[Premium Article] Insider Trading - Are Proxies Hurting Vintage Tournament Atten

[Nehptis]

No, there is no consensus.  Do you people realize that by abolishing the reserve list and reprinting power you would absolutely destroy the secondary market and in doing so destroy magic?

Could you expand upon this please?  Why do you feel that the Reserve List is so tied to the life/death of MTG?  I've always felt that the Reserve list simply exists to please the vocal minority e.g., the hard core collectors.

Lots of collectable items in this world have been re-issued from cars to coins to albums.  Still the originals hold their value for nostaglic reasons amongst others.

[RaleighNCTourneys]

The difference between collectable coins and stuff like that is that they are not actually usable. So, when they get reprinted, they original ones hold their value because they are purely collectable.

With magic cards, they are collectable and usable. For that reason, reprinting them will have a much more severe effect on the prices because many people just need the cards in order to play with them and do not care about collectability.

I believe magic is a card game before it is a collectable. People should have the ability to play with power and play with whatever deck they want without investing thousands of dollars. I'm all about reprinting power and expensive cards. I love playing the game and do not care at all about the cards' value or collectability. I completely understand people who have invested thousands of dollars and do not want that money to go down the shitter, though.

[jamestosetti]

Just a thought. I'd love to not have to fork over big money to buy type 1 cards but then I think"how many people would show up to vintage events if they were cheap and how many freaking people would actually know the first thing about playing type 1?" It would get very stupid at tournaments if they reprinted them all at once. I mean mayby something like dci reissuing new power cards for your beat up ones if you have a dci rating over so many points? Even that is extremely abusable but mayby if they reprinted them 1 at a time? It's a very difficult situation when it comes down to it.

EDIT:

This is the best possible solotuion I could think of. A from the vault type deal with more than just power 9 cards but all the old expensive hard to find or pay for type 1 staples but make them non foil and with different backs that are the same shape and material as magic cards but not tournament legal unless there in a sleeve like alpha cards have to be. Wizards could charge mega money for this but still way cheaper than the actual cards. At a high price more than likely only type 1 players will buy them so the market will not be flooded and everyone wins.

Posts combined.  Please don't double post.  -Eastman

[Yare]

If it were up to me, Wizards would announce the reprinting of the Power 9 along with other major expensive Vintage staples (Mana Drain, Bazaar, Workshop, Time Vault, etc.) in one to three years and then would print the cards in one to three years. That way, there can be some warning for buyers and sellers as to the change and there isn't such a significant hit for everybody involved (hopefully). Obviously, there would be an impact, but if they were going to do it, I think this would be the fairest way.

However, in order for this to occur, I think there would have to be a very strong push from the community. Additionally, I can see why people would very rationally not want to support this.

[Tha Gunslinga]

Could you expand upon this please?  Why do you feel that the Reserve List is so tied to the life/death of MTG?  I've always felt that the Reserve list simply exists to please the vocal minority e.g., the hard core collectors.

The Reserve List is a promise made by Wizards of the Coast to all Magic players, collectors, dealers, etc.  It says that they will never reprint those listed cards.  Yes, the list has been changed over the years, but the basic premise is the same, and the cards that have been removed have all been relatively minor.  Reprinting power cards in any way would be flushing the list down the toilet, and telling people "sorry, we really don't care what you think."

Reprinting Power 9 would also devalue it immensely.  The reason proxies don't devalue the price of the originals is simple.  People like the originals because they look better, they get respect, and in many tournaments they're the only thing you can play.  Reprinted Power 9 would be snatched up by Magic players the world over, and, well, played with.  A LOT.  Demand for the original power would fall because the supply of P9 would be so much greater.  Imagine you've been playing since whenever, and you have a set of power, Shops, Drains, etc.  If Power 9 were reprinted, EVEN THOUGH WIZARDS HAD EXPLICITLY PROMISED IT NEVER WOULD BE, your cards would be worth substantially less.  How much less?  Well, it's difficult to say, but I think assuming a decent print run of at least 20,000 of each card, Power prices would fall by at least 50%.  Possibly much more.  If Wizards really cut loose and reprinted Power in a six- or seven-figure print run, who knows?  While a mint Alpha Black Lotus has a lot of value strictly as a collectible, a beat Unlimited Time Walk only has value as a playing card.  Psionic Blast and Underworld Dreams both dropped by 50-75% after they were reprinted, and those had the added benefit of being Type 2 legal, which presumably Power 9 wouldn't be.

So if the Power 9 were reprinted in any form, thus killing the Reserved List, I do think players would be up in arms.  Look at all the people who whine about Brainstorm's restriction, and claim that that's hurting tournament attendances.  Brainstorm was an obvious restriction candidate, it was ridiculously overpowered, and there were so many Top 8s that had 24 or more Brainstorms.  It had to be restricted to give non-blue decks a chance.  Reprinting Power is by no means necessary.  Sure, a Mox Pearl made out of a basic Plains may not appeal to your aesthetic sensibilities, but that gives you a reason to buy Power.  As a dealer, I sell plenty of Power 9 cards to Americans who just want them to play with.

Finally, I'm just going to state that the risk doesn't justify the reward.  Reprinting Power is a huge risk to Wizards.  It puts their star property in jeopardy.  And all they get out of it is sales that they could easily get by putting out a foil Angel set or something.  Why would they risk killing the golden goose?

Now, obviously I don't *know* for sure what would happen if Power were reprinted.  But I do feel that a lot of older players would feel betrayed and would quit, and that the secondary market would be roiled by it.  If Wizards reprints Power, something that they have explicitly promised not to do, what stops them from printing money by running off ten thousand sheets of Tarmogoyfs?  Or reprinting Mox Diamond as a common?  As a dealer, if Wizards broke the reserve list, I would most likely quit immediately, and I think a lot of other dealers would too.  I know some players don't like dealers or don't really care whether we exist or not, but you're not going to be able to find cards even remotely as well without us, and many of us play, too, or keep others playing by supplying them with cards.

[Yare]

Regarding Psionic Blast, what were 1) the prices of the old and new versions of the card while Psionic Blast was Standard legal and 2) the prices of the old versions prior to the reprint? This isn't meant to be rhetorical; I don't know the answer.

[Tha Gunslinga]

Psionic Blast was $10-12 Unlimited and $25-30 A/B before reprinting.  When they reprinted it I recall A/B topping out at $40-50 and UL hitting either 15 or 20-25.  The Timeshifted version was 10-15.  Then two things happened.  Wizards released the Player Rewards one (effectively adding thousands of sheets of them to the marketplace), and players realized no one was playing it.  Prices dropped severely, bottoming out at around $5 for the TS/Judge Rewards one (the cheapest possible versions).  Once it rotated, Psionic Blast bottomed out at $1-2.  The graph here can't cover the entire period of existence of the Timeshifted version, but you get the idea.  I see the TS/Player Rewards ones at $1 all the time now.  The UL ones are $5-8--about half what they went for before.

[Nehptis]

TG thanks for the detailed reply.  However, your response supports my theory that the Reserve List is to statisfy the Vocal Minority "The Singles Dealers and Hard Core Collectors".  It seems to me that it's that very small population of people who are so anchored to the RL policy.  Players for the most part don't care or want it removed.

I wonder thoguh where Store Owners/TOs fall.  If they consider themselves collectors or get a large profit from their Vintage Singles sales then they obviously support the RL.  But, I'd guess that most of them make their profits in other ways.   If they are in the singles market then it's probably the Type 2 and Extended singles sales that are more lucrative than the Vintage ones.

[andrewpate]

There may be a few dealers in high-Vintage regions like the Northeast or the Upper Midwest for whom this isn't the case, but nationwide it's pretty true.  Dealers will have a couple of Moxes and a few random things like a Chains of Mephistopheles or a Time Walk, and they sit in the case for months.  Meanwhile, that dealer is buying and selling Cruel Ultimatums and Reveillarks by the dozens per week.  My local store owner would be annoyed if, in a one-time hit, the Mox Emerald in his case had to be marked down from $400 to $300 (or even to $50!), but it would hardly destroy his business.

That said, I do not think that any kind of large reprinting of Power is appropriate.  I don't even think that a large reprinting of Farmstead, Veteran Bodyguard, and Pyramids would be appropriate.  This is because I think that it is important for the players to be able to trust these sorts of claims made by Wizards.  If they say that North Star and Floodwater Dam are never coming back, I want to be able to take that to the bank.  Period.

That said, I would not be opposed to the invocation of the "non-premium" aspect of the Reserve List.  A Judge foil of a really expensive Vintage card would be a great incentive, and it would be unlikely to have a substantial negative impact on the card's value.  A Beta Balance still sells on SCG.com for $100, and it was not only a Judge foil, it was in 4th Edition!  This would get a small but helpful number of the cards into the hands of newer/younger players and possibly act as a promotion for Vintage as a format, since the sudden ownership of an Ancestral Recall might cause some players to want to build a deck to use it.

[tito del monte]

I definitely understand where Andrewpate is coming from in so much as trust is required between players and WOTC. But at the same time, are we going to reach a point where it becomes detrimental to the format?

I own some power, and I would probably be a bit gutted if it lost value due to reprints - but if it meant I could play Vintage every Friday (I live in London, UK so currently that's impossible), I'd be happy. Though I appreciate that dealers have a very valid role to play in Magic, I don't believe reprints of what's on the reserve list would really hurt them - the same claims were made about the sky falling in when Chronicles was printed..

I would also say though that everyone in the States who is saying they are impressed by Europe's non-proxy Vintage scene and would like something similar, seems to me to be overlooking that the whole reason for Europe's strong Vintage scene was the choice of US players to go down the proxy route - there simply aren't enough cards to support thriving non-proxy vintage scenes in both continents: When the US went proxy, Europe bought the power you were winning and didn't want. When you factor in how strong the £ and € were against the $ until the whole credit crunch, it's no wonder all those Vintage cards winger their way over here! Now I'm desperate for the £ to get strong again so I can finish my P9

I seem to remember reading many years ago that Richard Garfield wanted his game to be as respected as chess. I don't see that happening if not everyone can play with a full set of pieces. As far as I can tell that means either proxies, reprints or a sanctioned meta with about zero chance of new, young players picking up that baton. I think that would probably spell the end of Magic as we know it - because let's face it for most of us on these boards Vintage IS magic..

Finally, going back to the trust issue, I would rather be able to trust that WOTC really care about Vintage, want to preserve it and want to support it again and are willing to think long hard about its future, taking tough decisions where necessary - rather than just putting my faith in them because of the reserve list, an ad hoc agreement they came up with in a totally different age, while the format slowly perishes.

[Tha Gunslinga]

TG thanks for the detailed reply.  However, your response supports my theory that the Reserve List is to statisfy the Vocal Minority "The Singles Dealers and Hard Core Collectors".  It seems to me that it's that very small population of people who are so anchored to the RL policy.  Players for the most part don't care or want it removed.

Type 1 players ARE a "very small population."  I think there are probably more "singles dealers and hard core collectors" out there than Vintage players.  I think there are probably under a THOUSAND active Vintage players in the US.

[Yare]

Psionic Blast was $10-12 Unlimited and $25-30 A/B before reprinting.  When they reprinted it I recall A/B topping out at $40-50 and UL hitting either 15 or 20-25.  The Timeshifted version was 10-15.  Then two things happened.  Wizards released the Player Rewards one (effectively adding thousands of sheets of them to the marketplace), and players realized no one was playing it.  Prices dropped severely, bottoming out at around $5 for the TS/Judge Rewards one (the cheapest possible versions).  Once it rotated, Psionic Blast bottomed out at $1-2.  The graph here can't cover the entire period of existence of the Timeshifted version, but you get the idea.  I see the TS/Player Rewards ones at $1 all the time now.  The UL ones are $5-8--about half what they went for before.

Ok. Using this very roughly as a case study, the prices did initially spike due to legality in Standard. Then, once players stopped playing the card and the supply increased, prices dropped. This is what I surmised.

So, given that, is it possible that a reprinting of power would fuel an interest in Vintage such that the old versions would also spike in value and retain that value since power will always be usable. Essentially, the idea would be that while the supply was increased, driving down price, the increased demand would make up for this causing prices to go higher or at least maintain their current levels. I'm not saying it's a certainty, I'm just wondering if this is plausible. Would an early announcement (1-3 years in advance) soften the blow, if any, for those holding valuable cards?

Also, andrewpate, some cards have been removed from the Reserved List and reprinted, though nobody cared because they weren't worth anything (I think Dwarven Demolition Team was one of them).

[AmbivalentDuck]

And Juzam Djinn's strictly better reprint (as a one-of since it randomly hoses slivers) doesn't seem to have affected the price of the original much at all.  Though we all know that's because the original has infi better art.

I guess that's kind of irrelevant since printing "Blue Mox" in addition to Sapphire probably wrecks every format it would be legal in...

[Tha Gunslinga]

So, given that, is it possible that a reprinting of power would fuel an interest in Vintage such that the old versions would also spike in value and retain that value since power will always be usable.

I really don't expect much of anything to fuel an interest in Vintage at this point.

[Smmenen]

And why, do you think, is that? 

[Tha Gunslinga]

Why would people get into it if they haven't already?  The population of Vintage has been pretty much static for the last what, 4 ro 5 years?  Yes, in theory Wizards could promote it by putting out Vintage "World Championship" decks or a boxed set with reprinted Moxen, but why would they?  They've already put plenty of effort into it, whether it's by paying attention to the B/R list, errataing Time Vault yet again, putting Steve's articles on MTG.com, and holding Vintage Worlds.

Elder Dragon Highlander has more players than Vintage.  Why don't they deserve a boxed set, or reprints of the most popular generals, or an official banned list?

[andrewpate]

Also, andrewpate, some cards have been removed from the Reserved List and reprinted, though nobody cared because they weren't worth anything (I think Dwarven Demolition Team was one of them).

I assume that this was meant to respond to my point that the reprint policy should be adhered-to strictly.  As such, I should point out that Randy Buehler has guaranteed that an ad hoc change to this list (the card was actually Clone) will not happen again.

Cite:
http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtgcom/askwizards/0103

I do agree with your reasoning that a reprint could spark interest in Vintage, and it echoes my earlier point about the possible impact of a Power Judge foil.

[Yare]

Also, andrewpate, some cards have been removed from the Reserved List and reprinted, though nobody cared because they weren't worth anything (I think Dwarven Demolition Team was one of them).

I assume that this was meant to respond to my point that the reprint policy should be adhered-to strictly.  As such, I should point out that Randy Buehler has guaranteed that an ad hoc change to this list (the card was actually Clone) will not happen again.

Cite:
http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtgcom/askwizards/0103

I do agree with your reasoning that a reprint could spark interest in Vintage, and it echoes my earlier point about the possible impact of a Power Judge foil.

My point wasn't meant as a definitive refutation or anything; it was just a mention that cards have been removed from the list, though you were evidently already aware of this.

Slight nitpick regarding Randy Buehler saying he "guaranteed" that they would never reprint cards on the Reserved List.

The Reserved List was changed before Clone was reprinted in Onslaught... in fact, one of our motivations for asking and then changing the list was that we suspected the public wanted us to reprint Clone and we didn't think there would be negative consequences. When revising the list, we noticed that Feroz's Ban has mistakenly been included on the List after it had already been reprinted so we fixed that error. We anticipate no further changes to the Reserved List in the future.

I think this is language suggesting something slightly less than a guarantee. But, at the same time, I think it's just nitpicking in that reprinting power or other especially valuable cards would obviously be a huge step.

Buehler stated in his article talking about the update to the Reserve List:

The essence of our reprint policy remains the same -- we still have a reserved list of cards we plan never to print again.

But, then again, the Reserve List language is not as equivocal as this:

Reserved cards will never be printed again in a functionally identical form.

But, of course, the reason for the change was...

Well, if any of the cards in that class are covered by the Reprint Policy then the policy is doing the exact opposite of what it was designed to do. It was designed to enhance the value of the cards you collect, but instead it could be suppressing them!

So, if it could be shown that power would actually go up in value after a reprint, then reprinting them seems viable. However, that is a huge "if," obviously. Moreover, I doubt there would be any opposition if this could be shown because both players (greater supply) and collectors (higher price) would benefit. Of course, my suggestions above might just be optimistic speculation.

Regarding a judge foil reprint, I think it would a great idea and a great experimental first step. If they were to print, say, Mana Drain or Mishra's Workshop as a judge reward and then Vintage interest increased and/or prices for those cards increased, I think that would be a very positive sign that such a plan would be viable.

Regarding the idea that people would be into Vintage by know if they are ever going to be interested, I think it's important to realize that some people don't play because they don't have the cards. Yes, proxies have minimized this to some degree, but it's not sanctioned, which might in turn turn a lot of players off to the format. I still think the limited supply of cards is the real format killer. You can't play basketball if you don't have a ball.

Edit: Then again, as I sit here, I am not sure that a judge promo would necessarily fuel a price increase because I doubt one card being reprinted would fuel a major interest in that card generally. Instead, the premise overall of a reprinting scheme would have to be that Vintage interest would significantly increased due to significantly increased access to the format, particularly at a sanctioned level.

[Troy_Costisick]

TG thanks for the detailed reply.  However, your response supports my theory that the Reserve List is to statisfy the Vocal Minority "The Singles Dealers and Hard Core Collectors".  It seems to me that it's that very small population of people who are so anchored to the RL policy.  Players for the most part don't care or want it removed.

Type 1 players ARE a "very small population."  I think there are probably more "singles dealers and hard core collectors" out there than Vintage players.  I think there are probably under a THOUSAND active Vintage players in the US.

I can see you have a lot of scientific data to back that up.

Why would people get into it if they haven't already? 

Because the cards are more readily available!  The biggest barrier to entry in Vintage is having to spend a couple thousand dollars on your mana base.  That's about ten rotations of Standard...maybe more. 

As a dealer, if Wizards broke the reserve list, I would most likely quit immediately, and I think a lot of other dealers would too.

I find it more likely to believe that dealers would be motivated by profit and try to scoop up as many of the new printings as possible, sell them higher than they bought them for, then make a decision on whether to sell Magic cards or Baseball cards going forward.  Asserting that "a lot" of deals would quit immediately is an absurd notion.  There would be way too much money to be made on reprinted power, original duals, and pre-6th broken cards.

[Smmenen]

Regarding the idea that people would be into Vintage by know if they are ever going to be interested, I think it's important to realize that some people don't play because they don't have the cards. Yes, proxies have minimized this to some degree, but it's not sanctioned, which might in turn turn a lot of players off to the format. I still think the limited supply of cards is the real format killer. You can't play basketball if you don't have a ball.

To what extent do you think card prices/availability/barrier to entry is more significant of a barrier to getting new Vintage players than, say, the speed of the format, the complexity of the format, and the lack of Wizards support relative to other formats/lack of a visible tournament circuit?  

As a thought experiment, how popular do you think Vintage would be in the long-run if high-priced Vintage staples were $15 a pop?

Why would people get into it if they haven't already? 

You don't think Magic can acquire new players?  

[Yare]

Regarding the idea that people would be into Vintage by know if they are ever going to be interested, I think it's important to realize that some people don't play because they don't have the cards. Yes, proxies have minimized this to some degree, but it's not sanctioned, which might in turn turn a lot of players off to the format. I still think the limited supply of cards is the real format killer. You can't play basketball if you don't have a ball.

To what extent do you think card prices/availability/barrier to entry is more significant of a barrier to getting new Vintage players than, say, the speed of the format, the complexity of the format, and the lack of Wizards support relative to other formats/lack of a visible tournament circuit?  

As a thought experiment, how popular do you think Vintage would be in the long-run if high-priced Vintage staples were $15 a pop?

I would say that the biggest barrier is the availability of cards, which in turn fuels a lack of support of the format. While Vintage is complex, I'm not sure that it is easily distinguishable from Legacy or Extended in terms of complexity (though, admittedly, I don't play those formats). I tend to view the speed of the format as just part of the nature of Vintage rather than something that draws people in or keeps them away; it's just part of playing with all the cards. Maybe I shouldn't join those two things, but that's how I perceive it.

I guess to turn it around, what has fueled in the increase in interest in Legacy after the splitting of the Vintage/Legacy B/R lists? I think accessibility (namely in the form of banning particularly inaccessible cards, though there are certainly still expensive cards, in addition to creating viable alternatives to old cards, such as the shocklands) in addition to greater support for the format (Legacy GP). I mean, even you, Steve, have played more Legacy due to an increase in the support of the format, correct? (If this isn't true, please correct me).

Regarding Vintage staples at $15 a pop, that is an interesting one. I suppose part of the allure of the format is the fact that some of the cards are mega expensive. But, having played the format long enough, I personally have gotten beyond that. I just like being able to play with all the cards. Perhaps due to its static nature Vintage interest would eventually wane, even if everybody had relatively equal access to the format. Then again, Legacy doesn't appear to be burning out any time soon (or so that is my understanding).

[AmbivalentDuck]

It's an interesting thought experiment since it brings vintage costs more into line with Legacy.  Immediately: what merits does vintage have over legacy?

1) Wins often look more lopsided. (infi turns, 11/11 robots, early storm kills)
2) You can play with the game's most broken (non-ante) cards
3) Your opponent is a guy in his mid to late 20's and there's a decent chance that he'll act "mature"

And...???

The biggest difference between vintage and legacy is the 'sensitivity' of the most powerful decks to small play errors.  As a guy who enjoyed success with the Doomsday combo, I have to apologize to many of my past opponents for taking 10+ min turns.  Compare this to goblins or B/W aggro control.

[Smmenen]

I think the single biggest factor driving Legacy has been official Wizards Support: 4 Grand Prixs as well as being featured in team competition and 5 rounds of the last two Magic World Championships.   The closest visibility that Vintage has seen to that is 16 players playing Vintage for three rounds on the Magic Invitational.   Not even close.  

[Tha Gunslinga]

I can see you have a lot of scientific data to back that up.

Meh, I only see like 15 US states advertising tournaments on TMD, and the average tournament attendance is 25 people or so.  I think the number of "real vintage players" in the US is startlingly low.  No, I don't have scientific data.  How would I?

Because the cards are more readily available!  The biggest barrier to entry in Vintage is having to spend a couple thousand dollars on your mana base. 

But we have proxies right now.  I run 25-proxy Vintage.  You can build some decks for under $100.  You can build pretty much anything for under $400.  There is no real cost barrier to Vintage in the US right now.  I mean, seriously, you can build Ichorid with a meager 10 proxies for under $100.

There would be way too much money to be made on reprinted power, original duals, and pre-6th broken cards.

Perhaps.  But this is contingent on a fairly limited supply of reprints, which wouldn't kill the cost barrier to Vintage at all.  In order to have them be cheap and stay cheap, you have to print a LOT of these, flooding the market.

[Troy_Costisick]

Because the cards are more readily available!  The biggest barrier to entry in Vintage is having to spend a couple thousand dollars on your mana base. 

But we have proxies right now.  I run 25-proxy Vintage.  You can build some decks for under $100.  You can build pretty much anything for under $400.  There is no real cost barrier to Vintage in the US right now.  I mean, seriously, you can build Ichorid with a meager 10 proxies for under $100.

It was my understanding that the premise of the original article and a good part of this thread was that people do not enjoy playing with or against proxies.  You may not hold that belief, but that's the argument being asserted.  If that's the truth, then increasing the supply will increase the player base.  If not, aw hell, I'm not even going to entertain a "if not" notion since it's ridiculous.  More cards will lead to more players.  In any event, 25 proxy tournaments are pretty rare.  The cost experience for players in your area are not indicative for Vintage players, and especially new to Vintage players in the US.

There would be way too much money to be made on reprinted power, original duals, and pre-6th broken cards.

Perhaps.  But this is contingent on a fairly limited supply of reprints, which wouldn't kill the cost barrier to Vintage at all.  In order to have them be cheap and stay cheap, you have to print a LOT of these, flooding the market.

So what you're saying is a limited reprint wouldn't affect the cost of these cards at all.  I agree.  That means that there's no good reason not to do a reprint, other than lame tradition that creates a self-imposed barrier to making a profit off these cards for the IP holders of this game. 

[Smmenen]

Part of the difficulty of this conversation is that each of the factors that affect Vintage's health are related, which is why I spoke with the caveat "ceteris peribus."   

The barriers to entry affects the level of tournament support, which both affect the comfort level of players in the format (another barrier to entry).   A lower card accessibility threshold means more pick-up games, which means more testing and more experience/comfort level with the format, which in turn supports tournament demand, which fuels tournament support.

In other words, there is no single cause.   Each cause has positive feedback loops, with each cause affecting the other.   Consequently, David, I think you overstated the significance of the card access as a cause.   Hence my Thought experiment.  I think that even if card prices were substantially lower, that would only be a part of the solution, as even if players can buy cards, that doesn't mean they will.  I imagine that the vast majority of players wouldn't, at least not in the short run. 

more importantly, even if card prices were lower, I don't think it would help that much because of the lack of support/visible tournament circuit AS WELL AS the fact that younger/newer players, who might be the most likely market if Vintage were cheaper than all other formats, would inherently, as a group, be less likely to enjoy Vintage, on account of at least two facts: 1) the sheer complexity of Vintage, it is the most complex format in terms of rules knowledge/card knowledge (Time Vault, Ill. Mask, and even cards like Mana Vault + Necropotence, etc), and 2) speed of the format.  If you are a young/new player, you are likely to find Vintage somewhat bewildering.   

As I said earlier in this thread, I believe I have a formula for Vintage that could work, but I don't want to unveil it just yet.   

[Yare]

I think you're right, Steve. So, on the whole, I think if you could get 1) greater card accessibility and 2) support for the format, that's the long term plan to Vintage sustainability. Come to think of it, we have (1) right now in the form of proxies (to some extent), but virtually zero of (2). Hence, Vintage is lagging as a format, though I think the economy and the growing up/starting a family things are factors right now.

Regarding new players finding Vintage bewildering, this is understandable. At the same time, I don't really think we need Vintage to be on the same level as Standard or even Extended or possibly Legacy. I would be thrilled with regular Vintage tournaments (say, at least 2 per month in most localities) in a sanctioned environment. But, as you mentioned above concerning the interaction of forces, the difficulty of entering from a skill/understanding of the format angle can only serve to exacerbate perceived problems with entry due to the cost.

Regarding this plan of yours, I am curious as to what you have in store.

[AmbivalentDuck]

As I said earlier in this thread, I believe I have a formula for Vintage that could work, but I don't want to unveil it just yet.   

We declare bankrupty, but because we're too important to fail congress bails us out.  The government buys up 80% of TMD and subsidizes the purchase of toxic assets (moxen) by private investors.  Next we give out multimillion dollar bonuses for poor tournament performance with Shahrazad.deck.  Losing isn't enough...you have to disrupt the whole tournament while losing to qualify for a bailout this big.

Steve's secret reason for pushing for the unbanning of Shahrazad...UNCOVERED!

[Smmenen]

I think you're right, Steve. So, on the whole, I think if you could get 1) greater card accessibility and 2) support for the format, that's the long term plan to Vintage sustainability. Come to think of it, we have (1) right now in the form of proxies (to some extent), but virtually zero of (2). Hence, Vintage is lagging as a format, though I think the economy and the growing up/starting a family things are factors right now.

Part of the long-term, sustained health of Vintage HAS to turn on being supported by mid-twenty-somethings and older.   In fact, that's a huge advantage that Vintage has over the rest of competitive Magicdom.   Because of the infrequent rotations and, ironically, the barriers that prevent too many young players from playing it, Vintage Magic is a format that can specifically cater to people who have careers and families.   A ever growing portion of the active roster of my team is case in point (me, Roland Chang, Paul Mastriano, Mike Bomholt, Paul Mastriano, Steve O'Connell, Kevin Cron (who regularly plays Type Four, but doesn't have an active Vintage scene) etc).   Most of my teammates have gone out of the college age and are now in the work force full time with, in many cases, vigorous careers.   Personally, I work about 50ish hours a week and find having a full time life and playing in a dozen or so magic tournaments a year to be very easy.   Although I probably played in less than 12 magic tournaments per year the last couple of years (probably closer to 8-9 per year (for example, last year I played in about 4-5 local tournaments, Vintage Champs, Vintage Prelim, and an SCG double header), that's more than enough to remain highly competitive in Vintage, but part of the reason why I don't have time to compete in non-Eternal formats.   It's a choice that people make.  Ironically, once players settle down, it's actually alot easier to play Magic since people settle into a more regular routine and the stigma of playing magic while dating is irrell once you are married.   People who say that they no longer have time to play Vintage because of "real life" are really just making excuses.  They're actually just going to a movie with the wife/gf, working on a house project, doing chores, watching sports, or doing some other hobby.   

[Nehptis]

I seem to remember reading many years ago that Richard Garfield wanted his game to be as respected as chess.

I'll suggest that it has happened already.  Vintage is Chess.  Look at the meta-game it's Ich vs. Drain/Vault.  And this does not help the perception of Vintage to non-Vintage players.  Other factors like, high Costs of Cards and an aging Vintage player pool with less time on our hands also contribute to the Vintage decline.  But, I for one would make more room in my calendar if the metagame was more interesting.

It's the same analogy to going to the movies.  I made time in my schedule to go see The Dark Knight because it seemed like a film I would enjoy, and I did.  But, I didn't feel the need to make time for Mall Cop.  If Vintage crawls out from beneath this horribly boring Drain/Vault and Ichorid metagame then I'll find time again in my schedule whether the event is Proxy or Not.  Until then, I'll find something else to fill my time.  Anyone want to go see Mall Cop?