[FREE Article] The Perfect Storm, Revisited

[Smmenen]

http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/vintage/17980_So_Many_Insane_Plays_The_Perfect_Storm_Revisited.html


Whew!  This one was a whopper to write.   50 games!   It took me probably many hours to test and write up all of these games.  That's one of the reasons I kept saying I didn't have time to debate other issues.

In this article I put TPS up against Itou Tezzeret and the Eastman/GI Tezzeret, and make a significant sb change to help improve the matchup post-board.  

Enjoy!

Stephen

[Marske]

@Steve,
Like I said in your blog, thank you for writing this up. It seems like we both draw the same conclusions, it was an interesting read altogether and the work you put into it clearly shows when reading the article. I'll give a more indepth response regarding some of the stuff when I get some more time. I just wanted to share this brief post, as I'm busy preparing for Milan which is taking up a huge chunk of time along with work.

EDIT:
The article keeps mentioning Diabolic tutor which imo should be Demonic tutor I'm not sure if this is changeable but I would suggest changing it if possible.

[Smmenen]

Thanks Marske: I'm not sure why it says Diabolic Tutor.   The manuscript says Demonic.   Something must have happened in the editorial process.  I'll ask Craig to correct it.

[Marske]

@Steve
Ok, so I got a quick ten minutes during break time to formulate some questions so here goes:

You mention your board containing 4 leyline 3 Jailers and no Extirpate or Needle, as your dredge article suggested Leyline and Extirpate were the 2 cards Ichorid had the least answers for. So I was a bit surprised to not find extirpate in the board, it has other uses as well (extirpating rituals in the mirror, drains against control etc) or do you believe this isn't necessary or needed?

I can see why you wouldn't run Pithing Needle, the card has possible wider uses but all of those (stopping wasteland, stopping time vault / grindstone) seem already naturally trumped by the inherent strategy TPS already has.
 
You mention dropping the ichorid hate in favor of running Negator against Drains, the last sideboard you suggested had only 5 Ichorid cards far lower then any I've ever seen in your boards, is this because you feel ichorid isn't widely played or did the match up change so hugely with just running leyline ?

Let me stress something: Do not sideboard out Imperial Seal. Imperial Seal is far too good, as the games above attest.

I used to be firmly opposed to running Seal at all, since I've been trying it out I have to say it's an awesome little card and this statement couldn't be more true.

I would not run Time Vault either in the maindeck or the sideboard. It’s suboptimal for a host of reasons I will not reiterate today.

I agree fully, I know we've had this argument before somewhere else on TMD (not sure which thread) but I still agree that Time Vault and Voltaic Key have no place in TPS.

[Smmenen]

@Steve
Ok, so I got a quick ten minutes during break time to formulate some questions so here goes:

You mention your board containing 4 leyline 3 Jailers and no Extirpate or Needle, as your dredge article suggested Leyline and Extirpate were the 2 cards Ichorid had the least answers for. So I was a bit surprised to not find extirpate in the board, it has other uses as well (extirpating rituals in the mirror, drains against control etc) or do you believe this isn't necessary or needed?

I had been running 3 Jailer, 3 T. Crypt and 2 Needle, I believe.   Writing This article changed my view (in particular, the table at the bottom), and I went to 4 Leyline and 4 Jailer.

I honestly haven't tested Extirpate in a year, so I can't tell you one way or the other whether it's bad or not.    The table suggests that it could be pretty decent.   If I was going to go down to only 5 anti-Ichorid cards, it would seem that 4 Leylines and a Jailer make the most sense.    The Jailer is a tutor target.   

You mention dropping the ichorid hate in favor of running Negator against Drains, the last sideboard you suggested had only 5 Ichorid cards far lower then any I've ever seen in your boards, is this because you feel ichorid isn't widely played or did the match up change so hugely with just running leyline ?

I wouldn't take it as a strong indication of my fear of Dredge so much as a concession on the need to improve the Tezzeret match post-board.  They simply have too much strong technology.  I could see making other adjustments to the board, if one was inclined.  For example, you could cut a land or a Negator for another two dredge cards.   

Let me stress something: Do not sideboard out Imperial Seal. Imperial Seal is far too good, as the games above attest.

I used to be firmly opposed to running Seal at all, since I've been trying it out I have to say it's an awesome little card and this statement couldn't be more true.
[/quote]

It's too bad, but I've found that lots of people across the format often omit Imperial Seal simply because they don't own it, even in proxy environments.    I think Imperial Seal is very important to TPS.

[Marske]

I had been running 3 Jailer, 3 T. Crypt and 2 Needle, I believe.   Writing This article changed my view (in particular, the table at the bottom), and I went to 4 Leyline and 4 Jailer.

I honestly haven't tested Extirpate in a year, so I can't tell you one way or the other whether it's bad or not.    The table suggests that it could be pretty decent.   If I was going to go down to only 5 anti-Ichorid cards, it would seem that 4 Leylines and a Jailer make the most sense.    The Jailer is a tutor target.   

Makes perfect sense, although Jailer has proved to be a minor speedbump during my testing I've never combined it with Leyline.

It's too bad, but I've found that lots of people across the format often omit Imperial Seal simply because they don't own it, even in proxy environments.    I think Imperial Seal is very important to TPS.

I agree, it's one of the most impressive cards in my recent testing, it's been truly amazing for me and I don't see why people wouldn't run this at proxy events.

I wouldn't take it as a strong indication of my fear of Dredge so much as a concession on the need to improve the Tezzeret match post-board.  They simply have too much strong technology.  I could see making other adjustments to the board, if one was inclined.  For example, you could cut a land or a Negator for another two dredge cards.   

I agree about this, as you know my current board (e-mailed it to you a while back) and others don't I'll post it here as well. I've been testing out multiple bounce effects against Meandeck beats and other decks running Gaddock Teeg which proved to be a hard card to deal with. I could easily see myself cutting the needles and 1 Extirpate to accommodate 3 Phyrexian Negators (which I ran as a foil to Remora when it was "good") During our initial testing of Remora (a deck created by fellow R&D Co-Founder Rich Shay) we came to the conclusion the only foil TPS could possible run to have a fighting chance was Negator so it doesn't surprise me that it's still good when facing Remora / Arcane lab today.

for reference my current board:
// Sideboard
SB: 1 Island
SB: 1 Swamp
SB: 2 Hurkyl's Recall
SB: 2 Extirpate
SB: 1 Infest
SB: 2 Echoing Truth
SB: 2 Pithing Needle
SB: 4 Leyline of the Void

[snaga]

awesome article, much appreciated.
good to see an awesome vintage player get similar results to my own testing.

thanks!

[Smmenen]

Your welcome!

[saspook]

Great article - I think I am playing Necropotence totally to cautiously.

I was expecting to see a Darkblast appear in the side board - or the Massacre changed to an Infest.

At one point, I saw a list with Bayou in the board and Tarmogoyf.  Negator is strictly better in the control matches, or is the sideboard worse?

[Marske]

@Steve,
i've tested replacing the 2 needle, 1 Infest for 3 negators tonight and it actually put me over the top against drains and still left me with a decent enough hate package against fish and ichorid imo. Although I'm doubting the usefulness of Extirpate at the moment because it does have the tendency to just sit their open for therapy's / Unmasks until the Ichorid player dumps something juicy in the yard. Maybe those 2 spots should be a Jailer / Needle or something. I'm using this thread as a way to discuss this since the other TPS thread started by me is a bit to old and I don't feel like necroing that.

@Saspook,
Darkblast isn't as good as Chain / Truth because you won't be able to dredge it back to kill any 2/2 dudes with TPS. Also dredging away Will to kill a Teeg sucks as well.

[Doomsday]

Can anyone post the decklist or is that now allowed?  Thanks

[Marske]

@doomsday,
Although I'm able to post the list I'll respect Steve's wishes as he usually doesn't like list from premium content to be posted for free. I can say though that his maindeck is still the same as it was during last spring and it's similar to the list I suggested in the TPS thread over here With the exception that the second Grim tutor is replaced by and Imperial Seal.

I'll leave the rest open for Steve to decide if he wants to share it.

[Doomsday]

Oh, OK.  For some reason I was under the impression that it was alright to re-post the decklists but not the articles themselves, if that makes any sense.  Anyway, the deck I use is based on the old articles and decklists, so no big deal if it hasn't changed.  I did make the mistake you guys were talking about and cut the Imperial Seal to make it fit within 10 proxies (Power 9 + Grim).  I had to choose between the two and Grim Tutor seems better for me.

[ReAnimator]

How effective are the negators out of the board if Tez knows they are coming (cause of this article)?

I've been set on playing TPS  for a tournament this weekend for a few weeks, but i'm a little concerned now, partly cause of this article, and partly cause of the negators being a known quantity.

One more question, what do you think of a single helm in the board to go along with the leylines? Is it worth it for some matches? I'm pretty sure i'm going to run it regardless as it is super fun, i'm just curious about your thoughts on the strategy.

[Smmenen]

How effective are the negators out of the board if Tez knows they are coming (cause of this article)?

This isn't 2004 where one of my articles could shift a metagame.   I don't think that many people actually have premium, so I think the chance that this will skew the metagame, wherever you are, is very, very slim.   For example, I suggested a deck for the Vintage champs that I'm pretty sure at most 1-2 people out of 110 played.   

I've been set on playing TPS  for a tournament this weekend for a few weeks, but i'm a little concerned now, partly cause of this article, and partly cause of the negators being a known quantity.

One more question, what do you think of a single helm in the board to go along with the leylines? Is it worth it for some matches? I'm pretty sure i'm going to run it regardless as it is super fun, i'm just curious about your thoughts on the strategy.

It's a fine strategy.   In fact, if there is any match where you bring in Leylines, Helm is the optimal win condition then.   

[ReAnimator]

Thanks!

I suppose you are right about the meta effect lol! i just hope they don't read this thread i guess.
My question is still, do you think Negators are effective even if they know they are coming in, either through scouting or other means? Does Tez actually have the tools in the board to deal with it or no, i haven't played T1 for about a year.
Also why 3 instead of 4? do you not want to maximize the chance you see them?

[Smmenen]

Can Negators be addressed?  Of course.  But whether they will be is another question altogether.   The reason I didn't run four is because my testing, documented in this article, suggested that three is sufficient and the sideboard is quite tight.  I did not test four.    In theory, I am not a big fan of Negators.  In practice, they seemed quite good.   

[ReAnimator]

Cool, thanks.

[rilegard]

Thanks for dedicating such a big effort on TPS.
I believe those are 'dark times' for TPS, mainly due to remora decks.
I hope your articles can make people think that it is still a viable choice.

[Smmenen]

Partly on account of fish and beats, none of the recent tournament winning decks, esp tez lists, have remora maindeck.   Until they do, tps seems like a good choice.

[Savo]

And what about an other three-drop easily castable with ritual, Sadistic Sacrament?
It seems better than Negator in the same matchups in which you would side in Negators...a first turn negator vs Tezz is a good clock, but a first turn Sacrament is probably game over... am I wrong? 

[Smmenen]

This article is now Free!   Enjoy!

[Doomsday]

Whoo, finally free!  Thanks for the article Steve.

Do you think Sacrament can replace Negators in the side for these match-ups?  With everyone playing Bobs and people playing Fire/Ice to answer Bob, Negators seem worse now.

[sean1i0]

Hmm I don't know about that.  Sacrament seems like a fine card as a one of in the side board, but I'm not certain that I would ever want to play more than that.  It feels like more of a silver bullet card against certain decks rather than a game plan to transform into postboard.  Versus Tezzeret a resolved Sacrament is still not game over.  I suppose you could argue that it is enough of an advantage versus Oath and some other decks (one of which is the mirror).  I am just not certain that you need/can afford the extra sideboard space needed for 3 of them.

[MirariKnight]

Hmm I don't know about that.  Sacrament seems like a fine card as a one of in the side board, but I'm not certain that I would ever want to play more than that.  It feels like more of a silver bullet card against certain decks rather than a game plan to transform into postboard.  Versus Tezzeret a resolved Sacrament is still not game over.  I suppose you could argue that it is enough of an advantage versus Oath and some other decks (one of which is the mirror).  I am just not certain that you need/can afford the extra sideboard space needed for 3 of them.

I respectfully disagree; Sacrament is pretty crippling to Oath (as in no win cons left) and forces Tezz to win w/ Confidant beats. It's also good against a storm mirror. I'd definitely include minimum 2 in the board in any deck with Rituals. It's game over against so much.

[Doomsday]

Mirari, would you put those in place of the Negators?  The only matchup I would bring Negators in for is Tezz, whereas the Sacraments can cripple Tezz and just beat Storm and Oath.

[sean1i0]

Quote from: sean1i0 on Yesterday at 07:17:51 PM
Hmm I don't know about that.  Sacrament seems like a fine card as a one of in the side board, but I'm not certain that I would ever want to play more than that.  It feels like more of a silver bullet card against certain decks rather than a game plan to transform into postboard.  Versus Tezzeret a resolved Sacrament is still not game over.  I suppose you could argue that it is enough of an advantage versus Oath and some other decks (one of which is the mirror).  I am just not certain that you need/can afford the extra sideboard space needed for 3 of them.

I respectfully disagree; Sacrament is pretty crippling to Oath (as in no win cons left) and forces Tezz to win w/ Confidant beats. It's also good against a storm mirror. I'd definitely include minimum 2 in the board in any deck with Rituals. It's game over against so much.

Well, I definitely agree with it being a GG for Iona Oath and the mirror, but I tend to think that against Tezzeret that if you're wasting time taking away their beatdown strategy (a.k.a. playing the control role in a matchup where I think you are certainly the beatdown), then you will ultimately give them enough time to draw into enough countermagic/Duresses/Thoughtseizes for them to be able to prevent you from winning.

Having said that, Mirari, your posts are always intelligent and well thought out and your analysis/insight has left me having a lot of respect for what you have to say, so I concede that I may just be entirely wrong in my analysis.  Still, that is how the situation strikes me at the moment against Tezzeret, so I figure it is at least worth making note of it to add to the general ideas of the community.  I will be trying this out to see how my thoughts on the situation stack up to in-game experience.  Testing, I think, is the only thing that could conclusively answer this query for us, but, for now, those are my 2 cents.

[Marske]

As you guys can read here Sacrament was huge in me winning against ANT and was GG for Onno vs me keeping me out of the top 8. I don't think 2 should be run in the board, one makes for a pretty decent tutor target against Oath, mirror, Tezz. I dislike playing 2-offs in general so this could also be a factor. I shared my Sideboard with you guys in my report and it felt really solid throughout the entire day, I didn't get to use my Dredge hate but used almost all individual pieces (except Jailer / Trap) in other matchups (also a big plus imho) I also didn't have to use Massacre or Pact but that's because I didn't face any deck against which those are possibly good.

[sean1i0]

So you did find this to be good against Tezzeret?  Using it against them never feels like assuming the wrong role?  Or is it that with just boarding in one against them it gives you just enough of a surprise semi-silver bullet?  Do you actually find yourself tutoring for it against them as compared to just setting up a combo turn with counter backup?  Especially with the Confidants postboard to help you build to critical mass and to slowly pick away at the Tezzeret player's life total, I would think that this would be (fairly) easily accomplished.  At least so far I've found that TPS has an incredibly good game against Tezzeret decks.  Perhaps it is just the builds I've been running against.  If you do find yourself tutoring for it against them, then what are the cards you generally nab?  Yawgmoth's Will, countermagic, countermagic?  Or YWill, Time Vault, countermagic?  I would think that if they have already used/gotten Duressed away one or 2 counterspells, then taking 1-2 more would be good, since it effectively cuts the number they have in their deck by a third (of those remaining that is).  I could see Ancestral as a card to remove, too, though if they don't already have it in hand.

[Marske]

@sean1i0,
I don't tutor it against Tezzeret, I'm not even sure if I'd board one in (didn't face the matchup) because TPS is naturally geared towards beating Tezz. I don't board in the Confidants against them as well, unless they are running Arcane Lab. I ran the single Sacrament to have an edge vs Vroman Oath and the mirror as it really shines there.

If you do board them and manage to resolve it, I wouldn't grab a counterspell like ever, it's pointless, you can win even if they have counters (it's called Minds Desire) it would be something like this: Time Vault, Tezzeret, Robot. Leaving them with no kill and all the counter spells in the world means that even if you go into the long game, you can just take your time to setup a hand with 4 FoW / Duress (or whatever) and win without having to worry that they will win first. You can easily negate Mindbreak trap (if they run it) as you won't have to be in any rush. Also, most likely you've won game 1 so even if they end up stalling you long enough you should be able to steal the match.