of Mire, Cabal Rit, Emerald, Tinker, Duress, you say that playing duress after tinker is the right play.

It may be tempting to Duress now, but the proper play is to Tinker for Memory Jar, activate it, and then Duress.

Just because your opponent did not counter mana for the desire doesn't mean that they don't have a counter. You fail to give a game state; maybe they couldn't have countered the mana. Also, if you are waiting to fetch so you can hit an academy, what are you trying to cast off the academy? The extra mana off academy is IRRELEVANT! You have SEVEN mana right now, so thinning to find a grim tutor to cast will is the correct play. Basically what I'm saying is that you've already cast desire and the only card that you want to cast with blue is Twister, so why not fetch now and increase your chances of finding the grim/will. 4 cards out of ~45 and 4 cards ~44 isn't a big difference, but you are playing for specific cards with the Jar, not more mana.

[Smmenen]

Steve, I like how you cited one example and I disagree with it.

Untrue.   Reading is your friend.   If you read the article, you’ll see that that was one of three concrete examples I provided in the article.   

If you would like more “in-game examples”, I’ll direct you to all three of my starcitygames power nine top 8 reports:

1) SCG Top 4 Report (http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/10803.html) Nov. 11, 2005

This was the article that introduced Grim Long to the public after I created when Grim Tutor was released from Portal Prison..  In truth, I had built Grim Long nearly two years before this, waiting for them to release Grim Tutor.   I was privately told by Aaron Forsythe well over a year and a half  in advance that Portal would become legal.   I just didn’t expect them to take so long to do it.

2) SCG Richmond Grim Long Top 8 Report (  http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/11616.html ), March 29, 2006


That weekend I top8ed both days, but on day 1, I played Ichorid and decided to mix it up on day 2 with Grim Long. 

3) SCG Rochester Grim Long Top 4 Report (http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/12134.html ) June 16, 2006


If you REALLY want some examples to chew over, take a look at my Grim Long puzzles article:

Three Grim Long Puzzles (http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/11708.html) April 13, 2006

Good luck with those puzzles. 

With your desire hand of Mire, Cabal Rit, Emerald, Tinker, Duress, you say that playing duress after tinker is the right play.

It may be tempting to Duress now, but the proper play is to Tinker for Memory Jar, activate it, and then Duress.

Just because your opponent did not counter mana for the desire doesn't mean that they don't have a counter. You fail to give a game state; maybe they couldn't have countered the mana.

Notice how I qualified the hypothetical (hence the importance of reading):

and that you don’t think your opponent has any countermagic.

Having created Grim Long and worked very hard creating and tuning previous long variants, I’ve watched countless instances of people misplaying Grim Long.   My examples were intended to instruct and highlight areas of play where people are most likely to make mistakes.   People make mistakes with decks like Grim Long not because they can’t see the correct play, but because there is a universal tendency to make plays which simplify the game state. 

I’ll repeat myself: There is a universal tendency to make plays which simplify the game state. 

The reason is simple: it makes life easier.   When we are tracking numerous variables: life, storm, mana, spells in hand, gy, library, board and in our opponents hand and even SB (if we are playing with Wishes), a new zone created by Desire just adds to that complexity.   To reduce that complexity, there is a tendency to try and empty one zone more quickly. 

Thus, there will be a push, all things being equal, to play spells out of the Desire RFG zone before needed.   People will also miss the bigger picture and think that Duressing now makes sense because this is their “real hand.”

Also, if you are waiting to fetch so you can hit an academy, what are you trying to cast off the academy? The extra mana off academy is IRRELEVANT! You have SEVEN mana right now, so thinning to find a grim tutor to cast will is the correct play.

LMAO!!!!!

Wrong on several counts.

First of all, Academy Mana is *not* irrelevant.   It’s not as if, oops, I’ve reached seven mana with Grim Long, I can stop generating mana now! LOL.   

Furthremore, there are a host of possible scenarios in which you’ll need multiple blue. 

Here are just a few:

1) If you draw Will in the Jar, there is a very good chance that replaying Desire is the best play.  Academy facilitates this.

2) If you draw any mix of two blue spells including Mystical Tutor, such as Mystical + Brainstorm, or Mystical + Ponder, or Mystical + Acall.   Academy will be important for the double blue. 

3) If you are forced to do more than one Draw7 OR another Draw7 but you also have a blue spell, such a Mystical, Ponder, or Braintorm. 

Those are three broad categories that include dozens of scenarios in which multiple blue matters.

Basically what I'm saying is that you've already cast desire and the only card that you want to cast with blue is Twister, so why not fetch now and increase your chances of finding the grim/will. 4 cards out of ~45 and 4 cards ~44 isn't a big difference, but you are playing for specific cards with the Jar, not more mana.

You are one of those people who thinks that fetching on turn one to “thin your deck” is a good play, eh?

[ErkBek]

First of all, Academy Mana is *not* irrelevant.   It’s not as if, oops, I’ve reached seven mana with Grim Long, I can stop generating mana now! LOL.   

Furthremore, there are a host of possible scenarios in which you’ll need multiple blue. 

Here are just a few:

1) If you draw Will in the Jar, there is a very good chance that replaying Desire is the best play.  Academy facilitates this.

2) If you draw any mix of two blue spells including Mystical Tutor, such as Mystical + Brainstorm, or Mystical + Ponder, or Mystical + Acall.   Academy will be important for the double blue. 

3) If you are forced to do more than one Draw7 OR another Draw7 but you also have a blue spell, such a Mystical, Ponder, or Braintorm. 

Those are three broad categories that include dozens of scenarios in which multiple blue matters.

Basically what I'm saying is that you've already cast desire and the only card that you want to cast with blue is Twister, so why not fetch now and increase your chances of finding the grim/will. 4 cards out of ~45 and 4 cards ~44 isn't a big difference, but you are playing for specific cards with the Jar, not more mana.

You are one of those people who thinks that fetching on turn one to “thin your deck” is a good play, eh?

Deckthinning here is absolutely the play. I don't have time right now to explain in detail, but even Stephen Menendian might learn something. 

[BreathWeapon]

One question, what's the point of disruption? Right now the format is at a loss for removal, since Merchant Scroll and Brainstorm got axed, and it's difficult for control to answer Empty the Warrens, let alone answer Empty the Warrens in a time efficient manner. Shouldn't we be running 4 Empty the Warrens and 4 Simian Spirit Guide just so we can force them to counter our acceleration instead of our bombs (Demonic Consultation is also fucking awesome)?

I'm sure the old Long shells are viable, but the old Long shells aren't exploiting the huge, gaping hole in control's ability to answer resolved threats.

[Aneurysm]

A couple of things. First off, Steve, we all know that you have experience with the deck. You don't need to clog up the threads with multiple tourney reports telling us that you did so. It's just arrogant. (However, I did enjoy the puzzle article and came to the same Necro --> Wheel play as your second teammate on the third hand.)

 I'm going to quote this one more time for clarification's sake:

It may be tempting to Duress now, but the proper play is to Tinker for Memory Jar, activate it, and then Duress.

Were you saying that duressing after the tinker is always the right play? I may have misread and you simply thought that it was the correct play in that instance, but I'm pretty sure that you were making a generalization. When to duress always depends on the situation, and to think otherwise is ignorant.

You are one of those people who thinks that fetching on turn one to “thin your deck” is a good play, eh?

No, I'm a player who likes to maximize his odds of finding the cards that I need. In this case, Grim Tutor or Will. Let's not make hasty generalizations about people that we don't know, okay?

[ErkBek]

Deckthinning here is absolutely the play. I don't have time right now to explain in detail, but even Stephen Menendian might learn something. 

I'll withdraw saying "absolutely the play", since there's not enough information to conclude that it's the play in every situation and we just don't have it here.

From the sounds things, Lotus is still in the deck, no? I say this because you mention Academy mana post will to cast Desire from the yard. This is really a very awkward game if this is the case because you just cast desire without Lotus, Academy, or your land drop for the turn, awkward, but let's go with it.

There's got to be either a Jet, Sapphire, or Lotus Petal in the yard (since you had option on what to sac when casting Tinker). Between those, cabal rit, and Tinker, you should be able to fix your mana accordingly for just about anything if you draw Yawg Will.

I see the bonus mana from Academy as mostly irrelevant, which you clearly don't. Again this goes back to information that we've got. How many Artifacts are on the table; 0, 1, 2, 3 or even 4?

I look at it this way. The odds of drawing Academy are going to be right around 16-18% depending on the size of your deck. In most situations that extra mana is going to be irrelevant because you need to draw specific combinations of blue spells + Academy to utilize that mana (and you've already taken out Desire and Tinker from the situation). Also, let's entertain the idea that you drew these blue cards. Is there still no better path to victory than casting both of these spells?

The advantage of fetching is 16-18% of the time you'd be drawing that land, you won't. Your Jar basically draws you 8 cards instead of 7, 16-18% percent of the time. This is very significant because over time these numbers do add up.

Finally, there's the chance you might draw your opponent into something like 2x FoW, Drain, 2x Blue card, so Duress hardly turns off their countermagic. This goes back to how many artifacts do we still have on the table? (or what's their mana look like?) If you have 2 or more artifacts, holding out for Academy in hope of netting 3-4 bonus mana in case the opponent draws into a ludicrous hand is the only situation I think it's worth holding out on.

I think the variations in our list partially cause this disagreement. Bombs in your list are "less black" (Mystical, ETW, Scroll, Windfall vs. 2x Whisper, Tendrils, 3x Street Wraith). In my list I'd often times be going for that Underground Sea, but in your list there's more potential for a color-hosing problem.

I think it all comes down to what cards have been played so far, a huge variable that the reader knows nothing about from the information given.

LMAO!!!!!

Wrong on several counts.

I wonder did you consider any of what my post says before choosing your play or typing your post?

I'll be the first to say "deckthinning is overrated in type 1" however, it's import to recognize when its not overrated. When you're drawing 7 cards, thinning out a single card can certainly make a difference.

I know we've had this debate before in response to one of your tournament reports. You once lost a game b/c you played a land and then Twisted into something like Desire, Academy, and artifact mana then called it a play error. Is it possible that you're basing your choice too much off pattern recognition?

[Shaman]

Concerning the decklist proposed in the article, I have been testing it intensely from a couple of days. I came up with the following conclusions:
- merchant scroll, here, is a really bad tutor. It finds ancestral and sometimes brainstorm, in desperate situations even chain of vapor. A total of three cards, but tutorable at sorcery speed with a 1U requirement: I mean, too bad for a deck like this. When you scroll for ancestral, most of the time you'll cast it the next turn, giving your opponent a free turn, and if in your meta you find yourself looking for chain too often, then a hurkyl's recall maindeck (or a second chain) would have been better. So I moved merchant out and another land, a basic swamp, in.
- imperail seal can be game-winning, but without a full set of brainstorms it's weaker, terribly weaker than previous grim long variants (obv.!). A smart opponent can guess pretty often what you searched for, and he'll try to nullify your play. I tried infernal tutor in its place. It's really strong, since it is a good topdeck card with immediate effects, it can grab multiple rituals or duresses when needed, and it is COMBO with lion's eye diamond. Now that I tried it, I would never walk back.

My two cents!
-Shaman-

[Moxlotus]

The advantage of fetching is 16-18% of the time you'd be drawing that land, you won't. Your Jar basically draws you 8 cards instead of 7, 16-18% percent of the time. This is very significant because over time these numbers do add up.
 

Our math was wrong Eric.  The odds are much higher (depending on the exact question being asked).  They would seem too high, but it follows the birthday paradox   Thought the results were very interesting and worth sharing.


Or:
A table of the expected number of lands you'll draw in a Draw7 hand based on how many lands are in your deck still and how many cards are in your deck.
           
                         lands remaining

Code:

       |  12  |  11  |  10  |  9   |   8  |   7  |   6  |   5  |
    ------------------------------------------------------------
    53 | 1.58 | 1.45 | 1.32 | 1.19 | 1.06 | 0.92 | 0.79 | 0.66 |
    52 | 1.62 | 1.48 | 1.35 | 1.21 | 1.08 | 0.94 | 0.81 | 0.67 |
c   51 | 1.65 | 1.51 | 1.37 | 1.24 | 1.10 | 0.96 | 0.80 | 0.69 |
a   50 | 1.68 | 1.54 | 1.40 | 1.26 | 1.12 | 0.98 | 0.84 | 0.70 |
r   49 | 1.71 | 1.57 | 1.43 | 1.29 | 1.14 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 0.71 |
d   48 | 1.75 | 1.60 | 1.46 | 1.31 | 1.17 | 1.02 | 0.87 | 0.73 |
s   47 | 1.79 | 1.64 | 1.49 | 1.34 | 1.19 | 1.04 | 0.89 | 0.74 |
    46 | 1.83 | 1.67 | 1.52 | 1.37 | 1.22 | 1.07 | 0.91 | 0.76 |
l   45 | 1.87 | 1.71 | 1.56 | 1.40 | 1.24 | 1.09 | 0.93 | 0.78 |
e   44 | 1.91 | 1.75 | 1.59 | 1.43 | 1.27 | 1.11 | 0.95 | 0.80 |
f   43 | 1.95 | 1.79 | 1.63 | 1.47 | 1.30 | 1.14 | 0.98 | 0.81 |
t   42 | 2.00 | 1.83 | 1.67 | 1.50 | 1.33 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 0.83 |
    41 | 2.05 | 1.88 | 1.71 | 1.54 | 1.37 | 1.20 | 1.02 | 0.85 |
    40 | 2.10 | 1.92 | 1.75 | 1.58 | 1.40 | 1.23 | 1.05 | 0.88 |
    39 | 2.15 | 1.97 | 1.79 | 1.62 | 1.44 | 1.26 | 1.08 | 0.90 |
    38 | 2.21 | 2.03 | 1.84 | 1.66 | 1.47 | 1.29 | 1.11 | 0.92 |
    37 | 2.27 | 2.08 | 1.89 | 1.70 | 1.51 | 1.32 | 1.14 | 0.95 |
    36 | 2.33 | 2.14 | 1.94 | 1.75 | 1.56 | 1.36 | 1.17 | 0.97 |
    35 | 2.40 | 2.20 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.60 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 1.00 |

Since we're talking about Academy, the above tables can count as "blue cards" instead of land to add an additional level of decision making to see if you need the blue mana.


/done by GWS's resident math graduate student---certainly not done by me.

[Liam-K]

Am I reading this wrong or does your table say with 36 cards and 10 lands left in the deck (40.61%... chance of something?), if you crack a fetch and change the scenario to 35 cards containing 9 lands (40.53%) you increase your odds of drawing less land by 0.08%?  Because that seems intuitively wrong.